ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com +44-20-7567 1823 Global Oil and Gas Global Oil & Gas Valuation Sheets 23 December 2024 josh.silverstein@ubs.com steven.fisher@ubs.com manav.gupta@ubs.com | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | Global Oil & Gas Equity Specialist Sales | | | Global Oil & Gas Equity Specialist Sales Trading | | Definitions | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

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**Industry/Company Involved**: Semiconductor industry, specifically SMIC (0981.HK) **Key Points**: * **Revenue and Margin Recovery**: SMIC's revenue and margin are expected to continue recovering, driven by a healthier inventory level and localization trend. However, the continuous capacity expansion, increasing supply of mature nodes, rising competition, and geopolitical risks remain concerns. * **Demand Outlook**: The company's demand outlook is positive, with a gradual recovery expected in the industrial and automotive segments in 2H24E, as inventory digestion completes. * **Gross Margin**: SMIC's gross margin is expected to gradually recover, impacted by the increased D&A burden due to continuous capacity expansions. * **Target Price**: Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share by 14% to HK$33.4, based on a 34x 2025E P/E multiple. The A-share target price is raised by 14% to Rmb83.9, based on a 273% premium over the H-share target price. * **Earnings Forecast**: The company's revenue forecasts are raised by around 1% each year in 2025E-29E, and gross margin is expected to increase by 0.2~0.3ppts on higher utilization rates. * **Rating**: Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on SMIC (A/H). * **Key Risks**: Better-/weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and consumer electronics, faster-/slower-than-expected end-market diversification, and restricted access to certain equipment/material supply due to SMIC's inclusion on the US BIS Entity List. **Additional Important Points**: * **Utilization Rates**: SMIC's utilization rates are expected to recover gradually, as shown in Exhibit 9. * **Inventory Days**: Inventory days for China's electronics manufacturing industry returned to 51 days in October 2024, in line with historical levels, supporting demand recovery. * **Earnings Revision Summary**: Exhibit 3 provides a summary of earnings revisions for SMIC. * **Valuation**: SMIC's stock is trading at around its historical average P/E, which is considered reasonable considering its solid long-term growth prospects and market weakness in the near term. * **M&A Rank**: SMIC has a M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability of being acquired. * **Quantum Database**: Goldman Sachs' proprietary database, Quantum, provides access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts, and ratios for in-depth analysis of SMIC and other companies. **Source**: Goldman Sachs Research, SMIC (0981.HK) Research Report

December 23, 2024 12:52 PM GMT Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were +5.0% YoY (vs. +31% YoY last week) and +5.9% WoW for the week ended December 22: Tier 1 city sales were +3.3% YoY (vs. +71% YoY last week) but -34% WoW. Tier 2 city sales were +4.5% YoY (vs. +21% YoY last week) and +25% WoW. Tier 3 city sales were +10.3% YoY (vs. +29% YoY last week) but -10.1% WoW. M Update China Property | Asia Pacific Weekly primary unit sales were +5.0% YoY and +5.9% WoW. Weekly secondary unit sales were +58% YoY ...

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 ($bn) ($bn) Non-Dealer Positioning (4Wk Moving Average) All itraxx Main Series All iTraxx XO (RS) Net Sellers of Protection Net Buyers of Protection Global Credit: What We're Watching Asia Credit Demand December 23, 2024 Global Credit: What We're Watching | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|------------ ...

demand improvement FPGA cycle troughed in mid 2024, and we think the overall market can return to growth in 2025. Although Anlogic is well positioned as a leading FPGA player in China benefiting from the localization trend, we stay EW given its sub-scale revenue and loss making status. Expect growth in 2025 to benefit from the localization trend: Four of China's top industry associations said that Chinese companies should be wary of buying U.S. chips as they are "no longer safe" and buy locally instead (lin ...

ab 23 December 2024 Global Research China Economic Comment China Weekly: Robust Dec momentum, mixed Nov growth, lower CGB yields Our UBS China Activity Tracker shows a largely robust growth momentum in December. 30-city new property sales growth moderated to 15% YoY in the first 21 days of December (vs 20% YoY in November), with tier-1 cities recording much stronger YoY growth than lower-tier cities (see Figures 3-5). In particular, 30-city property sales growth decelerated to 5% YoY in the 3rd week on a hi ...

M Update Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates based on price and duration from December 23, 2024 Germany should have the largest extension this month (0.069y) compared to other countries, close to its average December extension of 0.072y. The higher extension is mainly caused by BKO 3.1% Dec-2025 (market value €19.2 billion, weight 1.3%) falling out of the index. 1-5y index will extend by 0.047y. Exhibit 7: December euro extensions by sovereign Morgan Stanley Research 3 United States UK UKT ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | | | | | 190.00 | | | 144.50 | | 12/23 06/24 | 99.00 12/24 | | Target price: 173.00 High: 164.05 Low: 107.69 Current: 143.55 | | | Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates | | | Katharine Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001) Head of A-share Consumer Research HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited kathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.c ...

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