1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Overall, the market is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in demand [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The mainland supply remains high, traditional demand is weak, and there is short - term pressure, but the long - term pressure may ease. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound [2]. Natural Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are falling, but considering Thailand's approaching low - production period, the raw material decline may be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but its own driving force is limited. Styrene is strong due to export and device issues, driving up the pure benzene price. Strategies include focusing on short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be stable and weak, and PVC is under pressure but has limited downward space due to cost support [5]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with supply remaining high and demand being cautious [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and glass is also expected to weaken, both can be treated bearishly [7]. Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices are affected by news, and the upside space is limited. Brent crude may oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [8]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in some contracts and inventories. The downstream PDH开工率 has decreased [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be bullish in the medium term. PTA, short - fiber, and polyester bottle - chip follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory significantly [13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Futures Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined, with L2605 down 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices, such as华东PP拉丝现货价格 and华北LLDPE现货价格, decreased [1]. - **Spreads**: PP59价差 increased by 13.16%, while LP05价差 decreased by 18.50% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48%, and PP装置开工率 increased slightly by 0.20% [1]. Methanol - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 declined, and most spot prices also decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 0.73%, while methanol港口库存 decreased by 6.63% [2]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased significantly by 11.22% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Yunnan国营全乳胶 and other prices declined, such as a 1.27% drop in Yunnan国营全乳胶 [3]. - **Production and开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39%, and the开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, especially the dark - colored rubber [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Brent原油 and other upstream prices changed slightly, while pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends, with styrene being stronger [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 8.3%, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 7.1% [4]. - **开工率**: Asian pure苯开工率 decreased by 0.9%, and国内苯乙烯开工率 remained stable [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Shandong 32%液碱折百价 and华东电石法PVC市场价 decreased [5]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 and PVC总开工率 increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**:液碱华东库存 decreased by 3.2%, and PVC总社会库存 increased by 2.8% [5]. Urea - **Prices**: Urea期货 prices showed different trends, and spot prices were slightly loose [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 reached a high of 200,000 tons, and the厂内库存 decreased by 3.53% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass2605 and玻璃2609 declined, and soda ash2609 decreased slightly [7]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93%, and its weekly production increased by 8.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass厂库 decreased by 5.69%, and soda ash厂库 increased by 4.25% [7]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent原油 decreased by 0.3%, WTI原油 was stable, and SC原油 decreased by 2.81% [8]. - **Spreads**: Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, changed slightly [8]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and other refined oil prices had different changes [8]. LPG - **Prices**: Most LPG futures contracts declined, and the华南现货(民用气) and可交割现货 prices dropped to zero [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比 decreased by 2.77%, and LPG港口库存 decreased by 4.89% [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream主营炼厂开工率 increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - **Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices had minor changes, and some polyester product prices increased slightly [13]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.7%, and PTA开工率 decreased by 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: MEG港口库存 decreased by 0.9% [13].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Summary Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7252 | 7245 | 7265 | 7238 | -15 | -0.21 | 520256 | -3780 | | Plastic 2605 | 7285 | 7289 | 7308 | 7279 | 5 | 0.07 | 38553 | 193 | | Plastic 2609 | 7315 | 7299 | 7322 | 7299 | 0 | 0.00 | 32 | 1 | | PP2601 | 6977 | 6982 | 6996 | 6970 | -10 | -0.14 | 570841 | -10461 | | PP2605 | 7005 | 7017 | 7027 | 7002 | 7 | 0.10 | 67265 | 3640 | | PP2609 | 6977 | 6984 | 6992 | 6975 | 8 | 0.11 | 1051 | 201 | [5] 3. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Linear futures opened lower and oscillated weakly, dampening trading sentiment. Traders offered discounts, and end - users purchased as needed. [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Upstream capacity utilization and production both decreased. [6] - **Demand Side**: The downstream agricultural film industry entered the peak season, but the operating load was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Overall demand was not fully released. The overall operating rate of PP downstream increased, with BOPP and pipes showing a slight month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to have room for recovery. [6] - **Cost Side**: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened. [6] - **Overall Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of both supply and demand recovering. Downstream enterprises are expected to replenish their stocks before the double festivals, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate warmly. [6] 4. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.99%. The inventory at the same time last year was 810,000 tons. [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,130 - 7,450 yuan/ton, 7,210 - 7,700 yuan/ton in East China, and 7,320 - 7,750 yuan/ton in South China. [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6,580 - 6,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories made purchases at low prices, some production enterprises saw increased sales volume, and the willingness to support prices became more prominent. The market trading center moved up slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was fair. [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with some loosening, and some prices decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,740 - 6,860 yuan/ton, 6,750 - 6,930 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,720 - 6,920 yuan/ton in South China. [7] 5. Data Overview - The report also presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [9][15][17]