油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨 分析师的预估显示，截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增75-130万 吨，2026-27年度料净增0-30万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增10-35万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增10-30万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-5万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净增0-3万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0-2万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-1万吨。 机构预计截至12月1日美国大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，为2019年以来同期最高 USDA将在1月12日1700GMT(北京时间1月13日凌晨1点）发布季度谷物库存报告。报告发布前，机构平均预期截至12 月1日的大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增加4.8%，为2019年以来最高同期库存。 Anec：巴西2026年大豆出口料创下1.12亿吨纪录新高 巴西谷物出口商组织Anec主管SergioMendes周三在采访中称，巴西大豆贸易商预计2026年将向中国出口7，700万吨 大 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent core events and market review show that the export of Indonesian palm oil from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% year - on - year, and traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month. This week, the performance of oils and fats was significantly differentiated. Palm oil showed an overall oscillating upward trend, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and declined after reaching the upper limit of the range. [4] - Malaysia's palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory accumulation in November. Later, as the production areas gradually enter the production - cut season, its inventory will gradually decrease, but the speed is expected to be slow. Indonesia's inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the origin quotations are stable with a slight increase. Currently, the inventory of soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing, but the market lacks driving forces, and its price mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil imports, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for rapeseed oil prices. [4][25] - Overall, short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. [27] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market 3.1.1 Malaysia's Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that Malaysia's palm oil production in November will decrease by 3% month - on - month to 1.98 million tons, exports will sharply decrease by 15% to 1.44 million tons, and inventory will accumulate to around 2.7 million tons, reaching a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to next week's MPOB report. [9] 3.1.2 Indonesia's Palm Oil - Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the export of Indonesian palm oil in October was 1.91 million tons, and from January to October, the export volume was 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. ITS data shows that the export volume in October was around 2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%, but the overall data from ITS shows a decreasing trend. From January to October, the export volume was 20.35 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In terms of different countries, the export volume to Africa increased by about 30%. [9] 3.1.3 India's Edible Oil Market - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, reaching a seven - month low. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports may decrease by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% to 145,000 tons. The market expects that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 season will continue to increase to over 17 million tons. Among them, soybean oil imports may decrease year - on - year but remain at a relatively high level, while palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, showing a large increase. There are rumors that India has cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders originally scheduled for delivery from December to January. Currently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, and the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is gradually emerging, which is conducive to an increase in palm oil procurement to some extent. [12] 3.2 Domestic Market 3.2.1 Domestic Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025 (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons or 2.04% compared with last week. Recently, palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotations are relatively stable, and the inversion of import profits has narrowed to around - 200. There are rumors of two ship purchases this week. The basis is stable with a slight decline. In the short term, oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces. Palm oil is in a long - short game between the positive factor of production cuts caused by flood impacts and the suppression of relatively high inventory. Overall, palm oil is still in a range - bound bottom - grinding stage in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.09% compared with last week. Currently, soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. Domestic demand is average, and trading has become dull. Traders mainly execute contracts. Later, as the arrival of soybeans gradually decreases and soybean crushing volume declines from a high level, soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the price increase is relatively weak, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long with a light position after the price stabilizes following a pullback. Attention should be paid to next week's USDA report. [20] 3.2.3 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. It is still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remains stable at around $1,100, and the inversion of import profits for European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are rumors of rapeseed oil imports this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level, and the quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing regions are relatively high, but the downstream acceptance is general. It is expected that the inventory - decreasing trend in coastal areas will continue. In the short term, the overall increase of oils and fats is weak. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and the continuous marginal decrease of rapeseed oil inventory, there is still some support for rapeseed oil prices. Without a full - scale relaxation of rapeseed procurement, rapeseed oil may maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider buying on dips at the lower limit of the range for OI03 or 05 contracts and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [23] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. [27]

油脂周报：两大月报中性偏多，油脂迎来弱反弹 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. MPOB 12月棕榈油供需数据显示，马棕12月期末库存继续去库至170.9万吨，环比减少6.91%。其中产量减 8.3%至148.7万吨，出口大幅下滑约10%至134万吨。 2. USDA月报显示，美豆新作单产下调至50.7蒲/英亩，超市场预期，产量随之下调至43.66亿蒲，低于市场预期的 44.53亿蒲，也低于12月预计的44.61亿蒲，库消比从此前预计的10.81%降至8.74%。 3.目前马来和印尼均不存在库存压力，产地报价仍较为偏高，预计 1 季度两国合计库存仍持续处于中性偏低水平， 国内棕油进口利润倒挂，库存偏低，或将对棕榈油形成一定支撑，国内豆油库存较为中性短期或易降难增。临近春 节假期，资金避险情绪可能会增加以及宏观转弱，油脂市场缺乏强有力的驱动，油脂短期预计还将会维持震荡，可 能会出现弱反弹。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国 ...

Indian buyers have secured large purchases of soybean oil for the four months to July, a rare move in anticipation of rising prices of rival palm oil https://t.co/bsqCqAk3Qz ...

Commodity Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, highlighting trends and forecasts for various commodities including precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3][10]. Key Themes and Forecasts 1. **Strong Performance Expected in 2026** - Commodities are projected to have another strong performance year, with the ICE MLCX TR index up 6% year-to-date, driven by gains in precious and industrial metals [1]. - Global GDP is forecasted to expand by 3.3% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain sticky at 2.9% [1][10]. 2. **Gold and Silver Outlook** - Gold prices could potentially reach $5,000/oz due to central bank and investor buying, supported by fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty [6][10]. - Silver demand may face headwinds from solar PV technology, but overall, both metals are expected to benefit from geopolitical risks and inflation expectations [2][10]. 3. **Industrial Metals Demand** - Industrial metals are expected to remain tight, with copper and aluminum likely to benefit from supply disruptions and stockpiling [2][10]. - The report anticipates a deficit in copper due to limited mine projects and outages at major mines [41]. 4. **Energy Sector Dynamics** - Oil prices are expected to average $60/bbl for Brent and $57/bbl for WTI in 2026, with a surplus in the oil market due to excess supply from OPEC+ [10]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly from Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could tighten the oil market despite the overall bearish outlook [2][10]. 5. **Agricultural Commodities** - A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soybean meal, while soybean oil is expected to see substantial upside due to strong demand [2][10]. - Agricultural commodities are influenced by robust supply growth and subdued demand, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][10]. Additional Insights - **Strategic Inventory Accumulation** - Strategic inventory accumulation, particularly by China, is expected to continue, supporting both energy and metals markets despite overall demand and balance conditions [52][53]. - The report notes that stockpiling has been influenced more by trade policy than geopolitical strategy in the metals sector [53]. - **Diversification and Inflation Hedging** - Commodities are increasingly viewed as essential for diversification and inflation hedging in investment portfolios, especially under current macroeconomic conditions [3][10]. - The report suggests that commodities could provide a unique hedge to traditional 60/40 portfolios amid rising inflation and geopolitical risks [3][10]. - **Market Risks and Opportunities** - Upside risks for commodities include potential geopolitical shocks and renewed demand from sectors like AI and defense spending, which could support industrial metals [41][10]. - Conversely, downside risks stem from excess supply in energy markets and potential economic slowdowns affecting demand [2][10]. Conclusion - The commodities sector is poised for a strong performance in 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors, strategic inventory accumulation, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Investors are encouraged to consider commodities for diversification and as a hedge against inflation.

#数据 海关数据显示，中国10月份大豆油出口量创下70877吨的纪录，其中大部分出口至印度。今年前10个月的出口量已达32.9万吨，几乎是2024年全年出口量的三倍。印度主要进口商表示，中国产豆油的价格比南美产豆油低10至15美元/吨，而且运输时间只需10-12天，远少于巴西和阿根廷的50-60天。 https://t.co/dQtWRUBPKB ...

China’s exports of soybean oil to India are surging as weak domestic demand for the cooking ingredient coincides with robust imports of soybeans from South America and, more recently, the US https://t.co/pRTsdjRXrR ...

Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]