Key Points Viking Therapeutics' shares plunged after mixed phase 2 results for a GLP-1 candidate. However, the data wasn't nearly as bad as the market's reaction suggested. Viking could soar on future progress with this and other candidates. 10 stocks we like better than Viking Therapeutics › Developing GLP-1 medicines is all the rage these days in the pharmaceutical and biotech industries. The market is growing rapidly, and many (if not most) leading drugmakers are looking to capitalize on the t ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's orforglipron shows superiority in lowering A1C levels compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in a head-to-head trial for type 2 diabetes treatment [2][3] - The reported weight loss results for orforglipron may not be directly comparable to those of oral semaglutide due to differences in dosage used in trials [4][6] - The trial results should not be interpreted as a definitive victory for Eli Lilly in the obesity treatment market, which remains a more lucrative segment [7] Eli Lilly's Trial Data - The head-to-head trial aimed at reducing A1C levels, with orforglipron achieving a 2.2% reduction at 36mg compared to a 1.4% reduction for oral semaglutide at 14mg [3] - Eli Lilly reported an average weight loss of 9.2% with orforglipron at the highest dosage, while oral semaglutide at 14mg resulted in a 5.3% reduction [4] - Novo Nordisk is testing oral semaglutide at a higher dosage of 25mg, which has shown an average weight reduction of 16.6% in its trials [6] Implications for Investors - The positive trial results for Eli Lilly in type 2 diabetes treatment do not necessarily indicate that orforglipron will outperform oral semaglutide in the obesity indication, which is a more profitable market [7]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 pill has outperformed Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pill in a phase three trial for type 2 diabetes, with a focus on both diabetes management and weight loss [1][2] - At the highest dose, Lilly's pill reduced blood sugar by 2.2% compared to 1.4% for Novo's oral version, and achieved a weight loss of approximately 9% versus 5% for Novo's product [2] - Lilly used about half the dose for weight loss compared to what Novo plans to use, which may affect real-world results [2][3] - Novo's pill is already available for diabetes at the tested dose, while it seeks approval for a higher dose to treat obesity [3] - Lilly's top scientist indicated that their drug has exceeded street estimates in three out of four studies, and variability in results is expected but not a primary concern for patients [4]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's experimental pill, orforglipron, has shown superior results in lowering blood sugar levels and promoting weight loss compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in a head-to-head study for Type 2 diabetes patients [3][4][5]. Company Summary - Eli Lilly's orforglipron achieved a 2.2% reduction in hemoglobin A1c levels at 52 weeks, outperforming Novo Nordisk's 1.4% reduction [3]. - The highest dose of orforglipron resulted in an average weight loss of 9.2% (19.7 pounds), compared to 5.3% (11 pounds) with Novo Nordisk's pill [4]. - Eli Lilly plans to apply for approval of orforglipron for Type 2 diabetes treatment in 2026 and aims for a global launch by next year [6]. Industry Summary - The GLP-1 market is projected to be worth around $100 billion by the 2030s, with oral GLP-1s potentially accounting for $50 billion of that total [7]. - There is a growing demand for more convenient treatment options to address supply shortages and access issues associated with current injectable medications [7].

Core Insights - The primary endpoint indicates that orforglipron significantly reduced A1C levels by 2.2% compared to a 1.4% reduction with oral semaglutide at the highest doses [1] - Participants receiving the highest dose of orforglipron experienced an average weight loss of 19.7 lbs, which is approximately 9.2% of their body weight [1]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) has received approval from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for an updated label reflecting cardiovascular benefits demonstrated in the SOUL trial, making it the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist with proven cardiovascular benefits for type 2 diabetes in the EU [1][6][8] Group 1: Product Approval and Clinical Trial Results - The SOUL trial, a phase 3b study with 9,650 participants, showed a 14% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) for those treated with oral semaglutide compared to placebo [5][6] - New results from the SOUL trial will be presented at the EASD 2025 Annual Meeting, indicating significant reductions in hospitalizations related to serious adverse events for oral semaglutide compared to placebo [2][8] - Rybelsus is now recognized as the only oral GLP-1 RA with proven cardiovascular benefits, alongside its established efficacy in blood glucose and body weight reduction [4][6][8] Group 2: Future Developments and Market Position - A decision regarding a label extension for Rybelsus in the US is anticipated later this year, which may further enhance its market position [3] - Novo Nordisk has submitted an application for a once-daily 25 mg oral formulation of semaglutide (Wegovy) for adults with obesity or overweight and cardiovascular disease, with a decision expected soon [3] - Rybelsus is currently available in 48 countries, with over 2.4 million patients being treated worldwide, highlighting its significant market presence [8]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are set to compete in the oral obesity drug market, with both companies planning to launch their respective pills in the U.S. next year, pending regulatory approval [3][4]. Group 1: Product Comparison - Lilly's oral drug, orforglipron, has shown about 12% weight loss in trials, while Novo's oral semaglutide has resulted in approximately 17% weight loss [8]. - Neither oral drug is as effective as Lilly's injectable Zepbound, which can help patients lose over 20% of their body weight [7][8]. - A head-to-head trial is forthcoming to compare the two pills, focusing on blood sugar reduction in Type 2 diabetes patients alongside weight loss [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts predict that oral drugs could capture about 20% of the projected $80 billion GLP-1 obesity drug market by 2030 [10]. - Skovronsky believes that oral medications may eventually become the primary treatment for obesity globally, potentially surpassing injectables in market share [11]. - The manufacturing of orforglipron is expected to be easier due to its small molecule structure, which does not have the same food and water restrictions as Novo's oral option [12][13]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Following the results from Lilly's trial, analysts have adjusted their market share estimates, moving some projections from orforglipron to oral semaglutide, with a reduction of about $4.5 billion in 2032 sales estimates for orforglipron [13]. - Skovronsky noted the unpredictability of market dynamics compared to scientific outcomes, emphasizing the need to observe how the market evolves [14].

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics experienced a significant 40% drop in stock price following the release of Phase 2 results for its oral obesity treatment VK2735, despite demonstrating a strong 12.2% weight loss signal over 13 weeks [1][2]. Company Developments - The Phase 3 VANQUISH program was launched on June 25, 2025, with two large trials enrolling: VANQUISH-1 for 4,500 adults with obesity and VANQUISH-2 for 1,100 adults with type 2 diabetes, both lasting 78 weeks [4]. - The injectable formulation previously showed a 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks with mild to moderate side effects that decreased over time, indicating potential for transitioning from injectables to oral pills for long-term management [5]. Market Opportunity - Goldman Sachs revised its 2030 obesity market forecast to $95 billion, suggesting that even a 2% market share could yield approximately $1.9 billion in annual revenue for Viking, which has a market cap of $2.9 billion [7]. - The company is exploring monthly dosing options for its injectable treatment, positioning itself alongside Novo Nordisk as one of the few to demonstrate efficacy in both oral and injectable forms [8]. Financial Position - Viking has $808 million in cash as of June 30, 2025, but faces a $300 million expense for its registrational program, making partnerships increasingly likely after further data analysis and FDA feedback [9]. - Wall Street maintains an average price target of $87 to $90 per share, indicating a potential 200% upside from current levels, attributed to a misunderstanding of trial design and tolerability issues [11]. Industry Context - The CDC reports that 40% of U.S. adults have obesity, highlighting a vast addressable market for obesity treatments [12]. - Big Pharma remains interested in obesity assets, with companies like AbbVie, Roche, and Amgen actively pursuing deals, making Viking's late-stage opportunity attractive, especially after the recent stock decline [10].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's obesity pill, orforglipron, has shown disappointing trial results compared to expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price, although it has since recovered somewhat [2][3]. Drug Efficacy and Comparison - In a late-stage trial, orforglipron resulted in less weight loss (12.4% at the highest dose) and higher side effects than anticipated, while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide showed greater efficacy (up to 16.6% weight loss) [13][14]. - Analysts believe that orforglipron could still be a viable competitor in the weight loss market, especially due to its easier absorption and manufacturing advantages over Novo Nordisk's peptide-based drug [5][6]. Market Potential and Projections - Goldman Sachs analysts project that daily oral weight loss pills could capture 24% of the $95 billion global weight loss drug market by 2030, with Eli Lilly's orforglipron expected to hold a 60% share of the daily oral segment, translating to approximately $13.6 billion [7][8]. Manufacturing and Pricing Considerations - Eli Lilly's orforglipron is a small-molecule drug, making it easier and potentially cheaper to manufacture compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide, which is a peptide medication [5][22]. - Pricing strategies for both drugs remain uncertain, but analysts suggest that orforglipron could be priced lower than Novo Nordisk's offering, which may provide a competitive edge in a market where many health plans do not cover obesity treatments [6][23]. Side Effects and Tolerability - The side effects of orforglipron, primarily gastrointestinal, led to a 10.3% discontinuation rate at the highest dose, which is higher than the placebo group [17][19]. - Comparatively, Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide had a higher incidence of gastrointestinal side effects, with 30.9% reporting vomiting and 46.6% reporting nausea [19]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is competitive, with other companies like Pfizer and Viking Therapeutics also developing oral medications, but Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are currently leading the race [9][27]. - Viking Therapeutics recently reported disappointing trial results, indicating that its drug may not be as effective as Eli Lilly's orforglipron [27][28].

Core Insights - The global obesity market is primarily dominated by Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), with LLY's Zepbound and NVO's Wegovy as leading GLP-1 injectable therapies. Zepbound has shown rapid sales growth, surpassing Wegovy in weight-loss efficacy in clinical studies [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, Zepbound generated $5.69 billion in revenues, prompting LLY to raise its full-year sales guidance to $60-$62 billion. In contrast, Wegovy recorded $5.41 billion in sales during the same period, leading Novo Nordisk to revise its sales outlook downward due to increased competition [2][8] - LLY faced a setback with its oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, which did not meet investor expectations in weight-loss efficacy, resulting in an 18.6% decline in LLY shares. This has shifted market confidence towards Novo Nordisk, which saw a 4.7% increase in its stock [3][4] Company Performance - LLY's stock has underperformed, losing 19% year-to-date compared to an 8.3% decline in the industry. The stock is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 22.85, higher than the industry average of 13.71, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [7][11] - Estimates for LLY's 2025 earnings have improved from $21.92 to $22.11 per share, while estimates for 2026 earnings have slightly declined from $30.84 to $30.74 [16] Market Developments - The setback with orforglipron has shifted focus towards oral obesity treatment options, which could enhance patient adherence. Novo Nordisk is seeking FDA approval for a 25 mg oral semaglutide, with a decision expected by year-end [5][8] - Other companies, such as Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the development of GLP-1-based obesity treatments, with ongoing studies for their investigational drug VK2735 [6]