晨会纪要（2025/10/16） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.16） 行业研究 9 月挖掘机销量为 19858 台，同比增长 25.4%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/10/16） 行业研究 9 月挖掘机销量为 19858 台，同比增长 25.4%——机械设备行业周报 宁前羽（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522070001） 1、行业要闻 （1）9 月挖掘机销量为 19858 台，同比增长 25.4%； （2）9 月装载机销量为 10530 台，同比增长 30.5%； （3）9 月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为 78.1 小时。 2、公司公告 （1）宗申动力发布 2025 年前三季度业绩预告，归母净利润同比增长 70%-100%； （2）英维克发布 2025 年三季度报告，前三季度营业收入同比增长 40.19%。 3、周行情回顾 2025 ...

Figure 03 搭载了重新设计的传感套件与手部系统，从而适应更广泛应用场景。此次，Figure 03 搭载了 完全重新设计的传感套件与手部系统，在视觉系统方面，Figure 03 采用全新相机架构，使其在更紧凑 的机身尺寸内，帧率提升一倍、延迟降至原来的四分之一、单相机视野范围扩大60%，同时结合扩展的 景深技术，能提供密度更高、稳定性更强的感知数据流。在手部系统方面，Figure 03 采用指尖采用更 柔软、适应性更强的材质，增大了接触面积，能够更稳定地抓取不同形状与尺寸的物体，进而提升了手 的灵活性和触觉感知。升级后的视觉系统有助于在商业环境中进行导航和精细操作。手部的物理改进使 其能够更好地处理细小颗粒、金属片等常见工业材料。通过硬件端的升级，Figure 03 可以适应更广泛 的应用场景。 借助Helix 系统，Figure 03 实现机器人自主决策。Helix AI 系统是Figure AI 自研的通用的视觉 - 语言 - 动作（VLA）模型，它统一了感知、语言理解和学习控制，从而可以更好的处理自然语言指令、处理 摄像头捕捉到的信息，并控制机器人完成"端到端"的自主作业。Figure 03 的硬 ...

马斯克"全职打工"首战告捷：机器人Optimus练起中国功夫，量产倒计时启动 当马斯克在社交平台X上放出那段Optimus机器人模仿人类练习功夫的视频时，评论区瞬间沸腾了。画面中这个身高 近1.8米的金属躯体，正以令人惊讶的流畅度复刻着武术动作，背部的牵引绳是它唯一的束缚。 这不再是实验室里的 机械舞表演，而是一场真正的人机交互革命。 马斯克亲自下场回应质疑："是AI，不是遥控。"这六个字的分量，足以让整个科技界为之一震。要知道，就在三个月 前，这位"硅谷钢铁侠"刚刚宣布结束"半退休"状态，重新以"全职打工人"身份回归特斯拉核心业务。现在看来，这个 决定正在产生惊人的化学反应。 Optimus的功夫秀绝非偶然。细心的观察者会发现，特斯拉官方在9月30日突然放出重磅消息：第三代Optimus将在 2025年底面世，2026年启动量产，2030年前要实现年产百万台的目标。这个时间表与马斯克9月16日"全身心投入机 器人生产"的宣言形成完美呼应，就像精心编排的科技交响曲。 资本市场最先嗅到气息。华鑫证券的分析师们连夜修改研报，指出"马斯克工作重心的回归直接扭转了上半年研发停 滞的颓势"。东方证券更是大胆预测，特斯拉 ...

东方证券称，机器人龙头量产持续加速。从海外看，特斯拉第三代Optimus机器人即将发布并开始量 产；从国内看，优必选、智元等多家公司获亿元级别订单。人形机器人正处于从研发走向量产的拐点时 刻，行业大单频出，反映行业景气度加速上升。 人形机器人商业化进程持续加速，核心产业链有望受益。国证机器人产业指数聚焦人形机器人核心环 节，相关个股合计权重近八成，"人形含量"在ETF跟踪指数中位居第一。机器人ETF易方达（159530） 在跟踪该指数的所有ETF中规模位居第一，可助力投资者一键布局人形机器人产业龙头。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 机器人板块午后维持涨势，截至13:48，国证机器人产业指数上涨1.0%，机器人ETF易方达（159530） 盘中获3000万份净申购。Wind数据显示，该产品今年以来强势"吸金"，年内规模增速居股票型ETF第 一，最新规模已突破130亿元，创历史新高。 消息面上，机器人龙头企业优必选于昨日宣布再签3000万元人形机器人大单，企业总订单金额已逼近 4.3亿元；开普勒机器人于近日正式发布K2大黄蜂量产启动视频，宣告全球首款商业可售的混动架构人 形机器人开始交付商业订单，据悉，开普勒机器人 ...

Market Overview - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with a total net inflow of approximately 25.3 billion yuan into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1][3]. ETF Performance - Sector-themed ETFs such as those related to securities and robotics attracted significant capital, while chip-related ETFs faced substantial sell-offs [2][15]. - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12.45 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3820.09 points, down 1.3%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13070.86 points, up 1.14% [3]. Specific ETF Insights - The large-cap wide-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 120.05 billion yuan, with the Kweichow Moutai 50 ETF seeing a net outflow of 43.18 billion yuan [7][10]. - The Kweichow Moutai 50 ETF's share count fell below 50 billion, with a year-to-date reduction of 39.528 billion shares and a net outflow of over 40 billion yuan [10]. Sector Analysis - In the sector-themed ETF space, 64 funds saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with securities ETFs, robotics ETFs, and brokerage ETFs leading the way with net inflows of 4.791 billion yuan, 2.758 billion yuan, and 2.289 billion yuan, respectively [13][14]. - Notably, the securities sector is viewed as having significant upside potential due to its relatively low year-to-date performance, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [17][18]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and ongoing domestic growth initiatives [24]. - Upcoming listings of multiple ETFs tracking technology innovation bonds and other sectors are anticipated to attract additional capital [26].

Market Overview - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with a total net inflow of approximately 25.3 billion yuan into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09 points, down 1.3% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14% to 13070.86 points [2] ETF Performance - The major wide-based index ETFs experienced a total net outflow of 12.005 billion yuan, with the ChiNext index being the only one to see net inflow [5][8] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw a significant net outflow of 4.318 billion yuan, with its total shares dropping below 50 billion [10][12] Sector Analysis - In sector-specific ETFs, securities and robotics ETFs attracted significant inflows, with net inflows of 4.791 billion yuan and 2.758 billion yuan respectively [13][18] - Conversely, chip-related ETFs faced substantial outflows, with the chip ETF experiencing a net outflow of 8.82 million yuan [16] Trading Activity - A total of 26 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan this week, indicating robust trading activity in the ETF market [22] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF recorded a trading volume of over 60 billion yuan, highlighting strong investor interest [24] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, may lead to increased liquidity and a potential recovery in domestic investments [12][24] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with Tesla's recent order for 10,000 humanoid robots indicating a shift towards commercialization [21]

中国人形机器人概念股近期掀起了一轮猛烈涨势。17日周三，A股市场全天震荡走强，机器人板块延续强势，再度掀起涨停潮，芯片产业链全天 持续走高。自9月5日以来，相关产业链股票平均上涨13.5%，远超同期市场表现。 据追风交易台消息，据摩根士丹利最新研报，这一波行情的核心驱动力，正是特斯拉Optimus的密集动态与全球科技厂商的最新推进。 大摩表示，9月5日特斯拉公布新激励方案及人形机器人量产路线图，随后一系列关于Optimus Gen3与新生产计划的表态持续发酵，带动价值链企 业逆势跑赢大盘。与此同时，FigureAI等头部玩家同步放出重磅消息预告，引发投资者对行业商业化突破的高度关注。 在中国本土，订单释放已进入密集窗口，数家集成商合计签约近十亿元人民币大单。按摩根士丹利分析，当前行业正沿技术突破-订单确认-资本 催化的正向循环演绎，市场期待未来2-3个月特斯拉、FigureAI与本土独角兽的关键进展，为板块行情提供延续动力。 | El. 目标之外 小不 小 | | | --- | --- | | 日期 关键事件 | | | 七月 | 特斯拉2025年第二季度财报电话会议(7月 | | 23日）世界人工智能大会 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Greater Bay Area Human-Robot Industry Exhibition is scheduled to take place from October 31 to November 2, 2025, at the Zhuhai International Convention and Exhibition Center, focusing on service trade and humanoid robots [2] - The event aims to connect technological innovation in humanoid robotics with commercial applications, addressing urgent industry needs [2][3] - The exhibition will feature participation from leading companies such as Tesla, Tianlian Robotics, and others, providing a platform for businesses to access the latest technology trends and expand their commercial networks [3] Government and Industry Collaboration - The Greater Bay Area Service Trade Fair is the only large-scale exhibition in the region focused on service trade, supported by the governments of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau [2] - The event is expected to attract over 50 countries and regions, facilitating connections between Chinese enterprises and international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] - Strategic partnerships with over 20 international organizations are being established to enhance global outreach and collaboration [4] Industry Applications and Opportunities - The exhibition will showcase various service industry applications, including public safety, medical rehabilitation, education services, and smart dining, emphasizing the role of humanoid robots in digital transformation [6] - A comprehensive approach will be taken to address industry pain points, allowing companies to engage with key suppliers across the robotics value chain [6] Key Activities and Networking - Five core activities will be organized to foster collaboration across the entire industry ecosystem, including forums, roundtable discussions, and training sessions [8] - These activities aim to bridge the gap between technology research, industry application, and capital investment, promoting innovation and market cooperation [8] Regional Development and Support - Zhuhai is positioned as a policy innovation hub within the Greater Bay Area, actively supporting the development of AI and robotics industries [10] - The local government has invested 1 billion yuan to establish an aviation robotics hub, providing comprehensive support from research and development to large-scale application [10] - The exhibition will serve as a vital opportunity for companies to understand the latest trends and opportunities in the Greater Bay Area [10]

Group 1 - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing a surge in large orders, with companies like UBTECH securing a 250 million yuan contract, marking the largest single contract in the global humanoid robot market [1] - Other companies, such as Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushu Technology, have also won significant contracts, indicating a growing trend in the commercialization of humanoid robots [1][2] - The industry is predicted to see annual shipment volumes double in the coming years, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands to millions of units within 2 to 3 years if technological breakthroughs occur [2] Group 2 - Significant capital is flowing into humanoid robot companies, with 87 financing events reported in the first half of 2025, amounting to approximately 10.9 billion yuan [3] - The capital market is increasingly favoring humanoid robots, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics investing 2.1 billion yuan to acquire a listed company, and Yushu Technology starting its IPO process with a valuation of 12 billion yuan [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the humanoid robot market could exceed 5 trillion USD by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50% [4] Group 3 - Humanoid robots are expanding their applications beyond being seen as "large toys," moving into diverse fields such as manufacturing, home services, logistics, and education [4] - Companies like Yushu Technology and UBTECH are developing humanoid robots capable of complex tasks, indicating a shift towards practical industrial applications [4] - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and high-end manufacturing positions humanoid robots as a disruptive product in the tech landscape [4] Group 4 - China is establishing a competitive edge in the humanoid robot sector, with two-thirds of global robot patent applications originating from the country [5] - Over one-third of the top 100 global humanoid robot companies are based in China, supported by favorable policies and a robust industrial foundation [5] - The Chinese government has set ambitious goals for the humanoid robot industry, aiming for advanced global competitiveness by 2027 [5] Group 5 - The humanoid robot industry in China is poised to replicate the growth trajectory of the electric vehicle sector, driven by the convergence of technology, capital, and industry [6] - Each order, financing event, and patent application contributes to shaping the future landscape of the humanoid robot industry [6]

根据公开市场信息，此前人形机器人订单主要来自"发烧友"群体，即高校职校、科研院所等教育与科研 机构。这类客户数量分散、单体采购金额较小。从产业链角度看，这类客户侧重"二创"开发，属于技术 反馈而非产业驱动，并非长远规划中的主要客户群，对人形机器人产能拉动的能力有限。 随着大额订单的出现，人形机器人开始广泛触及商用市场。例如智元和宇树瓜分中国移动1.24亿元的采 购大单，优必选则于7月和9月两次刷新全球人形机器人最大单一合同（分别为9051.15万元和2.5亿 元）。这批人形机器人很可能将进驻营业厅、仓库和工厂。 走出实验室、走进工厂、最终走入千家万户，是人形机器人产业化的理想愿景。从"发烧友"到规模化企 业客户，再到海量普通消费者，则是其服务群体扩展的理想路径。 #人形机器人发展节奏明显加快# 【#机器人订单潮#：叫好之后考验叫座】秀操作之后是秀业绩，人形 机器人在2025年明显加快了发展节奏。近段时间，优必选、智元、宇树等企业接连宣布斩获上亿元采购 合同，宇树还计划在四季度递交上市申请（这意味着须公开业绩和财务状况）。 从年初的春晚舞蹈秀，到在马拉松、格斗大赛、运动会等赛事中出圈，人形机器人在典型企业的明星 ...