Asia Pacific Equity Research 21 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Humanoid Robot Sector's continued ascent evident in Global TMT takeaways, Xpeng's move, UBTech's order wins In this note, we share takeaways from the Global TMT con ...

Group 1 - Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center has launched the open-source embodied intelligence platform "Wisdom Open" SDK in collaboration with UBTECH, marking a new phase in the open-source ecosystem for embodied intelligence [1][2] - The newly introduced open-source embodied world model WoW aims to help robots quickly learn various skills, enhancing their operational capabilities in real-world applications [1][2] - The development of specialized models for material handling has improved robots' generalization recognition abilities, allowing them to efficiently handle various types of cargo boxes [1] Group 2 - The embodied intelligence platform and world model have established a comprehensive data system that supports high-quality training for different robotic bodies and task scenarios [2] - The dual open-source strategy of "platform + model" is seen as a foundational infrastructure for the industry, potentially attracting more developers and fostering a cycle of technological iteration [2] - The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with Beijing Humanoid's robots already operational in factories, performing tasks such as box handling and transportation [2] Group 3 - Other companies in the industry are also pushing for commercialization, with UBTECH achieving mass application of its Walker S robot in industrial settings [3] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with open-source ecosystems becoming a competitive advantage for leading companies [3] - The focus is shifting from single-point technological breakthroughs to competitive ecosystems, particularly in standardized industrial applications, which are easier to commercialize [3]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing accelerated delivery and commercialization, with multiple companies achieving significant milestones in production and deployment [2][3][5] - Accelerated Evolution has launched a new robot and an entry-level embodied intelligence development hardware platform, BoosterK1, with plans for mass delivery and a focus on creating a global ecosystem [1][4] Group 1: Company Developments - Accelerated Evolution has achieved stable mass production and delivery of robots globally, with over 700 units shipped by 2025 and plans to increase capacity to tens of thousands by 2026 [1] - The company has received bulk orders from leading clients, including research institutions and tech companies, and signed over a thousand dealer orders at the Booster K1 launch event [2] - The new Booster K1 robot is priced at 29,900 yuan for the first 100 units, significantly lowering the entry barrier for the industry [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The humanoid robot sector is seeing a surge in product development and application across various scenarios, with companies like UBTECH and Yushun Technology also making strides in the market [2][3] - Capital markets remain optimistic about the humanoid robot sector, with Accelerated Evolution completing multiple rounds of financing and other companies like Leju Robotics securing significant Pre-IPO funding [3] - The industry is moving towards a new phase of commercialization, with mass production capabilities becoming a key indicator of technological maturity [3][5] Group 3: Ecosystem and Collaboration - Accelerated Evolution has established over 200 global ecosystem partners and is promoting a "百城万校计划" (Hundred Cities, Ten Thousand Schools Plan) to cover over 1,000 universities [4] - The company aims to provide a "growing and iterative" development infrastructure, enhancing developer creativity and linking industry resources to promote the widespread adoption of humanoid robots [4] - Industry experts emphasize the need for strict quality control, accelerated developer ecosystem construction, and suitable commercial scenarios to address existing challenges in delivery and product stability [5]

Core Insights - The human-shaped robot industry in China is experiencing rapid development, transitioning from the "technology verification period" to the "scale commercialization period" by 2025, with the global embodied intelligence market expected to reach 19.525 billion yuan, nearly half of which will come from China [1][2] Industry Developments - The rise of human-shaped robots is attributed to breakthroughs in embodied intelligence technology, which integrates artificial intelligence into physical entities, enabling them to perceive, learn, and interact with their environment like humans [2] - The structure of embodied intelligence is categorized into "brain," "cerebellum," and "body," where the "brain" refers to AI models responsible for language interaction and task decision-making, while the "cerebellum" focuses on motion control algorithms [2] - Significant advancements in AI models have enhanced the perception, decision-making, and natural interaction capabilities of human-shaped robots, moving them from mere mechanical execution to intelligent agents [2] Technological Breakthroughs - Continuous improvements in core components such as perception algorithms, servo motors, and reducers have significantly increased the dexterity, stability, and autonomy of robots, laying a solid foundation for practical applications [3] - The development of end-to-end unified models allows for low-cost hardware to perform intricate tasks like grasping and folding clothes, showcasing the progress in the "brain" aspect of human-shaped robots [2] Real-World Applications - Human-shaped robots are now being deployed in various sectors, including factories, healthcare, and homes, demonstrating their ability to perform complex tasks autonomously, such as quality inspection and component sorting [4] - The "Galbot" robot from Galaxy General is a prime example, capable of visual perception-based object recognition and path planning, marking a shift from traditional industrial robots that rely on preset routes [4] - In the healthcare sector, exoskeleton robots are assisting stroke patients in relearning to walk, utilizing AI algorithms to provide personalized rehabilitation strategies [5] Future Outlook - The human-shaped robot market is expected to evolve from specialized to general-purpose robots, with companies focusing on developing versatile robots that can adapt to various unstructured environments [5] - As production scales and technology matures, the costs associated with human-shaped robots are anticipated to decrease, similar to the trend observed with industrial robots in the early 2000s [5] - Future general-purpose human-shaped robots are envisioned to be intelligent companions that understand human intentions and adapt proactively to their surroundings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot company UBTECH has signed a procurement contract with Tianqi Co., Ltd. for the purchase of industrial humanoid robots, marking a significant step in their partnership and indicating a new phase of scaled cooperation [3] Group 1: Contract and Orders - UBTECH's subsidiary UQI has signed a procurement contract worth 30 million yuan with Tianqi Co., Ltd., with delivery expected by December 31, 2025 [3] - Since the release of its mid-year report in 2025, UBTECH has disclosed new orders totaling over 430 million yuan, including a 50 million yuan order delivered in the first half of the year [3] - The company has also secured a 250 million yuan contract for humanoid robot products and solutions, considered the largest single contract in the global humanoid robot market [5] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - UBTECH's stock price has surged by 47.75% in September, with a total market capitalization reaching 66.731 billion HKD [3] - The company has adjusted its forecast for industrial robot orders from 300-500 units to over 500 units for 2025, with total orders expected to reach around 800 units [9] - For 2026, UBTECH anticipates humanoid robot shipments to reach between 2,000 and 3,000 units, driven by strong customer demand [9] Group 3: Technological Advancements - UBTECH has upgraded its Walker S series robots, enhancing their capabilities through the integration of NVIDIA's high-performance chips and training platforms [8] - The company is transitioning from CNC processing to mold manufacturing for certain components, which is expected to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [9] - Industry insiders note that while humanoid robots are still in the early stages of mass production, UBTECH is leading in order acquisition compared to its competitors [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the rapid development and commercialization of humanoid robots in China, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment, with a strong expectation for mass production to begin in 2025 [2][8][30]. Policy Support - Central and local governments are actively promoting the humanoid robot industry through various policies, including the "three-step" strategy outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aiming for significant technological breakthroughs and mass production by 2025 [9][15]. - Regions are developing differentiated strategies, with eastern areas focusing on high-end research and western regions emphasizing supply chain localization and cost control [19][22]. Technological Innovation - Significant advancements in core components and lightweight design have been achieved by domestic companies, while foreign competitors maintain a lead in hardware design and AI decision-making systems [2][4]. - Companies like Unitree Technology and the "Gongga No.1" have made notable progress in lightweight design and structural innovation, enhancing market competitiveness [9][10]. Commercialization Progress - A surge in startup companies in the humanoid robot sector is expected in 2024, with several firms already achieving large-scale deliveries and partnerships with well-known automotive and logistics companies [3][4]. - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for mass production, with companies like Unitree and Zhiyuan Robotics expected to sell over a thousand units [3][4]. Investment Landscape - The investment environment for humanoid robots is highly active, with significant funding directed towards early-stage projects, particularly in core technology development [24][29]. - Major tech companies and local governments are establishing funds to support the growth of the humanoid robot industry, with investments ranging from 2 billion to 100 billion yuan [25][29]. Competitive Landscape - The humanoid robot market features three main types of players: automotive companies, startups, and tech giants, each with unique advantages and challenges [32][34]. - Automotive companies leverage their manufacturing experience and supply chain capabilities to reduce costs and enhance application scenarios, while startups focus on rapid product iteration and technological specialization [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the humanoid robot industry, anticipating significant growth and commercialization by 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China is experiencing rapid development driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and capital investment, with expectations of reshaping the industrial ecosystem in the next 5-10 years [1][9]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for mass production, with several startups expected to deliver over a thousand units [2][36]. - The collaboration between technology giants and automotive manufacturers is fostering innovation and accelerating the application of humanoid robots across various sectors [3][12]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the critical juncture for the humanoid robot industry, emphasizing the integration of AI and advanced manufacturing as key drivers for growth [9][10]. Policy Support - Central and local governments are actively promoting the humanoid robot industry through various policies, including the "three-step" strategy outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [18][19]. - Significant funding initiatives, such as a 100 billion yuan industry fund in Beijing, are being established to support research and development [23][24]. Supply Side - The report identifies three main types of players in the humanoid robot market: automotive companies, startups, and technology giants, each with distinct advantages [37]. - Notable startups like Unitree Technology and ZhiYuan Robotics are making strides in production and delivery, with expectations of significant sales in 2025 [2][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic humanoid robot manufacturers and their supply chains, including companies like Unitree, ZhiYuan, and automotive manufacturers like Xiaopeng and Xiaomi [4][36]. - It highlights the importance of hardware innovations, such as dexterous hand transmission solutions and lightweight materials, as key areas for investment [3][4]. Capital Investment - The humanoid robot sector has seen a surge in early-stage investments, with over 153.5 billion yuan raised in the first half of 2025, primarily in the core technology and product development areas [30][31]. - Local governments are establishing funds ranging from 2 billion to 100 billion yuan to support various segments of the humanoid robot industry [31][36].

那么，在这场二十年一遇的价值重估中，谁是真正的弄潮儿？ 产业信号密集释放，马斯克豪言机器人成特斯拉价值核心 2025年以来，机器人不再只是展会上的噱头，而是在技术、产业和资本多个层面同步发出加速落地的信号。过去几年它们还停留在实验室样机阶段，而如 今，量产和商业化的逻辑开始逐渐清晰。 入秋以来，机器人赛道更加火热。 港股机器人概念中，地平线机器人市值年内累涨181%，首程控股市值年内累涨133%，越疆市值年内累涨118%，优必选市值年内累涨96%，三花智控市值年 内累涨43%，极智嘉市值年内累涨31%。 9月8日落幕的智博会上，人形机器人不仅能完成格斗、跳舞，还能承担清扫、搬运等实用任务，标志着"机器人+场景"的商业化正在加速。特别是，特斯拉 Optimus的迭代牵动全球资本神经，优必选更凭借2.5亿元大单释放出规模化信号。 除了整机厂吸引目光，背后的供应链龙头也在加速奔跑。三花智控近期获纳入恒生综合指数成分股，8日A股涨停板封单近30万手，港股也涨超10%。展示 出市场对其从汽车零部件到机器人零部件业务拓展的认可。 这只是个开始。就像由iPhone在2007年开启的制造业大周期，随着机器人从实验室与展会走向 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that UBTECH Robotics has secured a record procurement contract worth 250 million yuan for humanoid robots, marking the largest single contract in the global humanoid robot market to date [1] - UBTECH's Walker series humanoid robots have achieved nearly 400 million yuan in contracts so far, including 50 million yuan in orders delivered in the first half of the year [1] - The company has also launched a full-size research and education humanoid robot in collaboration with the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that China's robot market will double from 47 billion USD in 2024 to 108 billion USD by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 23% [2] - By 2030, the number of humanoid robots in China is expected to reach 252,000 units, increasing to 30.2 million units by 2050, which will account for 30% of the global humanoid robot stock [4] - In 2025, a milestone year for humanoid robot mass production is anticipated [4] Group 3 - In June, China's industrial robot production increased by 35.5% year-on-year, reaching 69,056 units, while service robot production grew by 13.8% to approximately 1.216 million units [4] - As of August 29, UBTECH reported a revenue of 621 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, with a narrowed loss of 440 million yuan [4] - The company has invested 218 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 35.1% of its revenue [4]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot Walker S by UBTECH has made significant advancements in industrial applications, performing tasks such as quality inspection of door locks and safety belts, showcasing its dexterity and potential in manufacturing settings [1][2] - UBTECH has become the first humanoid robot company to go public, listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 29, 2023, marking a milestone for the industry [2] - The humanoid robot industry is gaining traction with government support and increasing interest from various companies, indicating a potential shift in manufacturing and service sectors [1][3][4] Industry Developments - The humanoid robot Walker S is being tested in automotive manufacturing, indicating a strategic entry point for humanoid robots into industrial environments [2] - Other companies, such as Xiaomi and XPeng, are also developing humanoid robots, highlighting a competitive landscape in the sector [3] - Startups like Zhujidi Power and Xingdong Jiyuan are emerging, focusing on commercial applications of humanoid robots, with significant funding backing their innovations [4][5] Investment Trends - The humanoid robot sector has attracted substantial investment, with nine companies in China raising over 1.9 billion yuan in 2023 alone [5][6] - Notable funding rounds include over 1 billion yuan for Xingdong Jiyuan and nearly 1 billion yuan for Yushu Technology, indicating strong investor confidence in the market [6] Technological Advancements - The humanoid robot industry is supported by a well-developed supply chain, with key components including sensory, control, and execution systems being produced domestically [7] - The rise of generative AI is enhancing the capabilities of humanoid robots, making them more adaptable and improving their interaction with humans [8] Challenges and Recommendations - Industry experts have identified challenges such as high product costs and the need for improved key technologies, which could hinder the commercialization of humanoid robots [9][10] - Recommendations include establishing national innovation platforms and enhancing collaboration between academia and industry to accelerate technological advancements [10]