Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE:ADM) 2026 Conference February 25, 2026 08:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsChris Cuddy - President of Carbohydrate Solutions SegmentGreg Morris - President of the Ag Services and Oilseeds SegmentConference Call ParticipantsSalvator Tiano - Equity Research AnalystSalvator TianoGood morning, everyone. I'm Salvator Tiano. Thank you very much for coming and making it through this weather. For the next fireside chat, we have ADM, and we have two people actually, so all the expert ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils are oscillating. During the Spring Festival, the strengthening of crude oil boosted international vegetable oil prices, and the rise in CBOT oil prices led to a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend in domestic oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,824.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.45% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +86.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.07% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,200.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +162.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.79% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,810.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.73%. The spot basis was P05 - 14.00, with a month - on - month change of +24.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +140.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.68%. The spot basis was Y05 + 320.00, with a month - on - month change of +54.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +160.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.63%. The spot basis was OI05 + 750.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Canadian rapeseed (March shipment): C&F price was 564 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (May shipment): C&F price was 572 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment): C&F price was 1,202 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment): C&F price was 1,171 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 508 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 502 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 463 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 231 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 112 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Figures - There are 30 figures in the report, covering various aspects such as the average price, closing price, basis, spread, profit, output, volume, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

综合来看，油脂市场多空并存，首先，美国生物柴油政策暂提供着重要长期支撑，当前预计2026年美国 生柴掺混义务量大幅增长，对油脂油料板块整体产生了一定的下方支撑，还需要紧盯美国RVO终案落 地进展。对于菜系方面，中加关系缓和，我国菜系原料供应紧张的格局面临被打破的格局，目前的变量 在于美加关系对我国菜系原料进口的影响，如果不出现较大变数，近强远弱的格局或逐渐形成，菜系上 方的压制力量不容忽视。棕榈油方面，马来最新的1月高频产量数据出现一定回落，但出口数据的环比 收紧幅度并不尽如人意，未来产地库存去化的节奏仍需进一步观察，如果产量降幅持续扩大，对油脂价 格的提振或逐渐明确。节后市场来看，假期期间原油价格的上行以及生柴政策可能出现进展的乐观预期 导致国内油脂油料节后开盘表现偏强。但目前基本面多空交织，提振力量能否支撑其持续上行，我们需 要等待美国生物柴油政策提供的油脂需求的中长期支撑最终落地，以及棕榈油产地基本面环比明显收 紧，才能给油脂多头更多的底气。 免责声明 本报告基于已公开的信息编制，我们力求信息及时、准确、完整，但不保证信息的绝对准确和完整。本 报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。投资 ...

Core Insights - Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is expected to report a decline in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 83 cents, reflecting a 27.2% decrease from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM's revenues is projected at $22.3 billion, indicating a 3.8% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - In the last reported quarter, ADM achieved an earnings surprise of 3.4%, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 4.3% over the last four quarters [3]. Segment Analysis - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is anticipated to face continued pressure due to challenging margins, with revenues estimated at $17.7 billion, suggesting a 4.9% year-over-year growth [4][7]. - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment is expected to report revenues of $2.6 billion, indicating a 4.9% decline year-over-year, driven by soft global demand for sweeteners and starches [6][7]. - The Nutrition segment is projected to be a positive contributor, with revenues estimated at $1.85 billion, reflecting a 4.3% year-over-year growth, supported by portfolio optimization and cost discipline [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing margin pressures in its Refined Products and Other segment due to uncertainties in biofuel and trade policies, which have negatively impacted biodiesel margins [5]. - Despite these challenges, ADM is focusing on productivity improvements and innovation, particularly in biosolutions, biotics, flavors, and health and wellness, which are seeing increased customer engagement [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - ADM has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.76X, which is below its five-year high of 16.91X and above the industry average of 13.59X [15]. - The stock has risen 10.5% over the past three months, contrasting with a 14.8% decline in the industry [15].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil leads the oilseed sector with a price increase of over 2% in the main contract, driven by seasonal production cuts overseas and domestic pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for palm oil [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Oilseed policies are centered around Indonesia and the United States, with Indonesia canceling the B50 biodiesel plan and extending the B40 plan until 2026, leading to reduced demand expectations [3][7]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is set to be announced soon, which is expected to boost vegetable oil demand, with plans to finalize the biodiesel blending obligation of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons by March 2026, while also abandoning the RINs import reduction rule [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Seasonal production cuts have begun, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimating a 14.43% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production from January 1 to 20 [3][7]. - High-frequency data indicates a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 7.97% to 9.97% from January 1 to 25 [3][7]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic pre-holiday stocking and the release of spot demand are pushing oilseeds into a destocking phase, contributing to a collective rise in domestic oilseed futures [3][7]. - Palm oil has reached a three-month high, soybean oil a five-month high, and rapeseed oil a six-week high in the domestic market [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on essential companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) that provide necessary products regardless of economic conditions, contrasting them with more volatile investments that are influenced by media narratives and market fears [1][2]. Company Overview - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is characterized as a "boring" company that consistently generates cash flow in any economic environment, delivering a total return of 26% over the past year [4]. - The stock has recently pulled back, presenting a buying opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on its potential for growth in 2026 [4]. Market Dynamics - Concerns about low "crush margins" in the soybean processing industry led to a sell-off of ADM stock, but this reaction is viewed as a misunderstanding of agricultural market cycles [5]. - Agricultural markets are cyclical; when corn prices are high, supply increases, leading to price drops, which creates a buying opportunity for investors [6]. Demand Drivers - Regardless of economic conditions, the global population continues to grow, increasing the demand for food, particularly protein sources, which rely heavily on corn and soy meal [7]. - The feed-to-meat production ratio establishes a floor for corn and soybean prices, indicating that prices are unlikely to decrease significantly from current levels [8]. Future Catalysts - Two potential catalysts for ADM's growth include a proposed increase in biomass-based diesel targets by the EPA, which would boost demand for corn and soybeans, and significant cost-cutting measures aimed at improving profitability [9]. - Management's share repurchase strategy has reduced the share count by 14% over the past five years, enhancing earnings per share (EPS) even in flat earnings scenarios [10]. Dividend and Investment Appeal - ADM is recognized as a "Dividend King," having raised its dividend for over 50 consecutive years, making it a reliable investment during various economic cycles [11]. - The company offers a 3.5% dividend yield, with expectations for a dividend hike in the near future, positioning it as an attractive option for income-focused investors [12]. Broader Investment Opportunities - The article identifies additional "essential" stocks with similar valuations to ADM that are also positioned to deliver strong returns regardless of economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of investing in recession-resistant dividend growers [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall edible oils in China showed a volatile trend this week. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils continued to decline slightly, but the overall inventory was still sufficient [4]. - Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with expected continuous production and inventory reduction in the later stage, but the inventory - reduction speed is slow, and high inventory may persist [4][28]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory is not expected to be tight. There are uncertainties in subsequent customs policies, and short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [4][23][28]. - Sino - Canadian relations show signs of improvement. Importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable at current prices. However, even if relations ease, it will take time for rapeseed to arrive at ports. In the short term, the near - month rapeseed oil contracts have both pressure and support [4][26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Estimated that the production in December may drop to 1.76 million tons, exports may slightly increase to 1.25 million tons, and inventory may accumulate to nearly 3 million tons. High inventory will make subsequent inventory reduction slow, and the stock - to - sales ratio has increased significantly. The RBD price is around $1020, showing a volatile downward trend, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on Monday [5][8]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The CPO spot price remains high at around $850, and the inventory is continuously low, with a firm price. Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel mission and may confiscate an additional 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, causing palm oil prices to rise recently [8]. - **Indian Palm Oil**: The market expects India's edible oil imports to increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with palm oil imports increasing from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons. It is estimated that India will import only 500,000 tons of palm oil in December, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports will increase significantly. The international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging, which is conducive to increased palm oil procurement to some extent [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The basis is stable. The origin's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, but domestic procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that inventory reduction will start in December, but the speed will be slow [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. The peak of soybean arrivals in China has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease after October, but the overall inventory will not be tight [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened. Sino - Canadian relations are improving, and importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable. In the long - term, rapeseed oil is bearish, but in the short - term, the near - month contracts have support at the bottom and pressure at the top [26]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Edible oils are expected to continue to rebound in the short - term, but the rebound height may be limited, and the overall trend may be volatile. For palm oil, consider short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Soybean oil lacks driving factors and may follow the overall trend of edible oils. Rapeseed oil's core issue lies in policy changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [35][36][37]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [40][41][43]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [45]. - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on India's monthly edible oil consumption, imports, and port inventory are presented, including data on palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports, showing trends over multiple years [49][50][52]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil, and 24 - degree palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [61][62][63]. - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [65]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic palm oil monthly import volume, monthly sales volume, and weekly trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [67]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import volume, and monthly consumption are presented, showing trends over multiple years [69]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Spot Basis**: Data on the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - refined rapeseed oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [71][72][73]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil commercial inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [75][77][79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase in different ranges in the weeks ending January 1, 2026 [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2019 [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with a forecast of 24 million tons of soybean meal exports. However, exports to China may decrease by 10 million tons compared to 2025 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to increase, with end - of - period inventory decreasing [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales in the week ending January 1, 2026, are expected to net increase by 7.5 - 16 million tons, with 7.5 - 13 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 3 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 1 - 3.5 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 0.3 million tons [1]. - The average institutional expectation for US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2026, is 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase from the same period last year, the highest since 2019. The USDA will release the quarterly grain inventory report on January 13, 2026 (Beijing time) [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach a record - high of 112 million tons, with exports to China expected to be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. Brazil is also expected to export 24 million tons of soybean meal in 2026 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons. The 2025/26 annual production is expected to be 19.7 million tons, with total supply of 22.56 million tons, exports of about 16.2 million tons, and end - of - period inventory decreasing from 2.36 million tons to 2.16 million tons [1]. - A commodity survey shows that Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous forecast. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 51.2 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].