Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the collectibles and toys sector - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$39.443 billion as of October 28, 2025 - **Stock Rating**: Overweight with a price target of HK$382.00, representing a 67% upside from the current price of HK$228.20 [7][9] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance and Strategy - **Sales Growth Outlook**: The company is optimistic about sales growth into 2026, indicating that it has not fully utilized its growth levers in 2025 [2][4] - **Seasonal Demand**: Consumer demand for IP collectibles is expected to be strong in 4Q, with a robust new product pipeline prepared [4][9] - **Pre-order Impact**: Pre-orders of Labubu plush products significantly boosted 3Q sales, but limited pre-orders in 4Q may restrict supply, potentially offsetting seasonal demand [4][5][9] Product Management - **Product Lifecycle Management**: The company acknowledges that pre-orders may not align with its product lifecycle management strategy, as flooding the market can lead to IP exhaustion [5][9] - **Shift to In-stock Sales**: Management intends to return to in-stock sales to better manage product lifecycle and enhance recurring customer growth [9][10] Market Dynamics - **US Market Expansion**: Pop Mart views its US operations as still in early stages, with plans to open more high-traffic flagship stores in 2026-27 [13][14] - **Sales Mix**: The offline sales mix in the US is diversifying, with higher sales per store compared to other regions [13][14] Product Launches and Consumer Engagement - **New Product Launches**: New products are seen as critical growth drivers, with a focus on reducing supply of older products to prepare for new launches [10][21] - **Consumer Engagement Initiatives**: The company has engaged consumers through pop-up stores and outdoor IP-themed installations, particularly in the US [15][16] Supply Chain and Capacity Constraints - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The company faced capacity constraints affecting timely replenishment of Halloween products and Twinkle Twinkle collections [18][19][21] - **Future Capacity Plans**: Management expects suppliers to have more capacity in the coming year, which should alleviate current supply issues [19][21] Financial Guidance - **NPM Guidance**: The company maintains a 2025 Net Profit Margin (NPM) guidance of approximately 35%, with expectations for margin expansion driven by online growth in China [23][24] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Faster overseas growth, successful product rollouts, and retention of momentum in China are potential upside risks [26] - **Downside Risks**: Weak macroeconomic conditions, uncertainties related to new products, and challenges in overseas expansion pose risks [26] Additional Important Insights - **Social Media Influence**: The unexpected virality of Labubu on social media is seen as a catalyst for growth in the US market, but monetizing this requires ongoing operational efforts [16][17] - **Latam Market Assessment**: The company is evaluating Latin America for market potential and supply chain development, which could improve US operations [22] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's strategic focus on growth, product management, market dynamics, and financial outlook while addressing potential risks and challenges.

Core View - Pop Mart's revenue increased by 245-250% year-over-year (YoY) in 3Q25, surpassing market expectations, with strong growth driven by the popularity of Twinkle Twinkle and effective retail expansion [1][2] Revenue Growth - Total revenue growth accelerated in the domestic market, with a YoY increase of 185-190% in China, while overseas growth moderated to 365-370% YoY due to a higher comparison base [2] - In 3Q25, revenue from offline and online channels in China grew by 130-135% and 300-305% YoY, respectively, attributed to the success of Labubu 4.0 and Twinkle Twinkle [2] - Revenue in the US surged by 1,265-1,270% YoY and in Europe by 735-740% YoY, while growth in the Asia Pacific region slowed to 170-175% YoY [2] Product Performance - Twinkle Twinkle emerged as a breakout sensation in 3Q25, with newly launched collections consistently selling out and commanding a 100% premium in the secondary market [2] - Upcoming product launches, such as the Fresh-Baked Mini Cookies Series Plush Toys, are expected to support continued strong revenue growth in 4Q25 [2] Tariff Risks - Potential US tariff risks are manageable through strategic pricing adjustments and production capacity relocation to Vietnam [3] - The company demonstrated resilience in the face of tariff threats, successfully adjusting prices in the US during 1H25 [3] Valuation - Core net profit forecasts for 2025/26 have been revised up by 20%/23%, while the target price (TP) has been raised to HK$405.6 [5] - The target multiples for 2025E/26E P/E have been adjusted down to 38x/27x, reflecting expectations of gradual revenue growth deceleration [5]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a recent 9% drop following a peak in late August, despite reporting a substantial increase in third-quarter revenue driven by U.S. sales growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a more than threefold increase in third-quarter revenue year over year, with U.S. sales surging between 1,265% and 1,270% [1]. - Since August, Pop Mart's stock has declined by 30%, although it remains up 159% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Market Concerns - There are growing concerns that the demand for Labubu dolls may be waning, as resale prices on platforms like Qiandao have dropped significantly from previous highs [2][3]. - The resale price of the Labubu character Luck fell from over 500 yuan (approximately $70) to 108 yuan (about $15) [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pop Mart has increased its supply of plush toys tenfold this year, now manufacturing around 30 million units monthly [4]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the second-hand market prices may not accurately reflect the true supply and demand situation due to Pop Mart's efforts to limit scalping [4]. Group 4: Brand Popularity and Growth Opportunities - The popularity of Labubu dolls has been enhanced by endorsements from celebrities like Rihanna and David Beckham [5]. - Emerging characters such as Twinkle Twinkle and global expansion opportunities are also contributing to Pop Mart's growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Pop Mart's third-quarter revenue increased by 245% year-on-year to 250 million, with domestic and overseas sales growing by 185% to 190% and 365% to 370% respectively, exceeding expectations due to strong sales in China, Asia-Pacific, and Europe [1] Group 1 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on Pop Mart, citing the rising popularity of its IP product Twinkle Twinkle and the stable trend in the secondary market prices of Labubu [1] - Upcoming catalysts such as Christmas-themed product series are anticipated to further enhance stock performance, supported by improving high-frequency data like credit card tracking [1] Group 2 - Based on DCF valuation, UBS raises Pop Mart's target price from HKD 432 to HKD 435 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 13% to 17% to reflect the strong third-quarter performance [1]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group - **Industry**: Art Toy Culture in China - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December 2020 - **Key IPs**: Labubu, Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby, Dimoo - **Retail Presence**: Operated 401 stores in mainland China and 120 stores outside mainland China as of end-2024 [22][24] Financial Performance - **Q3 2025 Revenue Growth**: Revenues increased by 245-250% YoY, exceeding expectations of 180% YoY - **Domestic Sales**: Up 185-190% YoY - **Overseas Sales**: Up 365-370% YoY - **Domestic Offline/Online Sales**: Grew by 130-135% and 300-305% YoY, respectively - **Regional Sales Growth**: APAC (170-175%), America (1265-1270%), Europe (735-740%) [2][3] Market Trends and Product Development - **Popularity of Twinkle Twinkle**: Gaining traction with Halloween series pricing 2-3x original prices - **Expansion of Twinkle Twinkle Ecosystem**: Includes media content, interactive performances, and planned animation shorts [3] - **Labubu's Halloween Collection**: Maintains high premium, indicating strong brand appeal [4] Global Expansion - **European Market Performance**: Strong sales momentum in the UK and France, with Labubu's commercialisation potential still underfulfilled [4] - **Future Catalysts**: Anticipation of Christmas-themed collections and improved high-frequency data to drive stock momentum [2][3] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Price Target**: HK$435, revised from HK$432, reflecting a 13-17% increase in adjusted net income forecast for 2025-2027 [5][6] - **Current Stock Price**: HK$250.40 as of 21 October 2025 [6][38] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: HK$336 billion (approximately US$43.3 billion) - **52-week Price Range**: HK$335.40 - HK$63.45 - **P/BV (12/25E)**: 16.1x - **EPS Forecasts**: - 2025E: Rmb 9.70 (up 17% from previous forecast) - 2026E: Rmb 12.34 (up 15%) - 2027E: Rmb 15.43 (up 13%) [7][8] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: - Economic slowdown in China affecting consumer spending - Increased competition from internet firms - Regulatory scrutiny on blind box formats - Fashion risk associated with existing IPs [23][24] - **Company-Specific Risks**: - Difficulty in attracting and retaining consumers with new IPs - Challenges in expanding into lower-tier cities due to affordability issues - Profitability pressures from investments in new initiatives [24] Conclusion - Pop Mart International Group shows strong financial performance and growth potential, particularly in the domestic and overseas markets. The company is well-positioned for future growth with its expanding product ecosystem and upcoming seasonal collections. However, it faces several risks that could impact its performance in the competitive landscape of the art toy industry.

Summary of Pop Mart's 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$43.293 billion as of October 21, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Sales Growth**: Pop Mart reported a sales growth of **245-250%** in 3Q25, significantly higher than the estimated **180%**. This growth accelerated from **~235%** in 2Q25 [2][4] - **Regional Performance**: - **Greater China**: Sales increased by **185-190%** - **Overseas Markets**: Sales surged by **365-370%** - **APAC**: Up **170-175%** - **Americas**: Up **1265-1270%** - **Europe**: Up **735-740%** [2] - **Net Profit Growth**: Expected net profit growth of **291%** for 2025, **25%** for 2026, and **21%** for 2027 [2] Earnings Estimates and Valuation - **Price Target**: Maintained at **HK$382**, reflecting a **31x** P/E for 2026 estimates, down from **42x** for 2025 estimates [3][20] - **Earnings Growth**: Despite a moderation in growth, the company is projected to achieve **20-25%** earnings growth, which is considered rare in the current consumer sector context [3][20] - **Valuation Metrics**: The price target implies a PEG ratio of **1.4x** based on a **23%** CAGR for 2025-2027 [20] Market Dynamics - **Global Demand**: The unexpected growth acceleration indicates a stronger global demand than anticipated, particularly for Pop Mart's popular IPs like Labubu [1][4] - **US Market**: The US market is seen as having potential for improvement, with sales increments in 3Q25 similar to those in 2Q25, indicating room for growth [9] - **China's Resilience**: Strong demand in Greater China countered broader macroeconomic weaknesses, with offline sales up **130-135%** and online sales up **300-305%** [10] Product and IP Strategy - **New Product Launches**: Upcoming collections from top IPs are expected to drive further sales, with Twinkle Twinkle gaining traction [5] - **Supply Chain Management**: The company is adjusting its supply strategy to allocate more bestsellers to offline channels, which may enhance customer engagement despite lower logistics efficiency [13] Risks and Considerations - **Market Concerns**: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of sales growth, particularly in the context of potential macroeconomic challenges [4][22] - **Capacity Constraints**: Some seasonal products have been delayed due to capacity issues, which may affect sales in the short term [13] Conclusion - Pop Mart's strong performance in 3Q25 highlights its robust growth trajectory and effective market penetration strategies. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on global demand for collectibles, although it must navigate potential risks associated with market dynamics and operational challenges. The maintained price target reflects confidence in its growth potential despite a more conservative outlook for future earnings growth.

Core Insights - Bubble Mart's Q3 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year, driven by strong IP momentum and supply capacity expansion [1][3][9] - The company achieved remarkable growth in both domestic and international markets, with overseas revenue increasing by 365%-370% and the Americas experiencing explosive growth of over 1265% [1][4] Revenue Growth - Q3 revenue growth reached 245%-250%, accelerating from 204% in the first half of the year, surpassing market consensus [3] - Domestic revenue growth in China improved to 185%-190%, significantly higher than the previous 135% [3] - Online sales surged by 300%-305%, while offline sales grew by 130%-135% [3] International Market Performance - The U.S. market saw a staggering growth of 1265%-1270%, while Europe maintained a strong growth rate of 735%-740% [4] - The Asia-Pacific market (excluding China) grew by 170%-175%, a slowdown from the previous 258% [5] IP Development and Product Launches - The company is diversifying its IP portfolio, with new IPs like "Twinkle Twinkle" gaining market recognition, which helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP [6] - Ongoing marketing activities and product launches are expected to drive further growth, particularly during the upcoming holiday season [7] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Multiple investment banks, including Nomura, Citigroup, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, have raised their earnings forecasts and target prices for Bubble Mart, maintaining "buy" ratings [2][8] - HSBC raised its target price from 379 HKD to 392.50 HKD, reflecting a 3.6% increase, while Goldman Sachs maintained its target price at 350 HKD [8][10] Future Growth Prospects - Analysts believe that the visibility of growth remains high for Q4, supported by seasonal demand and new product launches [7] - The expected compound annual growth rate for overseas revenue from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted to 42% by HSBC [5]

Summary of Pop Mart Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: IP Merchandise Market in China Key Points and Arguments Rating Upgrade - **Upgrade to Overweight (OW)**: Rating upgraded from Neutral to Overweight with a new price target (PT) of HK$320, up from HK$300 [1][4][18] - **Recent Share Price Movement**: Share price declined 24% from HK$335.40 (August 26) to HK$254 (October 2), while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) gained 7% during the same period, indicating a conservative investor sentiment [1][19] Financial Forecasts - **Earnings Growth**: Forecasted sales and adjusted earnings growth of 165% and 276% year-over-year (yoy) in 2025, with 204% and 372% growth in 1H25 and 144% and 234% in 2H25, respectively [1][17] - **2026 Projections**: Expected growth of 28% in sales and 29% in adjusted earnings in 2026 [1] - **Valuation**: Trading at 20x 2026 P/E, considered attractive compared to other consumer names [1][22] Upcoming Catalysts - **Operational Results**: 3Q25 operational results expected in late October [1][11] - **Seasonal Sales**: Anticipated strong sales for Halloween and Christmas [1][11] - **New Releases**: Launch of "Labubu & Friends" animation in December and Labubu 4.0 in March/April 2026 [1][11] Sales Momentum - **Strong Demand for IPs**: Continued strong sales momentum for Labubu and Twinkle Twinkle, with Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu sold out despite a 10x increase in production capacity [1][8][22] - **Twinkle Twinkle's Performance**: New plush series "Why So Serious" sold out within minutes, indicating a growing fan base [1][8] Global Market Considerations - **US Market Importance**: Sales contribution from the Americas expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027 [1][29] - **Tariff Impact Preparedness**: Pop Mart has prepared inventory for the US shopping season and can adjust retail prices to offset potential tariff impacts [1][29][30] Supply Chain Strategy - **Global Supply Chain Expansion**: Plans to establish six manufacturing centers globally, with four in China and two elsewhere, to mitigate tariff risks [1][29] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Estimates**: Revised revenue estimates for 2025E at Rmb34.5 billion, 2026E at Rmb44.1 billion, and 2027E at Rmb53.5 billion, reflecting a 5-8% increase [1][26] - **Adjusted EPS Growth**: Adjusted EPS for 2025E raised to Rmb9.09 from Rmb8.66 [1][6] Investment Thesis - **Market Leadership**: Pop Mart is a leader in China's fast-growing IP merchandise market with a strong portfolio of over 100 IPs and a significant global presence [1][11][28] - **Diversified IP Portfolio**: Labubu expected to contribute 35% of 2027 sales, with a diversified portfolio minimizing business disruption risks [1][31] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Pop Mart's strong IP sourcing and monetization capabilities, along with its global expansion strategy, position it favorably for long-term growth in the consumer market [1][28]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights Pop Mart's efforts to create a compatible IP platform showcased at the Beijing Pop Toy Show in August, indicating strong demand for both established and emerging IPs [1] Group 1: Sales Drivers - Key sales drivers for Pop Mart include the strong demand for its iconic IP products such as The Monsters, Skullpanda, and Molly, as well as the monetization of emerging IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby [1] - The company is also benefiting from ongoing overseas expansion and category diversification, which is expected to further penetrate customer life cycles [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais has raised its sales and adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart for the years 2025 to 2027 by 17% to 22% and 31% to 36%, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 10.1 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 300 HKD to 318 HKD, based on the company's mid-term potential in building a sustainable IP incubation and monetization platform [1] - The rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 6% from HKD 300 to HKD 318, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report highlights that Pop Mart showcased its commitment to building a compatible IP platform at the Beijing Pop Toy Expo held in August [1] - There is strong demand observed for emerging IPs such as Twinkle Twinkle, Crybaby, and KeyA [1] Group 2: Sales Growth Projections - The company is expected to benefit from a year-on-year growth of 113% in the domestic market and 412% in overseas markets [1] - Sales are projected to increase by 202% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1]