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固定收益部市场日报-20251124
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-24 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese government is considering a stimulus package to revive the property market, which led to some recovery in Chinese property bonds [2]. - SJM's acquisition of the L'Arc Hotel and termination of the Ponte 16 acquisition could delay its de - leverage trajectory and may lead to negative rating action [7][8]. - Xiaomi's solid credit profiles and strong performance in the Smart EV segment support a buy recommendation on its 30 - 31s bonds [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, new BBLTB 35s widened 1bp, new BBLTB 30s tightened 1bp, new SMBCAC 35s tightened 2 - 3bps, and there were better selling flows on existing SMBCAC 28s/34s [2]. - Asia IG space had some recoveries (1 - 2bps tighter) in TW lifers and KR/TH/SG T2s, but better selling on JP corps and some bank papers [2]. - JP AT1s and insurance subs struggled, while SOFTBK 31 - 65s were up 0.9 - 1.4pts, Yankee AT1s bounced back 0.3 - 0.5pt, and NWDEVL complex rose 0.2 - 1.0pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 0.5 - 0.8pt, LNGFOR 27 - 32 increased 0.2 - 0.3pt, and in SEA, VLLPM 27 - 29 dropped 0.8 - 2.4pts [2]. - In AU, INFRAB 14.5 28 lost 0.5pt, and in LGFV space, HFs bought higher - yielding issues and RMs sourced AAA - guaranteed papers [2]. Analyst Comments - SJMHOL: SJM is acquiring the L'Arc Hotel for HKD1.75bn and terminating the Ponte 16 acquisition. The pro - forma net debt/LTM EBITDA may increase to 7.3x from 6.8x as of Sep'25 [7][8]. - XIAOMI: In 3Q25, Xiaomi's revenue increased 22% yoy to RMB113.1bn, mainly driven by the Smart EV segment. Smartphones revenue declined 3.1% yoy, while Smart EV segment revenue rose 199% yoy and achieved a quarterly operating profit of RMB0.7bn [13][14][15]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P was down 1.56%, Dow was down 0.84%, and Nasdaq was down 2.15%. US initial jobless claims were +220k, lower than expected, and Sep'25 non - farm payroll was +119k, higher than expected [6]. - The US Sep'25 unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than expected, and UST yields were lower on Thursday [6]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Agricultural Bank of China Limited, Singapore Branch issued USD300mn 3 - year bonds at SOFR + 43 with an issue rating of A1/-/- [21]. - Pipeline: First Abu Dhabi Bank is planning a PerpNC6 issuance with a coupon of 6.375 - 6.5% and an issue rating of Baa3/-/- [22]. Onshore Primary Issuances - Yesterday, 153 credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB137bn. Month - to - date, 1,456 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,561bn, a 34.3% yoy increase [25]. - There were also various corporate news such as China Great Wall's asset - backed special plan, IDASAL's possible investment, and others [25].
小米公司- 2025 年第三季度 EPS 因电动汽车销量强劲及非运营收益超预期;更新我们对关键投资者争议问题的看法;买入
2025-11-19 01:50
Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$1.1 trillion / $136.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$859.5 billion / $110.6 billion - **12-Month Target Price**: HK$53.50, current price HK$40.78, implying 31.2% upside potential [1][4][7] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Grew by 22% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb46.0 billion, exceeding expectations [1][28] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Increased by 81% yoy, driven by higher AIoT gross profit margin (GPM) and investment gains [1] - **Smartphone Revenue**: Declined by 3% yoy, with total shipments of 43.3 million units [28] - **AIoT Revenue**: Grew by 6% yoy to Rmb27.6 billion, with GPM increasing by 3.2pp yoy to 23.9% [47] Core Themes from Management 1. **Smartphones**: - Focus on increasing average selling price (ASP) and market share in 2026 despite rising memory costs and declining industry shipments [2] - GPM forecasted at 10.1% for 4Q25 and 8.8% for 2026 [18][37] - Market share in China increased to 14.9% in 3Q25 [28] 2. **AIoT**: - Prioritizing profitability over growth, with overseas revenue expected to drive growth [2] - Connected devices reached over 1 billion, with a 20% yoy increase [47] 3. **Electric Vehicles (EV)**: - Achieved an IFRS net profit of Rmb0.7 billion in 3Q25, with a full-year delivery target of 350,000 units [2] - Increased shipment forecast to over 400,000 units in 2025 [19] 4. **Artificial Intelligence (AI)**: - Released multiple multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) to enhance smart home capabilities [2] 5. **New Retail Strategy**: - Focus on operational efficiency and store optimization in China, with continued expansion of Mi Home stores overseas [2] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue Forecasts**: 2025E revenue expected at Rmb365.9 billion, with slight adjustments for 2026E and 2027E [3][16] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Adjusted down by 4-5% for 2026E-27E due to smartphone GPM pressure [3] - **EPS Growth**: Expected to grow from Rmb1.07 in 2025E to Rmb2.23 in 2027E [16] Valuation Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E ratio projected at 16.6x for 2024, increasing to 23.3x in 2025E [13] - Free cash flow yield expected to decline from 7.2% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2026E [13] - **SOTP Valuation**: Target price of HK$53.5 based on sum-of-the-parts analysis, with significant contributions from smartphones, AIoT, and EV segments [20] Risks and Considerations - **Market Conditions**: Potential challenges from rising memory costs and competitive pressures in the smartphone market [18][37] - **AIoT Growth**: Domestic sales pressure noted during Singles' Day, with expectations for growth primarily from overseas markets [19] - **EV Segment**: Continued focus on new models and manufacturing capacity to meet growing demand [19] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain a "Buy" rating with a favorable risk-reward outlook for investors, despite potential near-term challenges [19][20]
Indian market's shift towards premium devices to drive Snapdragon 8 chipsets adoption: Qualcomm
The Economic Times· 2025-10-05 08:49
Core Insights - Qualcomm is positioning India as a key market due to the government's push for manufacturing and the increasing demand for premium devices [1][10][13] - The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 Mobile Platform was launched as the world's fastest mobile system-on-a-chip, featuring a CPU processing speed of up to 4.6 GHz and GPU speed of 1.2 GHz per core [2][12][13] - The chipset includes a hexagon NPU with a 37% performance improvement over its predecessor, enhancing AI capabilities in applications such as real-time translation [6][7][13] Market Position - Snapdragon holds a 40% market share in the smartphone segment priced above Rs 25,000, indicating strong brand recognition in India [1][13] - The chipset will be featured in flagship devices from various global manufacturers, with Chinese smartphone makers leading the adoption [8][13] Government and Industry Engagement - Qualcomm is deepening its engagement with India's digital ecosystem, benefiting from local manufacturing initiatives and the growth of AI and automotive sectors [9][11][13] - The company has established strong relationships across government, retail, and carrier sectors, facilitating new opportunities and collaborations with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) [10][11][13] Employment and Local Impact - Qualcomm employs approximately 20,000 people in India, reflecting its commitment to the local market and workforce [11][13] - The company is actively collaborating with major PC manufacturers in India, enhancing its presence in the personal computer segment [12][13]
Xiaomi's New 17 Series May Resemble iPhone 17, Yet Packs Bold Tricks That Might Win Over Even Hardcore Apple Loyalists - Samsung Electronics Co (OTC:SSNLF), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Benzinga· 2025-09-26 09:47
Core Insights - Xiaomi has launched its 17 Series in China, directly targeting Apple's iPhone 17 lineup with competitive features and pricing [1][2] Product Features - The Xiaomi 17 Pro models include a 2.7-inch secondary display with a resolution of 904 x 572, a 120Hz refresh rate, and 3,500-nit brightness [3] - The Xiaomi 17 series features triple 50-megapixel cameras co-engineered with Leica, with the Pro Max having a larger telephoto sensor and faster f/2.6 aperture for improved low-light performance [6] - Battery capacities are significant, with the Xiaomi 17 at 7,000mAh, the Pro at 6,300mAh, and the Pro Max at 7,500mAh, all supporting 100W wired and 50W wireless charging [7] - All models are powered by Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 processor and run on Xiaomi HyperOS 3, based on Android 16, with configurations up to 16GB RAM and 1TB storage [8] Pricing and Availability - The Xiaomi 17 is priced at ¥4,499 (~$630), the Pro at ¥4,999 (~$700), and the Pro Max at ¥5,999 (~$840), with preorders open in China and a release date set for September 27 [9] Market Context - Apple's iPhone 17 series, launched on September 19, is experiencing strong sales, particularly for the Pro Max, priced from ¥9,999 ($1,406) [10] - Apple holds a 25.71% smartphone market share globally, while Xiaomi holds 10.82% [11]