新华财经上海2月27日电（记者杨溢仁）随着丙午马年春节假期落幕，本周债券市场正式步入节后交易 时段。 2月上旬，在央行流动性的呵护下，10年期国债收益率一度下破1.8%关键点位，展现出较强韧性；春节 后，市场则步入了多空因素交织的博弈格局，超2.7万亿元的公开市场操作到期、税期与跨月重叠等利 空因素，与央行维稳、机构配置需求旺盛等利好因素相互角力，利率债市场呈现出了鲜明的阶段性震荡 特征。 窄幅博弈显分化 首先，就流动性层面考虑，央行的呵护意图尤为明确，这为资金面的平稳跨月提供了坚实保障。来自天 风证券的研究观点指出，节后资金分层情况虽会短暂加剧，但核心支撑在于央行维稳姿态坚定，且月末 财政支出有望逐步提速，资金面不存在持续收紧的风险。 孙彬彬亦进一步强调，当"春节后"与"两会前"形成叠加，流动性的惯性规律是边际宽松，央行大概率将 持续保持呵护姿态，不会让资金面出现大幅波动。华西证券研究所首席经济学家刘郁更明确预计，若央 行维持当前呵护姿态，那么节后R001将在1.35%至1.45%区间运行，R007料下行至1.50%至1.60%左右， 资金面宽松格局不会发生改变。 其次，机构配置需求的持续释放，也将成为支撑 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market style tends to exhibit defensive characteristics at the end of the year, with large-cap value stocks outperforming, while the small-cap style represented by the CSI 1000 faces pressure [1] - Institutional investors are likely to adopt a conservative investment approach due to year-end performance assessments, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [1] - As the market enters the dense disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts in January, earnings uncertainty becomes a key concern, prompting funds to flow towards more stable large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 219 billion yuan last week, with upcoming maturities including 4.575 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3 billion yuan in MLF [2] - Money market rates are declining, with short and long-term government bond yields also decreasing, while the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has expanded [2] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of financing funds amounting to 3.42 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Fund Flows - High net inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with significant net subscriptions for the A500 ETF [3] - The information technology ETF saw substantial net subscriptions, while the military industry ETF experienced notable redemptions [3] - The highest net subscription was for the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF, while the highest net redemption was for the Fuguo CSI Military Leaders ETF [3] Group 4: Overseas Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll and CPI significantly fell below expectations, with the overall CPI rising 2.74% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.06% [3] - The core CPI also rose 2.63% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 3.03%, indicating inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's target level [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese financial market**, focusing on **monetary policy**, **interest rates**, and **economic recovery**. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There has been a **decline in long-term interest rates** since December 2024, with recent adjustments indicating a market reaction to anticipated interest rate cuts [2][8] - The **People's Bank of China (PBOC)** conducted a **balance sheet reduction** of **1.6 trillion yuan** in 2024, raising concerns about liquidity tightening, but overall monetary policy remains accommodative with a net liquidity injection of **400 billion yuan** [2] - The **short-term interest rates** have been rising since early 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment compared to 2024 [3][4] Economic Indicators and Risks - The **ten-year government bond yield** has shown a significant decline driven by interest rate cut expectations, with a noted **100 basis points** drop in implied future rate cuts [8] - A rapid decline in long-term interest rates poses **financial risks**, including potential instability in safe assets and losses in financial institution margins [9] - The **current economic environment** is characterized by **moderate inflation** and weak demand, with signs of semi-inflation emerging since September 2024 [14] Construction and Fiscal Policy - The **construction industry** is experiencing improved funding conditions, with state-owned enterprises showing moderate growth in orders and revenue [15] - Fiscal policy has been proactive, with **net financing of government bonds** reaching a peak in January 2025, indicating strong government support for economic recovery [16] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has shown a mixed performance, with strong growth in entertainment during the Spring Festival but a decline in retail and dining sales compared to the previous year [17] Challenges in Monetary Policy - The balance between **growth stabilization** and **risk prevention** in monetary policy is constrained by high risk premiums, with ineffective transmission to the real economy [18][19] - Traditional monetary policy has limitations in reducing risk premiums, as it primarily affects risk-free rates rather than directly influencing investor risk preferences [20] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that long-term government bond yields will stabilize as liquidity conditions shift from loose to tight, necessitating a careful approach to monetary policy [12] - The potential for more effective methods to reduce high risk premiums includes structural monetary policies and unconventional easing measures, although their effectiveness may be limited in the current Chinese context [21] Additional Important Content - The **relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates** has been affected by various factors, including market demand for safe assets and adjustments in institutional investment strategies [10][11] - The **CPI and PPI** have not yet shown a synchronized recovery, indicating that the overall economic recovery requires further observation and support [17]