（来源：吴说） 作者：Hazel 支无不言 编辑：Pat Larry Ma SNZ Holding 合伙人，曾在 Visa 任职，拥有超过 25 年的全球化从业经验，横跨电商、数字营销、金融 服务与区块链创新领域。 【主播】 原文链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KWoywbocq3BqaI6nPieYsQ 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我 们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立 场。 一、本期介绍 你可能对 Visa 庞大的数字并无概念：它每年处理超过 15 万亿美元的交易量，几乎相当于中国全年的 GDP；它连接着全球 1.3 亿家商户，背后是 43 亿张卡片的跳动。 但在这台精密机器的齿轮间，藏着一个传统金融难以言说的隐疾：为了让跨境支付看起来丝滑，全球银 行体系被迫在水管里锁死了数以万亿计的预存资金。这些钱静静地躺在银行账户里动弹不得，只为了应 对清算的时间差。当加密社区还在争论如何用区块链"杀死" Visa 时，这家巨头已经悄悄完成了对自身 底层大动脉的链上手术。上个 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2026年米兰—科尔蒂纳冬奥会开幕式在美国东部时间周五下午2:00举行(北京时间2 月7日凌晨3点)，对于股票市场投资者们而言，冬季奥运会将成为全球广播机构、流媒体平台、数字广 告厂商、运动服饰、饮料品牌以及部分意大利公司的高曝光事件。 米兰—科尔蒂纳冬奥会将于2026年2月6日至22日举行，NBC拥有美国市场独家转播权。美国有线电 视、电信与娱乐行业领导者康卡斯特(CMCSA.US)旗下的NBC环球平台将通过NBC、Peacock、USA以 及CNBC分发赛事报道，同时把奥运会与超级碗LX的转播捆绑，使其在单个周末拥有史上规模最大的 单一事件驱动型广告平台之一。 米兰—科尔蒂纳还拥有阵容深厚的意大利企业赞助商名单，包括Enel、Eni、意大利联合圣保罗银行 (Intesa Sanpaolo)、意大利邮政(Poste Italiane)、莱昂纳多(Leonardo)、斯泰兰蒂斯(Stellantis)、TIM、EA7 Emporio Armani、倍耐力(Pirelli)、ITA Airways、Technogym以及Esselunga。有华尔街分析师预计，当地 酒店与旅游接待行业将获得温 ...

Group 1 - Visa Inc. is facing rising regulatory risks, particularly concerning a proposed 10% cap on U.S. credit card interest rates, which could limit customer access to credit for up to 80% of Americans [2] - The growth outlook for Visa Inc. is heavily reliant on the expansion of digital payments, with potential new opportunities arising from Apple's plans to launch its payments service in India starting in 2026 [3] - Visa Inc. has recently enabled Apple Pay support for Chinese-issued Visa Cards, aiming to enhance acceptance across various transaction types and boost cross-border and mobile payment activities [4] Group 2 - The overall sentiment towards Visa Inc. as an investment is cautious, with some analysts suggesting that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk compared to Visa [5]

Core Viewpoint - Visa stock is currently considered an attractive investment due to its high margins, strong cash generation capabilities, and a significant discount in its valuation compared to the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Visa's stock has declined by 6.5% this year, but it is 43% cheaper based on its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio compared to a year ago [3]. - In Q4 2025, Visa reported a 17% increase in data processing revenue and a 12% rise in higher-margin cross-border volume, driven by strong consumer spending [3]. - Processed transactions grew by 10%, indicating improved network utility [3]. - Revenue from value-added services increased by 25% due to new partnerships and technological investments [4]. - The company anticipates low double-digit net revenue growth for FY2026, supported by global events like the Olympics [4]. Competitive Position - Visa dominates the transition from cash to digital payments, operating in over 200 countries and benefiting from strong network effects [5]. - The asset-light business model allows Visa to maintain exceptional margins and strong free cash flow, facilitating consistent buybacks and dividends [5]. - Growth drivers such as cross-border travel, contactless payments, and B2B transactions remain robust [5]. Profitability Metrics - Visa's recent operating cash flow margin is approximately 57.6%, with an operating margin of 66.4% for the last twelve months [11]. - Long-term profitability metrics show an operating cash flow margin of roughly 58.9% and an operating margin of 66.8% over the last three years [11]. - Revenue growth for Visa was 11.3% for the last twelve months and 10.9% over the last three years [11]. Valuation - Visa's stock is currently available at a P/S multiple of 10.6, representing a 43% discount compared to one year ago [11].

Core Insights - The demand for Visa's stablecoin settlement is being driven by providers of stablecoin-linked payment cards, indicating a growing market opportunity for Visa in this sector [2][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Settlement Volumes - Visa's stablecoin settlement volumes have reached an annualized run rate of $4.5 billion, which, while a small fraction of the $14.2 trillion in annual payments processed last year, is experiencing significant month-over-month growth [2]. - The increase in stablecoin settlement volumes is primarily attributed to the demand from stablecoin-linked card providers [2]. Group 2: Merchant Acceptance and Services - Merchants generally do not accept stablecoin payments, which increases the necessity for Visa's products and services to facilitate customer spending of stablecoins [3]. - Visa's global network, VisaNet, supports various transaction types, including credit, debit, and ATM transactions, which are essential for stablecoin transactions [3]. Group 3: Support for Stablecoins and Blockchain - Visa is actively expanding its support for more stablecoins and blockchains on its settlement platform, with recent additions including two U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins and the euro-backed EURC [4]. - The company aims to build a multicoin and multichain foundation to meet the needs of its global partners, emphasizing the transformative potential of trusted, scalable, and interoperable stablecoins [5]. Group 4: Industry Perspective - Analysts view stablecoins as a potential opportunity for Visa rather than a threat, as they still require additional services such as fraud prevention and compliance checks, which Visa can provide [5]. - Visa's CEO highlighted the company's role as a hyperscaler, enabling various entities to build on the Visa-as-a-service stack for money movement and payments [6].

Financial Stocks Overview - Five financial stocks to watch include JPMorgan Chase & Co., American Noble Gas, Robinhood Markets, Visa, and Coinbase Global, as identified by MarketBeat's stock screener tool [2] - Financial stocks represent companies in the financial sector, including banks, insurance companies, and asset managers, providing exposure to interest-rate sensitivity, credit and liquidity risks, and economic cycles [2] JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) - JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a financial holding company that provides financial and investment banking services, focusing on investment banking, consumer and small business financial services, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, and asset management [3] American Noble Gas (INFY) - Infosys Ltd. is a digital services and consulting company offering end-to-end business solutions across various segments, including Financial Services, Retail, and Manufacturing [4] Robinhood Markets (HOOD) - Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform in the U.S., allowing users to invest in stocks, ETFs, options, and cryptocurrencies, and offers features like fractional trading and margin investing [4] Visa Inc. (V) - Visa Inc. operates as a payment technology company, managing VisaNet for transaction processing and offering a range of services including credit and debit card products, fraud mitigation, and cross-border payment solutions [5] Coinbase Global (COIN) - Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the crypto economy, offering a primary financial account for consumers and a marketplace for institutions to transact in crypto assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share index experienced a collective rise on December 19, driven by news related to stablecoins, with the fintech and software development sectors showing strong performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext software ETF Huaxia (159256) saw its gains expand to nearly 1%, with constituent stocks such as Sifang Jingchuang and Caixun shares rising over 5% [1] - Leading stocks in the sector included Aerospace Zhizhuang, Chuangye Huikang, and Zhongke Chuangda, which led the gains [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Visa launched a stablecoin settlement service based on USDC in the U.S., allowing card-issuing and acquiring banks to settle VisaNet transactions via the Solana blockchain, enhancing liquidity management efficiency with near real-time fund clearing [1] - The software industry plays a crucial role in the AI industry chain, primarily in the midstream technology layer and downstream application layer, providing essential technical support and facilitating the implementation of AI applications [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Longjiang Securities highlighted that in the context of intensified Sino-U.S. technological competition, achieving complete autonomy in key areas is essential for China's technological development, particularly in the context of supply chain security [1] - As critical policy assessment years like 2025 approach, domestic operating systems and foundational software within the Xinchuang industry chain are areas of significant focus [1]

Company Overview - Visa Inc. has a market cap of $599.9 billion and operates as a global payments technology company facilitating digital transactions in over 200 countries through its VisaNet network [1] - The company provides a wide range of products and services, including credit, debit, prepaid solutions, digital payment innovations, risk management, and data analytics [1] Market Position - Visa is classified as a "mega-cap" stock, serving financial institutions, merchants, governments, and consumers, and enhances its brand through partnerships with organizations like the Olympic Games, FIFA, and the NFL [2] - The stock has experienced a 12.3% decline from its 52-week high of $375.51 and a 5.9% decrease over the past three months, underperforming the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) which dropped 3.1% in the same period [3] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Visa stock is up 4.2%, lagging behind XLF's 7.4% gain, but has risen 6.3% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming XLF's 2.3% return [4] - The stock has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late October [4] Financial Results - In Q4 2025, Visa reported adjusted EPS of $2.98 and revenue of $10.72 billion, but shares fell 1.6% the following day due to a 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating expenses to $3.6 billion [5] - Free cash flow decreased by 8% to $5.8 billion, and operating cash flow declined by 6.4%, leading to cautious fiscal 2026 guidance with expectations of only low double-digit EPS growth [5] Competitive Landscape - Compared to Mastercard, which has gained 2.1% year-to-date and 3.3% over the past 52 weeks, Visa has shown stronger performance over the past year [6] - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Visa, with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" from 36 analysts and a mean price target of $402.57, indicating a 22.3% premium to current levels [6]

Core Insights - Thredd has signed an agreement to enable Visa Cloud Connect on a global scale, marking a significant milestone in its operations [1] - This development highlights Thredd's ongoing investment in cloud-first infrastructure, reinforcing its position as a technology leader in the payments processing industry [1] - Visa Cloud Connect provides organizations with access to VisaNet, Visa's secure global payments network, through their own cloud-based infrastructure [1] Company Summary - Thredd is recognized as a leading next-generation global payments processor [1] - The agreement with Visa signifies Thredd's commitment to enhancing its technological capabilities and expanding its service offerings [1] Industry Summary - The integration of Visa Cloud Connect represents a trend towards cloud-based solutions in the payments processing sector [1] - Access to VisaNet through cloud infrastructure is expected to enhance operational efficiency and security for organizations utilizing Thredd's services [1]

Core Insights - Visa is positioned as a "hyperscaler" in the payments industry, facilitating partners to leverage its network, with stablecoin settlements surpassing a $2.5 billion annualized run rate [1][4]. Financial Performance - Visa's fiscal fourth quarter results indicated an 8% increase in U.S. payments volume, with both credit and debit spending also rising by 8% [2][8]. - Value-added services revenue grew by 25% in constant dollars, reaching $3 billion, driven by issuing solutions [4]. - Full year fiscal 2025 commercial payments volume increased by 7% in constant currency to $1.8 billion, with cross-border volumes up 11% and eCommerce up 13% [8]. Market Trends - There is broad-based strength in spending categories, including retail services, travel, and fuel, with both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending increasing from Q3 [3][10]. - The number of Visa tokens issued has risen to over 16 billion, up from 10 billion in May 2024, with a goal of 100% of e-Commerce transactions being tokenized [6]. Technological Advancements - Visa is deploying a next-generation VisaNet with a cloud-ready microservices architecture, over half of which was developed using generative AI [5]. - The company is enhancing its support for four stablecoins, allowing conversions to over two dozen fiat currencies [4]. Consumer Behavior - Contactless payments have gained traction, with 79% of face-to-face transactions being tap-to-pay, an increase of 8% year-over-year; in the U.S., this figure stands at 66% [7]. - Higher spending cardholders are driving growth, indicating consumer resilience in the current economic climate [10]. Future Outlook - Visa anticipates adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits for the current fiscal year, reflecting positive market conditions [9]. - The company is focusing on "agentic commerce," which could lead to increased transactions as consumers engage with a broader range of merchants [12].