Core Insights - Altria's annual profit forecast is significantly below market expectations due to decreased demand for cigarettes and oral smoking alternatives like on! nicotine pouches [1] Company Summary - Altria is experiencing lower demand for its traditional cigarette products and newer oral smoking alternatives, which is impacting its profitability outlook [1] Industry Summary - The tobacco industry is facing challenges with declining demand for traditional smoking products, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards healthier alternatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, with expected revenues of $5.32 billion, reflecting a 0.4% decline year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected to grow by 4.4% to $1.44 [1][5] Earnings Performance - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.3%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% [2] - The current Zacks Rank for Altria is 2 (Buy), but it has an Earnings ESP of -0.04%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3][4] Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Strong pricing power, disciplined cost management, and momentum in smoke-free initiatives are expected to drive Q3 results [5] - Volume softness in traditional cigarettes is noted due to inflationary pressures, but robust pricing actions and strategic portfolio management are anticipated to offset this weakness [5] Key Growth Drivers - The high-margin oral tobacco business, particularly the growth of on! nicotine pouches, is a significant contributor to earnings resilience [6] - Continued consumer engagement through marketing efforts is expected to enhance brand equity and repeat usage [6][8] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria's stock has increased by 7.4%, outperforming the Zacks Tobacco industry's breakeven performance and the Consumer Staples sector's decline of 3.6% [7] - Compared to competitors, Altria has outperformed Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco, while underperforming Turning Point Brands [7] Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 11.49, below the industry average of 14.49, indicating compelling value for investors [9] - The valuation gap is notable when compared to competitors, with Philip Morris at 18.66 and Turning Point Brands at 23.94 [11] Investment Outlook - Altria's strong pricing strategies and expansion of smoke-free products, particularly on! nicotine pouches, position the company as an attractive investment option [12] - With steady earnings growth and solid cash flow, Altria is viewed as a reliable choice for stability and long-term returns in the consumer staples sector [12]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc.'s oral tobacco business is experiencing strong profitability, with adjusted operating companies income (OCI) margins increasing to 68.7% in Q2 2025, a rise of 3.1 percentage points year-over-year [1][8] - The growth driver is the on! nicotine pouches, which saw a volume increase of 26.5%, compensating for declines in traditional moist smokeless tobacco (MST) brands [2][8] - Sustaining profitability will depend on product mix, competitive pressures, and pricing dynamics in the nicotine pouch category [3][4] Oral Tobacco Business Performance - Altria's oral tobacco segment demonstrates strong operating efficiency despite a 1% dip in total shipment volumes [1][4] - The adjusted OCI increased by 10.9% due to strong pricing and cost efficiencies [2] - The share of on! in the nicotine pouch segment decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.7%, while its share in the total U.S. oral tobacco category rose to 8.7% [3] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. reported an adjusted operating income margin of 41.9% in Q2 2025, highlighting effective global pricing and cost management strategies [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. achieved a Stoker's products segment adjusted operating income margin of 44.3%, reflecting strong manufacturing efficiency and pricing power [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares have increased by 2.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the industry [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 12.02X, lower than the industry average of 14.68X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on a smoke-free future, with its on! nicotine pouches driving significant growth in the oral tobacco products segment, achieving a retail share of 8.7% in the U.S. [1][8] - The company reported a 26.5% increase in shipment volume, reaching 52.1 million cans in the second quarter of 2025, contributing to substantial profit growth [2][8] - Altria's strategy, executed through its subsidiary Helix, emphasizes aggressive brand-building and emotional connections with adult consumers to maintain momentum in a competitive market [3][4] Market Position and Competition - Philip Morris International Inc. is also advancing in the smoke-free product space, with these products accounting for 41% of total net revenues and over 42% of gross profit in the second quarter of 2025, showing 11.8% shipment growth [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is emerging as a competitor, with its Modern Oral sales increasing nearly eightfold year-over-year to $30.1 million, representing 26% of total revenues [6] Financial Performance - Altria's shares have increased by 15.4% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4.3% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.05X, lower than the industry average of 14.27X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. reported Q2 revenue and profit exceeding analysts' expectations, primarily driven by strong demand for its on! nicotine pouches [1][4] - The company is focusing on smoking alternatives to offset declining sales in traditional tobacco products [1][4] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 1.2%, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 1.8% decline [4] - Profits were reported at $1.44 per share, surpassing the forecast of $1.39 [4] - Sales of on! nicotine pouches surged by 26.5%, while smokeable tobacco shipments fell by 10.2% [4] Future Outlook - Altria anticipates full-year adjusted earnings between $5.35 and $5.45 per share, slightly above the previous estimate of $5.30 to $5.45 [4] - The company highlighted tariffs as a significant factor impacting costs this year [4][5] Market Challenges - NJOY vape sales were suspended due to a patent dispute, leading to a notable loss in the vape division [2][3] - The market for unregulated disposable vapes, primarily imported from China, has negatively affected US vape and tobacco businesses [3]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is advancing its smoke-free strategy, but faces significant challenges as domestic cigarette shipments fell 10.2% year over year, with Marlboro's retail share slipping to 41% [1][8] - The company's smoke-free offerings, particularly on! nicotine pouches, showed strong growth with shipments increasing by 26.5% to 52.1 million cans, capturing 8.7% of the U.S. oral tobacco market [2][8] - Despite the growth in smoke-free products, combustibles remain the economic anchor for Altria, generating $2.9 billion in adjusted operating companies income (OCI) with margins at 64.5% [3][8] - The overall performance indicates a company in transition, with cigarettes declining but still profitable, while oral nicotine is expanding from a smaller base [4] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. reported that 41% of its net revenues came from smoke-free products, with an 11.8% increase in shipment volumes, highlighting faster adoption in the reduced-risk category [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. experienced a 25% revenue increase to $116.6 million, with modern oral products contributing significantly to sales growth [6] Financial Performance - Altria's shares gained 0.8% over the past month, contrasting with a 3.2% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.01X, lower than the industry average of 14.99X [9] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 5.3% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is experiencing rising earnings due to price increases, but is facing significant declines in cigarette volumes, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend payouts [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Altria reported a 1.7% decline in overall revenue net of excise taxes to $5.29 billion, while adjusted EPS increased by 8.3% to $1.44, surpassing analyst expectations [3]. - The oral products segment, which includes on! nicotine pouches, saw a 6% revenue increase to $728 million, with shipment volumes rising 26.5% to 52.1 million cans [4]. - The cigarette business experienced a 10.2% decline in overall shipment volumes, with Marlboro brand shipments down 11.4% and other premium brands down 13% [5]. Dividend Analysis - Altria currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.02, totaling an annual rate of $4.08, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at $2.9 billion for the first half of the year, while dividends paid amounted to $3.5 billion [8]. - Cash flows are not covering the dividend payout for the first half of the year, which raises concerns, although the company covered $6.8 billion in dividends last year with $8.6 billion in free cash flow [9]. - The company ended the quarter with a debt-to-EBITDA leverage of 2 times, indicating that the dividend appears sustainable in the near term [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Altria's pricing power is strong, but the continuous decline in cigarette volumes poses a risk to future revenue [10]. - The company trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.5 based on 2025 analyst consensus, which is lower than its former unit, Philip Morris International [11]. - Despite being a solid dividend play, the stock is at a six-year high, and the ongoing volume declines in its core business suggest caution for potential investors [11].

Core Insights - Altria Group reported Q2 2025 results with adjusted earnings and revenue exceeding analyst expectations, driven by price increases and growth in oral tobacco products [1][2] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.44, surpassing the estimate of $1.39, and revenue reached $6.10 billion, despite a 1.7% decline year-over-year [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $1.44, up 8.3% year-over-year, compared to $1.33 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue (GAAP) was $6.10 billion, down 1.7% from $6.21 billion in Q2 2024, with smokeable products revenue at $5.36 billion, a 2.5% decline [2][5] - Oral tobacco products revenue increased by 5.9% to $753 million, driven by a 26.5% rise in on! nicotine pouch shipments [2][6] Business Overview and Strategy - Altria is a leading U.S. tobacco company known for Marlboro cigarettes and a range of smoke-free products, focusing on transitioning adult smokers to non-combustible products [3][4] - The company is investing in nicotine pouches and has made acquisitions like NJOY e-vapor to enhance its product offerings [4] Segment Performance - The smokeable products segment faced challenges, with a 10.2% drop in U.S. cigarette shipment volumes, leading to a 2.5% revenue decline [5] - Despite volume declines, the adjusted margin for smokeable products improved by 2.9 percentage points to 64.5% due to price increases and cost control [5] - Oral tobacco products showed growth, but total shipment volume declined by 1.0%, indicating challenges in traditional brands [6] Regulatory and Competitive Environment - The company is navigating a highly regulated environment and is focused on compliance and monitoring the impact of tariffs on its supply chain [8] - NJOY ACE, Altria's main e-vapor device, is currently off the U.S. market due to patent litigation, affecting its momentum in the e-vapor category [7] Capital Deployment and Shareholder Returns - In the first half of 2025, Altria returned $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and $600 million through share repurchases [9] - The company has $400 million remaining in its buyback authorization and maintains a focus on operational efficiency [9] Future Guidance - Altria raised its full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.35 to $5.45, projecting up to 5.0% growth [11] - The company continues its consistent dividend program and share repurchases, while monitoring developments in smoke-free product launches and regulatory outlooks [12]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings, with expectations of a slight revenue decline but earnings growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $4.6 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decline year-over-year [2]. - The earnings estimate has decreased by 2 cents to $1.17 per share, indicating a 1.7% growth from the same quarter last year [2]. - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 0.2%, but in the last quarter, it exceeded the consensus estimate by 1.6% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Altria, as it has an Earnings ESP of -2.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4]. Strategic Focus - Altria's strategic transformation towards smoke-free products is a key focus, with efforts to expand its portfolio of reduced-risk offerings like NJOY e-vapor products and on! nicotine pouches [5]. - The "Optimize & Accelerate" initiative aims to modernize operations and enhance progress towards a smoke-free vision [5]. Performance Influences - Strength in smoke-free products is expected to positively impact first-quarter performance, although significant investments in R&D and marketing may affect profitability [6]. - The Smokeable Products segment remains crucial, contributing 88.1% of total revenues in Q4 2024, but faces challenges from declining cigarette volumes due to macroeconomic factors [7]. Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.99, below the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 14.86, indicating attractive valuation for investors [8]. - Compared to competitors, Altria's valuation is lower than Philip Morris International (P/E of 22.74) and Turning Point Brands (P/E of 16.72), while British American Tobacco trades at a P/E of 9.23 [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria stock has returned 9.8%, underperforming the industry gain of 20.8% but outperforming the S&P 500's decline of 11% [11]. - Altria has shown relative strength compared to peers like Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco, but Philip Morris has outperformed with a 30.4% gain [11]. Investment Outlook - Altria's attractive valuation, defensive sector positioning, and stable performance make it a compelling choice for long-term investors in the tobacco sector [13].