Core Viewpoint - As a globally scarce trendy IP platform, the company has clear performance growth points in the medium term, and despite short-term fluctuations in third-party data, the outlook remains positive for the company [1] Group 1: IP Growth - The company is expected to maintain a growth trend in its IP segment, with a stable performance from the leading IP Labubu and significant contributions from emerging IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby [2][3] - Labubu, despite a high base, has the potential for continued revenue growth in 2026 due to its stable global influence, expanded production capacity, and improved overseas supply chain and logistics [2][3] - The second-tier IPs, such as Xingxingren, are showing significant growth, with the latest series performing well and expected to drive overall growth [3][4] Group 2: Production Capacity - In 2025, the company faced production capacity limitations but is projected to meet market demand by December with a monthly capacity nearing 50 million units [3] - The company is expected to start 2026 with a high production capacity, allowing for the full release of potential growth [3] Group 3: Store Expansion - The company is in a stable expansion phase for overseas stores, with significant room for growth, particularly in the U.S. market where the number of stores is still low compared to established brands [5] - As of January 28, the total number of overseas stores reached 187, with ongoing expansion in various regions, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [5] Group 4: Product Innovation - Continuous product innovation is being validated, with new interactive features being introduced in products, enhancing user engagement [4][6] - The company plans to launch new product categories, such as mini BJD, which are expected to broaden the usage scenarios and enhance customer loyalty [6][7] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 39.87 billion, 52.00 billion, and 61.59 billion for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 205.8%, 30.4%, and 18.4% respectively [8] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 13.48 billion, 17.68 billion, and 21.72 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates [8]

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Cap**: HK$361,948 million (US$46,316 million) [6] Key Points 1. IP-Centric Diversification Strategy - Pop Mart's strategy focuses on diversifying its intellectual property (IP) portfolio to mitigate cyclical risks and stimulate new demand. The recent collaboration, Skullpanda x My Little Pony, has shown significant interest, particularly on social media platforms like Instagram [1][3]. 2. Growth in APP Engagement - There has been a notable increase in mobile app downloads and active users, particularly in China and the US, attributed to new product releases. This trend is expected to continue during the upcoming Chinese New Year Golden Week [2][10]. 3. Emerging IPs Beyond LABUBU - Other IPs such as SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are becoming significant growth drivers, with over 400 million units sold across all IPs in 2025. The interest in these non-LABUBU IPs in international markets may be underestimated [3][4]. 4. Overseas Market Potential - The sustainability of Pop Mart's growth is debated, particularly regarding the US market. The company is focusing on localized operations and collaborations to enhance its global presence. The total addressable market (TAM) for overseas markets is substantial, and improvements in organizational structure and supply chain are expected to drive expansion [4][22]. 5. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit of RMB 1,082 million, EPS of RMB 0.807 - 2024: Net Profit of RMB 3,125 million, EPS of RMB 2.346 - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 13,549 million, EPS of RMB 10.158 - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 18,357 million, EPS of RMB 13.763 - 2027E: Net Profit of RMB 23,163 million, EPS of RMB 17.366 [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Pop Mart is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$415, representing a potential upside of 53.8%. The expected total return is 55.5%, with a dividend yield of 1.7% [6][24]. 7. Risks - Key risks include rising competition in the pop toy market, potential disappointments in global expansion, challenges in IP commercialization, and regulatory changes. Despite a high-risk rating, qualitative factors such as execution capability support the investment thesis [25][26]. 8. Market Position - Pop Mart is recognized as the largest pop toy company in China, with a growing global footprint. The company aims to capture the emerging trend of "spiritual consumption" among younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, through its diverse IP characters and marketing strategies [22][23]. 9. Valuation Metrics - The company trades at a premium compared to global peers due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion. The valuation is supported by a strong growth profile and execution capabilities [24]. 10. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through innovative product offerings and effective IP management, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [1][4][23].

今日（2月9日），港股市场迎来反弹。 截至收盘，恒生指数报27027.16点，上涨467.21点，涨幅1.76%。 恒生科技指数收盘报5417.60点，上涨71.40点，涨幅1.34%。 市场热点方面，泡泡玛特（HK09992）盘中一度涨超8%，收盘涨超5%，创下三个月来新高。 消息面，紫金矿业今日早间发布公告，公司董事会审议通过《公司三年（2026—2028年）主要矿产品产 量规划和2035年远景目标纲要》。根据规划，2026年，公司矿产金产量105吨、矿产铜产量120万吨、矿 产银产量520吨、矿产锌/铅产量40万吨、当量碳酸锂产量12万吨、矿产钼产量1.5万吨。到2028年，公 司的资源储量、主要矿产品产量、销售收入、资产规模、利润等综合指标排名进一步提升，铜、金矿产 品产量进入全球前三位。 电力设备股全天强势，东方电气（HK01072）涨超14%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，百度涨超3%，腾讯涨超2%，网易、阿里巴巴涨超1%，快手跌超 2%。新股方面，澜起科技（HK06809）首日涨超63%。 资金方面，南向资金上周大举抄底后，今日逢高小规模净卖出。截至收盘，南向资金净卖出港股18.87 亿港 ...

Group 1: Bubble Mart (泡泡玛特) - Citic Jiantou maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Bubble Mart, highlighting the company's "one strong, multiple strong" IP structure, with Labubu's influence solidified and new IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby driving high growth [1] Group 2: MGM China (美高梅中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China, reporting a 21.4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 29.5% to HKD 2.75 billion, driven by strong performance from MGM Cotai and precise targeting of high-end customers [2] - CICC also maintains an "Outperform" rating for MGM China, noting adjusted EBITDA of HKD 2.753 billion for Q4 2025, up 29% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, despite a brand fee increase expected to impact net profit by about 14% [4] - Citic Securities maintains an "Accumulate" rating for MGM China, indicating that the company's performance exceeded expectations, with net income and adjusted EBITDA recovering to pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong performances from MGM Macau and MGM Cotai [7] Group 3: Yum China (百胜中国) - Haitong International maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, reporting a 9% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2025 and a 24% increase in adjusted net profit, with same-store sales growing for three consecutive quarters and restaurant profit margins improving by 0.7 percentage points to 13.0% [3] Group 4: Innovent Biologics (信达生物) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Innovent Biologics, projecting product revenue of RMB 11.9 billion for 2025, a 45% year-on-year increase, with seven new products included in the 2026 medical insurance catalog [5] Group 5: Swire Properties (太古地产) - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Swire Properties, noting significant recovery in luxury retail operations in mainland China, with retail sales in Shanghai and Beijing increasing by 49.6% and 11.2% respectively [6] Group 6: Meituan (美团) - Citic Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, announcing a plan to acquire Dingdong Maicai for USD 717 million, which is expected to strengthen its East China front warehouse network and bring in HKD 170 million in adjusted net profit post-integration [8] Group 7: Kuaishou (快手) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, highlighting the launch of its AI video model 3.0, which supports 15-second generation and intelligent scene segmentation, with commercial growth expected to reach USD 240 million in ARR by 2025 [10] Group 8: Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Citic Jiantou maintains a "Buy" rating for Huiju Technology, emphasizing its deep ties with leading CSPs like Google and the benefits from the upgrade of optical modules, projecting a revenue increase of 82.1% year-on-year for H1 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - Pop Mart is rated as a Top Buy in China's consumer sector, with a target price of HK$415.00, representing an expected return of 92.0% from the current price of HK$216.20 [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pop Mart's user base is growing globally, with 76% of survey participants making their first purchase within one year, and 45% within three months [2][12]. - A significant 87% of respondents expressed a likelihood to purchase Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new product series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [3][30]. - Brand perception is strong, with 54% of respondents very satisfied and 39% somewhat satisfied, indicating a positive emotional connection with the brand [4][46]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior - 76% of respondents had their first Pop Mart purchase within one year, with 45% within three months [2][12]. - 34% shop for Pop Mart products every month, and 29% every three months, indicating high purchase frequency [12][14]. - 90% of respondents own at least two Pop Mart items, with the US having the highest per capita ownership [18][25]. Purchase Drivers - 87% of respondents are likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, with new series and limited editions being key drivers [3][30]. - 93% plan to buy Pop Mart products in the future, with 48% maintaining current purchase frequency and 26% planning to buy more often [36][39]. - Wider product range, better quality, and lower prices are cited as factors that could increase purchase frequency [40]. Brand Perception - 54% of respondents are very satisfied with Pop Mart, with the highest satisfaction in the US at 70% [46][48]. - Gift-giving and collection/hobby are the top reasons for purchasing, with emotional satisfaction also playing a significant role [48][50]. - Character design, rarity/exclusivity, and emotional connection are highly valued attributes of Pop Mart products [51]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2026 is Rmb 18,357 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 13.763, reflecting a growth of 35.5% [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin of around 72% in 2026 [10]. Market Dynamics - The survey indicates that Pop Mart's user base continues to grow despite concerns about secondary market prices, with only 9% of respondents purchasing from secondhand platforms [2][27]. - The brand's strong presence in physical stores, especially in China, contrasts with higher online purchase ratios in the US and UK [27][29].

有87%的受访者表示未来三个月"有可能"或"非常可能"购买泡泡玛特产品; 新系列产品、限量版及季节 性发售是推动下次购买的关键因素。另外，送礼及收藏和兴趣是受访者购买泡泡玛特的主要原因，其次 为情感满足及追随潮流。其角色设计、情感连结及稀有和独特性最受受访者重视。 调查显示，前五大受欢迎IP产品分别为LABUBU(47%)、Twinkle Twinkle(27%)、Skullpanda(25%)、 Crybaby(23%)及Molly(22%)。该行认为海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴趣可能被低估，尤其是Twinkle Twinkle在美国的拥有率超出该行预期。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，预期泡泡玛特(09992)在IP多元化、产品创新及多领域变现方面的 突破，将支持2026年持续增长。现予目标价415港元及"买入"评级，续列作中国消费板块首选。 该行在中国、日本、美国、英国及澳洲，对约1,500名泡泡玛特的消费者进行问卷调查。结果显示，泡 泡玛特的客户基础持续扩大，76%的受访者在过去一年内首次购买泡泡玛特产品，其中45%更是近三个 月或更短时间内的新客户。只有9%的受访者表示会从二手平台购买。 ...

花旗发布研报称，预期泡泡玛特(09992)在IP多元化、产品创新及多领域变现方面的突破，将支持2026 年持续增长。现予目标价415港元及"买入"评级，续列作中国消费板块首选。 该行在中国、日本、美国、英国及澳洲，对约1,500名泡泡玛特的消费者进行问卷调查。结果显示，泡 泡玛特的客户基础持续扩大，76%的受访者在过去一年内首次购买泡泡玛特产品，其中45%更是近三个 月或更短时间内的新客户。只有9%的受访者表示会从二手平台购买。 有87%的受访者表示未来三个月"有可能"或"非常可能"购买泡泡玛特产品;新系列产品、限量版及季节性 发售是推动下次购买的关键因素。另外，送礼及收藏和兴趣是受访者购买泡泡玛特的主要原因，其次为 情感满足及追随潮流。其角色设计、情感连结及稀有和独特性最受受访者重视。 调查显示，前五大受欢迎IP产品分别为LABUBU(47%)、Twinkle Twinkle(27%)、Skullpanda(25%)、 Crybaby(23%)及Molly(22%)。该行认为海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴趣可能被低估，尤其是Twinkle Twinkle在美国的拥有率超出该行预期。 ...

调查显示，前五大受欢迎IP产品分别为LABUBU(47%)、Twinkle Twinkle(27%)、Skullpanda(25%)、 Crybaby(23%)及Molly(22%)。该行认为海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴趣可能被低估，尤其是Twinkle Twinkle在美国的拥有率超出该行预期。该行预期泡泡玛特在IP多元化、产品创新及多领域变现方面的 突破，将支持2026年持续增长，现予目标价415港元及"买入"评级，续列作中国消费板块首选。 花旗在中国、日本、美国、英国及澳洲对约1500名泡泡玛特的消费者进行问卷调查。结果显示，泡泡玛 特的客户基础持续扩大，76%的受访者在过去一年内首次购买泡泡玛特产品，其中45%更是近三个月或 更短时间内的新客户。有87%的受访者表示未来三个月有可能或非常可能购买泡泡玛特产品；新系列产 品、限量版及季节性发售是推动下次购买的关键因素。另外，送礼及收藏和兴趣是受访者购买泡泡玛特 的主要原因，其次为情感满足及追随潮流。其角色设计、情感连结及稀有和独特性最受受访者重视。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks in the consumer sector experienced a significant rise, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) increasing by 1.59% and a total trading volume exceeding 62 million HKD, highlighting strong investor interest [1] - Pop Mart repurchased 500,000 shares for 96.49 million HKD, marking its second buyback within the week, with a total repurchase amount nearing 350 million HKD [1] - The A-share market showed a slight correction, with the Consumer ETF (159928) declining by 0.39% and a trading volume surpassing 500 million HKD, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [2] Group 2 - Bohai Securities noted that high-level meetings are focusing on accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, with policies being introduced to support new business models and scenarios, particularly in sports events and IP-related consumption [3] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that the optimization of holiday arrangements in 2026 is expected to significantly boost service consumption, with an increase in holiday days likely to enhance demand in tourism and dining sectors [4] - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of its weight, including major players in the liquor and agriculture sectors [5] Group 3 - The top holdings in the Consumer ETF include leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which together represent a significant portion of the ETF's weight, indicating a strong focus on essential consumer goods [6] - The Consumer 50 ETF (159268) is positioned as an efficient investment choice for the Hong Kong consumer sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas, appealing to investors targeting the new consumption trends among Generation Z [6]

研究员：樊俊豪/石狄/刘思奇 机构：华泰证券 风险提示：宏观消费需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧，新业务发展不及预期。 近期泡泡玛特市场预期受短期高频追踪数据影响明显，并导致对IP 热度、业绩成长持续性的担忧有所 升温。我们追踪的数据显示，公司Q4 国内、海外业绩环比趋势呈现高韧性，在度过Labubu 3.0 销售高 峰后，IP 矩阵的力量对销售增长形成坚实支撑。我们梳理了市场观点的三个潜在预期差：高频数据的 综合判断、新锐IP 成长性、内容等IP 生态布局的潜力。公司1 月19 日以2.51 亿港元回购140 万股股 份，每股回购价177.7-181.2 港元，彰显对成长前景的信心。我们认为公司业绩增长的可持续性以及中 长期空间受低估，在当前市场分歧阶段估值具备吸引力，维持"买入"评级，继续重点推荐。 维度一：Q4 海外市场表现或好于市场悲观预期 Q4 市场追踪部分三方数据及二手价格，导致对海外尤其北美表现担忧。我们预计Q4 海外环比表现好于 市场悲观预期。1）北美：我们跟踪Tik Tok Q4销售额环降约10%。但Q3 因门店缺货，线上占比或高达 60-70%，Q4 门店货品充足，线下收入预计明显好于Q3，全渠 ...