Markets rarely operate in isolation, but few cross commodity relationships are direct as one between [music] the energy and the row crops. Around 40% of the US corn crop is used for ethanol [music] production, yielding roughly 15 billion gallons annually that are blended into the domestic gasoline supply under the renewable fuel standard. When gasoline prices rise, ethanol [music] blending economics approve and refiners compete more aggressively for corn, a dynamic that works its way directly into futures p ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to expand its soybean planting area in 2026, while soybean inventory at the beginning of Q1 2026 may reach a six - year high. Brazil is likely to have a bountiful soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased significantly compared to the previous month [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Crop Information - The average forecast of analysts is that the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 will reach 85.549 million acres, higher than 81.215 million acres last year and the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA Outlook Forum. The expected corn planting area in 2026 is 94.371 million acres, lower than in 2025 but slightly higher than the Outlook Forum's prediction [1] - The average analyst expectation is that the U.S. soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, will be 2.063 billion bushels, the highest in six years and an 8% increase from the same period in 2025 [1] - From the week ending March 19, 2026, U.S. soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 60 tons, with 20 - 50 tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 tons for the 2026 - 27 season. U.S. soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 40 tons, and soybean oil export sales are expected to range from a net decrease of 2 tons to a net increase of 2.4 tons [1] 3.2 Brazilian Crop Information - Agroconsult reported that Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.9% increase from the early - March forecast. The company adjusted the planting area to 49.1 million hectares and the average national yield to 62.7 bags per hectare. South Rio Grande do Sul is the main area with reduced production, while most other major producing states are performing well [1] 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Information - According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase from the same period last month [1] 3.4 Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products from March 19 - 25, 2026, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu. For example, on March 19, 2026, the soybean meal price in Jiangsu was 3300, and on March 25, it dropped to 3190 [1][2]

Oil Market Insights - Oil prices remain elevated despite recent fluctuations, with WTI down about 4% due to optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in ongoing conflicts [4][7] - Chevron has warned of a crisis in California, contributing to rising national gas prices, which have increased by $1 since the start of the conflict [2] - The physical oil market is experiencing minimal increases in shipping flow, with only a slight uptick from one ship to six ships over recent days, indicating limited immediate impact on supply [5] Economic Indicators - Import prices rose by 1.3% month-over-month, significantly higher than the expected 0.6%, marking the largest increase since March 2022 [10][12] - Export prices increased by 1.5%, also surpassing expectations, raising concerns about inflationary pressures across various sectors [13] - Non-fuel imports saw a 1.1% increase, indicating rising costs for consumer goods and input materials, which could affect overall inflation [13] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 has been trading within a range and remains below the 200-day moving average, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [16] - Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD show bearish formations, suggesting a loss of price momentum despite some recent positive movements [6] - The market is characterized by low liquidity, making it susceptible to significant price swings based on news headlines [7][8] Commodity Market Developments - Optimism regarding a ceasefire may lead to a rebound in risk-on assets, including metals like copper and gold, as fears of a global economic slowdown diminish [19] - Upcoming discussions on biofuels and blending requirements could influence agricultural commodity prices, particularly soybeans and corn, potentially impacting oil and gas prices in the near term [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the focus of the oil and fat market. In March, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. Domestic palm oil has a phased inventory accumulation pressure after the delayed arrival of shipments, but India's large - scale imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profit are beneficial to palm oil demand. Domestic soybean oil is continuously reducing inventory slightly, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is still supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy. In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory, and the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war promotes the rapeseed oil price, and rapeseed oil may fluctuate at a high level [4][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th decreased by 5.28%, a significant decline compared with the 1.55% increase in the first 10 days. The rainfall forecast indicates that the production area will be relatively dry in the next week, and the production in March is expected to recover poorly but still increase slightly to around 1.45 million tons. The current spot price of Malaysian CPO has risen to around 4,500, slightly lower than the same period last year. In terms of exports, ITS data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th increased by 44% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding compared with the 38% increase in the first 10 days. It is expected that the inventory in March will be reduced to between 2.5 and 2.6 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history [10]. 3.2 International Market - Indonesia - Starting from March 20th, Indonesia will enter the Eid al - Fitr holiday, lasting about 7 - 10 days. It is expected that the CPO reference price in Indonesia will be raised to around $995 in April, and the taxes and fees will also be raised by one level to $148, which will further increase the cost of palm oil. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and diesel have risen significantly, and the POGO spread has dropped significantly, resulting in a significant recovery of the blending profit of palm - based biodiesel, which will increase the demand for palm biodiesel. According to the HIP spread between Indonesian biodiesel and diesel, it is expected that Indonesian biodiesel will not need subsidies in April. Driven by profit, it will be beneficial to the increase in biodiesel production in March and April. As of February 12th, the cumulative biodiesel supply in Indonesia from January to February was about 1.27 million kiloliters, with a completion rate of about 85% in January, and the implementation of biodiesel is good [13]. 3.3 Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 13, 2026 (Week 11), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 842,000 tons, an increase of 29,900 tons or 3.68% compared with last week. The palm oil inventory has been continuously increasing and is at a relatively high - level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit of the futures market is inverted by about 100, and the basis is running weakly and stably. According to incomplete statistics, there were 6 ship purchases this week. On the demand side, the spot market trading is light, and downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. In the short term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the overall oil and fat market has risen driven by the increase in biodiesel demand. Considering that geopolitical factors may be volatile, it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 13, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 890,900 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons or 1.66% compared with last week. The soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The spot basis of soybean oil varies in different regions, with the basis in the north being stable and slightly strong, and that in East and South China being stable. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has oscillated and dropped to around - 980, the spot trading volume of soybean oil has increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment has warmed up. The oil mill's crushing and operation rate is gradually rising, and the supply of soybean oil is increasing. It is understood that there is a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week, and overall, the soybean oil inventory will continue to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but it is supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy, and driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall oil and fat market to fluctuate at a high level [19]. 3.5 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 151,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with last week. As of March 13, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 282,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,150, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil has an inverted spread that has expanded to around - 1,500. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills have increased their operation, and the supply of rapeseed oil has increased. However, the downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, the market demand is weak overall, and the transactions are mainly for a small number of long - term basis contracts. The basis of rapeseed oil is stable. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. Before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives and with the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed transportation, the rapeseed oil price is promoted to a certain extent, and rapeseed oil may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the Middle - East war weakens later and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of long - term rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also be prominent [22]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fat may fluctuate at a high level. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider the opportunity of reverse arbitrage for P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 when the price is high. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean export sales and shipments in the US for the week ending March 12 were lower than expected, while the export sales of US soybean meal met expectations [1] - Allendale predicts that US farmers will reduce corn planting area by 5.2% and increase soybean planting area by 5.5% in 2026 [1] - Abiove expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 177.85 million tons, with increased soybean crushing, bean - meal and soybean oil production [1] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 15, 2026 decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending March 12, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 29.82 million tons, 35% less than the previous week and 42% less than the four - week average, with a market forecast of 35 - 80 million tons. The export shipments were 90.65 million tons, 9% less than the previous week and 14% less than the four - week average. The new sales for the current market year were 31.77 million tons, and 0.66 million tons for the next market year. The net export sales to China were 7.99 million tons, and the export shipments to China were 54.59 million tons [1] - For the week ending March 12, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 22.09 million tons, 33% more than the previous week and 25% less than the four - week average, meeting the market forecast of 15 - 30 million tons. The export shipments were 39.76 million tons, 10% more than the previous week and 6% more than the four - week average. The new sales for the current market year were 23.46 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1] Planting Area Forecast - Allendale's survey shows that US farmers plan to reduce corn planting area by 5.2% and increase soybean planting area by 5.5% in 2026. The expected corn planting area is 93.678 million acres, and the soybean planting area is 85.659 million acres. USDA's February forecast was 94 million acres for corn and 85 million acres for soybeans. Farmers have sold 83% of the 2025 soybean harvest and 11% of the 2026 harvest [1] Production Forecast - Abiove expects Brazil's 2026 soybean crushing to reach a record 61.5 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 61 million tons. The 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 177.85 million tons, up from 177.12 million tons. The 2026 soybean exports are expected to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate. The 2026 bean - meal production is expected to be 47.4 million tons, up from 47 million tons, and the soybean oil production is expected to be 12.35 million tons, up from 12.25 million tons [1] Palm Oil Production - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 15, 2026 decreased by 5.28% month - on - month, with a 2.96% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.44% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 13 - 19, 2026 are provided [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight market information shows that the US soybean export inspection volume and soybean crushing volume in February 2026 exceeded expectations, and the soybean oil inventory increased [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of March and the progress of the 2025/26 soybean harvest are reported, and Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 increased significantly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export inspection volume: As of the week ending March 12, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 966,082 tons, higher than the market expectation of 400,000 - 800,000 tons, and the previous week was 887,003 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 545,858 tons, accounting for 56.5% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 28,061,287 tons, compared with 39,123,071 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - US soybean crushing volume: In February 2026, the soybean crushing volume of NOPA member units was 208.785 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The daily crushing volume was 7.457 million bushels, exceeding the previous record. The soybean oil inventory increased to 208 million pounds, a 9.5% increase from the end of January and a 38.4% increase from the same period last year [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports: In the first two weeks of March, Brazil exported 6,507,349.57 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 650,734.96 tons, a 16% decrease compared with the daily average export volume in March of the previous year [1]. - Brazil's soybean harvest progress: As of last Thursday, the harvest of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean was 61% complete, a 10 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but lower than 70% in the same period last year. The harvest pace is the slowest since the 2020/21 season [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports: From March 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,606 tons, a 56.9% increase compared with the same period last month [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of bean粕 in Jiangsu, rapeseed粕 in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 10 - 16, 2026 are provided [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the significant increase in crude oil prices, the blending profits of US soybean oil and palm oil for biodiesel have improved significantly, leading to an expected increase in the demand for biodiesel from oils and fats. The increase in freight costs caused by geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, making the overall price of oils and fats likely to rise and difficult to fall [5][25]. - For palm oil, Malaysian palm oil continued to reduce production and inventory in February. With a high base, the inventory may remain at a relatively high level. There is a phased inventory accumulation pressure for domestic palm oil after the delayed arrival of shipments. However, India's large imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profits are beneficial to palm oil demand [5][25]. - Domestic soybean oil has been experiencing a slight reduction in inventory, but the supply is sufficient. Supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the upward trend [5][25]. - In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards [5][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB's February palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil decreased to 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. Production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22% to 1.13 million tons. The report's impact was neutral [8]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 increased by 1.55% month - on - month compared to the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days of March increased by 44% month - on - month. As the producing areas enter the traditional production - increasing season, the inventory reduction speed is slow, and the high inventory is expected to continue for some time [8]. - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, crude oil prices have risen significantly. Recently, Indonesia's B50 biodiesel has been mentioned again. Indonesia indicates that there are still 10,000 kilometers left for the B50 road test, and the test is expected to be completed no earlier than June or July this year. In addition, the Indonesian president requires that domestic demand be prioritized before palm oil exports. Based on this, palm oil is expected to remain prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [8]. International Market - Indian Edible Oil - SEA data shows that India's edible oil imports in February decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons but were still at a high level in the same period of history. Palm oil imports increased by 10% month - on - month to 850,000 tons, reaching a six - month high; soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% month - on - month to 300,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% month - on - month to 150,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [14]. - In terms of inventory, India's edible oil port inventory decreased slightly to 820,000 tons in February, higher than the five - year average, while the channel inventory increased significantly to 1.05 million tons but was still at a relatively low level in the same period. Palm oil inventory increased to 520,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil inventories decreased [14]. - Currently, India has occasional import profits for soybean oil and sunflower oil, but the international price difference between soybean - palm and sunflower - palm oils is at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history. The absolute price of palm oil is relatively lower and more cost - effective. Recently, there are rumors in the market that India has washed some far - month soybean oil shipments. It is expected that India will appropriately increase palm oil imports [14]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 6, 2026 (week 10), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 812,100 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons compared to last week. Palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation remained stable, the盘面 import profit was inverted by about 160, the basis was stable and slightly weak, and the port inventory pressure was high [17]. - On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, terminal consumption was weak, downstream acceptance of high prices was low, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The overall market transaction was light. In the short term, affected by the significant increase in crude oil prices, the demand for oils and fats in biodiesel applications is expected to increase significantly. At the same time, the increase in freight costs due to geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, further supporting the price increase of oils and fats. If the Middle - East war weakens in the future, oils and fats may fluctuate at a high level. Continued attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical changes [17]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 905,900 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 0.81%. Currently, soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis of soybean oil has decreased steadily [20]. - After the Spring Festival, the purchasing and selling atmosphere has not fully recovered. The supply expectations for February and March are high, causing short - term pressure on the basis. This week, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 210,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 40,000 tons. The market trading volume has increased. It is understood that there was a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week. Overall, the soybean oil inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. However, supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall upward trend of oils and fats [20]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 6, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 121,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to last week. As of March 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 263,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remained stable at around $1080, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil was inverted and expanded to around - 1500. The Ministry of Commerce announced a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on rapeseed imported from Canada. Before this, China had purchased about a dozen ships of Canadian rapeseed. After the Spring Festival, the operation of oil mills increased, and the supply of rapeseed oil may increase. However, downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand is weak. It is expected that the basis of rapeseed oil will show a weakening trend [23]. - In addition, the Middle - East geopolitical war has affected rapeseed oil transportation. The conventional transportation route of Dubai rapeseed oil needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. In 2025, the proportion of rapeseed oil imported from the UAE by China decreased to 12%. Russian, Belarusian, and Dubai rapeseed oils together account for nearly 90% of China's total rapeseed oil imports. Overall, in the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards. However, if the Middle - East war weakens in the future and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of far - month rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also become prominent [23]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, oils and fats are likely to rise and difficult to fall [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27].

Core Insights - Investment firms are adjusting strategies in response to market volatility and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which is affecting traditional asset correlations and hedging strategies [3][5][14] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Invesco recommends buying commodities shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, such as aluminum and grains, while Gama Asset Management has increased dollar cash and hedging via equity futures [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management has reduced portfolio sensitivity to market moves by employing non-linear equity downside protection and credit hedges, while increasing cash allocations for risk hedging [2] - Fund managers are exploring non-traditional strategies, including selected equities, option overlays, and investments in commodities like aluminum and soybean oil [4] Group 2: Market Conditions - The rising anxiety of a stagflationary shock due to potential oil price increases is reshaping investment strategies, as traditional policy responses may be limited [3] - Government bonds, typically a safe haven during market stress, are now moving in tandem with equities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near its strongest level in almost two months, reflecting a shift in market positioning towards dollar strength as a safe haven [9][10] Group 3: Regional Focus - Chinese stocks are seen as a haven due to the country's diversified energy supplies, while the Australian dollar benefits from higher oil and gas prices [12] - Malaysia is identified as a target for investment due to its oil and commodities exposure and lower correlation with other emerging markets [12] Group 4: Risk Management - Investment managers are focusing on risk reduction strategies, such as selling volatility and maintaining buffers through high-quality bonds and precious metals [13] - Flexibility and selectivity in stock picking are emphasized over traditional diversification methods, as conventional hedges are not attracting safe-haven flows [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price of soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) is 9,684 yuan/ton with a 1.66% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) is 8,632 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 688,279 lots with a change of 180,513 lots, and the open interest is 338,494 lots with a change of - 881 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are given. For example, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780 yuan/ton with a 250 - yuan increase [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions is presented. For example, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 96 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different futures contracts, such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 5 - 9 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decline from the previous month. Producers are trying to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges may pose obstacles [3]. - Brazil needs to complete a technical feasibility study before deciding whether to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from the current 15% [5]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop conditions have improved for the second consecutive week due to recent rainfall in major planting areas [5]. - Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting area is not expected to decline despite low production margins [5]. - The US Climate Prediction Center expects the La Nina event to gradually turn into an ENSO - neutral state in the next month, with a 55% probability of being in a neutral state from May to July this year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [6].

Economic Data - Business inventories for December increased by 0.1%, matching expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised down to flat [2][3] - Retail inventories excluding autos rose by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.2%, indicating potential consumer slowdown [2][3] Employment Data - Private non-farm payrolls showed a loss of 86,000 jobs, contrary to the expected gain of 65,000, with the unemployment rate also ticking up [6][7] - Job losses were noted in the healthcare sector, which has previously been a strong contributor to job growth, suggesting potential ongoing weakness in the labor market [9] Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices have seen fluctuations, with WTI benchmark prices reaching highs of $89.62, and $90 being a key technical level [15] - There are significant risks to oil tankers, with around 20 million barrels at sea lacking destinations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Qatar and Kuwait [16][17] - The U.S. administration may intervene in the futures market to suppress prices, although this does not address physical oil movement issues [18] Commodity Market Impacts - Rising oil prices are pushing up commodity prices, particularly in the grain sector, affecting inputs like soybean oil and fertilizers [20][23] - The U.S. is encouraging China to purchase more oil from America and less from Russia, which may also impact the grains market [24]