上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 23 日 李宁 (02331) —— 专业运动引领销售表现，营销加大积淀品牌势能 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 19.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 21.00/12.56 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 509.21 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,584.81 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0955 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -5% 45% 95% HSCEI 李宁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23297818× liupei@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位：人民币 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].