Summary of Cabaletta Bio FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cabaletta Bio (NasdaqGS:CABA) - **Focus**: Development of targeted curative cellular therapies for autoimmune diseases Key Industry Insights - **Clinical Progress**: Cabaletta has made significant advancements in clinical trials, having enrolled 75 patients across 75+ sites since the IND clearance for ResaCell. The company has reported transformative clinical data across five indications: myositis, systemic sclerosis, lupus, myasthenia gravis, and pemphigus vulgaris [3][4][8] - **Regulatory Alignment**: The company has achieved alignment with the FDA for its Phase III program in myositis, with all patients meeting the agreed endpoint [3][4][10][16] Core Points and Arguments - **Clinical Data**: - In myositis, all patients in the Phase I-II program met the FDA's endpoint criteria, indicating strong efficacy [3][4] - In systemic sclerosis, profound treatment responses were observed in patients off immunosuppressants [4] - Lupus patients showed remission or renal response while off medications [4] - Pemphigus vulgaris data indicated significant B cell clearance with a single infusion of ResaCell without preconditioning [6][35] - **Trial Design**: - The myositis trial features a unique composite endpoint that combines clinical improvement with the discontinuation of immunomodulatory medications [11][12] - The use of an external control group aims to enhance the rigor of the study and reduce bias [12][13] - **Safety Profile**: The safety data for ResaCell is reported to be best in class, with a focus on weight-adjusted dosing to maximize safety [5][27][41] Future Milestones - **Upcoming Enrollment**: The registration cohort for myositis is set to open for enrollment by the end of the year, with expectations for FDA alignment on systemic sclerosis and lupus programs [8][9] - **Pivotal Programs**: The company plans to prioritize myositis as the first indication for pivotal programs, with systemic sclerosis or lupus as potential second options [9] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: Cabaletta's approach to CAR-T therapies in autoimmune diseases is positioned against other CD19-directed CAR-T products, with a focus on safety as a differentiator [29][30] - **Regulatory Challenges**: The company acknowledges the complexities of regulatory approval timelines, especially in scleroderma, where one-year endpoints are common [33][34] Commercial Strategy - **Market Entry**: The company plans to enter the market through hospitals and rapidly transition to outpatient settings, aiming for broader community access [42] - **Value Proposition**: The potential to eliminate the need for existing therapies (e.g., IVIG) could position ResaCell as a cost-effective solution for patients, with annual treatment costs estimated between $200,000 to $500,000 [45] Manufacturing Considerations - **Supply Chain Management**: The company is working with CDMOs to ensure efficient manufacturing processes, aiming to minimize out-of-spec waste that can negatively impact financials [47][48] Conclusion Cabaletta Bio is positioned to make significant strides in the treatment of autoimmune diseases through innovative therapies and a strong regulatory strategy, with a focus on safety and efficacy that could redefine treatment paradigms in the industry [37][38]

Summary of NewAmsterdam Pharma Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NewAmsterdam Pharma (NasdaqGM:NAMS) - **Event**: FY Conference on November 11, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Lipid Management**: The conference highlighted significant advancements in lipid management, particularly in the context of cardiovascular disease prevention. The recent American Heart Association (AHA) meeting emphasized the importance of LDL lowering and its correlation with mortality benefits, which is expected to shift treatment guidelines towards more aggressive LDL targets [6][54]. Core Points Discussed 1. **Mortality Benefit Evidence**: New studies have shown that aggressive LDL lowering can lead to mortality benefits, particularly in broader high-risk populations, which opens up new market opportunities for NewAmsterdam's products [6][54]. 2. **Prevail Study Design**: The Prevail study is designed to track event rates similar to previous successful studies, with a focus on achieving a significant reduction in cardiovascular events. The company is confident in the study's design and its potential outcomes [20][21][12]. 3. **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape includes Merck's oral PCSK9 inhibitor, which has shown promising LDL lowering results. However, NewAmsterdam believes its product, Obsettra, offers unique benefits, including Lp(a) lowering and potential Alzheimer's disease benefits, which could differentiate it in the market [13][15][47]. 4. **Regulatory Strategy**: NewAmsterdam plans to align its NDA submission with the completion of the Prevail study to ensure that the most relevant data is available at launch. The timing of the NDA submission is contingent on event tracking and FDA feedback [41][42][43]. 5. **Future Studies**: Additional studies, including Rubin and Rembrandt, are planned to further explore the drug's benefits in specific populations, particularly those with high Lp(a) levels and diabetes [44][45]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Growth Potential**: Analysts predict a significant market growth for lipid-lowering therapies, estimating a market size of $4 billion to $5 billion for both Merck and AstraZeneca, which NewAmsterdam aims to capture with its innovative approach [15][16]. - **Patient Compliance Concerns**: The discussion highlighted the challenges of patient compliance in real-world settings compared to clinical trials, which may affect the uptake of new therapies [13][14]. - **Emerging Technologies**: The future of lipid management is expected to be transformed by new technologies and therapies, including gene editing approaches, which could significantly impact cardiovascular disease prevention [54]. Conclusion NewAmsterdam Pharma is positioned to capitalize on the evolving landscape of lipid management with its upcoming product, Obsettra. The company is focused on leveraging new evidence supporting aggressive LDL lowering, maintaining a strategic approach to regulatory submissions, and preparing for a competitive market environment. The insights from the AHA meeting and ongoing studies will play a crucial role in shaping the company's future trajectory in the healthcare sector.

UroGen Pharma FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: UroGen Pharma (NasdaqGM:URGN) - **Technology**: RTGel technology, a unique polymer combination that forms a soft gel at body temperature, facilitating drug delivery to the bladder and upper urinary tract [2][3] Core Product Insights - **Product**: Jelmyto, approved for bladder cancer treatment - **Market Opportunity**: Approximately 60,000 patients with recurrent low-grade intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) [4] - **Unmet Medical Need**: High recurrence rates among patients, with 23% experiencing five or more recurrences and 68% having two or more [4] Market Dynamics - **Patient Population**: Focus on low-grade disease, which is highly recurrent but not life-threatening [6][7] - **Surgical Failures**: Current treatments often lead to repetitive surgeries, highlighting the need for effective non-surgical options [4][6] Launch and Sales Strategy - **Sales Force Expansion**: Increased from 40 to 82 representatives to support the launch of UGN-102, with a focus on clinical nurse educators [10][11] - **Reimbursement Challenges**: Identified as the biggest barrier to adoption; efforts are in place to address this with field reimbursement teams [10][11][19] Early Launch Metrics - **Revenue Performance**: $1.8 million in Q3 and $4.5 million in October, indicating strong early adoption [14][15] - **Patient Enrollment Forms**: Early indicators of demand are on par with Jelmyto's performance after five years, suggesting a strong market interest [15][16] Future Growth Potential - **J Code Impact**: Anticipated positive effects on revenue post-J code implementation in January 2026, with expectations of increased physician confidence and reimbursement facilitation [18][19] - **Market Penetration**: Projected peak market penetration of over $1 billion, with a conservative estimate of 20% market share [22] Competitive Landscape - **First-Mover Advantage**: UroGen Pharma is positioned as a primary therapy for low-grade intermediate-risk bladder cancer, differentiating from competitors that require surgery [24][25] - **Future Products**: Competitors like J&J and CG are developing adjuvant therapies, which may follow surgical interventions, contrasting with UroGen's non-surgical approach [25][26] Pipeline Developments - **UGN-103**: A new formulation of mitomycin with improved production efficiency, expected to file for NDA in the second half of 2026 [30][31] - **UGN-104**: Successor product for Jelmyto, anticipated to follow UGN-103 by about a year [34] - **Oncolytic Virus (501)**: Currently in IND enabling studies, with potential applications beyond bladder cancer [35][36] Commercial Synergies - **Cross-Promotion**: Increased commercial efforts around UGN-102 are expected to drive growth for Jelmyto, as physicians become more familiar with both products [38] Conclusion UroGen Pharma is strategically positioned in the bladder cancer treatment market with innovative technology and a strong pipeline. The company is addressing significant unmet needs in patient care while navigating challenges related to reimbursement and market adoption. The anticipated impact of the J code and the first-mover advantage in the low-grade intermediate-risk segment are expected to drive future growth.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, consolidated recurring EBITDA was $150 million, a 104% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Operating cash consumption was approximately $62 million, with a cash position of about $1.3 billion at the end of the quarter, sufficient to cover debt maturities over the next 27 months [7][20] - Corporate leverage stood at approximately 14.7x at the end of Q3 2025, primarily due to lower EBITDA over the last twelve months [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, the utilization rate at petrochemical plants was lower due to a scheduled shutdown, with recurring EBITDA of $205 million, a 35% increase from the previous quarter [10] - The utilization rate of the green ethylene plant was 40%, down 31 percentage points from the previous quarter, impacted by lower demand from Asian markets [11] - The United States and Europe segment saw a higher utilization rate due to normalization of operations, but results remained negative due to weakened demand [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global macroeconomic scenario in 2025 was marked by moderate growth, decelerating inflation, and high interest rates, impacting industrial activity and resin processing demand [8][9] - Most international petrochemical spreads fell to historically low levels due to excess installed capacity and weakened demand [9] - In Brazil, resin sales decreased due to higher polyethylene imports and lower polypropylene demand, although this was offset by increased sales of key chemicals [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on implementing a global resilience and transformation program to generate sustainable value and mitigate cash consumption [22] - The transformation program includes initiatives to optimize naphtha-based production, increase gas base flexibility, and migrate to renewable products [22] - The company plans to expand the Rio de Janeiro plant's capacity, adding 220,000 tonnes per year of ethylene capacity, with an estimated investment of BRL 4.2 billion [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the prolonged downturn in the petrochemical industry, with expectations of a challenging environment until at least 2030 [36][38] - The company anticipates a modest recovery in the petrochemical sector towards the end of the decade, driven by structural excess supply and moderate demand growth [38] - Management emphasized the importance of resilience initiatives to mitigate the impacts of the downturn and ensure competitiveness [40] Other Important Information - The company signed an agreement related to the Alagoas geological event, with a total payment of BRL 1.2 billion, of which BRL 139 million has already been paid [18] - The company has established 79 action plans globally, with the potential to capture around $400 million in EBITDA and $500 million in cash generation for 2025 [23] - The chlor soda plant in Alagoas was hibernated to enhance the competitiveness of PVC production by importing EDC [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: When will a decision on the restructuring be made? - The company is currently completing diagnostics and discussions regarding its capital structure, with no options discarded or confirmed at this time [50][51] Question: What was the main economic driver for weak volumes this quarter? - The demand for resins is closely tied to Brazilian GDP, with a projected drop of about 4% for PE and PP in the coming months, but a 3% growth expected for PVC due to the sanitation law [53][55] Question: What is the timeline and expected impact of the Transforma Rio project? - The project will begin its engineering phase now and is expected to be completed by 2028 or 2029, potentially adding just under $200 million per year to EBITDA [58][59] Question: What is the status of the agreement in Alagoas? - The agreement involves a total payment of BRL 1.2 billion over ten years, with initial installments aligned with the company's projected financial condition [63][64] Question: How does the company view the impact of movements in China on the market? - China is expected to increase its ethylene and propylene production significantly, which will impact global supply and demand dynamics, leading to a prolonged downward cycle [78][79]

Summary of Glaukos Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Glaukos Corporation - **Industry**: Medical Technology (MedTech), specifically focused on ophthalmology and glaucoma treatment Key Financial Highlights - **Q3 Results**: Achieved record glaucoma revenues and total revenues, reporting $40 million from iDose for the quarter, a sequential increase from Q2 [7][40] - **Guidance Update**: Raised annual revenue guidance from $490 million to $495 million, indicating strong business growth as the year closes [7][40] Product Insights iDose - **Market Potential**: iDose is positioned to expand the total addressable market (TAM) for glaucoma treatments, with an estimated 22 million eyes affected by ocular hypertension and glaucoma, of which 12 million are currently treated [44][45] - **Clinical Evidence**: iDose has undergone two phase 3 trials with over 1,150 patients, demonstrating efficacy and safety [20][21] - **Future Growth**: Expected to exit 2025 with a run rate of approximately $180 million, with projections for 2026 around $220 million [42][40] EPIAXA - **New Approval**: EPIAXA is a new treatment for keratoconus that does not require corneal debridement, improving patient experience [115][121] - **Market Opportunity**: Currently, only 10,000 patients are treated annually, but there is potential for 50,000 patients who are not receiving treatment [117][119] - **Investment Focus**: Significant investments will be made to educate and identify patients, with a focus on establishing market access and reimbursement [123][129] Market Dynamics - **Interventional Glaucoma (IG)**: The company is focused on promoting interventional glaucoma treatments, which aim to address noncompliance with topical medications [49][78] - **Surgeon Adoption**: The adoption of IG practices is still in early stages, with a need for education and support for surgeons to implement these treatments effectively [186][190] Regulatory and Reimbursement Landscape - **MACs and J Code**: All seven Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) are now paying for the J code, with ongoing efforts to establish pro fees for remaining MACs [93][100] - **Future Reimbursement**: The establishment of a J code is expected to enhance commercial plan adoption and streamline reimbursement processes [135][139] R&D and Innovation - **Pipeline Development**: Glaukos has 14 publicly disclosed pipeline programs, including next-generation iDose and iLution for blepharitis [167][169] - **Focus on Innovation**: The company aims to build a world-class ophthalmology company through continuous innovation and product development [166][167] International Market Outlook - **Growth Drivers**: The approval of iStent infinite in Europe is expected to drive growth, with strong demand observed at recent conferences [193][195] - **Market Access Challenges**: Each international market presents unique challenges, but there is significant room for growth in unlocking potential [203][205] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: Glaukos is committed to addressing unmet patient needs through innovative products and expanding market access, with a clear path towards profitability and growth in the interventional glaucoma market [209][210]

This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that reflect, when made, our current views with respect to current events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and factors relating to our operations and business environment, which may cause our actual results to be materially different from any future results, expressed or implied, by such forward-looking statements. ...

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS: VRTX) - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically focusing on cystic fibrosis (CF) and other therapeutic areas Key Points on Cystic Fibrosis Business - **Trikafta Growth**: Trikafta continues to show strong growth, with the launch of Alyftrek being a significant addition to the CF portfolio [3][4] - **Alyftrek Launch**: Alyftrek, approved in December 2024, is performing well in its first year, with a focus on its ability to treat a broader range of CF mutations compared to Trikafta [4][11] - **Patient Demographics**: The initial uptake of Alyftrek has been highest among new patients, with approximately 400-500 patients in the U.S. benefiting from its treatment of 31 additional mutations [7][11] - **Patient Experience**: Patients previously on Trikafta have a strong emotional attachment to the drug, which may slow the switch to Alyftrek despite its advantages [8][10] - **Monitoring Requirements**: New liver monitoring requirements for both Trikafta and Alyftrek have been implemented, affecting patient management [10][11] - **International Expansion**: Vertex has secured reimbursement for Alyftrek in several European countries, with a larger patient population available outside the U.S. [11][13] Pipeline and Future Opportunities - **NextGen 3.0 Molecule**: Vertex is developing VX-828, targeting the remaining 5% of CF patients who do not benefit from current CFTR modulators [15][16] - **Collaboration with Moderna**: The VX-522 program, aimed at patients who do not produce CFTR protein, is back on track after a clinical hold [20][21] - **IgA Nephropathy**: Vertex is advancing its asset Tovy (povetacicept) for IgA nephropathy, with expectations for data readouts in 2026 and potential accelerated approval [25][27] - **Dual Inhibitor Potential**: Tovy is positioned as a best-in-class treatment due to its dual APRIL/BAFF inhibition mechanism, which is expected to provide superior efficacy [30][34] Pain Management Initiatives - **Suzetrigine Launch**: The launch of Suzetrigine is progressing well, with over 300,000 prescriptions written as of mid-October 2025 [45][46] - **Reimbursement Strategy**: Vertex is actively working on securing reimbursement across various payers, with 170 million lives already covered [46][47] - **Chronic Pain Studies**: Vertex is conducting two Phase III studies for diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), with results expected in late 2026 or early 2027 [50][56] Type 1 Diabetes Program - **Allogeneic Stem Cell Program**: Vertex has completed enrollment in a pivotal trial for its allogeneic stem cell-derived program, showing promising results with insulin-free patients [61][62] Conclusion - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is positioned for significant growth with its expanding CF portfolio, promising pipeline assets in autoimmune diseases, and innovative pain management solutions. The company is focused on securing reimbursement and enhancing patient access to its therapies while navigating the complexities of clinical trials and regulatory approvals.

Centene Corporation Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) - **Date of Conference**: November 11, 2025 - **Speakers**: Sarah London (CEO), Drew Asher (CFO) Key Points Industry Context - Centene operates primarily in the healthcare services sector, focusing on government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Financial Performance - Q3 results exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the full-year outlook to at least $2 per share [4][7] - The company reported a revenue stream of approximately $5 billion from the Florida Medicaid contract, which is expected to decrease to between $4.5 billion and $9.3 billion next year due to contract changes [8][9] Medicaid Updates - Centene was not awarded the CMS Florida contract after six years, impacting their revenue but allowing for a focus on sustainable margins [5][8] - The company is prioritizing a seamless transition for affected members and is not planning to protest the contract decision [5] - Medicaid margins are expected to remain consistent next year, contrasting with some peers who anticipate declines [15][36] Medicare and Marketplace Insights - Open enrollment for Medicare is ongoing, with a focus on margin improvement rather than membership growth [49][54] - The company is optimistic about its position in the Medicare Advantage market, aiming for break-even by 2027 [49] - There is an uptick in call volume related to Marketplace inquiries, indicating member confusion over premium changes [20][22] Legislative and Subsidy Discussions - Ongoing discussions in Congress regarding enhanced subsidies could significantly impact members and the overall market [24][25] - Centene has prepared for various scenarios regarding subsidy extensions and has built pricing for 2026 accordingly [26][30] Operational Strategies - The company is focused on improving margins through various levers, including rate negotiations and utilization management [15][17] - Centene is actively engaged with state governments to optimize Medicaid programs and address issues like fraud and waste [41][42] Future Outlook - The company sees potential for growth in Medicaid and is exploring disruptive opportunities in employer-sponsored insurance [59] - Centene aims to maintain a flexible capital structure, targeting a debt-to-capital ratio below 40% to seize future opportunities [58] Behavioral Health and Cost Management - Behavioral health accounts for approximately 20% of Medicaid spending, and states are increasingly focused on managing these costs [42][43] - Centene is working with states to implement effective policy changes to control costs while maintaining care quality [41] Conclusion - Centene is navigating a complex healthcare landscape with a focus on sustainable growth, margin improvement, and proactive engagement with legislative changes and state partnerships [59][60]

Summary of CSX Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CSX Corporation - **Industry**: U.S. Rail Transportation Key Points Management Changes and Strategic Focus - CSX has undergone significant management changes, with a focus on operational efficiency and profitability under new leadership [1][2][5] - The new CEO, Steve, emphasizes prioritizing key objectives and enhancing shareholder value, regardless of industry changes [3][4][6] Infrastructure Projects - CSX is nearing completion of major infrastructure projects, including the Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge Subdivision, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [9][10][12] - Anticipated savings of approximately $100 million in costs as projects conclude, with a reduction of $10 million per month in costs previously incurred [10][11] Service Improvements - CSX has achieved significant service improvements, positioning itself for growth as market conditions stabilize [15][18] - The company is prepared to capitalize on cyclical growth in key segments, with confidence in its operational stability and leadership [19][21] Pricing Strategy - CSX aims to maintain pricing discipline, focusing on profitable business rather than merely increasing volume [20][21] - The company is optimistic about converting truck freight to rail, especially as trucking market conditions improve [21][22] Partnerships and Collaborations - CSX is actively pursuing partnerships with other Class I railroads to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [23][25][26] - Recent collaborations have led to new intermodal opportunities, particularly in the Southeast, and improved connections with other rail networks [26][30] Competitive Environment - Increased competition in the eastern U.S. rail market, particularly in domestic intermodal, is acknowledged, with CSX focusing on maintaining service quality to retain customers [28][29] - The company is prepared to compete effectively against potential mergers in the industry, leveraging its unique service offerings [33][54] Capital Investment and Budgeting - CSX is focusing on capital discipline and efficiency in capital expenditures, particularly in light of recent large projects coming to completion [38][42] - Future investments will be evaluated based on growth opportunities, with no immediate large-scale projects anticipated [43] Technology and Automation - CSX is undergoing a digital transformation to improve data accessibility and operational efficiency, with a focus on automation in various processes [45][46] - The company recognizes the potential for technology to enhance safety and reduce costs, although it is still in the early stages of implementation [47][48] Conclusion - CSX is positioning itself for future growth through strategic management changes, infrastructure investments, service improvements, and enhanced partnerships, while maintaining a focus on operational efficiency and shareholder value [34][35][38]

Gentherm Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Gentherm - **Industry**: Automotive and Medical Technology - **Core Competency**: Innovative thermal management and pneumatic solutions, primarily for automotive and medical applications [2][64] Key Points and Arguments Market Position and Growth Strategy - Gentherm is the global market leader in thermal management and pneumatic solutions, with a focus on expanding into non-automotive markets [2][4] - The company aims to become a $3 billion entity with less than 70% exposure to the light vehicle market, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification [5][58] - Gentherm has secured over $2 billion in awards in the light vehicle market and has built a funnel of over $300 million in lifetime revenue from adjacent markets [4][12] Adjacent Market Opportunities - Gentherm is targeting adjacent markets such as power sports, commercial vehicles, and motion furniture, with the latter expected to generate $2 million to $3 million annually [4][20] - The company has developed standard kits for the furniture industry, allowing for scalability without the need for volume guarantees [23][24] Operational Excellence - The company is focused on operational excellence, standardizing key performance indicators, and maximizing asset utilization to drive down capital expenditures [5][51] - Gentherm has reduced capital expenditures from 5% of revenue to approximately 3-3.5%, indicating improved operational efficiency [53] Medical Market Expansion - Gentherm is intent on growing its medical business, which has double the margins of its automotive segment, by leveraging existing automotive technology [21][30] - The medical business is projected to grow from $50 million to potentially over $100 million, with a gross margin of around 50% [35][37] Innovation and Product Development - The company has introduced innovative products like the Pulsea system for automotive seating, which has been adopted by multiple OEMs [45] - Gentherm is focused on developing new products for the medical sector that address current surgical challenges, with plans for FDA compliance announcements by year-end [33][34] M&A Strategy - Gentherm is open to strategic acquisitions that complement its core competencies and provide access to new markets, while maintaining flexibility in capital allocation [39][40] - The company is currently rebuilding its M&A funnel and is optimistic about finding attractive assets that align with its growth strategy [41] Financial Outlook - The company expects to achieve EBITDA margins above 15% and aims for continuous margin expansion through operational improvements and new program implementations [54][58] - Gentherm anticipates that the overall industry production volumes will decline by about 2% in 2026, but it expects to outgrow the market due to awarded activities and strategic initiatives [12][13] Additional Important Insights - The company has faced supply chain disruptions but has managed to maintain revenue within guidance ranges [8][9] - Gentherm's products are becoming standard in the automotive industry, particularly in climate-controlled seating, driven by consumer expectations [14][15] - The company views AI as a tool to enhance employee productivity rather than replace jobs, particularly in medical product development [56] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Gentherm's conference call, highlighting its strategic direction, market opportunities, operational improvements, and financial outlook.