关键假设：1）我们预测2025-2027 年公司总营收同比增速约为29.7%、24.5%、19.6%，其中，智能手机 与电脑类作为公司核心业务，2025-2027 年收入增速约为30.0%、25.5%、20.0%；2）公司凭借产品结构 优化、上游材料环节垂直整合及全球化产能布局降本等举措，公司毛利率将整体保持稳定。我们预测 2025-2027 年公司毛利率分别为16.1%、15.9%、15.8%。 催化剂：2026 年苹果及其他智能机品牌厂商推出折叠屏将对上游产业链产生显著推动。 风险提示：客户集中风险、iPhone 折叠屏手机推出存在不确定性、下游需求不及预期 首次覆盖蓝思科技（300433.SZ），给予"买入"评级。我们预计公司2025E/2026E/2027E营业收入分别为 906.57/1128.37/1349.03 亿元，同比增长29.7%/24.5%/19.6%；归母净利润分别为54.24/67.05/79.31 亿元， 同比增长49.7%/23.6%/18.3%，对应市盈率分别为26.2/21.2/17.9 倍。 业务介绍：蓝思科技是全球智能终端全产业链一站式精密制造解决方案服务商，公司主要聚焦 ...

郭明錤误以为，中国的安卓厂商，还会有意愿去跟进与苹果的全面竞争；误以为，苹果可以轻松定义一个热潮 2026年，苹果手机产品最大的重点、热点，是苹果的折叠屏手机；折叠屏手机是苹果AI最佳载体；苹果折叠屏手机会带动整个消费电子行业的竞争，折 叠屏手机市场的第三波风潮要来了。 11月底，郭明錤所做的这次对话，相当详细、全面讲述了他所认知的热点趋势，其中包括了当下热门的谷歌TPU、AI行业的循环交易等等话题。但他自己 谈话的重点，以及外界对他较为信服的部分，无疑还是苹果。 他的逻辑非常清晰。苹果今年的现实，以及未来两年的大背景是，AI Ready口号喊了好久，但却经历苹果少有的WWDC发布会翻车，Siri远远没有ready ——对天天体验ChatGPT和Gemini的人来说，远远不够好。 iPhone折叠屏手机值得期待 奇景却是，AI不ready完全没有影响苹果手机17系列的表现。没有AI的苹果17标准版大获全胜，17全系的产量超过了9600万台，比iPhone16大幅增长了 1000多万台，符合郭天王一年前的预期。 遗憾在于iPhone Air，销量不达预期，苹果下修产量到900万台，iPhone air 2将会延 ...

Core Insights - The technology sector is buzzing with discussions about Apple's upcoming devices, specifically the "iPhone 20" and a foldable iPhone, generating significant interest among tech enthusiasts [1] Group 1: Upcoming Devices - The foldable iPhone is expected to have a design similar to the recently released iPhone Air, featuring a thickness of approximately 4.5 to 4.8 millimeters, making it thinner than the iPhone Air's 5.6 millimeters [4] - Apple plans to incorporate COE technology into the "iPhone 20" by 2027, which is a cutting-edge display technology that integrates light-emitting and color-filtering functions into a single glass panel, resulting in a thinner and brighter display [4] - The "iPhone 20" is anticipated to feature a fully glass design with edge-to-edge display, although it may not reach the same level of innovation as the iPhone X [5]

Core Insights - The foldable smartphone market remains a crucial battleground for domestic manufacturers against Apple, with several companies launching new models in 2023 [2][6] - Despite the competitive landscape, the growth rate of the foldable smartphone market is slowing down, with expectations of intensified competition following Apple's anticipated entry into the market [2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2023, major Chinese brands like vivo, Xiaomi, and Honor have released new foldable models, including vivo's X Fold5 priced from 6,999 yuan [2][3] - The foldable smartphone market in China saw a shipment of 2.5 million units in Q4 2022, marking a 9.6% year-on-year decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth [4][5] - IDC forecasts that foldable smartphone shipments in China will reach approximately 9.17 million units in 2024, reflecting a 30.8% year-on-year growth, while 2023 is expected to see around 7.007 million units shipped, with a 114.5% increase [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The success of foldable smartphones is attributed to advancements in industrial design, battery technology, and screen components, alongside decreasing costs [3] - The vivo X Fold5 is noted for its lightweight design at 217 grams and features like IPX9+ water resistance and IP5X dust resistance, making it the world's first "three-proof" foldable smartphone [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Vivo aims to position itself as a partner to Apple by integrating features that enhance compatibility with Apple devices, such as Mac screen mirroring and cross-ecosystem connectivity [6][7] - The high-end smartphone market is primarily driven by the competition for Apple's user base, with domestic brands focusing on converting Apple users due to limited growth opportunities within the Android ecosystem [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Apple is expected to launch its foldable iPhone by 2026, with production anticipated to begin in late 2023, which could significantly impact the market dynamics [8] - Analysts predict that Apple's entry into the foldable smartphone market will create substantial growth opportunities, with an estimated production capacity of 7 to 8 million units for the foldable iPhone [8]