黄仁勋终于得到了他最想要的东西。 本周美国政府正式批准英伟达向中国以及其他"经批准的客户"出售高端的H200 GPU芯片，但需要向美国政府缴纳25%的销售提成。这一提成 比例同样适用于AMD、英特尔等其他美国芯片巨头。不过，英伟达最新的Blackwell和未来的Rubin系列GPU仍然禁止出口。 这标志着黄仁勋长达数月的游说取得成功。过去半年时间，他不断造访佛罗里达与华盛顿，随着特朗普总统一道出访和出席国宴，向白宫宴会厅建设工程 捐款，就是为了这一刻。就在上周，他再一次来到白宫会见总统，终于如愿以偿得到了解锁禁运令。 受这一利好消息推动，英伟达股价盘后应声上涨。受美国政府连续多道芯片加码禁运令限制，过去两年时间，英伟达一步步失去迅猛增长的中国市场，丢 掉了在AI GPU市场原先高达95%的份额。在英伟达最核心的数据中心业务，中国市场的营收占比也从原先的四分之一急剧下滑。 虽然英伟达数据中心业务营收高达1300亿美元(最近财年)，但却存在一个巨大隐患：客户集中度过高，过度依赖于几大AI巨头。其中，前两大客户营收占 比39%，前三大客户营收占比高达53%。 据媒体猜测，黄仁勋的前五大客户正是：微软、谷歌、亚马逊、 ...

黄仁勋终于得到了他最想要的东西。 本周美国政府正式批准英伟达向中国以及其他"经批准的客户"出售高端的H200 GPU芯片，但需要向美国政府缴纳25%的销售提成。这一提成比 例同样适用于AMD、英特尔等其他美国芯片巨头。不过，英伟达最新的Blackwell和未来的Rubin系列GPU仍然禁止出口。 这标志着黄仁勋长达数月的游说取得成功。过去半年时间，他不断造访佛罗里达与华盛顿，随着特朗普总统一道出访和出席国宴，向白宫宴会厅 建设工程捐款，就是为了这一刻。就在上周，他再一次来到白宫会见总统，终于如愿以偿得到了解锁禁运令。 受这一利好消息推动，英伟达股价盘后应声上涨。受美国政府连续多道芯片加码禁运令限制，过去两年时间，英伟达一步步失去迅猛增长的中国 市场，丢掉了在AI GPU市场原先高达95%的份额。在英伟达最核心的数据中心业务，中国市场的营收占比也从原先的四分之一急剧下滑。 心急如焚的黄仁勋在两个月前公开抱怨， "我们已经失去了全球最大的市场之一，在中国市场完全出局，市场份额已经归零。 "即便是向美国政府 缴纳四分之一的提成，对英伟达的业绩营收也意义重大，因为中国AI GPU今年规模估计高达200亿-300亿美元 ...

硅谷观察/郑峻 黄仁勋终于得到了他最想要的东西。 本周美国政府正式批准英伟达向中国以及其他"经批准的客户"出售高端的H200 GPU芯片，但需要向美 国政府缴纳25%的销售提成。这一提成比例同样适用于AMD、英特尔等其他美国芯片巨头。不过，英 伟达最新的Blackwell和未来的Rubin系列GPU仍然禁止出口。 这标志着黄仁勋长达数月的游说取得成功。过去半年时间，他不断造访佛罗里达与华盛顿，随着特朗普 总统一道出访和出席国宴，向白宫宴会厅建设工程捐款，就是为了这一刻。就在上周，他再一次来到白 宫会见总统，终于如愿以偿得到了解锁禁运令。 受这一利好消息推动，英伟达股价盘后应声上涨。受美国政府连续多道芯片加码禁运令限制，过去两年 时间，英伟达一步步失去迅猛增长的中国市场，丢掉了在AI GPU市场原先高达95%的份额。在英伟达 最核心的数据中心业务，中国市场的营收占比也从原先的四分之一急剧下滑。 心急如焚的黄仁勋在两个月前公开抱怨，"我们已经失去了全球最大的市场之一，在中国市场完全出 局，市场份额已经归零。"即便是向美国政府缴纳四分之一的提成，对英伟达的业绩营收也意义重大， 因为中国AI GPU今年规模估计高达2 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the synergy between AI innovation and capital expenditure (CAPEX), highlighting that model innovation is the core driver of AI development, with CAPEX serving as the foundation for the AI cycle [12][14] - The AI industry chain includes AI hardware, CAPEX, and AI models and applications, which collectively support the computational needs for large model training and inference [12][14] - The report suggests that the AI storage cycle is driven by rising prices and simultaneous expansion and upgrades in production capacity, particularly in cloud and edge storage [4][34] Group 1: AI Innovation and CAPEX - Model innovation is identified as the key driver of AI development, with significant capital expenditures from cloud service providers and leading enterprises providing a stable cash flow to support upstream hardware sectors [14][24] - The report notes that major companies like Google and OpenAI are making substantial advancements in multi-modal models, which are expected to enhance user engagement and monetization opportunities [19][25] - The integration of AI capabilities into various applications is projected to create a closed loop of high computational demand leading to high-value content and increased user willingness to pay [24][25] Group 2: Storage Cycle - The report indicates that storage prices are on the rise, significantly boosting the gross margins of original manufacturers, with capital expenditures in the storage sector entering an upward phase [4][34] - It highlights that traditional DRAM and NAND production is being approached cautiously, while HBM production is prioritized, indicating a shift in focus within the storage industry [4][34] - The report discusses the emergence of new opportunities in the storage foundry model, driven by the evolving demands of AI applications [4][34] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the AI ecosystem, particularly those involved in AI storage, PCB, and power supply sectors, as they are expected to experience sustained growth [4][34] - It suggests that the ongoing upgrades in DRAM and NAND architectures will create new equipment demand, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [4][34] - The report encourages attention to the storage industry chain, particularly in light of the anticipated price increases and margin improvements for original manufacturers [4][34]

Group 1 - Alphabet has become the fourth company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $3 trillion, joining Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia [3] - The rapid increase in Alphabet's market value, which rose over $1.34 trillion in just two months, is attributed to multiple disruptive actions reshaping the tech industry [1][4] - Key drivers of Alphabet's stock surge include favorable antitrust rulings, positive regulatory environment, optimistic sentiment towards AI, and strong Q3 earnings exceeding expectations [4] Group 2 - Waymo, Google's autonomous driving division, operates over 2,500 vehicles and has achieved over 100 million miles of fully autonomous driving, with plans to expand its service to over 20 cities [7][9] - Waymo's business model combines ride-hailing services with technology licensing, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of autonomous driving [8] - In contrast, Tesla's approach focuses on a pure vision technology route, with plans to deploy 1,000 Robotaxis by the end of 2025, aiming for a fleet of 1 million Robotaxis across the U.S. [9][10] Group 3 - The competition between Waymo and Tesla represents a significant technological rivalry that will shape the future of the trillion-dollar autonomous driving market, with 2026 being a pivotal year for both companies [10] - Waymo's multi-sensor fusion approach is more costly, while Tesla's pure vision strategy offers long-term cost advantages and scalability [10] - The ongoing expansion of Waymo's services, including plans for international testing in London, highlights its commitment to leading in the autonomous driving sector [9]