15 December 2025 | 7:34AM HKT Equity Research Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): Business Sharing Highlights: Long runway for int'l cloud & overseas games growth empowered by AI; Buy We attended Tencent's Business Sharing event, held alongside the PUBG MOBILE eSports Grand Finals, in Thailand on Dec 14 hosted by Tencent's Chief Strategy Officer, Vice President of Tencent Cloud International, Head of LightSpeed Studios (Quantum Studio & Anyplay Studio) and other Games business heads. Key focus areas/topics and take ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Ticker**: 0700.HK - **Quarter**: 3Q25 Key Highlights 1. **Revenue Growth**: Tencent reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb192.869 billion, exceeding expectations by 2% [15][24] 2. **Gaming Performance**: Online games revenue grew by 23% yoy to Rmb63.6 billion, driven by strong domestic and international game performance [15][21] 3. **Advertising Revenue**: Advertising revenue increased by 21% yoy to Rmb36.242 billion, supported by AI-driven marketing services [15][16] 4. **FinTech and Business Services**: Revenue from FinTech and Business Services grew by 10% yoy to Rmb58.174 billion, with healthy growth in consumer loan services and commercial payment activities [19][21] 5. **Operating Profit**: Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% yoy to Rmb72.570 billion, with a gross margin of 56.4%, reflecting a 3.3 percentage point increase yoy [15][19] 6. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Non-IFRS EPS was Rmb7.58, up 19% yoy, surpassing consensus estimates by 6% [15][19] AI and Cloud Initiatives 1. **AI-Driven Growth**: AI initiatives are driving revenue growth, particularly in marketing services, which saw a 21% increase [2][10] 2. **Capex Outlook**: Capital expenditure decreased to Rmb13 billion in 3Q25 from Rmb19 billion in 2Q25, primarily due to foreign chip supply constraints [2][19] 3. **AI Model Development**: Tencent's AI Lab introduced a new Continuous Autoregressive Language Model (CALM), which reduces training and inference compute requirements [10][11] Strategic Focus Areas 1. **Gaming Strategy**: Continued focus on domestic and international gaming strategies, with upcoming launches expected to sustain revenue growth [13][14] 2. **Advertising Technology**: Progress in AI-driven ad tech upgrades and the performance of the new AIM+ automated ad campaign solution [12][14] 3. **Talent Retention**: Emphasis on retaining top talent in AI development to enhance competitive positioning [10][11] Financial Metrics 1. **Deferred Revenue**: Deferred revenue growth slowed to 11% yoy, down from 12% in the previous quarter [2][19] 2. **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash flow increased to Rmb58.5 billion in 3Q25, compared to Rmb43.0 billion in 2Q25 [21] 3. **Net Cash Position**: Net cash reached Rmb102.4 billion by the end of 3Q25, up from Rmb74.6 billion in 2Q25 [21] Risks and Challenges 1. **Industry Competition**: Increased competition in performance-based advertising could impact revenue growth [14][23] 2. **Game Launch Delays**: Potential delays in game launches and regulatory approvals may affect future performance [14][23] 3. **Reinvestment Risks**: Risks associated with reinvestment in AI and cloud initiatives could impact profitability [14][23] Conclusion - Tencent's strong performance in 3Q25, driven by AI and gaming, positions the company favorably for future growth. However, challenges such as competition and regulatory hurdles remain critical considerations for investors [14][23]. The company maintains a Buy rating with a 12-month target price of HK$770, reflecting a potential upside of 17.2% from the current price of HK$657 [24][23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Online Entertainment Sector - **Performance**: Online entertainment has been a significant outperformer year-to-date (YTD) within the China internet sector, driven by robust consumer spending on leisure and favorable investor positioning amid macro uncertainties [2][8] Core Insights - **Earnings Season Expectations**: A mixed Q325 earnings season is anticipated for online entertainment, with potential positive surprises from companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou. NetEase is favored for its revival in evergreen titles and upcoming launches [2][3] - **Gaming Sector Divergence**: Following a strong YTD performance in online gaming, divergence is expected as new game launches from A-share companies are priced in. Preference remains for ADR/H game companies based on new game catalysts and healthy evergreen title portfolios [3][9] - **Advertising Sector**: Slight acceleration in Q3 ad performance is noted, with uncertainty around new tax policies. Companies like Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are expected to outperform due to improvements in adtech and monetization [4][9] - **Media Sector**: Overall quiet results are expected for the online media sector, with a positive outlook on long-form video (LFV) regulation, although its impact may take time to materialize [5][20] Company-Specific Insights - **Bilibili**: - Price target raised to US$37.00 from US$30.00, reflecting a 23.3% increase. The company is expected to benefit from the successful launch of "Escape From Duckrov," which had a peak of 222k concurrent players on Steam [3][14][17] - Q325 estimates remain unchanged, but Q425 game revenue is raised by 5% due to better-than-expected contributions from new titles [13][17] - **NetEase**: - Expected solid Q325 results with game acceleration, particularly with the upcoming global launch of "Where Winds Meet" on November 15 [3][9][10] - **Kuaishou**: - Positive outlook based on fundamental outperformance and AI capabilities, with key focuses on ad revenue guidance and e-commerce outlook [9][10] - **iQiyi**: - Q325 topline expected to be flat QoQ, with ad revenue projected to decline by 3% due to macro conditions. Adjusted net profit estimates lowered by 17-25% [19][20] - **Weibo**: - Negative revisions expected due to slower consumption trends, although limited valuation downside is noted with a projected 8% dividend yield [9][10] Additional Insights - **Short Dramas Growth**: The growth momentum of short dramas is expected to continue, driven by consumer demand for fragmented video content and a flexible business model compared to LFV [8] - **Regulatory Environment**: The recent LFV regulation is seen as a major positive for iQiyi, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][20] Financial Metrics - **Bilibili's Financials**: - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q4 expected to be Rmb862 million, with a margin of 10.4% [13][17] - Total revenues for FY2025 estimated at Rmb30.285 billion, with a YoY growth of 12.9% [17][18] - **iQiyi's Financials**: - Expected non-GAAP operating loss of Rmb25 million for Q325, with a net loss of Rmb135 million [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and expectations for the online entertainment sector and specific companies within it.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China online entertainment industry**, focusing on mobile gaming, online video, and online music sectors. Mobile Gaming Insights - **Overall Market Performance**: Q3 2025 saw a **4% YoY decline** in mobile game grossing due to a high base in 2024, but a **2% QoQ increase**. This is softer than typical Q3 vs Q2 seasonality, attributed to fewer new launches in summer compared to previous years [2][10]. - **Key Players**: - **Tencent**: Achieved a **9% QoQ growth** in grossing, driven by strong performance from **Delta Force** (estimated **Rmb1.5 billion** in September). Other stable titles include **Honor of Kings**, **Peacekeeper Elite**, and **DNF Mobile** [2][9]. - **NetEase**: Reported a **5% QoQ growth** in mobile grossing, with notable contributions from **Eggy Party** and **Where Winds Meet**, although this was partially offset by declines in **Sword of Justice** and **Identity V**. It is noted that only about **40%** of NetEase's reported mobile revenue is tracked, indicating potential revenue from non-app store channels [2][6]. - **Bilibili**: Launched **Escape From Duckrov**, achieving a peak of **222,000 concurrent players**, ranking it as the **5 most played game globally on Steam** [2][6]. Online Video Sector - **Kuaishou** launched **Kling 2.5 Turbo**, which is now the **1** in text-to-video and image-to-video generation, maintaining a cost advantage over competitors like Google's Veo 3 [3][4]. - **iQiyi**: Experienced a **10% MoM/YoY decline** in MAUs but is expected to see low-single-digit QoQ growth in membership revenue for Q3, aided by summer traffic improvements [3][4]. - **Tencent Video** and **Youku** have seen some recent successes with new content releases, while **Mango TV** maintained flat MAUs YoY [3][4]. Online Music Trends - The online music industry saw a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, but time spent remained stable. **TME** (Tencent Music Entertainment) reported a **7% decline** in combined MAUs, with QQ Music and Kugou Music showing significant drops [6][7]. - **NetEase Cloud Music** showed a slight recovery with a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, while **Soda Music** outperformed with a **91% YoY increase** in MAUs, likely benefiting from ByteDance's traffic [6][7]. Future Content Pipeline - Upcoming major content releases include titles from **Tencent Video**, **iQiyi**, **Youku**, and **Mango TV**, with several anticipated to launch in late October and throughout November and December [7][8]. Investment Outlook - The report remains positive on the online entertainment sector, citing: 1. Healthy consumer spending on leisure activities. 2. Supply-side improvements due to a more favorable regulatory environment and innovations in business models [4][5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in content production and the potential for new business models to drive growth in the online entertainment sector [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the online entertainment industry in China.

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) 3Q25E Preview Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Reporting Date**: 3Q25 results to be reported on November 13, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Gaming Sector**: - Anticipated strong performance driven by titles such as Delta Force and Peacekeeper Elite - Delta Force's daily active users (DAU) surpassed 30 million in September 2025, supported by promotional activities [3][12] - Tencent maintained a dominant position in mobile gaming, capturing 8 out of the top 10 grossing mobile games in China by the end of September 2025 [3][11] - **Advertising Sector**: - Marketing services revenue expected to sustain growth at approximately 20% year-over-year, aided by AI-powered ad technology and the growth of video accounts and mini shops [1][2] Financial Projections - **3Q25 Revenue Forecast**: - Total revenues projected to increase by 13.5% year-over-year to RMB 189.7 billion, with non-GAAP net profit expected to rise by 11% year-over-year to RMB 66.4 billion [2][10] - Online gaming revenues anticipated to grow by 17% year-over-year to RMB 60.6 billion, with domestic and international games expected to grow by 15% and 22% respectively [2][55] - **4Q25 Outlook**: - Potential offset of soft gaming seasonality by deferred revenues from previous quarters and marketing services revenue benefiting from e-commerce festivals [1][2] Core Financial Metrics - **Earnings Summary**: - 2025E Net Profit: RMB 255.3 billion, with a diluted EPS of RMB 27.596 [5][10] - Projected growth rates for sales revenue and core NPAT are 13.0% and 14.6% respectively for 2025 [10][55] Notable Game Titles and Performance - **Top Mobile Games**: - Honour of Kings (HoK) remains the top-grossing mobile game, followed by Delta Force, which has recently surpassed Peacekeeper Elite in grossing [12][17] - Delta Force's MAU reached 49.4 million in August 2025, indicating strong user engagement [20][21] - **New Game Releases**: - Tencent released four new titles in 3Q25, including Valorant Mobile, which performed well in downloads and grossing [48][51] - A solid pipeline of 96 mobile games is expected to support future revenue growth [52][55] AI and Technology Developments - **AI Integration**: - Tencent's Hunyuan 3D model has improved modeling accuracy by three times, with over 40% of new code generated by AI [4][1] - Continued growth in Tencent Cloud's international business, maintaining high double-digit growth over the past three years [4] Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: Maintain Buy - **Target Price**: HK$735, representing a potential upside of 12.8% from the current price of HK$651.50 [6][10] Conclusion - Tencent is positioned for a solid performance in 3Q25, driven by strong gaming revenues and advertising growth, with a robust pipeline of new games and advancements in AI technology. The company is expected to continue its leadership in the gaming sector while capitalizing on advertising opportunities.

Summary of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD 683.3 billion Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Revenue**: Reported at RMB 184.5 billion, beating consensus expectations by 3% [16] - **Growth Rate**: Year-over-year revenue growth of 15% [16] - **Operating Profit**: Non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 69.2 billion, also beating expectations by 4% [16] - **Net Profit**: Non-IFRS net income of RMB 63.1 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% [16] Segment Performance 1. **Domestic Games (DG)**: - Revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, driven by titles like Delta Force and Honor of Kings [17] - Delta Force's daily active users (DAU) exceeded 20 million in July 2025 [17] 2. **International Games (IG)**: - Revenue surged by 35% year-over-year, driven by Supercell's titles and PUBG Mobile [18] - Clash Royale's gross billings reached a seven-year high in June 2025 [18] 3. **Marketing Services**: - Revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, supported by AI-driven improvements [21] - Video Account, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search ads grew by 50%, 50%, and 60% year-over-year, respectively [21] 4. **Fintech and Business Services (FBS)**: - Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, driven by consumer loans and commercial payments [22] - Total commercial payment volume resumed year-over-year growth in 2Q25 [22] Growth Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: Increased for 2025-2027, with domestic games up by 2-7%, international games by 3-5%, and ad revenue by 2-6% [1] - **Target Price**: Raised to HKD 690 from HKD 650, implying an upside of approximately 18% [1][4] Operational Efficiency - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Total GPM improved to 57%, beating expectations by 2 percentage points [16] - **Cost Management**: General and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue remained flat at 6.3% [25] Shareholder Returns - **Share Buybacks**: Tencent has repurchased HKD 40 billion worth of shares year-to-date, with a commitment of at least HKD 80 billion for 2025 [49][47] - **Dividends**: Planned dividend payments of HKD 41 billion in 2025 [52] Risks and Challenges - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential challenges in obtaining monetization approvals for games and regulatory headwinds in the internet sector [52] - **Market Conditions**: A deeper macroeconomic slowdown could impact advertising budgets [52] Additional Insights - **AI Investments**: Continued benefits from AI investments are expected to drive sustainable growth in advertising and operational efficiency [8] - **Emerging Titles**: Delta Force is on track to become an evergreen title, with the upcoming launch of Valorant Mobile in China being closely watched [8] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with significant growth across its core segments. The company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strategic investments in AI and a robust pipeline of game titles. However, it faces potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic risks that could impact its performance. The raised target price reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenues for Q2 reached approximately RMB 1,570 million, showing an increase both year over year and quarter over quarter [20][21] - Live streaming revenues stabilized with a slight sequential increase to RMB 1,150 million, while game-related services, advertising, and other revenues grew to RMB 414 million, accounting for 26.4% of total net revenues [20][22] - Non-GAAP net income was RMB 48 million, marking the sixth consecutive profitable quarter [21][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Game-related services, advertising, and other revenues increased by 34.1% year over year, reflecting strong demand and deepened cooperation with Tencent and other gaming companies [20][22][55] - Gross billing from game-related services increased by 90% year over year, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [9][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of domestic paying users remained flat at 4.4 million, excluding those who made in-game purchases through game distribution [20] - The company reached tens of millions of monthly active users internationally, indicating growth in overseas markets [16][44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deepen its engagement in the gaming industry, strengthen collaborations with industry partners, and expand its business boundaries [18] - A focus on AI initiatives is evident, with plans to enhance user experience through AI-powered features and services [17][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth trajectory of total net revenues, driven by strong growth in game-related services and advertising [55] - The company expects live streaming revenues to remain steady while game-related services will be the main driver for future growth [55] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 22.8 million shares for a total consideration of USD 75.4 million as part of its share repurchase program [27] - Special cash dividends of approximately USD 340 million were distributed during the second quarter [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on game-related services business - Management highlighted the expansion of collaborations with game companies, increasing the portfolio of jointly distributed games to over 300 titles, and a 90% year-over-year increase in game-related services [31][34] Question: Details on the Delta Force event - The inaugural Delta Force Diamond Champions showcased advanced streaming technology and offered viewers a chance to win in-game items, enhancing the overall experience [38][40] Question: Progress on overseas operations - The company is reaching tens of millions of monthly active users internationally and is well-positioned to capture opportunities in the growing overseas game-related services market [42][44] Question: Future plans on AI development - AI is becoming embedded in operations, with initiatives like the AI agent Hu Xiaoai enhancing user experience during esports streams and the Huya I Superbot providing virtual sparring and emotional companionship [48][50] Question: Overall trend of live streaming business and revenue expectations - Live streaming revenue is expected to remain stable, while game-related services are anticipated to drive overall revenue growth in the second half of the year [53][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the eCommerce sector, with a recommendation for a dual-pronged stock picking approach focusing on domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive games [2][12]. Core Insights - April online retail growth was healthy at +6% year-over-year (yoy), consistent with the first quarter of 2025, despite softer overall retail sales [2][8]. - Anticipation of strong online retail growth in May due to the front-loading of the 618 shopping festival sales, which began mid-May [2][9]. - Positive outlook for the second quarter from eCommerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, with estimated revenue growth of +10% yoy for Alibaba and +14% yoy for JD in June [2][12]. - Resumption of direct air-shipment SKUs on the Temu US platform following the reduction of US trade tariffs on China [2][11]. Summary by Sections Online Retail Performance - April online retail goods GMV grew by +6% yoy, driven by strong performance in the consumption trade-in category [8][33]. - Overall retail sales growth was +5.1% yoy in April, below expectations, with notable growth in appliances at +39% yoy and communication devices at +20% yoy [8][32]. 618 Shopping Festival Insights - Key observations from the 618 shopping festival include extended sales periods, simplified discount structures, and collaboration with content platforms [9][12]. - Major platforms initiated sales earlier than the previous year, indicating a strategic shift to enhance consumer engagement [9]. eCommerce Platform Performance - Both Alibaba and JD reported strong first-quarter results, with Alibaba's CMR and Taobao-Tmall Group EBITA growth exceeding expectations [12][36]. - JD's management lifted its full-year growth targets, indicating confidence in its operational leverage and food delivery initiatives [12][36]. Mobile App Engagement - Total time spent on China's top mobile apps grew by +6% yoy in April, with eCommerce and gaming categories showing positive trends [2][13]. - JD's engagement growth was particularly strong, attributed to its aggressive food delivery initiatives [13][14]. Cross-Border eCommerce Trends - Temu has gradually resumed its full-entrusted direct air shipment model for select SKUs on its US site, following tariff reductions [11][12]. - The report anticipates further shifts in Temu's business model towards local warehouses for US and European markets [11][12].

Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (700 HK) - **Sector**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: HKD 4,060,528 million (USD 523,190 million) [14][10] Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Context - **Tariff Impact**: Tencent has immaterial direct revenue exposure to US tariffs, indicating limited financial impact from trade tensions [2][10] - **Consumer Recovery**: Potential uncertainty regarding consumer recovery in China may affect payment and advertising businesses, but ongoing adtech enhancements are expected to buffer this impact [2][3] Financial Performance and Projections - **1Q25 Expectations**: Revenue and non-IFRS operating profit are expected to grow by 11% and 13% year-on-year, respectively. Domestic and international games revenue is projected to grow by 19% and 18% year-on-year [4][10] - **Game Performance**: Domestic titles showed growth in Daily Active Users (DAU) during Chinese New Year. CrossFire Mobile and Peacekeeper Elite reported strong year-on-year gross billings growth in 1Q25 [2][3] - **Buyback Commitment**: Tencent's commitment to a HKD 80 billion buyback in 2025 is expected to provide valuation support alongside strong free cash flow generation capabilities [2][3] Investor Sentiment and Feedback - **Quality Preference**: Investors are increasingly seeking quality investments amid volatile market conditions, with Tencent being a top choice due to its defensive game portfolio and buyback commitment [3][10] - **Yuanbao DAU**: While the DAU growth for Yuanbao has slowed, improvements in retention rates are encouraging. The company plans to enhance features to engage users further [3][20] Financial Metrics and Ratios - **Earnings Projections**: EPS is projected to grow from CNY 23.67 in 2024 to CNY 36.96 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 17.7x to 11.3x over the same period [6][12] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 1.0% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2027 [6][12] - **Free Cash Flow**: Projected free cash flow equity is expected to grow from CNY 162,676 million in 2025 to CNY 212,421 million in 2027 [11][12] Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: Maintain Buy rating with a target price of HKD 630, indicating a potential upside of 42.8% from the current share price of HKD 441.20 [4][14] Additional Important Insights - **Game Pipeline**: Upcoming titles such as Delta Force (mobile release on April 22, 2025) and Goddess of Victory (China release in 2Q25) are expected to contribute positively to future growth [3][10] - **Market Share**: Tencent's domestic mobile games market share fluctuated but remained strong, with a notable 54% share in January 2025 [32][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Tencent's resilience in the gaming sector, financial projections, and strategic initiatives amidst market uncertainties.

Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent reported a fourth-quarter revenue of 172.4 billion yuan ($23.9 billion), exceeding the expected 168.9 billion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year increase [9] - Profit attributable to equity holders was 51.3 billion yuan, surpassing the expected 46.03 billion yuan, reflecting a 90% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [9] Group 2: Gaming Revenue - Domestic games revenue in China rose 23% year-on-year to 33.2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, attributed to a low base from the previous year and growth in popular games like Honour of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite [2] - International games revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 16 billion yuan, driven by Tencent's expansion efforts overseas, particularly with games like PUBG Mobile [3] Group 3: AI Developments - Tencent has launched its Hunyuan3D-2.0 model, capable of converting text or images into 3D graphics, and previously introduced Turbo S, an AI model for rapid user query responses [4] - The company's AI initiatives are part of a broader competitive landscape among China's tech giants, with rapid advancements from companies like Alibaba and Baidu [5][6] - Tencent is integrating its AI models, including its in-house chatbot Yuanbao, with technologies from rivals like DeepSeek to enhance products such as WeChat's search features [7]