机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/张雪晴/王杰睿 公司近况 我们邀请泡泡玛特参加了中金年度策略会，就投资人关心的海外市场、IP持续性、供货节奏等话题进行 了沟通。我们重申看好公司的商业模式护城河和长期成长空间，重点提示底部布局机会。 评论 2、二手价格下探意味着IP热度见顶？——IP商业化历程必经之路，预示供需格局均衡。Labubu3.0 发布 以来二手价格攀升，后随公司大规模放货回落，引发市场关于热度持续性担忧。我们认为，二手价格更 多受放货节奏影响，当前Labubu3.0 发货量级远超二手平台交易量，后者参考价值有限。考虑公司并非 刻意制造稀缺，当前热销产品在官方渠道可购得率大幅提升，有助于带来更优消费体验，且预示着公司 核心IP正拓展至更广泛的客群，为后续成长蓄水。 3、热门IP搜索讨论度下降，生命周期进入下半场？——强运营是延长IP生命周期的有效手段，长期动 能尚足。Labubu3.0 发售推高社媒讨论度，近期搜索热度回落引发关于IP生命周期的担忧。我们认为： IP生命周期由产品及内容驱动，仅以搜索词条热度等评价其生命周期过于片面。Labubu后续持续产品发 售、材料及品类创新、内容延展、外部联名等运营 ...

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Position**: Largest pop toy company in China, expanding globally with strong IP incubation and monetization capabilities [17][18] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue Growth**: Achieved revenue growth of **245-250% YoY**, driven by **185-190% YoY** growth in the PRC and **365-370% YoY** growth in overseas markets [1][2] - **1H25 Comparison**: Revenue growth in 1H25 was **204% YoY**, indicating a significant acceleration in the latter half of the year [2] - **Sales Channels**: - **PRC Offline Sales**: Grew by **130-135% YoY** - **PRC Online Sales**: Surged by **300-305% YoY** - **Overseas Sales**: - **America**: **1265-1270% YoY** - **Europe & Others**: **735-740% YoY** - **APAC**: **170-175% YoY** [2][9] Operational Insights - **IP Recognition**: The company is enhancing its IP influence through marketing events and collaborations, including a **10th Anniversary Global Tour** and art installations [3] - **Product Launches**: New product releases, particularly under the **TWINKLE TWINKLE** IP, are driving rapid sell-through rates [3] Financial Projections - **Target Price**: Increased to **HK$415**, reflecting a **65.7% expected return** from the current price of **HK$250.40** [4][8] - **Earnings Forecast Adjustments**: FY25-27E earnings forecast adjusted upwards by **16.8-17.3%** due to a more promising sales outlook [1][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - FY25E P/E: **22.6x** - FY26E P/E: **16.7x** [1][8] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Maintain a **Buy** rating, emphasizing the importance of sell-through trends over secondary market performance [1][18] - **Market Cap**: Approximately **HK$336,273 million** (US$43,289 million) [4] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: Rising competition in China's pop toy market with new entrants [21] - **Global Expansion Risks**: Potential disappointments in overseas market performance [21] - **IP Commercialization**: Risks associated with the inability to effectively commercialize IPs and renew licenses [21][20] Conclusion Pop Mart is positioned for continued growth driven by strong revenue performance, effective IP management, and a robust marketing strategy. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive pressures and execution risks in its global expansion efforts.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the fundamentals of Pop Mart have not changed but have instead strengthened, and the market's panic presents an excellent allocation opportunity [1] Group 1: Rating and Price Target Adjustment - On October 15, Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD based on two key factors [2] - The first factor is the continued strength of popular IPs, with Labubu's production capacity increased tenfold compared to Q1, yet Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu remain sold out in all regions [2][5] - The new IP "Star People" is rapidly emerging, expected to contribute 8% of sales in 2027 [2][10] Group 2: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The second factor is the significant improvement in valuation, with the stock price down 24% from its August peak while the Hang Seng Index rose 7%, leading to a more attractive risk-reward ratio with a projected 20x P/E for 2026 [3][11] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Pop Mart's success is not reliant on a single IP, showcasing its global layout and strong pricing power to withstand external risks [3] Group 3: Core Engine and Demand Sustainability - Labubu remains the core engine of growth for Pop Mart, with its astonishing popularity supporting the company's expansion [4] - Despite a tenfold increase in Labubu's production capacity, the products remain sold out, dispelling market concerns about sustainable demand [5] Group 4: New IP Development - The new IP "Star People" is proving the company's ability to diversify its IP matrix, with products from the Halloween series selling out within minutes on major online platforms [8] - The secondary market shows a premium of 130% for "Star People," indicating a genuine fan base rather than just a substitute for Labubu [9][10] Group 5: Financial Projections and Growth - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart by 5-7% for 2025-2027, with expected sales and adjusted profits for 2025 growing by 165% and 276% year-on-year, respectively [14][15] - The company is projected to continue strong growth in 2026, with sales and profits expected to grow by 28% and 29% year-on-year [15] Group 6: Global Supply Chain and Trade Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that concerns over global trade friction and tariff risks will have a limited financial impact on Pop Mart [17] - The company has prepared inventory for the 2025 Q4 shopping season to mitigate recent tariff fluctuations and has the ability to raise prices to offset cost increases [18] - Morgan Stanley estimates that a price increase of about 15% would fully offset the impact of tariffs on gross margins in the Americas [19] Group 7: Global Expansion Strategy - To support long-term global expansion, Pop Mart is planning six major manufacturing centers (four in China and two overseas) [20] - Sales contribution from the Americas is expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027, with overseas business contributing nearly 60% to group earnings by 2027 [21] - The increasing uncertainty of tariffs may accelerate the company's global supply chain layout, fundamentally reducing geopolitical risks [22]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the toy and collectibles sector - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$45.92 billion as of September 26, 2025 Key Observations from US Store Visits 1. **Customer Engagement**: Many new customers were observed in stores, indicating effective introduction of Pop Mart's "blind boxes" and diverse product offerings beyond just Labubu plush toys, suggesting strong potential for brand expansion in the US market [1][2] 2. **Store Locations**: The current 50 US stores are primarily located in residential areas, with limited presence in high-traffic commercial zones. This rollout strategy is seen as crucial for establishing a loyal customer base [2] 3. **Operational Challenges**: Some stores are smaller than optimal (≤100 sqm) despite good foot traffic. There is a reliance on app sales for bestsellers, and some stores are using social media for restocking announcements, indicating room for operational optimization [2][3] Customer Demographics - **Consumer Cohorts**: A notable presence of children accompanied by adults was observed, likely due to higher disposable income in the US. Adult customers aged 20-40 made up the majority, with Asian customers constituting 30-40% in some locations [3] Store Performance - **Traffic and Sales**: All visited stores reported strong traffic, with five outperforming adjacent stores, second only to Apple stores during the iPhone 17 launch. The Jersey Gardens store underperformed due to nearby discount offerings and limited product availability during its soft opening [4] Competitive Landscape - **Unique Selling Proposition**: No direct competition was noted in the toy/hobby sector offering a similar unboxing experience or product variety. Popular IPs beyond Labubu include Crybaby, Skullpanda, and various licensed anime/Disney products [5] Merchandise Strategy - **Product Rotation**: Each store carries a subset of Pop Mart's total portfolio, allowing for frequent rotation of merchandise to maintain customer interest and freshness [6] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Stock Rating**: Overweight with a price target of HK$382.00, representing a 44% upside from the current price of HK$266.00 [7] - **Earnings Projections**: Expected EPS growth from Rmb 2.43 in FY 2024 to Rmb 13.68 by FY 2027, with revenue projections increasing from Rmb 13.038 billion to Rmb 54.757 billion over the same period [7] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Faster overseas growth, successful product launches, and retention of sales momentum in China [15] - **Downside Risks**: Weak macroeconomic conditions, uncertainties in new product development, and challenges in overseas expansion [17] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for growth in the US market, with strong customer engagement and a unique product offering. However, operational optimizations and strategic store placements will be critical for building a sustainable customer base. The financial outlook remains positive, with significant growth potential in earnings and revenue.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of Pop Mart from its initial public offering in 2020 to its current status as a global player in the collectible toy market, highlighting its significant growth and international expansion efforts [5][6][11]. Group 1: Company Growth and Market Position - Pop Mart's market capitalization has soared to over 300 billion, showcasing its remarkable growth trajectory since its IPO [5]. - The company has experienced a U-shaped stock price movement, reflecting volatility in the secondary market, yet it has managed to maintain a strong market presence [5]. - In the latest financial report, overseas market revenue contributed nearly half of the total revenue, indicating a shift in focus from domestic to international markets [6][11]. Group 2: Globalization Strategy - Pop Mart's globalization was a core ambition from its inception, with the belief that retail companies must pursue global expansion to achieve significant growth [11]. - The company has successfully integrated local elements into its overseas operations, with 20-30% of its overseas store displays featuring local designs [19]. - Pop Mart has established partnerships with local artists and manufacturers in various countries, enhancing its global appeal and operational efficiency [20][19]. Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The company positions itself as a trend toy company, with its core being intellectual property (IP) development, which serves as the foundation for its product offerings [26]. - Pop Mart's products, such as Labubu and Molly, have maintained their relevance and appeal over time, contributing to the brand's longevity and market presence [21]. - The company has adopted a model similar to that of a record label, directly signing artists to create unique products that resonate with diverse audiences [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Engagement - Pop Mart has successfully attracted a broad consumer base, including local populations in international markets, rather than solely targeting overseas Chinese communities [16]. - The company has seen a fourfold increase in overseas sales in the first half of the year, with single-store efficiency significantly outperforming domestic figures [16]. - The brand's ability to connect with consumers across different cultures and languages highlights its unique position in the global market [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of Pop Mart from its initial public offering to its current status as a global player in the collectible toy market, highlighting its significant growth and international expansion efforts. Group 1: Company Growth and Market Position - Pop Mart's market capitalization has surpassed 300 billion, showcasing its remarkable growth since its Hong Kong listing five years ago [6][7]. - The company has successfully established a presence in overseas markets, with nearly half of its revenue coming from international sales in the latest interim report [8][10]. - The overseas business has maintained triple-digit growth since 2018, with sales in the first half of this year increasing more than fourfold compared to the previous year [25]. Group 2: Globalization Strategy - Pop Mart's globalization is not merely a goal but a foundational aspect of its business model, aiming to integrate into the global market from the outset [17][18]. - The company has begun collaborating with leading factories in Vietnam to enhance production capacity and has implemented a significant organizational restructuring to better manage its international operations [33][34]. - Local elements are incorporated into overseas store displays, and Pop Mart supports local artists, demonstrating a commitment to localization in its global strategy [35]. Group 3: Cultural and Market Impact - Pop Mart's success lies in its ability to appeal to a diverse audience, transcending cultural and linguistic barriers, and attracting not only overseas Chinese but also local consumers [28][29]. - The company’s products serve as a universal language of joy, allowing it to connect with various demographics globally [25][44]. - The article emphasizes that effective globalization involves not just selling products abroad but also integrating into the global economic landscape [31][39].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the brand popularity of Pop Mart (09992) is expected to rebound due to the launch of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, with search interest for "Mini Labubu" rising since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating the release of a new plush toy series in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The global social media engagement for Pop Mart's official accounts rose by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 400 for Pop Mart [1] Group 2 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are identified as hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series (mini version) and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series (40 cm version) selling out within one minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The pricing for Mini Labubu is set at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with secondary market prices showing a 45% increase as of September 5, while the large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 and HKD 583, with a 56% increase in secondary market prices [2] Group 3 - Twinkle Twinkle is recognized as an emerging IP, with Pop Mart planning to launch it in August 2024, projecting sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 and HKD 95, is set to launch in mid-August 2025 and is expected to sell out quickly, with secondary market prices showing a premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a strong growth trajectory driven by high-quality IP and robust domestic and international sales [2][3] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of 30,480 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 133.78% [1][9] - The core IP matrix has shown explosive growth, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, particularly "The Monsters" which achieved 48.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 668% [9][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic revenue reached 82.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 135%, with both offline and online channels achieving triple-digit growth [3] - Offline retail store revenue was 44.06 billion RMB, up 120% year-on-year, driven by store optimization and upgrades [3] - Online sales also surged, with revenue from box machines reaching 11.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 182% [3] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas stores to 128, with a net increase of 28 stores since the beginning of the year, leading to a 440% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue to 55.93 billion RMB [4][10] - The Americas saw particularly strong growth, with revenue of 22.65 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1142% [4] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing the estimates to 10,688 million RMB for 2025, 15,146 million RMB for 2026, and 18,888 million RMB for 2027 [10][11] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are approximately 37 for 2025, 26 for 2026, and 21 for 2027 [10][11] Product and IP Development - The plush product category has become the largest revenue contributor, with sales of 61.39 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1276% [9][10] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP portfolio, with new IPs like "Crybaby" and "Star People" gaining significant traction [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Pop Mart with a 12-month price target of HK$260, indicating a downside potential of 7.4% from the current price of HK$280.80 [17][18]. Core Insights - Pop Mart reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 204% and a net profit increase of 396% for the first half of 2025, surpassing Goldman Sachs estimates by 1% and 10% respectively [1][4]. - The strong performance was driven by robust sales growth in both domestic (135% YoY) and overseas markets (440% YoY), with the overseas sales mix increasing to 40.3% from 22.7% in the previous year [2][10]. - The company's core operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 17 percentage points year-on-year to 42%, attributed to a higher gross profit margin (GPM) and strong operational leverage [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total sales reached Rmb 13,876 million in 1H25, slightly above Goldman Sachs estimates [4][16]. - Net income attributable to equity holders was Rmb 4,574 million, exceeding estimates by 10% [14][16]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 70.3%, above the expected 69.4% [13][16]. Sales Breakdown - Sales in the PRC increased by 135% YoY to Rmb 8,283 million, while overseas sales surged by 440% YoY to Rmb 5,593 million [10][11]. - Proprietary products sales grew by 214% YoY, with the Monsters IP sales increasing by 668% YoY to Rmb 4.8 billion, representing 35% of total sales [11][12]. Market Expansion - The number of retail stores in the PRC increased to 443, while overseas stores reached 128, with significant growth in the Americas [13][10]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with guidance for over 100 new stores for the full year [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of management's guidance update and strategies for IP portfolio expansion during the upcoming earnings meeting [2][3]. - Continued strong growth visibility into the second half of 2025 is expected, supported by the popularity of IPs and customer base expansion [2][3].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8%, exceeding previous forecasts of 200% revenue growth and 350% net profit growth [1] - The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 70.3%, an increase of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, while the adjusted net profit margin rose to 33.9%, up 11.6% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Monsters series generated 4.81 billion yuan in revenue, contributing over 30% of total revenue, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 668% [1] - Plush products surpassed figurines for the first time, achieving revenue of 6.14 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 1276.2% [1] - The Americas region saw significant growth, with revenue of 2.265 billion yuan, up 1142.3%, while Europe and other regions reported revenue of 478 million yuan, a growth of 729.2% [1] IP Performance - Pop Mart's strong IP portfolio remains a competitive advantage, with five major IPs (The Monsters, Molly, Dimoo, Skullpanda, and Crybaby) each generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue during the first half of 2025 [3] - The classic IP Molly continued its stable growth, achieving revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.5% [3] - New IPs Crybaby and Skullpanda showed strong growth, with revenues of 1.218 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 248.7% and 112.4% year-on-year [3]