证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.