Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed lower, with coking coal futures main contract hitting the limit down [1] - Glass prices fell over 8%, polysilicon dropped over 7%, and silicon manganese and soda ash declined over 6% [1] - Other commodities such as manganese silicon and coking coal fell over 4%, while hot-rolled steel and PVC dropped more than 3% [1] Group 2 - Natural rubber and caustic soda decreased over 2%, while Shanghai zinc and eggs fell over 1% [1] - A few commodities, including asphalt and crude oil, experienced slight increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a continuation of a loose market environment, characterized by increased production and imports against weak demand and high inventory levels. Price expectations suggest that rubber prices may continue to fluctuate downwards, with a potential further contraction in the RU-NR price spread [1][25]. Supply Side - From January to April, China's natural rubber production increased by 26.15% year-on-year, currently in a seasonal growth phase. However, frequent rainfall in domestic production areas has delayed the concentration of raw material supply, leading to strong raw material prices as processing plants rush to collect materials. Improvement in weather conditions is anticipated to alleviate the tight supply situation [4]. - In early May, Thailand announced a one-month delay in tapping, but production has since resumed, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39% from January to April. Vietnam's production also saw a year-on-year increase of 2.10% during the same period. Although initial raw material output is slow due to weather disturbances, entering the peak production season may strengthen raw material supply expectations [4]. Demand Side - As of May 22, the operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.74%, up 2.53% month-on-month but down 6.35% year-on-year. The operating rate for all-steel tires was 62.09%, up 2.21% month-on-month but down 4.11% year-on-year. The decline in rubber prices has led to increased caution among downstream producers, with only essential purchases being maintained. Despite a slight increase in production and sales of passenger vehicles, overall demand growth remains slow, and tire companies are facing high finished product inventories, which may lead to a downward adjustment in future operating rates [15][25]. - According to customs data, tire export figures for April showed a month-on-month decline, with all-steel tire exports down 5.43% and semi-steel tire exports down 10.39%. Although previous US-China negotiations had a positive impact on the market, strict tariff policies on Southeast Asian regions may continue to challenge tire export trade [23]. Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation remains loose, with expectations of increased natural rubber supply and high inventory levels in downstream tire companies, leading to a strong likelihood of downward adjustments in operating rates. The slow growth in terminal demand makes it difficult for upward price transmission, suggesting that rubber prices may continue to experience downward fluctuations, with the RU-NR price spread likely to contract [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Qingdao region's imported natural rubber market is experiencing a weak oscillation after a price increase, with STR20 spot prices reported at $1770-$1785 per ton, up 3.51% from late April, and Thai mixed prices around 14,400 RMB per ton, up 1.55% [1] - In early to mid-May, the market saw price fluctuations due to rising overseas raw material prices, strong futures, and a weaker USD against RMB, which boosted domestic prices [1] - Despite the positive macroeconomic developments from US-China trade negotiations, tire manufacturers maintained a cautious purchasing stance, leading to a lack of market confidence and a subsequent price correction towards the end of May [1] Group 2 - As of mid-May 2025, natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased year-on-year by 16.78% in general trade warehouses and by 29.07% in bonded zones, influenced by lower purchasing activity from tire factories [2] - The market outlook for June suggests potential downward pressure on natural rubber prices due to increased upstream production and a seasonal decline in demand, with a focus on weather conditions affecting rubber tapping [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to weakening orders and uncertainties in the macro market, indicating that trading conditions may not improve significantly [5]

装置检修集中，丁二烯原料价格强势 橡胶观点 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15235元/吨，较前一日变动+240元/吨。NR主力合约13035元/吨，较前一日变动+180 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15150元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14920元/吨， 较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1820美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12700元/吨，较前一日变动+400元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价12650元/吨，较前一日变动+550元/吨。 化工日报 | 2025-05-15 相关产品情况市场分析 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-05-14，RU基差-85元/吨（+10），RU主力与混合胶价差315元/吨（+90），烟片胶进口利润-6222 元/吨（+225.71），NR基差61.00元/吨（-42.00）；全乳胶15150元/吨（+250），混合胶14920元/吨（+150），3L现货 16200元/吨（+150）。S ...