更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2025 年债市启示录 - 框架的贫穷 20260104 摘要 人 - 人 - 人 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 天 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 天 - 财政政策调整存在不确定性,需关注长端接盘问题。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场发生了哪些重要变化，投资者的心态和策略有哪些转变? 2025 年债券市场经历了一系列显著变化,投资者的心态和策略也随之调整。首 先,许多传统框架在快速变化的市场环境中显得不再适用。过去被深信不疑的方 法论在实际操作中暴露出诸多问题。例如,2025年的市场表现比 2017年更为艰 难,但很多专业投资者并未意识到这一点。 具体来看,全债综合财富指数表现 尚可,但存单收益率并未达到2017年的高水平。当时存单收益率高达4.5%至4.7%, 与长债无异,因此许多人选择持有存单。而在 2024年和 2025年,没有人敢于在 年初就采取类似策略,因为市场普遍认为需要通过交易获取收益。此外，2017 年的信用债票面利率较高,有些甚至超过7.5%,而且当时全市场平均久期较低。 然而,目前所有资产的久期都很 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on global rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets, with insights from J.P. Morgan Securities. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Hawkish developments across developed market (DM) central banks have led to underperformance in the intermediate sector, aligning with a forecast for modestly higher yields in 2026 as easing cycles wind down [3][14] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to ease rates in January 2026, with the effective funds rate projected to be 3.40% by mid-2026 [11][12] - Treasury yields are forecasted to reach 3.60% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year by mid-2026, with slight increases expected by year-end [9][11] International Rates - DM rates have generally sold off due to a hawkish shift in central bank tones and strong data momentum, leading to a lightening of risk in portfolios [4][39] - The Fed's recent actions have not met more hawkish market expectations, contributing to a bearish outlook for the USD [6][80] Commodities - Cocoa's re-inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to drive significant buying, accounting for 22% of total open interest, overshadowing more modest buying in other commodities like corn and wheat [6] - Natural gas storage withdrawals in North West Europe (NWE) have exceeded forecasts, despite weaker demand trends [6] Currencies - The USD is under pressure due to a dovish Fed stance compared to hawkish developments in other G10 countries [75][79] - Event risks are elevated with upcoming US payroll releases, and a bearish outlook for the USD is contingent on data performance [79][80] Emerging Markets - The outlook for emerging markets (EM) in 2026 is positive, with lower macro volatility expected to support local markets. The recommendation is to stay overweight (OW) on EM FX and rates [6][11] - Growth and inflation are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing anticipated [6] Additional Important Insights - The Fed's policy path is now more aligned with J.P. Morgan's forecasts, indicating limited scope for further bearish impulses in the near term [14] - A significant funding gap is expected to emerge in 2027, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [22] - The demand for Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with mutual funds and ETFs likely absorbing 50% of net T-bill supply [32] - The anticipated cuts from the Fed and other central banks are expected to create a more favorable environment for high-yield currencies [68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various asset classes.

Thinkstock Quick Read The rotation trade had another run on Wall Street Monday, as tech stocks led the selling once again. While the move away from the AI/Data center trade has gained some strength, the reality is that with a likely third year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500, year-end profit taking is also coming in. With a slew of economic data set to come in this week, volatility could rise even  further. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick quest ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve cut the Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, the lowest since late 2022, aimed at supporting the job market and boosting home sales [2][5] - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% at 48,057, S&P 500 up 0.67% at 6,886, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 23,564, following the rate cut [2] - Treasury bond yields decreased across the curve, with the 30-year bond closing at 4.79% and the 10-year note at 4.16%, driven by solid buying and expectations of slower inflation [3] - The energy sector saw a rally, with Brent Crude closing at $62.66 (up 1.6%), West Texas Intermediate at $58.95 (up 1.20%), and natural gas at $4.63 (up 1.29%), supported by supply concerns and expectations of higher future demand [4]

Market Overview - Major indices closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial down 0.25% at 47,739, the S&P 500 down 0.35% at 6,846, and the Nasdaq down 0.14% at 32,224, as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2][6] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields increased as sellers dominated the market, with the 30-year bond closing at 4.81% and the 10-year note at 4.17%, amid mixed sentiments regarding future rate policies [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices fell due to a stronger dollar, weak economic outlook, and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Brent Crude at $62.51 (down 1.95%) and West Texas Intermediate at $58.88 (down 2%); natural gas dropped over 7% to $4.91 due to warmer temperatures and profit-taking [4] Gold - Gold prices remained flat, influenced by concerns over the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking from short-term traders, with gold last seen at $4,191 [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the three major pitfalls for trend traders: greed, fear, and prediction. Greed and fear are human weaknesses, while prediction is a behavioral weakness. It argues against predicting the market, as the only certainty in the market is uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The bond market shows a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a significant decline in long-term bond yields. The central bank conducted a 139.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 301.3 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan [3][5] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.30% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] - The sentiment in the bond market is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.85%, rising to 1.855%, and then falling back to 1.844% after the central bank's actions [5] Group 3 - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4000%, 2Y at 1.4025%, 5Y at 1.6200%, 10Y at 1.8285%, and long-term bonds at 2.2515% [6] - The market shows a mixed performance in terms of bond yields, with some experiencing slight declines while others remain stable [6]

Thinkstock Quick Read After a brutal Monday, investors were treated to a snap-back rally in stocks on Tuesday. All of the major indices and Cryptocurrencies finished the day higher on Tuesday as hopes for an interest rate cut remained positive. If the Fed does lower rates next week, that could be the catalyst to kick off an end-of-the-year “Santa Claus Rally.” Some investors get rich while others struggle because they never learned there are two completely different strategies to building wealth. ...

Global Markets Strategy November 24th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{B01v-d4joWPbpSPNcwGh7enRDcx_XYd872O4Uor3Vcsp4l33-sDPjK3f0Kx6YvaA0ymmNbAAwvGb8H0v}]} Overall summary US Rates Recent Fed speak has turned more cautious on further easing, and following the Septemb ...

Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced a significant rally on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 46,448, up 0.43%, the S&P 500 at 6,705, up 1.55%, and the NASDAQ at 22,872, up 2.69%, marking its best day since May [2] - The market rally was attributed to an oversold condition, a bounce-back from Friday's performance, and positive commentary regarding AI, data centers, and hyperscalers, which helped alleviate concerns over high AI spending and increasing debt [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields decreased as buying interest increased, supported by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating for a potential rate cut due to persistent low inflation and a struggling job market [3] - The 30-year long bond yield closed at 4.68%, while the benchmark 10-year note was at 4.03% [3] Oil and Gas - Energy markets saw a rebound on Monday, driven by optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts that could stimulate economic growth and fuel demand [4] - Brent Crude oil finished at $63.44, up 1.41%, and West Texas Intermediate at $58.96, up 1.55%, while natural gas prices fell by 1.31% to $4.52 [4] Seasonal Trends - Analysts suggest the market may be positioning for a seasonal "Santa Claus rally," as concerns about a Thanksgiving sell-off have lessened [5]

Market Overview - Stock futures are trading higher as the market prepares to close a volatile week, with significant fluctuations observed after NVIDIA Corp.'s earnings report [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day at 45,752, down 0.84%, the S&P 500 closed at 6,538, down 1.56%, and the NASDAQ was at 22,078, down 2.16% [2] Treasury Bonds - Yields across the curve decreased as investors sought the safety of U.S. sovereign debt following the market's sharp reversal [3] - The 30-year bond yield finished at 4.73%, while the benchmark 10-year note was last seen at 4.10% [3] Oil and Gas - Major oil benchmarks closed lower, with Brent Crude down 0.72% at $63.05 and West Texas Intermediate down 0.96% at $58.68 [4] - Natural gas experienced a significant decline, closing at $4.48, down 1.63% [4] Employment and Federal Reserve - Stronger-than-expected September job numbers raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in December [5] - The narrative shifted after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that rates could be reduced due to current job market weaknesses [2]