固收 股债双弱，怎么做？20251124 摘要 当前股债双杀主要源于市场对流动性预期的转变，而非流动性本身。央 行报告暗示信贷投放增速可能下降，同业杠杆降低，总量政策预期应降 低，结构性工具成为流动性投放主要方式，影响市场情绪。 地产政策加码传言，特别是贴息政策，强化了市场对跨周期政策的认知， 引发交易情绪波动，导致股市和债市疲软。市场意识到结构性政策的实 际操作，而非仅仅是口头承诺。 30 年国债活跃券争夺反映了交易情绪，但本质上是一种噱头。尽管每只 券都有潜力成为活跃券，但并非所有券都能持续保持活跃，交易盘应利 用市场情绪榨干最后一点价值。 T2 债券流动性较差，T6 债券相对活跃。当前 T2 和 T6 利差约为 5 个 BP，低于理论值 7 个 BP，主要原因是 T2 流动性预期下滑，而非市场交 易情绪过于乐观。未来利差预计将回归至 6-7 个 BP 水平。 纯配置盘不宜参与日内无法反向交易的短暂行情，应从长期视角看待利 差变化趋势，进行债券持仓切换。关注短端品种和 3-7 年政金、3-5 年 普信等品种，这些品种近期表现出较好的相对价值。 未来几个月应重点关注短端品种和中期政金、普信等债券。12 月及 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - UBS expects global economic growth to gradually slow down in the second half of 2025, with healthy balance sheets and low default rates supporting spread stability [1] - The anticipated spread for EU investment-grade/high-yield bonds by December 2025 is projected at 100/325 basis points, despite potential market volatility from tariff news [1][2] - UBS's proprietary economic risk indicator has improved, challenging initial recession scenarios, although growth momentum is expected to fade later in the year [2] Group 2: ECB and Monetary Policy - UBS forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in June to 2.0%, aligning with market expectations, with another potential cut in July to 1.75% [3] - The ECB is expected to prioritize growth support while navigating inflation uncertainties, particularly in light of potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU [3] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slowdown in May, but manufacturing activity remains positive, with private sector credit growth recovering [4] - Low default rates (approximately 1.5%) and strong fundamentals are supporting the resilience of credit spreads, despite ongoing trade uncertainties [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Investment-grade financial bonds are seen as an ideal choice compared to corporate bonds, with energy and basic industries being the most sensitive to tariff news [1][7] - The capital goods and utilities sectors are viewed as defensive, while the technology sector is experiencing increased volatility due to specific risks [7] Group 5: Trade News Impact - Following the announcement of tariffs, credit spreads initially widened but did so in an orderly manner without panic selling [6] - UBS anticipates increased volatility around tariff news in the summer, particularly after the 90-day pause period ends [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - In the context of rising market volatility due to tariff news, opportunities in sensitive sectors are increasingly driven by individual stock performance rather than macro factors [8] - Companies with strong balance sheets and low breakeven points in the energy sector are better positioned, while those with high leverage face greater risks [8] Group 7: Credit Market Trends - The orderly widening of spreads around the "Liberation Day" reflects investor preparedness, with a significant amount of cash buffer available to manage tariff announcements [9] - UBS predicts a rotation of funds from U.S. to EU markets, with credit valuations remaining well-supported [9] Group 8: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has outperformed, supported by strong earnings from core European banks, despite some weakness in interest income and non-performing loans [10][11] - UBS maintains a constructive but cautious outlook on the financial sector, anticipating moderate issuance in the investment-grade primary market [11] Group 9: Technical Market Conditions - Investment-grade corporate bond issuance reached a historical high of 56% in May, driven by positive tariff news and strong investor demand [13] - UBS expects a healthy supply dynamic for financial bonds, particularly in AT1 and T2 bonds, supporting the market's technical backdrop [13] Group 10: Private Credit Market Outlook - UBS notes unique supportive factors in the European private credit market, including stronger EBITDA growth compared to the U.S. and improving interest coverage ratios [14] - The European private credit market is expected to remain resilient, with ample dry powder available to support liquidity and mitigate hard defaults [14]