瑞银看到即将到来的催化剂，如圣诞主题系列产品等，预期高频数据(如追踪信用卡数据)改善将进一步 推动股价表现。基于DCF估值法，瑞银将泡泡玛特目标价从432港元上调至435港元，评级"买入"；将 2025至2027年的调整后净利预测上调13%至17%，以反映第三季度业绩。 瑞银发表研究报告指，泡泡玛特第三季度营收按年增长245%至250%，国内及海外销售分别按年增长 185%至190%、365%至370%，均超过该行预期，主要是来自中国、亚太和欧洲的销售优于预期。瑞银 对泡泡玛特持续看好，因旗下IP产品Twinkle Twinkle人气持续上升，而Labubu的二级市场价格呈现稳定 趋势。 ...

ab 21 October 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research First Read Pop Mart International Group Q325 strong beat on both domestic and overseas; peak season ahead Q: How did the announcement compare vs expectations? A: Pop Mart announced Q325 revenues up 245-250% YoY, with domestic/overseas sales up 185-190%/ 365-370% YoY, respectively, which beat our expectations of 180% YoY with domestic 143%/overseas 235% YoY. By channel, domestic offline/ online sales both demonstrated strong growth with 130-1 ...

October 22, 2025 12:32 AM GMT Pop Mart | Asia Pacific 3Q25 – Strong Beat: Acceleration at Scale Reaction to earnings Strengthens our thesis Meaningful upside Meaningful revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Unexpected growth acceleration in 3Q implies 20-25% higher sales than we estimated in dollar amount. We had anticipated the supply ramp for Labubu and other bestsellers to drive strong ...

泡泡玛特三季度业绩显著超出市场预期，营收增速较2024年同期增长245%-250%。高盛、野村等多家外 资投行一致认为，泡泡玛特在中国市场和海外市场均实现全面提速，其中海外业务呈现"多点开花"态 势。 10月22日，据追风交易台消息，野村、汇丰、高盛和花旗四家外资行在最新发布的研报中均给予泡泡玛 特积极评价，一致认为这一亮眼表现源于IP热度持续走强、供应产能扩张以及新品销售的全球爆发。 从分市场看，中国业务在高基数上仍显著加速，海外市场更是"多点开花"——美国同比增长超12倍，欧 洲保持高增，亚太市场虽略有放缓但仍稳健。外资行普遍认为，公司线上线下渠道均实现强劲扩张，热 门IP"THE MONSTERS"与新星"Twinkle Twinkle"共同驱动销售，为全年增长奠定坚实基础。 业绩超预期也促使外资行集体上调盈利预测与目标价。野村、花旗、汇丰、高盛均维持"买入"评级，认 为在股价近期回调后，当前区间提供了具吸引力的布局窗口。随着四季度旺季、周年主题活动和新IP持 续发力，泡泡玛特的增长可见性依旧极高。 三季度业绩全面超预期 泡泡玛特三季度营收增速达到245%-250%，较上半年的204%进一步加速。野村指 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 October 2025 Pop Mart - H ▲ Improved risk/reward profile; proven diversification to sustain LT growth; valuation attractive – upgrade to OW We upgrade our rating to OW with a new PT of HK$320 (prior: HK$300). Pop Mart's share price declined 24% from its recent peak of HK$335.40 (Aug 26) to the recent trough of HK$254 (Oct 2), vs HSI's 7% gain over the period. This suggests investors have been lowering expectations and building a more conservative stance, in ou ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights Pop Mart's efforts to create a compatible IP platform showcased at the Beijing Pop Toy Show in August, indicating strong demand for both established and emerging IPs [1] Group 1: Sales Drivers - Key sales drivers for Pop Mart include the strong demand for its iconic IP products such as The Monsters, Skullpanda, and Molly, as well as the monetization of emerging IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby [1] - The company is also benefiting from ongoing overseas expansion and category diversification, which is expected to further penetrate customer life cycles [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais has raised its sales and adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart for the years 2025 to 2027 by 17% to 22% and 31% to 36%, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 10.1 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 300 HKD to 318 HKD, based on the company's mid-term potential in building a sustainable IP incubation and monetization platform [1] - The rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 6% from HKD 300 to HKD 318, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report highlights that Pop Mart showcased its commitment to building a compatible IP platform at the Beijing Pop Toy Expo held in August [1] - There is strong demand observed for emerging IPs such as Twinkle Twinkle, Crybaby, and KeyA [1] Group 2: Sales Growth Projections - The company is expected to benefit from a year-on-year growth of 113% in the domestic market and 412% in overseas markets [1] - Sales are projected to increase by 202% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Citic Securities raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 6% from HKD 300 to HKD 318, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - The report highlights the strong demand for emerging IPs such as Twinkle Twinkle, Crybaby, and KeyA, observed during the Beijing Pop Toy Expo held in August [1] - The company is expected to benefit from significant year-on-year growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with increases of 113% and 412% respectively, and anticipates a 202% year-on-year sales growth in the first half of 2025 [1]

在这个Labubu狂奔，Lafufu紧追的2025年，泡泡玛特势头正猛。 周四，泡泡玛特一度大涨近6%，最高触及293.40港元，刷新历史新高，截止8月8日收盘，总市值达到3733亿元。 图源来自泡泡玛特微博官方 在情绪消费的烘托下，泡泡玛特凭借其独特稀缺机制，以及引发的"错失恐惧症"效应，精准激发消费者的收藏和购买热情，Labubu一举成为年轻人不可或缺 的时尚单品。 图源来自泡泡玛特微博官方 然而，当投资者还在计算其单一IP天花板时，专业机构已把目光投向了更深处——那个能持续孵化新"Labubu"、催生下一个爆款的系统能力。 爆款IP以外，泡泡玛特又一个隐形引擎 时间回溯至两年前，当时的Labubu仅占集团销售额6%，而Crybaby和Twinkle Twinkle系列更是尚未起步。 而最近的北京潮玩展现场，Twinkle Twinkle展位前人头攒动，现场出售的IP相关手办、绘画作品、包袋和配饰等产品火速售罄，系列产品热度随之水涨船 高。 Crybaby的表现也同样亮眼，其生活方式产品线包括服装、配饰和家居用品，平均售价达到250元人民币以上。 2024年财报显示，CRYBABY（哭娃）的相关收入同比增 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Consumer Sector**: Focus on new and traditional consumer stocks - **Specific Companies**: Bubble Mart, Giant Bio, Yum China, Anta, Old Paved Gold, Chow Tai Fook, Haidilao, China Duty Free Group (CDFG), Macau Gaming Industry Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Stock Performance**: New consumer stocks underperformed the market, while traditional consumer stocks remained flat, influenced by policy expectations against "involution" [1][2] 2. **Investment Focus**: Emphasis on fundamental analysis for the second half of the year, with consumer confidence recovering but spending not significantly increasing [1][3] 3. **Stock Selection Criteria**: Maintain focus on performance reversal, high growth potential, and high return certainty [1][3] 4. **Recommendations**: - Dairy industry expected to balance supply and demand, leading to price recovery - Bubble Mart and Giant Bio identified as high-growth stocks - Yum China and Anta recommended for their strong governance and long-term holding potential [1][4][6][7] 5. **Bubble Mart's Performance**: After a strong earnings report, the stock experienced profit-taking, but is expected to see a profit growth of 40%-45% by 2026, with a PE ratio of 21-22 [1][11][12] 6. **Giant Bio's Growth**: Sales performance is strong, but faces high base pressure in Q4; potential for 20% profit compound growth over the next two years [1][17] 7. **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: High demand for premium products, but stable gold prices may affect growth rates; Old Paved Gold faces margin pressure [1][18][19] 8. **Macau Gaming Industry**: Exceeded expectations with GGR growth of 19% in June and July, driven by increased visitor numbers; full-year GGR growth target raised to 10% [1][24][25] 9. **Yum China's Stock Decline**: Stock price drop attributed to cautious revenue growth expectations; despite challenges, still viewed as a long-term holding [1][10] 10. **Haidilao's Challenges**: Facing pressure from macroeconomic factors and competition from food delivery platforms, leading to expected revenue decline [1][21] 11. **China Duty Free Group's Performance**: Underperformed expectations with an 8% revenue decline; future growth dependent on stability in Hainan and airport sales [1][22] 12. **Hotel Industry Outlook**: Poor performance in summer 2025, with RevPAR down 1-2%; future growth uncertain [1][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Bubble Mart's Supply Chain Strategy**: Focus on increasing capacity utilization and direct-to-consumer sales to balance supply and demand [1][15] 2. **Giant Bio's Innovation**: Emphasis on new product development and research to maintain competitive edge [1][17] 3. **Chow Tai Fook vs. Old Paved Gold**: Differing strategies in brand positioning and expansion, with Chow Tai Fook being more aggressive [1][20] 4. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: Shift in consumer perception towards collectible toys, with adults increasingly purchasing Bubble Mart products [1][26]