以下文章来源于环球杂志 ，作者杨成玉 胡根润 环球杂志 . 新华社瞭望周刊社环球杂志 关店主因是"经营成本同比上涨18%"与"居民人均可支配收入同比下降2.3%"的双重挤压——酒精饮 料批发价、商业地产租金、能源成本叠加上涨，使单店盈亏平衡点较新冠疫情前的2019年提升 35%，而消费者更倾向于以"家庭聚饮或超市促销酒品"替代酒吧消费，进一步加剧了供需失衡。更严 峻的是，英国政府的2025年缩减"小微企业税费减免"政策，使关店节奏加快至约为"日均一家"。 德国的"啤酒花园效应"同样未能撑起餐饮旺季惯性，旺季"回暖不及预期"。德国联邦政府统计数据显 示，2025年上半年德国餐饮住宿业营业额同比下降了3.7%，其中餐饮行业同比下降4.1%。相比新冠 疫情前的2019年，目前德国餐饮业实际营业额下降了约15%。 与此同时，西班牙、荷兰、葡萄牙等国的餐饮业也陷入"生存危机"，破产潮集中爆发。仅2025年第 一季度，西班牙酒店餐饮业就流失14.28万个工作岗位，其中餐饮企业裁员占比超60%；荷兰海牙酒 店学院通过"成本-现金流模型"预测，2025年荷兰将有近450家餐馆破产，数量比2020年疫情高峰时 增加23%；葡萄 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 3.3% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 14.82 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit decline of 11% to RMB 1.74 billion, which is better than the company's guidance and slightly exceeds expectations [6] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of RMB 0.34 per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [6] - Inventory levels are healthy, but discount pressures have increased due to weak industry demand and intensified competition [6] - The company continues to focus on professional sports categories, with running and training categories performing well, while basketball is still recovering [6] - E-commerce sales outperformed offline sales, with e-commerce revenue growing 7% to RMB 4.3 billion, accounting for 29% of total revenue [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2023 is RMB 27.6 billion, with a growth rate of 7%, and a projected revenue of RMB 31.2 billion by 2027 [5] - The net profit forecast for 2023 is RMB 3.19 billion, with a decline of 22%, and expected to reach RMB 2.78 billion by 2027 [5] - The gross margin is projected to be around 48.8% in 2025, with a slight decrease from previous years [5] - The company maintains its full-year guidance, aiming for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].