Summary of China/Hong Kong Consumer Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The consumer sector in China/Hong Kong entered 2026 with a mixed setup after three years of underperformance, with no immediate catalysts for a broad-based turnaround [1][3] - Headline consumption is expected to remain soft, necessitating flexible strategies across different sub-categories [1][3] Core Insights - **Macro Environment**: The macroeconomic backdrop has not turned decisively, with policy expected to be reactive rather than proactive regarding property and consumption. A property shock is anticipated to moderate but not end in 2026 [3][22] - **Consumer Dynamics**: Wage and employment levels remain subdued, contributing to ongoing household deleveraging and a drag on labor income dynamics. High precautionary savings and low spending confidence are prevalent [3][22] - **Consumption Growth**: Consumption in 2026 is likely to stabilize at a low growth rate rather than re-accelerate significantly. Focus is on selective segment pricing improvements and better supply discipline [3][23] Market Expectations - **Sales Growth**: Overall consumer sales growth is expected to be around 6% in 2026, with a mixed margin profile due to rising costs in certain areas like hard commodities [4][31] - **Valuation**: Consumer stocks' average P/E ratio is stabilizing around 16x, reflecting a cautious market outlook for 2026 [4][31] Investment Opportunities - Four key investment areas identified: 1. Recovery in offline services consumption (restaurants and beer in Q2-Q3 2026) 2. Supply recalibration in upstream dairy and likely liquor in H2 2026 3. Pricing recovery in restaurants, beer in H1 2026, and sports/cosmetics/liquor in H2 2026 4. Overseas growth in OEM and IP products in H1 2026 [5][21] Key Stock Picks - Recommended stocks include: - **YUMC**: Positive same-store sales growth and traffic - **Haidilao**: Recovery in dine-in demand - **CRB**: Expected growth driven by Heineken's market share gains - **Mengniu and Yili**: Anticipated margin improvements due to reduced raw milk supply [9][13] Macro Indicators - **CPI Trends**: Headline CPI is expected to show low inflation, with selective segments starting to see mild upward pricing revisions [24][27] - **Wealth Effect**: The wealth effect is differentiated across income cohorts, with higher-income groups showing improved spending intentions due to healthier balance sheets [27][31] Risks and Challenges - **Consumer Confidence**: The overall consumer sentiment remains fragile, with market sensitivity to marginal changes [20][22] - **Policy Limitations**: Current consumption-related policies are focused on protecting downside rather than stimulating growth, with limited fiscal support expected [22][27] Conclusion - The consumer sector is navigating a challenging macro environment with cautious optimism for selective recovery in certain segments. Investment strategies should focus on identifying pockets of resilience and potential growth areas while being mindful of the broader economic constraints.

格隆汇2月10日｜延续近期涨势，泡泡玛特(9992.HK)今日盘中再度涨近5%至270港元，股价创去年10月 以来新高，且较今年1月19日的最低价(174.3港元)反弹55%。 公司日前公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全 球销售超1亿只。 华西证券近日发布研报称，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望迎来 新年开门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值；维持"买入"评级。 摩根士丹利发表研报指，泡泡玛特旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强大受欢迎程度，将持 续推动其IP产品运转。大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品 Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事 会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品 争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。大摩予泡泡玛特目标价325港元，评 级"增持"，认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线 ...

February 5, 2026 04:15 PM GMT Pop Mart | Asia Pacific Thoughts on Stock Rebound and Market Feedback Pop Mart's buybacks are an effective catalyst, enhancing near- term risk/reward for dip buyers. Strong popularity of the new products from Twinkle Twinkle and Skullpanda will keep its IP- product flywheel spinning. The stock likely has more room to run in March-April given investors' positions. Recap of stock rebound: Pop Mart is up 38% from its low on January 16 (vs. the HSI down 1%). Its share buyback was t ...

责任编辑：栎树 大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat的合作、 据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响 力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销资源，这 对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。大摩予泡泡玛特目标价325港元，评级"增持"，认为随着中国及海外 市场销售动能持续，加上产品线扩展良好和以IP为中心的新举措，可能会迎来估值重估。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 2月9日，摩根士丹利发表研报指，泡泡玛特旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强大受欢迎程 度，将持续推动其IP产品运转。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，泡泡玛特旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强大受欢迎程度，将持 续推动其IP产品运转。大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品 Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事 会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品 争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。大摩予泡泡玛特目标价325港元，评 级"增持"，认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线扩展良好和以IP为中心的新举措，可能 会迎来估值重估。 ...

Group 1 - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 14.859 billion on February 6, with HK Stock Connect (Shanghai) contributing HKD 7.113 billion and HK Stock Connect (Shenzhen) contributing HKD 7.746 billion [2] - The most net bought stocks included Tencent (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) [2] - The most net sold stock was Longi Green Energy (601869) [2] Group 2 - Alibaba-W had a net inflow of HKD 9.34 billion, with a buy amount of HKD 26.62 billion and a sell amount of HKD 17.28 billion [3] - Tencent recorded a net inflow of HKD 23.73 billion, with a buy amount of HKD 33.35 billion and a sell amount of HKD 9.62 billion [3] - Longi Green Energy had a net inflow of HKD 1.16 billion, with a buy amount of HKD 10.81 billion and a sell amount of HKD 9.65 billion [3] Group 3 - Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Meituan-W received net purchases of HKD 43.24 billion, HKD 16.55 billion, and HKD 3.1 billion respectively [6] - The competition in the consumer AI sector is intensifying, with expectations that the final entry points will remain concentrated among Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance [6] - Bubble Mart (09992) received a net purchase of HKD 5.89 billion, driven by stock buybacks and strong demand for new IP products [6] Group 4 - Semiconductor industry price increases are ongoing, with domestic chip manufacturers announcing price hikes of up to 80% [6] - SMIC (00981) received a net purchase of HKD 4.5 billion, benefiting from the price increase trend in the semiconductor supply chain [6] - China Mobile (00941) received a net purchase of HKD 2.72 billion, with analysts noting that the impact of VAT rate increases on net profit will be relatively smaller due to its higher profit margins [7]

港股通(深)活跃成交股 北水继续抢筹科网股，腾讯(00700)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、美团-W(03690)分别获净买入43.24亿、16.55亿、3.1亿港元。消 息面上，微信于2月6日进一步封禁了阿里千问与腾讯元宝两大AI应用的红包活动口令，致使其在私聊与群聊中无法复制识 别。高盛发布研报称，中国消费级AI领域的竞争在今年春节前进一步升级，预计AI的最终入口仍将集中于腾讯控股、阿里 巴巴及字节跳动。 泡泡玛特(09992)获净买入5.89亿港元。消息面上，大摩认为，泡泡玛特的股票回购是一种有效的催化剂，旗下新IP产品 Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强大受欢迎程度，将持续推动其IP产品运转。考虑到投资者的持仓状况，该股在3月至4月可 能仍有上涨空间。 智通财经APP获悉，2月6日港股市场，北水成交净买入148.59亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入71.13亿港元，港股通(深) 成交净买入77.46亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、南方恒生科技(03033)。北水净卖出最多的个股是长飞光纤光 缆(06869)。 | 股票名称 | 买 ...

宏观而言，大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与 Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事会，显示泡 泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品争取到更有 效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 而据大摩的市场反馈，一些投资者认为公司的股票回购并未改变其悲观的前景，当中的考量包括美国信 用卡数据、转售价格和社交媒体关注度等。故认为空头的头寸在公司在3月下旬发布财报之前，可能会 持续处于高位。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，予泡泡玛特(09992)目标价325港元，基于2026年预测26倍市盈率;评级"增持"; 认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线扩展良好和以IP为中心的新举措，可能会迎来估值 重估。相较于全球大型消费类公司，预测集团盈利增长将显著更高。 大摩认为，泡泡玛特的股票回购是一种有效的催化剂，旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强 大受欢迎程度，将持续推动其IP产品运转。考虑到投资者的持仓状况，该股在3月至4月可能仍有上涨空 ...

宏观而言，大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与 Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事会，显示泡 泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可， 并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品争取到更 有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 而据大摩的市场反馈，一些投资者认为公司的股票回购并未改变其悲观的前景，当中的考量包括美国信 用卡数据、转售价格和社交媒体关注度等。故认为空头的头寸在公司在3月下旬发布财报之前，可能会 持续处于高位。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，予泡泡玛特(09992)目标价325港元，基于2026年预测26倍 市盈率; 评级"增持"; 认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线扩展良好和以IP为中心的新举 措，可能会迎来估值重估。相较于全球大型消费类公司，预测集团盈利增长将显著更高。 大摩认为，泡泡玛特的股票回购是一种有效的催化剂，旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda 的强 大受欢迎程度，将持续推动其IP产品运转。考虑到投资者的持仓状况，该 ...

Investment Rating - Pop Mart is rated as a Top Buy in China's consumer sector, with a target price of HK$415.00, representing an expected return of 92.0% from the current price of HK$216.20 [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pop Mart's user base is growing globally, with 76% of survey participants making their first purchase within one year, and 45% within three months [2][12]. - A significant 87% of respondents expressed a likelihood to purchase Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new product series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [3][30]. - Brand perception is strong, with 54% of respondents very satisfied and 39% somewhat satisfied, indicating a positive emotional connection with the brand [4][46]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior - 76% of respondents had their first Pop Mart purchase within one year, with 45% within three months [2][12]. - 34% shop for Pop Mart products every month, and 29% every three months, indicating high purchase frequency [12][14]. - 90% of respondents own at least two Pop Mart items, with the US having the highest per capita ownership [18][25]. Purchase Drivers - 87% of respondents are likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, with new series and limited editions being key drivers [3][30]. - 93% plan to buy Pop Mart products in the future, with 48% maintaining current purchase frequency and 26% planning to buy more often [36][39]. - Wider product range, better quality, and lower prices are cited as factors that could increase purchase frequency [40]. Brand Perception - 54% of respondents are very satisfied with Pop Mart, with the highest satisfaction in the US at 70% [46][48]. - Gift-giving and collection/hobby are the top reasons for purchasing, with emotional satisfaction also playing a significant role [48][50]. - Character design, rarity/exclusivity, and emotional connection are highly valued attributes of Pop Mart products [51]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2026 is Rmb 18,357 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 13.763, reflecting a growth of 35.5% [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin of around 72% in 2026 [10]. Market Dynamics - The survey indicates that Pop Mart's user base continues to grow despite concerns about secondary market prices, with only 9% of respondents purchasing from secondhand platforms [2][27]. - The brand's strong presence in physical stores, especially in China, contrasts with higher online purchase ratios in the US and UK [27][29].