Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - On Tuesday, the Shanghai rubber futures showed an upward trend. The strengthening of crude oil prices supported chemical products. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in a seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually ceasing. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. After the holiday, the demand side is expected to see a recovery in production, with stable production expected for all - steel tires. The rubber price is expected to remain strong [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of NR, RU, and BR were 17030, 13795, and 13160 respectively, with price increases of 715, 615, and 570, and percentage increases of 4.38%, 4.67%, and 4.53% respectively. The RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR spreads increased by 100, 145, and 45 respectively [2] - **Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volumes of NR, RU, and BR were 245962, 66703, and 74457 respectively. The open interests were 162068, 47522, and 54410 respectively. The changes in open interests were 21833, - 263, and - 457 respectively [2] - **Basis Changes**: The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU were - 230, - 1685, and 2070 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 165, - 985, and 2185 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16700, 16800, and 16700 respectively, with percentage increases of 4.05%, 4.02%, and 4.38% respectively. The prices of smoke - sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 19100, with a 3.24% increase. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15345 and 16750 respectively, with percentage increases of 0.10% and 4.36% respectively [2] - **Downstream Spot**: The current prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - lump, and Thai latex were 68.79, 57.87, and 67 (in Thai baht per kilogram) respectively, with percentage increases of 2.41%, 1.81%, and 1.52% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a continuation of a loose market environment, characterized by increased production and imports against weak demand and high inventory levels. Price expectations suggest that rubber prices may continue to fluctuate downwards, with a potential further contraction in the RU-NR price spread [1][25]. Supply Side - From January to April, China's natural rubber production increased by 26.15% year-on-year, currently in a seasonal growth phase. However, frequent rainfall in domestic production areas has delayed the concentration of raw material supply, leading to strong raw material prices as processing plants rush to collect materials. Improvement in weather conditions is anticipated to alleviate the tight supply situation [4]. - In early May, Thailand announced a one-month delay in tapping, but production has since resumed, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39% from January to April. Vietnam's production also saw a year-on-year increase of 2.10% during the same period. Although initial raw material output is slow due to weather disturbances, entering the peak production season may strengthen raw material supply expectations [4]. Demand Side - As of May 22, the operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.74%, up 2.53% month-on-month but down 6.35% year-on-year. The operating rate for all-steel tires was 62.09%, up 2.21% month-on-month but down 4.11% year-on-year. The decline in rubber prices has led to increased caution among downstream producers, with only essential purchases being maintained. Despite a slight increase in production and sales of passenger vehicles, overall demand growth remains slow, and tire companies are facing high finished product inventories, which may lead to a downward adjustment in future operating rates [15][25]. - According to customs data, tire export figures for April showed a month-on-month decline, with all-steel tire exports down 5.43% and semi-steel tire exports down 10.39%. Although previous US-China negotiations had a positive impact on the market, strict tariff policies on Southeast Asian regions may continue to challenge tire export trade [23]. Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation remains loose, with expectations of increased natural rubber supply and high inventory levels in downstream tire companies, leading to a strong likelihood of downward adjustments in operating rates. The slow growth in terminal demand makes it difficult for upward price transmission, suggesting that rubber prices may continue to experience downward fluctuations, with the RU-NR price spread likely to contract [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber (RU and NR) is neutral [3] - The investment rating for butadiene rubber (BR) is also neutral [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply of domestic natural rubber is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is not expected to have significant highlights. However, the improvement in tire factory production profits and the easing of Sino - US tariffs have alleviated the previous pessimistic demand expectations, resulting in less prominent supply - demand contradictions [3] - The price of butadiene rubber may continue to be strong in the short term. The short - term supply of butadiene is tight, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has increased. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has deteriorated, the downstream tire demand expectation has improved, and the upstream raw material price is firm [4][5] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU主力合约 closed at 15,235 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR主力合约 closed at 13,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton. The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 12,650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton [1] Tire Industry Situation - Most tire enterprises are operating stably, with capacity utilization at a normal level. Some enterprises' operations are not as good as before. Enterprises have introduced certain price - concession policies this month, but the sales rhythm is still slow, and overall sales have not increased significantly. Flexible production control may become the norm to relieve inventory growth [1] Upstream Device News - Dalian Hengli's 140,000 - ton/year butadiene plant stopped for maintenance on May 14, lasting about 30 days [1] Related Product Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On May 14, 2025, RU basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between RU主力 and mixed rubber was 315 yuan/ton (+90), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,222 yuan/ton (+225.71), NR basis was 61.00 yuan/ton (- 42.00); full - latex was 15,150 yuan/ton (+250), mixed rubber was 14,920 yuan/ton (+150), 3L spot was 16,200 yuan/ton (+150). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+20), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 1,050 yuan/ton (+100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,020 yuan/ton (- 250) [2] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 72.09 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai latex was 61.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.00), Thai cup lump was 54.05 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 7.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.40) [2] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.88% (+18.19%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.21% (+24.50) [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,355,527 tons (+613), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 618,693 tons (+4,506), the RU futures inventory was 200,500 tons (- 270), and the NR futures inventory was 74,692 tons (+3,527) [2] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On May 14, 2025, BR basis was 220 yuan/ton (+425), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 11,100 yuan/ton (+800), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,700 yuan/ton (+400), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 12,650 yuan/ton (+550), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+500), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 238 yuan/ton (+450) [3] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.74% (+2.86%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,470 tons (- 430), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,650 tons (- 1,000) [3]