2025年，A股市场呈现全面上行格局，主要股指累计涨幅均超10%。成长型板块表现尤为突出，创业板指、 北证50及科创50指数全年涨幅均超过30%。结 构性行情特征明显，科技与资源类板块在全年行情中表现居前，光模块（CPO）指数全年上涨超过180%，光芯片、覆铜板、光通信及光电路交换机等指 数涨幅均超过100%。同时，稀有金属、铜产业及稀土相关指数表现活跃，成为2025全年热门主线。 1.3 A股风格指数表现 市场篇 1.1 A股主要股指表现 2025年度A股主要股指均呈上涨态势。创业板指领涨，累计涨幅达49.57%，北证50、科创50指数累计涨幅分别为38.80%、35.92%，深证成指、万得全A、 中证1000指数累计涨幅均超20%，分别为29.87%、27.65%、27.49%，上证指数、沪深300、上证50指数累计涨幅均超10%。 1.2 A股行业表现 在Wind二级行业分类的35个行业中，2025年度共有31个行业录得上涨。有色金属行业涨幅居首，累计涨幅达92.20%；硬件设备、工业贸易与综合行业涨 幅居前，分别累计上涨62.39%、54.65%。日常消费零售行业表现垫底，累计下跌6.42%；电信服务 ...

12月23日，离岸人民币对美元率先升破7.02关口，在岸人民币对美元升破7.03关口，日内上涨近百点。两者均创下自2024年10月以来14个月新高。 受益方则集中在两大领域。其一是"负债美元化"行业，典型代表是航空业。航空公司拥有巨额的美元负债用以购买飞机，人民币升值将带来大幅的汇兑收 益，显著减轻其财务负担并改善利润表。其二是"成本进口型"行业，如造纸（依赖进口纸浆）、基础化工（依赖进口原油、矿石）等，人民币升值将直接降 低其原材料采购成本，提升盈利空间。 超越具体的资金与盈利测算，人民币升值的心理影响同样不容小觑。在一个有效的市场中，汇率是宏观经济的晴雨表。人民币的稳步走强，向市场传递了关 于经济稳定、政策有效和国际资本认可的积极信号，有助于从根本上提振全市场的风险偏好。 从市场风格来看，升值环境往往更有利于"核心资产"的表现。大盘价值风格因其与宏观经济关联度更高、且多为外资配置重点，可能相对占优。同时，对利 率敏感的金融、地产板块也可能因汇率走强缓解资本外流压力、改善流动性预期而间接受益。 需要明确的是，单日升破关口的意义更多在于心理层面和方向指引。对于A股市场而言，真正产生深远影响的是人民币汇率能否形 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market style tends to exhibit defensive characteristics at the end of the year, with large-cap value stocks outperforming, while the small-cap style represented by the CSI 1000 faces pressure [1] - Institutional investors are likely to adopt a conservative investment approach due to year-end performance assessments, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [1] - As the market enters the dense disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts in January, earnings uncertainty becomes a key concern, prompting funds to flow towards more stable large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 219 billion yuan last week, with upcoming maturities including 4.575 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3 billion yuan in MLF [2] - Money market rates are declining, with short and long-term government bond yields also decreasing, while the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has expanded [2] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of financing funds amounting to 3.42 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Fund Flows - High net inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with significant net subscriptions for the A500 ETF [3] - The information technology ETF saw substantial net subscriptions, while the military industry ETF experienced notable redemptions [3] - The highest net subscription was for the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF, while the highest net redemption was for the Fuguo CSI Military Leaders ETF [3] Group 4: Overseas Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll and CPI significantly fell below expectations, with the overall CPI rising 2.74% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.06% [3] - The core CPI also rose 2.63% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 3.03%, indicating inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's target level [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [3]

股指期货|年度报告 分析师： 项麒睿 心驱动力在于"抢出口"预期带来的充裕流动性。回顾 2025 年，市场整体 确实呈现"N"型走势，并且突破震荡格局，但也存在一些因素超出了我们 年初的预期：一方面，"抢出口"趋势降温后，我国出口展现了超预期的 强劲韧性，另一方面，企业盈利的显著修复时点也比预想中有所后移。 展望 2026 年，市场逻辑预计将发生关键转换，从流动性驱动转向盈利 修复驱动。国内"建设强大国内市场"的战略调整与"反内卷"政策，正 致力于从根源上改善内需与通缩预期。多项领先指标共同预示 PPI 有望步 入上行通道，企业利润修复可期，这将为市场奠定基本面基石并推动估值 消化，但修复强度或将弱于 2021 年。与此同时，尽管上半年出口可能面临 高基数压力，但经常性账户仍将呈现较强韧性，低利率环境下的"存款搬 家"趋势，以及美元信用弱化背景下跨境资金压力的缓和，有望继续营造 相对友善的资金环境。随着驱动力的切换，盈利确定性高、估值具备吸引 力的大盘价值风格短期来看优势凸显，市场风格短期或延续再平衡。中长 期来看，盈利修复机遇将成为 2026 年 A 股市场的关键主线。 相关研究报告： 盈风聚势启新程 证监 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a pullback, with only about 50 out of over 1300 ETFs closing higher, and 6 of these ETFs rising by 1% or more. Financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs showed relative resilience [1] - In the cross-border ETF segment, two Brazilian ETFs and one S&P Consumer ETF led the market in terms of gains [1] ETF Performance - Notably, several ETFs that rose against the market trend saw significant increases in trading volume. The S&P Consumer ETF (159529) had a turnover rate of 199.92%, with a trading volume nearing 2 billion yuan, four times that of the previous day. The Smart Driving ETF (516520) also saw its trading volume increase to approximately seven times that of the previous day [2] - On December 16, financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs performed well, with multiple products ranking among the top gainers. The financial technology ETFs linked to the CSI Financial Technology Index saw over half of their constituent stocks close in the green, with notable gains from companies like Chuangshi Technology (300941) and Cuiwei Co. (603123) [4] Fund Flows - On December 15, despite the market pullback, ETFs experienced a net inflow of approximately 6.7 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs attracting significant capital. Several ETFs linked to the CSI A500 Index ranked among the top for net inflows, with three A500 ETFs collectively receiving over 13.5 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [3][9] - The A500 ETF from Southern Fund (159352) led with a net inflow of 3.915 billion yuan on December 15, significantly outpacing other products [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The gold stock ETFs faced a sharp decline on December 16, with the largest drop exceeding 4%. Six out of the top ten ETFs with the largest declines were gold-related, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of key economic data releases [7] - The CSI A500 Index has over 280 public funds linked to it, with more than 80 asset management firms involved, totaling over 240 billion yuan in assets. Over 80% of this is held in ETF products, with 40 ETFs exceeding 210 billion yuan in total assets [10] Upcoming Products - On December 19, Huatai-PB Fund will launch the Sci-Tech Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETF, adding to the growing list of innovative ETF products in the market [13]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 现在低迷的品种,可能会成为未来某个 阶段领涨的品种，只是这需要有足够的 耐心。 杜鹃不啼,则待之啼。 皿以以下リ） ←Ｖム▽十人にリソ皿 以 ハイ 市。很少有普涨型牛市。 因为有结构性牛市的特点，不能指望一 次牛市所有品种都到高估。 但上涨少的品种，也不用担心，它们可 能在未来某一轮行情中，会遇到上涨。 例如2015年是小盘股的牛市，之后的 2016-2017年是大盘价值风格领涨; 2019-2021年是大盘成长领涨。小盘股 在这段时间里都没有太强，一直到2025 年,小盘又变成强势品种。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 另外，没到高估，也不是说没有收益。 即伊—卢左紅汁 ...

12月11日早盘，国证自由现金流指数震荡上行，现涨约0.5%，成分股亚翔集成、捷佳伟创、模塑科 技、海陆重工等领涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）近20日净流入16.48 亿元，资金抢筹特征显著。 自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数， 经流动性、行业、ROE稳定性筛选后，选取自由现金流为正且占比高的股票，指数质地高，抗风险能力 强，适合底仓配置，满足长线投资配置需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为0.05%，均 为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 每日经济新闻 招商证券研报表示，近期出台的政策集中在资本市场与消费政策两个领域，建议重点关注促内需政策、 新兴产业政策与重大项目开展情况。从过往经验来看，12月末至次年一季度末是险资传统重要配置窗口 期，前期调整的红利板块有望重新获得关注，风格上更推荐大盘风格。 ...

12月4日午后，A股市场涨跌分化，自由现金流ETF（159201）小幅调整，持仓股西部矿业、太龙股份、 林州重机等领涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159210）近19天获得连续资金净流 入，合计"吸金"20.72亿元，最新规模达75.75亿元，创成立以来新高。 临近岁末，国投证券复盘了2000年至今A股在岁末（12月）年初（次年1月月）的大盘走势和指数演绎 情况，整体而言，岁末年初爆发行情的可能性较大，近十年中，仅有三年的岁末年初没有行情，而从主 要指数的表现上看，岁末年初行情大盘强于小盘，价值风格胜率高。 自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数， 经流动性、行业、ROE稳定性筛选后，选取自由现金流为正且占比高的股票，指数质地高，抗风险能力 强，适合底仓配置，满足长线投资配置需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为0.05%，均 为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US is experiencing further short-term credit easing, but long-term resistance is expected to increase [2][3] - The driving force behind China's price recovery is strengthening, with greater momentum for RMB appreciation as US credit easing continues [3][8] - If the US maintains its credit easing, it may lead to increased inflationary pressures overseas, favoring large-cap value stocks in the Chinese market [3][8] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 5.23% in November [11] - The industrial profits in China showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, down 27.1 percentage points from September, indicating a challenging economic environment [8] - The report notes that while most sectors declined, consumer sectors showed resilience, with specific industries like fisheries and steel raw materials outperforming [28][32]

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - In October, the major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by over 5% [2] - A total of 77 new funds were issued in October, with a total issuance scale of 631.70 billion yuan, and the issuance of index funds accounted for 170.46 billion yuan [2] - The average performance of equity funds and QDII funds declined, while commodity funds saw the largest average increase of 4.61% [3] Group 2: Fund Performance - The large-cap value style outperformed the growth style in October, with a rise of 2.62%, while the small-cap growth style experienced the largest decline of approximately 3.22% [3] - The average decline for mini funds (500 million to 1 billion yuan) was the smallest at 1.79%, with a positive return ratio of 28.87% [3] - The overall position of active equity funds increased to 79.94% as of October 31, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 3: ETF Market Overview - In October, the net inflow of funds into ETFs was 137.51 billion yuan, showing a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous month [3] - The top five ETFs with the highest net inflow included gold ETFs and securities ETFs, while the top outflows were from the ChiNext ETF and the CSI A500 ETF [3] Group 4: Industry Research - Light Industry Manufacturing - In the first three quarters, the light industry manufacturing sector reported revenue of 4,638.61 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.15% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 20.85% [9] - The home goods sector saw a revenue increase of 3.84% and a net profit increase of 2.78%, with a net profit margin of 8.27% [9] - The packaging and printing sector experienced significant growth, with revenue and profit increasing by 10.34% and 10.16% respectively, although the gross profit margin decreased by 1.29 percentage points [10] Group 5: Industry Research - Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with decreases of 2.22% and 9.75% respectively [10] - The apparel and home textile sector managed to reverse a five-quarter decline in net profit, achieving a year-on-year growth of 0.43% in the third quarter [10] - The investment strategy suggests that the "old-for-new" policy is showing effects, and the upcoming consumption boost from major holidays may support demand in the home goods sector [11]