Company and Industry Key Points 1. **Company Overview**: Cambricon is a leading Chinese AI chipset supplier. The company focuses on AI chipsets for various applications, including intelligent cluster systems for governments and autonomous driving chips. [44] 2. **Revenue Growth**: Goldman Sachs expects Cambricon's revenue to grow by 4%, 9%, and 16% in 2025E-2027E, driven by ongoing demand from government projects and the widening applications of AI technology. [5] 3. **Valuation**: Goldman Sachs uses a discounted EV/EBITDA methodology to derive a target price of Rmb538.0 for Cambricon. The target EV/EBITDA multiple is based on peers' trading EV/EBITDA vs. forward-year fundamentals. [2, 56] 4. **Key Risks**: The key risks identified include weaker/stronger-than-expected government projects, competition in AI chips and accelerators, slower/faster-than-expected local foundry supplies, slower/faster-than-expected expansion to non-government projects, and the company's addition to the US Entity List in December 2022. [3] 5. **M&A Rank**: Cambricon has an M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability (0%-15%) of being acquired. [14] 6. **Market Cap**: Cambricon's market cap is Rmb281.6bn ($38.6bn) as of December 2024. [45] 7. **Enterprise Value**: Cambricon's enterprise value is Rmb280.5bn ($38.4bn) as of December 2024. [45] 8. **Beta**: Cambricon's beta is 1.3. [23] 9. **Risk-Free Rate**: The risk-free rate is 3.0%. [23] 10. **Market Risk Premium**: The market risk premium is 6.5%. [23] 11. **Revenue Breakdown**: Cambricon's revenue breakdown by region is 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [27] 12. **Revenue Breakdown by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue breakdown by segment includes 63% AI chips (government projects), 57% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 13. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 14. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 15. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 16. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 17. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 18. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 19. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 20. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54]

US Machinery J P M O R G A N See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price ch ...

Summary of Key Points from the Earnings Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Telecom Services, Cable & Satellite** industry, particularly highlighting trends in **data center interconnect**, **transport**, **optical**, and **fiber-to-the-home** technologies [2][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Ciena**: The company has raised its long-term revenue guidance to **8-11%**, driven by expectations of a normalization in telecom spending. Despite current slower demand, there is optimism due to increasing data traffic from AI workloads, which is expected to benefit optical transport providers [19][19]. - **Coherent**: The telecom segment is showing signs of recovery, although broader macroeconomic conditions have led to revenue declines. There is cautious optimism regarding a potential macro recovery, particularly within the telecom sector [19][19]. - **Fabrinet**: The company reported a return to growth in the telecom segment, attributed to the recovery of traditional telecom demand, new system wins (e.g., Ciena), and steady demand for Data Center Interconnect solutions. Notably, demand for **ZR** (a type of optical technology) now accounts for **10%** of optical revenue [19][19]. - **Calix**: The impact of potential changes to the **BEAD** program remains uncertain. Despite recent inventory digestion affecting growth, Calix is confident in returning to double-digit revenue growth, with or without BEAD support [19][19]. Additional Important Information - The report includes insights from a recent **J.P. Morgan Hardware, Networking & Semis Bus Tour**, which provided a platform for discussions with various industry leaders, enhancing the understanding of current market dynamics [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of **data center interconnect** and **telecom recovery** as key drivers for growth in the sector, indicating a shift in demand patterns that could present investment opportunities [19][19]. - The document also contains various **disclosures** regarding the research methodology, analyst certifications, and potential conflicts of interest, ensuring transparency in the analysis provided [5][11][27]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and trends discussed in the earnings call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the telecom services industry.

Industry Overview * **Freight Market Recovery**: The freight market is expected to recover slowly in 2025, with truckload contract rates increasing by 1-3% YoY. The recovery will be gradual due to the presence of "shadow capacity" across various transportation modes and the significant surge in containerized imports in the second half of 2024. * **Inflation and Cost Inflation**: Inflation is expected to decelerate in 2025, which should help ease cost inflation. Maintenance and equipment inflation should settle down as contracts are pegged to CPI, while headcount is still elevated for U.S. rails. * **Policy Uncertainty**: The potential for tariffs and other policies could boost inflation and dampen the positive sentiment for a freight recovery. The impact from potential tariffs and other policies could boost inflation and dampen the positive sentiment for a freight recovery. * **Valuations**: Valuations in the transportation and logistics sector are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with potential upside from a new cycle in the spot market and lower tax and interest rates. Key Sector Themes and Sub-Sector Views * **Truckload Carriers and Brokers**: The truckload market is at the bottom of a long and grueling rate cycle. A gradual recovery is expected in 2025, with truckload contract rates increasing by 1-3% YoY. Top picks include CHRW and CP. * **LTL & Logistics**: The LTL sector is expected to see a positive re-rating as the subsector has become the most favored in transports. Top picks include XPO and JBHT. * **Intermodal**: The intermodal sector is expected to continue to benefit from railroads pivoting to growth and should start to get a few tailwinds from the truckload market. Top pick is JBHT. * **Parcels**: The parcel carriers are starting to look more interesting after a long-awaited pivot to price discipline and a focus on becoming Better and Smaller. Top picks include FDX and UPS. Company-Specific Views * **C.H. Robinson (CHRW)**: CHRW has restructured operations, leveraged technology, and improved discipline without diluting the value of its scale and knowledge. The company is on the path to decouple headcount from volume growth, boosting operating leverage. * **Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC)**: CPKC provides unique growth opportunities for shippers that are less sensitive to the freight cycle. The company has de-rated since the election and the spread versus NSC compressed by 2.5x or 42%. * **FedEx Corporation (FDX)**: FDX could potentially be affected by global tariffs under the new administration but the parcel carriers are starting to look more interesting after a long-awaited pivot to price discipline and a focus on becoming Better and Smaller. * **United Parcel Service (UPS)**: UPS could potentially be affected by global tariffs under the new administration but the parcel carriers are starting to look more interesting after a long-awaited pivot to price discipline and a focus on becoming Better and Smaller. Conclusion The transportation and logistics sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in 2025, driven by a slow freight market recovery and lower inflation. Valuations in the sector are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with potential upside from a new cycle in the spot market and lower tax and interest rates.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **China express industry** and its pricing trends, as well as logistics companies in Hong Kong and China. Core Points and Arguments - **Parcel Volume Growth vs. GMV Growth**: The call includes a figure illustrating the relationship between parcel volume growth and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth, indicating a correlation between the two metrics [2]. - **Industry Pricing Trends**: - The pricing trend for the China express industry shows fluctuations in average selling price (ASP) over the months from November 2023 to November 2024. The ASP has seen a decline from 9.0 RMB to 7.7 RMB, indicating a decrease of approximately 14.4% over the period [3]. - The ASP year-on-year (y-y) changes are also highlighted, suggesting a competitive pricing environment within the industry [3]. - **Logistics Comparisons**: A table comparing logistics companies in Hong Kong and China is referenced, which may provide insights into competitive positioning and market dynamics [7]. - **Investment Ratings**: - The document includes a series of investment ratings for various companies, with a consistent "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies over time, indicating a positive outlook on their performance. For instance, a company was rated OW with a price target of 41 HKD on March 12, 2022, and the price target has been adjusted over time [16]. - The latest ratings as of December 2024 show a range of price targets for different companies, reflecting ongoing evaluations of their market performance [21]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Analyst Contact Information**: The report includes contact details for Karen Li, CFA, who is responsible for the research, indicating a point of contact for further inquiries [24]. - **Research Methodology**: The document outlines the research methodology and the basis for the investment ratings, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis and market conditions in determining price targets [27]. - **Regulatory Disclosures**: There are multiple disclaimers regarding the regulatory environment and the responsibilities of J.P. Morgan in relation to the research provided, which may be relevant for compliance and legal considerations [28][41]. - **Market Conditions**: The report hints at broader market conditions affecting the logistics and express delivery sectors, which could impact future performance and investment decisions [40]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call notes, focusing on the express logistics industry in China and relevant investment insights.

19 December 2024 6 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 Goldman Sachs Americas Media | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|--------|----------------|------------------------|--------|-----------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------|-------|---------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------|---- ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved * **American Tower Corporation (AMT)**: A REIT that owns and operates wireless communications towers in the U.S., Latin America, Europe, and Africa. * **Cognex Corp (CGNX)**: A leading provider of machine vision products used in various end markets, including consumer electronics, automotive, and retail distribution. * **Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)**: A provider of mechanical and electrical contracting services for nonresidential construction end markets, with a particular skew towards manufacturing, technology, and institutional verticals. * **ConocoPhillips (COP)**: A leading exploration and production company with a globally diversified asset portfolio. * **CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR)**: A leading identity security vendor specializing in privileged account security. * **Dell Technologies (DELL)**: A provider of personal computers, servers, networking, storage arrays, and security solutions to enterprise and consumer markets. * **Elevance Health Inc (ELV)**: A managed care company offering Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance through its BCBSA state subsidiaries. * **Energy Transfer LP (ET)**: A company that owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the U.S. * **First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA)**: A bank with a footprint largely concentrated in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and West Coast markets. * **First Solar Inc (FSLR)**: The largest manufacturer of thin film solar modules globally. * **Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)**: A leading producer of innovative single-serve coffee brewing systems and the coffee pods (KCups) used in those brewers. * **Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN)**: An early commercial biotechnology company developing therapies for rare disorders, primarily Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). * **Mastercard Inc (MA)**: A global payment solutions company providing various services in support of credit, debit, and related payment programs of financial institutions. * **Oracle Corp (ORCL)**: A leading provider of database, middleware, business application software, and cloud infrastructure. * **Reinsurance Group of America Inc (RGA)**: A holding company offering traditional and non-traditional life and health reinsurance products and solutions. * **Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)**: A commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company developing therapies for rare disorders, primarily Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). * **Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)**: A designer and manufacturer of analog and embedded processing semiconductors. * **Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA)**: A leading specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. Core Views and Evidence * **AMT**: Expected to sustain ~5% domestic organic revenue growth in 2025 and accelerate to 5%+ in 2026 due to rising data traffic and increased carrier activity. [doc id='215'] * **CGNX**: Expected to see an acceleration to double-digit organic sales growth in 2025, driven by early cycle momentum in Logistics and Semiconductors and a positive inflection in short cycle Industrial and Consumer Electronics. [doc id='385'] * **FIX**: Expected to sustain EBIT margins of ~10% in 2024E into 2025E and 2026E due to strong demand backdrop and constrained labor environment. [doc id='367'] * **COP**: Expected to see a more capital efficient 2025 outlook and an increase in shareholder returns due to MRO integration catalysts and continued strong operational execution. [doc id='373'] * **CYBR**: Expected to maintain a 20%+ ARR growth profile while delivering on the margin story. [doc id='396'] * **DELL**: Expected to be a winner in the AI server market relative to peer HPE across Tier 2 Cloud and Enterprise markets, driving at least 10% ISG revenue growth next year. [doc id='416'] * **ELV**: Expected to return to normalized margins in 2026 as Medicaid rates improve and the company continues to win business and grow its Carelon business. [doc id='67'] * **ET**: Expected to benefit from strong growth in natural gas demand driven by the need to power data centers, coal to gas switching, and LNG exports. [doc id='426'] * **FCNCA**: Expected to see loan growth of 9%-10% in 2025/2026 and repurchase 14% of shares by YE2025. [doc id='410'] * **FSLR**: Expected to see EPS grow from $13.14 in 2024E to $30.79 in 2027E with incremental upside from capital redeployment. [doc id='104'] * **KDP**: Expected to deliver on its long-term algorithm with +MSD constant-FX revenue growth in 2025 and +HSD constant-FX EPS growth next year. [doc id='95'] * **LEGN**: Expected to see Carvykti sales performance surprise to the upside, with potential revenue reaching $1.7bn in 2025E. [doc id='136'] * **MA**: Expected to provide a balanced exposure to spend and support from value-added services, with attractive qualities including high FCF conversion and deep competitive moats. [doc id='144'] * **ORCL**: Expected to sustain 50%+ cloud infrastructure growth for the next several years, driving an overall topline revenue reacceleration to +10%/14% in FY25/26. [doc id='173'] * **RGA**: Expected to benefit from favorable global mortality and morbidity trends, supported by medical advancements like GLP-1 drugs, and upside to premium growth from key growth markets like Asia. [doc id='159'] * **SRPT**: Expected to see significant upside from its Elevidys launch in DMD and pipeline programs in LGMD, DM1, and FSHD. [doc id='167'] * **TXN**: Expected to see top analog semi companies grow +12% in 2025, with TXN exceeding this at +30% as it begins to undo its pandemic era share losses. [doc id='435'] * **ULTA**: Expected to stabilize its top-line performance and drive positive estimate revisions, leading to upward pressure on its multiple. [doc id='570'] Other Important Points * **Market Trends**: The report discusses various market trends, including the rise of AI, the transition from on-premise to cloud, and the increasing importance of sustainability. * **Valuation**: The report provides valuation analysis for each company, including price targets and multiples. * **Catalysts**: The report identifies potential catalysts for each company, such as product launches, regulatory decisions, and earnings reports.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 19 Dec 2024 05:45:43 ET │ 9 pages Production – According to Sxcoal, from 12th to 18th Dec, China's 100 sample mines' thermal coal output was 12,583kt, down 0.5% WoW, up 5.0% YoY, and up 6.7% YoY on the lunar calendar, of which sample mines' output in Shanxi/Shaanxi/Inner Mongolia was 3,001/3,870/5,712kt, +0.2%/-0.4%/-0.9% WoW, +1.4%/+14.5%/+1.6% YoY and flat/+15.2%/+5.2% YoY on the lunar calendar, respectively. The YTD sample mines' thermal coal output ...

Exhibit 4: New investors (scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low levels since January 2014) vs. CSI 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25 New Investors Registered CSI300 (RHS) 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Dec 18, 2024. Latest new investors registe ...

Key Points 1. **Industry and Company**: The document focuses on the robotics industry, specifically highlighting Physical Intelligence, a startup building foundational AI models for robotics. 2. **Core Views and Evidence**: - **Embodied AI**: The development of the robot 'brain' is crucial for the rise of embodied AI. Future autonomous robots will require advanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to transform human-like sensory inputs into robotic movement and manipulation. - **Physical Intelligence's Pi Zero**: Pi Zero is a general-purpose robotics model capable of controlling various robots and performing complex tasks. It outperforms existing models in terms of complexity and success rate. - **Funding and Investors**: Physical Intelligence raised $400m at a $2.0bn valuation in November 2024, with notable investors including Khosla Ventures, Lux Capital, OpenAI, Sequoia, Thrive Capital, and Jeff Bezos. - **Competitors**: The document mentions other companies working on general-purpose robotics models, such as Skild AI, Field AI, and OpenAI. 3. **Other Important Content**: - **DeepMind and Toyota Research Institute**: These companies are actively working on dexterous robots and behavior models based on diffusion policy. - **NVIDIA Project Gr00T**: This project aims to develop a general-purpose, multimodal foundation model for humanoid robots. - **Physical Intelligence's Timeline**: The company emerged from stealth in March 2024, revealed Pi Zero in October 2024, and raised $400m in November 2024. - **Technology Overview**: Pi Zero is a first-step prototype with a focus on long-horizon reasoning, autonomous self-improvement, robustness, and safety. - **Startup Timeline**: Physical Intelligence has made significant progress in a short period, showcasing its potential in the robotics industry.