更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Logistics Cut express industry profit on competition; Cautious on freight forwarders; YTO & Sinotrans-H down to Sell We see intensifying express delivery competition this year as industry leader ZTO pivots back to a market share gain strategy and downgrade YTO to Sell on competition/downside risk to profit per parcel (converging with Tier 2 players). Meanwhile, we downgrade Sinotrans-H to Sell given export-driven businesses contribute 75+% of EBIT where we expect lower fre ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 16, 2025 11:00 PM GMT Global Steel M Global Idea Global Implications of US Universal 25% Tariff on Steel Chris Jiang Equity Analyst Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593 The latest move by the US to impose 25% tariffs on all steel imports without exception reinforces our view of an increasingly regionalized steel trade. In this report we assess global implications of this development and highlight those potentially advantaged and challenged by this move. Morgan S ...

February 14, 2025 04:11 PM GMT EUROPEAN EQUITY STRATEGY European Equity Strategy Strategy Data Gallery If you have found our European Equity Strategy research useful over the last year we would greatly appreciate your support in this year's Extel survey which you can access here. We are eligible for votes in the Developed Europe Equity Market Strategy category. Thank you! M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Europe Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ European Equity Strategy Chelsea Tabe EQUITY STR ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 February 2025 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited China banks Jan credit growth and deposits mix beat expectations January credit data beat expectations and support our positive view on China banks. New TSF and loan beat both JPM and Bloomberg consensus expectations. Although banks are not expecting an acceleration in loan growth in 2025 (link), given the rollout of local government bond swap program, gross new loans are like ...

Citi Research 13 February 2024 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly US Equity/Thematic Strategy Drew Pettit AC Director, US Equity Strategy drew.pettit@citi.com +1 415-951-1621 See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of inter ...

14 February 2025 | 7:21AM HKT The 720: TSMC, Asia Energy, China Property, China Lithium, LandMark/VPEC, Honda, PPIH, ASE Tech, Pony AI, Yili In Focus | TSMC TSMC - Consideration of media reports of potential strategic developments involving Intel and US tariff proposals - Buy. Media have reported that TSMC and Intel may be forming a joint venture to enhance U.S. chip manufacturing capabilities. TSMC also held its first-ever board meeting held in the US on February 11-12 (US time), which took place at its Ar ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker (February 13, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically oil demand and inventory trends. Key Points 1. **Global Oil Demand Growth** - Global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (mbd), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4 mbd. However, this figure is 500 thousand barrels per day (kbd) below monthly projections [4][4][4]. 2. **Heating Fuel Demand** - Colder weather in the U.S. is expected to increase heating fuel use, with February projected to average 824 heating degree days (HDD), exceeding the 10-year average of 778 HDD. This could further narrow the gap between actual and projected demand [4][4][4]. 3. **Gas-to-Oil Switching in Europe** - Rising natural gas prices in Europe may lead to a shift from gas to oil, potentially increasing European oil demand by 100-150 kbd. However, current pricing makes this switch unlikely, as high and low sulfur fuel oils are priced 22-30% higher than gas [4][4][4]. 4. **Impact of Sanctions on Oil Stocks** - Following new sanctions imposed by President Biden, global oil stocks have diverged from projections. Notably, there has been a significant drop in global commercial crude oil stocks as China and India halt acceptance of sanctioned tankers [4][4][4]. 5. **OECD Oil Stocks** - Contrary to global trends, visible OECD commercial oil stocks recorded a net build of 4 million barrels in the first week of February, driven by increases in both crude and oil product stocks [4][4][4]. 6. **Regional Oil Consumption Statistics** - Recent statistics show varied oil consumption across regions, with India reporting a year-over-year increase of 170 kbd in January, while Japan reported a decrease of 243 kbd in December [4][4][4]. 7. **Future Projections** - The report indicates that the gap between actual and projected oil demand is expected to narrow as demand for mobility and heating fuels picks up, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [4][4][4]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the logistical challenges that may hinder a significant switch from gas to oil in Europe despite the potential demand increase. - The classification of idle sanctioned vessels as floating storage is a developing situation that could impact future inventory reporting [4][4][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.

Elif Korkmaz - Specialist Sales - US Healthcare AC elif.korkmaz@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N 14 February 2025 MRNA: 4Q revs largely in line with what they pre-announced at our conference. 4Q R&D expenses $1.12bn vs cons $1.17bn. Reiterated 2025 topline guidance of $1.5-$2.5bn, most all of it in 2H25 due to seasonality. Looks like noro is on clinical hold following a single case of GBS. Call 8am ET Key Highlights Large Cap BioTech US Large Cap Biotech ...

Chinese EV: The impact of DeepSeek on Intelligent Driving Eunice Lee, CFA +852 2918 5737 eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu +852 2166 4805 mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong +852 2123 2637 frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com In the past week, several OEMs — including BYD, Geely, Great Wall, SAIC IM, and Dongfeng Nissan, etc. — have announced that they are integrating DeepSeek into their intelligent driving systems. We share some thoughts on the benefits and limitations associated with this development. 14 Februa ...

Pop Mart (9992 HK) Initiate at Buy: The start of an even bigger growth story A strong comeback. Pop Mart's share price soared 4.5x in 2024 on strong earnings beats (vs HSI up 22% over the same period) returning to its peak level in 2021. If the stock was overhyped in 2021, the current share price is on a firmer footing – fivefold growth in profit and revenue in 2024e vs 2020. While the broader industry narrative remains the same – cute consumer goods (collectable pop toys) that appeal to young consumers are ...