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泡泡玛特(09992):2025年半年报点评:业绩超预期,继续看好优质IP在全球市场的商业价值潜力
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-20 15:36
证券研究报告·海外公司点评·家庭电器及用品(HS) 泡泡玛特(09992.HK) 2025 年半年报点评:业绩超预期,继续看好 优质 IP 在全球市场的商业价值潜力 买入(维持) | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6,301 | 13,038 | 30,480 | 42,818 | 52,361 | | 同比(%) | 36.46 | 106.92 | 133.78 | 40.48 | 22.29 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,082 | 3,125 | 10,045 | 14,256 | 17,791 | | 同比(%) | 127.55 | 188.77 | 221.40 | 41.92 | 24.80 | | Non-IFRS 净利润(百万元) | 1,191 | 3,403 | 10,689 | 15,146 | 18,888 | | 同比(%) | 107.57 | 185.86 | 214.0 ...
泡泡玛特:初评 -2025 年上半年净利润超高盛预期,盈利预警显示营业利润率超预期扩张,前景是关键所在
Goldman Sachs· 2025-08-20 04:51
19 August 2025 | 9:37PM HKT Pop Mart (9992.HK): First Take: 1H bottom line above GSe/profit alert with stronger-than-expected OPM expansion, outlook the key to Pop Mart reported 1H25 revenue/NP to equity holders yoy growth at 204%/396%, 1%/10% above GSe, compared to >200% revenue growth/>350% group profit (excluding the unaccounted fair value changes of financial instruments) growth in profit alert. The higher-than-expected bottom line was attributable to bigger-than-expected OPM expansion, higher non opera ...
中信里昂:升泡泡玛特目标至318港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 03:52
中信里昂发布研报称,将泡泡玛特(09992)目标价从300港元上调6%至318港元,并维持"跑赢大市"评 级。报告指,泡泡玛特于8月举办北京泡泡玩具展,展示集团致力于打造的兼容IP平台。该行观察到, 市场对Twinkle Twinkle、Crybaby以及KeyA等新兴IP的需求强劲。该行表示,受惠于内地及海外市场同 比增长113%及412%,预计2025年上半年销售额同比增长202%。 ...
二线IP势能快速提升,泡泡玛特潮玩平台属性凸显,聚焦港股消费ETF(513230)布局窗口
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-18 06:48
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.96%, with retail and automotive sectors leading the gains [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 35.67 billion, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Hong Kong consumer sector showed slight fluctuations during the midday session, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) rising nearly 1%, driven by stocks like Great Wall Motors, Pop Mart, Geely, and Chow Tai Fook [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reported that the potential of second-tier IPs is rapidly increasing, with Pop Mart establishing a strong platform for trendy toys, driven by leading IPs [2] - In the UK market, the top three IPs by cumulative sales on TikTok Shops are Labubu (52%), Crybaby (26%), and SKULLPANDA (9%), while in the Philippines, the leading IPs are Xiaoye (46%) and Crybaby (40%) [2] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing major players in both new consumption and internet e-commerce sectors, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mi Xue Group [2]
泡泡玛特涨近6%再创历史新高,市值逼近4000亿港元!摩根士丹利:公司平台价值可能被低估,目标价365港元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-07 02:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Pop Mart (9992.HK) has seen a significant increase in its stock price, reaching a historical high of 293.4 HKD, with a market capitalization approaching 400 billion HKD [1] - Morgan Stanley's recent report suggests that Pop Mart's platform value may be underestimated, noting that the company currently sells products in four regions, primarily sourcing its own IP from Greater China, with exceptions from Thailand and the USA [3] - The report indicates that Pop Mart has substantial potential to explore rich artistic resources in the USA, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia, predicting that its IP and product portfolio will become more culturally diverse over the next 3-5 years [3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley believes that the intrinsic value of Pop Mart far exceeds its current IP holdings, a point that the market has overlooked, maintaining an "overweight" rating and a target price of 365 HKD, which corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for this year [3]
参观完北京潮玩展后,大摩喊出:泡泡玛特平台价值被低估了
美股IPO· 2025-08-05 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The success of Pop Mart is attributed to its platform capabilities rather than a single IP, with emerging IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby expected to significantly contribute to revenue in the coming years [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Platform Value - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the market underestimates Pop Mart's platform value and its IP incubation capabilities, which are seen as the core long-term investment value [3][6]. - The focus on a single IP's ceiling has led investors to overlook the company's broader platform capabilities [3][6]. Emerging IP Growth Potential - Twinkle Twinkle has shown strong market demand, with products selling out quickly at the Beijing Toy Expo, indicating its potential as a major revenue contributor from 2025 onwards [4]. - Crybaby's lifestyle product line, with an average price exceeding 250 RMB, demonstrates significant sales growth potential, despite supply constraints on plush toys [4]. Globalization and IP Diversification - Pop Mart is expanding its IP diversity through global operations, with existing IPs primarily from Greater China, while also tapping into artists from Thailand and the U.S. [5]. - The company aims to leverage local markets to incubate local artists and their creations as international market scales grow [5]. Core Investment Value - The intrinsic value of Pop Mart lies in its platform capabilities, which enable the success of its IPs, a factor that is often overlooked by the market [6]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation based on a projected 46 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, indicating a PEG ratio of approximately 1.4 for a high-growth consumer company with global expansion potential [6].
泡泡玛特 - 潮流玩具展:洞察其平台价值-Pop Mart-Pop Toy Show - A Glimpse Into Its Platform Value
2025-08-05 08:17
Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$42,943 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$251.00 (as of August 4, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$365.00, implying a 45% upside potential Key Insights Platform Value and IP Development - Pop Mart's platform value is considered underappreciated, with a focus on proprietary IPs primarily sourced from Greater China, with exceptions like Crybaby (Thailand) and Peach Riot (US) [2][3] - The company has potential to leverage artistic resources in the US, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia, aiming for a more culturally diverse IP portfolio in the next 3-5 years [2] Investment Thesis - The intrinsic value of Pop Mart extends beyond its IPs, emphasizing the company's platform capabilities as a key long-term investment thesis [3] - Historical performance shows significant growth in IP recognition, with Labubu growing from 6% of group sales to global renown, while new IPs like Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle are gaining traction [3] Recent Product Success - Observations from the Pop Toy Show indicated strong sales for Twinkle Twinkle products, which sold out rapidly, suggesting a promising contribution to sales in 2025 [7] - Crybaby's lifestyle products, including apparel and home goods, are also showing strong demand, indicating potential for increased sales [7] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from Rmb 13,038 million in 2024 to Rmb 53,216 million by 2027 [5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to increase from Rmb 2.43 in 2024 to Rmb 13.19 by 2027 [5] - **P/E Ratio**: Current P/E is 94.6, expected to decrease to 17.6 by 2027, indicating potential for re-rating as growth continues [5] Risks and Opportunities Upside Risks - Faster overseas growth and successful flagship store openings could enhance sales momentum [10] - Continued rollout of popular products and successful new business ventures, including toy bricks and theme parks, could drive growth [10] Downside Risks - Weak macroeconomic conditions and uncertainties related to new products and IPs pose risks [10] - Challenges in maintaining product appeal and successful overseas expansion could hinder growth [10] Conclusion - Pop Mart International Group is positioned for significant growth with a strong focus on IP development and cultural diversification. The company's platform capabilities and recent product successes suggest a robust investment opportunity, despite potential macroeconomic and operational risks.
泡泡玛特-不要浪费市场回调机会;首选股-Pop Mart-Don't Let a Market Retreat Go to Waste; Top Pick
2025-08-05 03:19
Summary of Pop Mart Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the IP (Intellectual Property) sector - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$42.089 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$365.00, representing a 48% upside from the current price of HK$246.00 [6][40] Key Points and Arguments 1. Earnings Growth and Valuation - Pop Mart has shown substantial earnings growth, with estimates of approximately 210% for 2025 and 45% for 2026 [2] - Current P/E ratios are 31x for 2025 and 22x for 2026, indicating compelling risk/reward dynamics [2] - The company is expected to see overseas operating profit (OP) rise to 55-60% of the group's total by 2026, positioning it as a global consumer play [2] 2. Product Launches and Demand - Despite perceptions of stalled momentum, Pop Mart continues to launch popular new products, with significant sales drivers from IPs like Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle [3][9] - The company has a strong track record of product launches, with many items selling out quickly, indicating robust demand [3][9] 3. Demand Metrics - 90-95% of sales are direct to consumers, providing clear visibility on demand and allowing for effective supply management [4] - Store queues and resale prices are not the sole indicators of popularity; the company aims to balance supply to meet consumer demand sustainably [4] 4. Market Potential - The global market for IP products is estimated to exceed US$80 billion, with Pop Mart's sales projected to grow to US$4.3 billion in 2025 and US$6 billion in 2026 [5] - The company is well-positioned to capture consumer demand across global markets, with low current penetration [5] 5. Strategic Initiatives - Pop Mart is expanding its business through collaborations with brands like Godiva and Uniqlo, and opening new stores in key international markets [16][19] - The company has opened its first store in Germany, which received significant media attention due to long queues [19] 6. Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 13,038 million in 2024 to RMB 42,994 million in 2026, with net income projected to increase from RMB 9,722 million to RMB 13,965 million in the same period [27] - The gross margin is expected to improve, reflecting better regional and product mixes [45] 7. Risk and Reward Analysis - The stock is considered to have a favorable risk/reward profile, with potential for further re-rating as sales momentum continues [40] - The company is compared to established brands like Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, indicating high growth potential [42] 8. Sales Growth Breakdown - Significant year-over-year sales growth is noted, particularly in overseas markets, with some regions experiencing growth rates exceeding 500% [29] 9. Revenue Mix and Product Breakdown - The revenue mix is diversified across various IPs, with Molly, Dimoo, and Skullpanda being key contributors [34][35] - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and IP versatility to drive future growth [42] Additional Important Insights - Pop Mart's IP-product flywheel and efficient direct-to-consumer model are seen as critical to its global expansion and earnings growth [42] - The company is actively pursuing new business initiatives, including theme parks and trading cards, which could contribute to long-term revenue streams [52][53] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Pop Mart conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, strategic initiatives, and market potential.
华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio|2025年8月4日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 23:28
Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a weak increase of 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, leading to a downward revision of the previous two months by 258,000 jobs [9] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.8% [9] - The market reacted negatively, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% and the S&P 500 recording its largest decline since May [1] - Berkshire Hathaway reported a 59% drop in Q2 net profit and warned that tariffs would impact performance, with a significant write-down of $3.8 billion on its investment in Kraft Heinz [8] Company News - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves are nearing historical highs, and the company has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, with no stock buybacks in Q2 [8] - The company’s top five holdings include American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [8] - OPEC+ has agreed to a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in September, restoring previously suspended cuts [9] Industry Insights - The U.S. trade representative stated that the tariff policy will largely remain unchanged, with significant tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 39% tariff on Switzerland [12] - The semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors face increased tariff risks, particularly if the U.S. imposes high tariffs on these products [23] - The consulting industry is undergoing significant changes due to AI, with firms like McKinsey adapting their business models to embrace AI technologies [26]
大摩:新IP势头强劲、瓶颈在供给而非需求,不要错失泡泡玛特回调良机
美股IPO· 2025-08-02 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong performance in its new IP product line, with popular products frequently sold out due to supply constraints rather than weak demand. The global IP market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to achieve substantial revenue growth by 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - The new IP product line, including Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle, is performing well, indicating a supply bottleneck rather than a lack of demand [6][8]. - Popular products such as Twinkle Twinkle's "Bee Your Honey" figurine (priced at 199 RMB) and various Crybaby products (priced between 79-199 RMB) are experiencing stock shortages [7]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Brand Collaborations - The company is actively expanding its global presence and engaging in cross-brand collaborations, such as partnerships with Godiva and Chopard [9]. - New stores have opened in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne, indicating strong consumer interest in the company's IP and products [9]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.046 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 138% year-on-year growth, and 42.994 billion RMB in 2026, with a 38% growth [10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 9.821 billion RMB in 2025, a 205% increase, and 13.965 billion RMB in 2026, a 42% increase [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP market is estimated to be worth approximately 800 billion USD, with the company's market share currently at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [14]. - The company aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [14]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The current stock price of 246 HKD offers over 48% upside potential to the target price of 365 HKD, based on a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for 2025 [16][19]. - The company’s strong IP product flywheel effect and efficient direct sales model are seen as key to successful global expansion [16].