Core Viewpoint - The "Labubu economy" is facing significant challenges as the secondary market's premium ability declines, leading to a loss of appeal for Pop Mart in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Investors are reassessing whether Pop Mart can maintain its high growth narrative and if its core IP is merely a fleeting trend [2] - Reports of weakened demand from scalpers have caused Pop Mart's stock to drop by 6.2%, marking its largest decline in three weeks and making it one of the worst performers in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [2] - Since peaking in August, Pop Mart's stock has fallen approximately 44%, resulting in a market value loss of over $25 billion [5] Group 2: Secondary Market Dynamics - The sell-off was triggered by reports of significant price volatility in the secondary market, indicating weak demand and causing some scalpers to halt their stockpiling activities [4] - Data from the resale platform Qianshao shows that the average price of the mini Labubu set has fallen below the official retail price, with the "Sit Down" series dropping from nearly $400 to about $110 [8] Group 3: Growth Concerns and Market Expansion - Pop Mart's revenue growth in North America has slowed to 424%, halving compared to the previous quarter [10] - Despite aggressive marketing efforts, disappointing performance during the U.S. Black Friday and cooling resale demand have raised concerns about Pop Mart's long-term viability as a brand comparable to Disney or Sanrio [11] Group 4: Valuation and Diversification Efforts - Some institutional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to negative market sentiment and uncertainties regarding future earnings per share [14] - Pop Mart is attempting to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP by investing in other IPs and expanding into the entertainment sector, including theme parks and film development [15]

2025年10月12日，THE MONSTERS诞生十周年全球展览首站在上海正式开幕 ◎记者 罗茂林 2025年的最后两周，在上海徐汇区西岸梦中心，一场以"眼泪"为主题的展览吸引了无数年轻人驻足。主 角是来自泡泡玛特旗下的IP形象——眼泪汪汪的Crybaby。用主办方的话来说，这是一场围绕"哭泣与勇 气"的叙事。 不少投资人坦言，不理解为什么一个小玩具会这么火？而事实也是如此，泡泡玛特标榜的"潮流玩具"， 在很长一段时间都只是一个艺术圈的小众概念。 潮流玩具，无疑是这一消费心理变迁的见证者。 从风靡全球的LABUBU，到象征情绪稳定的"卡皮巴拉"，伴随情绪经济的风靡，一批IP受到年轻人追 捧，一批潮玩公司也站在了资本的聚光灯下。 潮玩产业迈向千亿元大关 2025年8月，港股泡泡玛特发布2025年上半年财报，彼时LABUBU正在全球范围内掀起一场热潮。财报 显示：在2024年高基数的背景下，2025年上半年泡泡玛特营收为138.8亿元，同比增长204.4%；经调整 净利润为47.1亿元，同比增长362.8%。董事长兼CEO王宁笑称："预计今年收入能达到300亿元。" 然而在2024年之前，外界对于这家"潮玩"公 ...

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends in Shanghai - Shanghai's consumer market is vibrant and diverse as it approaches the end of 2025, featuring emotional and practical values that cater to both spiritual and daily needs [1] - The "Crybaby" exhibition, a collaboration between Pop Mart and artist Molly, is the largest of its kind globally, showcasing a unique emotional experience [2][3] - The exhibition includes an immersive "tear ball pool" and interactive experiences, emphasizing the importance of emotional expression in contemporary society [5] Group 2: Local E-commerce Initiatives - The local e-commerce platform i百联 is launching a "Year-End Gratitude Season" with significant discounts and promotions aimed at providing tangible benefits to consumers [6] - The platform features a selection of popular products based on real transaction data, including electronics and traditional brands, enhancing consumer satisfaction [8] - The initiative also highlights local "old brand" products, allowing consumers to reconnect with familiar tastes in a fast-paced environment [8] Group 3: Health Initiatives for the Elderly - The aging population in China is prompting initiatives to address health challenges, particularly neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer's [9] - Danone Nutricia is launching a "Memory Guardian" project to train nutritionists in brain health assessment and intervention strategies [9] - The "智敏捷" product, designed for individuals with cognitive decline, has received recognition for its scientific formulation and clinical research backing [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Pop Mart (9992.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, surpassing 4% to reach 200 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 269.66 billion HKD [1] - The Crybaby exhibition in Shanghai is scheduled from December 20, 2025, to January 25, 2026, at the West Bund Dream Center, which is expected to attract a diverse audience and enhance brand visibility [1] - The exhibition will feature large-scale art installations and limited edition products that require online purchase for in-store pickup, providing new revenue streams beyond product sales [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the exhibition could lead to increased social media engagement, enhancing brand presence and extending the IP lifecycle through diverse operational strategies [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that the appointment of Wu Yue to Pop Mart's board reflects the company's successful resource acquisition for new business development and recognition of its IP in fashion and entertainment [1] - This recognition boosts confidence in Pop Mart's ability to deploy impactful marketing and product resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's trendy toy business is increasingly connecting with the luxury goods sector, as evidenced by the appointment of LVMH's Greater China President, Wu Yue, to its board of directors [2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - Wu Yue's appointment may indicate Pop Mart's further exploration into the core circle of international fashion trends [3]. - The company has been compared to luxury brands like Hermes due to its high gross margin of nearly 70% since its performance explosion [3]. - Pop Mart's collaboration with LVMH and its luxury brands could signify a shift from mere marketing to deeper strategic interactions [13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for scarcity is a common pursuit in both the trendy toy and luxury goods industries, where exclusivity enhances social status and identity recognition [6]. - Pop Mart's products, particularly in the secondary market, have seen a decline in premium pricing, indicating a cooling of consumer interest compared to previous "one toy hard to find" scenarios [4][11]. - The company aims to balance IP value, scarcity, and revenue scalability, which remains a long-term challenge [15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first half of 2025, the MEGA series generated nearly 1 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of total revenue [10]. - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 45% since its peak, with a market capitalization loss exceeding 200 billion HKD, reflecting investor concerns over declining resale prices and market sentiment [16][17]. - The company is facing a "availability paradox," where increased production capacity is transforming its core IP LABUBU from a scarce trend symbol to a mass-market product, potentially signaling a decline in popularity [19]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Pop Mart is expanding its international presence, with plans to open 200 new stores by the end of the year, maintaining a pace of approximately three new stores per week [14]. - The company is also diversifying its IP portfolio, with notable growth from new IPs like CRYBABY and Star People, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [14]. - Collaborations with major brands and the development of immersive experiences are part of Pop Mart's strategy to deepen emotional connections with consumers [27].

申万宏源发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"买入"评级，泡泡玛特凭借丰富的IP矩阵与成熟的运营能 力，持续激活海外市场，线下渠道快速铺开，节日新品屡次引发销售热潮，此外伴随Labubu等头部IP的 全球走红，公司品牌力显著提升。看好中长期公司的赛道、管理和经营能力、竞争格局。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 全球化进程有条不紊，看好海外供应链及渠道扩张，承接全球粉丝需求 1)Labubu单一IP的曲线：泡泡已验证自身长线IP运营能力(Molly、SP)，可以通过产品创新与迭代维持粉 丝粘性，关注后续主力产品线。2)Labubu单个IP占比健康(25H1收入占比35%)，其他IP：SP、星星人有 明显破圈，而当前泡泡粉丝基数大有初始流量优势，关注后续产品及营销活动可能带来进一步破圈(星 星人乐园表演、动画);3)平台化站上新的台阶：随Labubu全球爆火以及一众头部IP的火热，泡泡全球品 牌力也实现跃升，11月27日泡泡多个IP参与纽约梅西百货感恩节大游行。 长期看好公司商业模式壁垒及持续性 该行认为泡泡从IP设计、运营、供应链等均是全球最有竞争力的公司，可以通过运营实现IP长周期价值 (单个IP曲线能通过运营改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong IP matrix and operational capabilities that continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1] Group 1: Global Expansion and Market Demand - The globalization process is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding overseas supply chains and channels to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category has strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the number of overseas retail stores reached 171, with significant growth potential in North America (62 stores), Europe (28 stores), and Southeast Asia (44 stores) [1] - The recent Halloween product launches in North America have generated strong sales, and the upcoming holiday season is expected to boost social engagement and revenue growth for new IPs like Labubu [1] Group 2: Brand Strength and IP Development - The success of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the brand's strength significantly improving [2] - Labubu's revenue contribution is healthy, and the company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other key IPs has elevated Pop Mart's brand presence, exemplified by participation in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Model Viability - The company is viewed as one of the most competitive globally in terms of IP design, operation, and supply chain, capable of realizing long-term value through effective IP management [3] - Recent product launches have maintained a slight premium, indicating a healthier supply-demand ecosystem compared to June, which is beneficial for cultivating long-term fans [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady progress of globalization, with a positive outlook on overseas supply chain and channel expansion to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category possesses strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the company has expanded its overseas retail store count to 171, aligning with its strategic plan, with significant growth potential in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia [1] Group 2 - The performance of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the company's brand strength significantly improving [2] - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other leading IPs has elevated the company's brand power, as evidenced by participation in major events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 38.865 billion, 52.738 billion, and 66.946 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on store openings and product launches [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 13.648 billion, 18.429 billion, and 23.569 billion, indicating confidence in the company's long-term operational capabilities and competitive landscape [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on cross-regional expansion and IP development to support long-term operations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit projected over the next few years [7]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas retail presence, with 171 stores globally, and is well-positioned to meet growing demand from international markets [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand power and competitive advantages in IP design, operation, and supply chain management, which are expected to sustain long-term value creation [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from RMB 6.301 billion in 2023 to RMB 66.946 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 1.184 billion in 2023 to RMB 23.569 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 28% [5][8]. - The report anticipates a significant rise in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 17.55 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [5][8].

Company Overview - The company participated in the CICC annual strategy meeting, discussing overseas markets, IP sustainability, and supply chain rhythm, reaffirming confidence in its business model and long-term growth potential, highlighting bottom-fishing opportunities [1] Market Growth - The North American market has shown consistent performance since 2025, with the company establishing a comprehensive channel system. Q3 pre-sales have increased online sales, while offline channels remain crucial for IP expression and experience delivery. Supply chain and logistics adjustments present challenges, but seasonal performance is expected to improve with more quality stores and local experience accumulation [1] IP Commercialization - The decline in secondary market prices does not necessarily indicate a peak in IP popularity. The price fluctuations are influenced by the release schedule, with current supply levels exceeding secondary market transaction volumes. The increased availability of popular products enhances consumer experience and indicates broader customer reach for core IPs, supporting future growth [2] IP Lifecycle Management - The recent drop in search interest for popular IPs raises concerns about their lifecycle. However, the lifecycle is driven by product and content, and evaluating it solely on search trends is overly simplistic. Continuous product releases, innovation, and collaborations provide ample growth opportunities, with the company's operational capabilities expected to drive further scale. Secondary IPs are also showing rapid growth, confirming the company's platform advantages [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3.3% and 4.6% to 137 billion and 177 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 20x and 15x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026. The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 370 HKD, implying a 71% upside potential based on 33x and 26x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]