Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 19,323, having opened at 18,180 yuan/kg, and is reported at 19,538 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.36% increase, with a high of 19,700 yuan/kg and a low of 18,105 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The U.S. government has significantly escalated its involvement in Venezuela's political and economic transition following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio appointed to oversee the process [1] - The U.S. is reportedly receiving "comprehensive, thorough, and unconditional" cooperation from the interim government led by Maduro's former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, despite her public condemnation of Maduro's arrest [1] Group 2 - The United Nations has expressed concern over actions that violate international law, particularly regarding President Trump's comments about expanding military action to Colombia and Mexico, as well as his remarks about Greenland [2] - The silver TD price has recovered part of last week's decline, continuing to rise over 7%, with strong bullish momentum indicated by the MACD histogram and the RSI entering the overbought zone, suggesting further upward potential [3] - Key support levels for silver TD are noted at 17,500-18,000, while resistance levels are identified at 19,500-20,000 [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals saw a collective rise, with the main contract for zinc futures reported at 24,325.00 CNY/ton, marking a significant increase of 2.40% [1] - The market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts has been muted, while the unexpected contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar and boosting metal prices [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - From a global perspective, the cyclical increase in zinc supply is gradually materializing, but the transmission of increased production from mines to smelting has been delayed due to reductions in overseas smelting operations [2] - Despite an increase in zinc mining over the past year, global smelting capacity remains relatively excessive compared to mining capacity, and this situation of increased refined zinc production and low processing fees is expected to persist until 2026 [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - The end-of-year consumption season shows clear signs of a slowdown; however, due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year, there remains a rigid demand for purchases [2] - The recovery of profits for overseas smelting companies is leading to a gradual resumption of production, coupled with domestic refined zinc exports, which has alleviated the tight supply-demand situation overseas [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) have significantly decreased in January, and domestic smelters are undergoing maintenance, resulting in weaker supply-side pressure [2] - As downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, along with bullish expectations for the first quarter of 2026, there is an anticipated influx of long positions in the market, driving prices higher [2] - The current spot market pricing is somewhat chaotic, with downstream buyers showing insufficient willingness to purchase at high prices, and short-term zinc futures are expected to consolidate around the 23,800 CNY level [2] - Technically, zinc futures remain in a rebound pattern, with a solid bottom and resistance levels between 24,000 and 24,200 CNY/ton [2]

多名美国国会官员4日批评美政府未向国会就对委军事行动进行说明，违反美国法律。美国国会参议院 民主党领袖查克.舒默4日表示，美国政府未经国会授权就采取军事行动，完全违反了法律。参议院拨款 委员会国防小组委员会高级委员克里斯.孔斯4日指出，美国政府并未向委员会说明行动计划，且对后续 事项"毫无明确规划"。 【机构观点】 贵金属市场呈现震荡偏强格局，但持续上行动能有限，短期多空因素交织下难现单边趋势。一方面，地 缘政治风险持续为贵金属提供支撑。委内瑞拉局势近期再度紧张，美国对部分产油国及主要贸易伙伴的 制裁威胁与外交施压不断，加剧了全球政治经济环境的不确定性，促使部分避险资金流入黄金等传统安 全资产。然而，上行空间亦受到明显制约。当前美元指数表现强劲，主要得益于美国与非美经济体货币 政策周期的差异，美联储维持相对鹰派的立场令美元资产吸引力上升。强势美元通常对以美元计价的贵 金属价格构成直接压力，这在一定程度上抵消了避险需求带来的提振效果。综合来看，短期内地缘政治 紧张情绪对价格的正面影响占据主导，贵金属走势或维持偏强震荡。但美元走强的压制效应不容忽视， 市场缺乏明确的趋势性驱动因素，预计将维持高位盘整格局，上行与下 ...

黄金上涨的关键驱动之一，是其在全球主权储备中的地位不断提升。随着美元在各国储备中的占比萎缩 至略高于40%，黄金作为替代性储备资产的吸引力显著增强。这一趋势反映了市场对美元长期稳定性的 担忧，以及对多元化储备结构的追求。 Reynolds制作的上表采用了一种交叉参考的计算方法，结合了国际货币基金组织(IMF)关于储备货币构 成的统计数据，以及各国实物黄金储备量与现货价格信息。这种计算方式能够更直观地反映黄金在全球 储备体系中的实际权重变化，揭示其作为战略资产的地位正在稳步上升。 整体来看，美元公信力的下降与黄金地位的上升形成鲜明对比，这不仅影响外汇市场和贵金属价格，也 可能在未来重塑全球金融格局。随着地缘政治风险和经济不确定性持续存在，黄金作为"终极货币"的角 色或将进一步巩固。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 地缘政治局势一旦紧张，避险资产尤其是黄金往往会借势冲高，但这种热度通常难以持久。除非局势持 续恶化、冲突升级，避险情绪才能延续;一旦风波平息，金价往往迅速回落，甚至出现"过山车"式行情 ——涨得猛，跌得也狠。 摘要今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1003元/克附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4469.17 per ounce, up 0.47%, with a high of $4469.49 and a low of $4426.09, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela has significantly impacted the geopolitical landscape in Latin America, leading to increased uncertainty in energy supply and prompting global investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Analysts predict that gold will remain a key asset for portfolio hedging, with an expected average price of $4538 per ounce for the year, especially during periods of monetary easing and inflation exceeding 2% [2] Group 2 - The gold market experienced a strong upward movement, opening at $4350.7, dipping to a low of $4344.8, and then rising to a high of $4455.6, closing at $4448.9, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Market participants are advised to adjust their positions with specific stop-loss levels and targets, indicating a strategic approach to trading in the current volatile environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Copper futures prices continue to rise, with the main contract reaching a new high of 104,820.00 CNY per ton, driven by supply concerns due to labor strikes and declining inventories [1] Group 1: Supply Concerns - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in northern Chile has heightened fears of copper shortages, with the mine expected to produce only 29,000 to 32,000 tons of copper this year, a small fraction of the global forecast of 24 million tons [2] - UBS analysts predict a copper deficit of 300,000 to 400,000 tons by 2026, increasing to 500,000 tons by 2027 [2] - LME registered copper inventories have dropped to 142,550 tons, the lowest since November 18 of the previous year, further supporting price increases [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures indicates that the strike at the Mantoverde mine exacerbates supply shortage concerns, with global copper concentrate supply growth expected to be below 1.5% by 2026 [4] - Yi De Futures notes that the recent strike in Chile has intensified worries about supply fragility, with domestic demand in the U.S. being less than 10% of global demand while U.S. inventories exceed 50% [4] - The combination of supply disruptions and increasing demand from sectors like green energy and computing is expected to maintain high copper prices in the short term [4]

1月6日盘中，钯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至476.50元。截止发稿，钯主力合约报 474.25元，涨幅5.68%。 钯期货主力涨超5%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 钯期货不建议重仓持有 天风期货 钯区间思路为主 钯金供应在中期仍然短缺，库存低于多年低位，缓冲能力较弱。另外，俄罗斯占全球矿产供应40%以 上，地缘政治或贸易风险(如美国232调查)等仍将存在。除此之外，钯金ETF持仓量虽然从量级上较铂金 ETF仍有较大差距，但在今年以来被持续增持，显示投资者情绪回暖，随着国内铂钯期货上市，投资热 情有望扩大。低库存+高供应集中度+潜在投资流入，使得钯金成为高波动性博弈产品。若关税落地或 供应链中断，价格短期反弹幅度可能较大，但缺乏长期基本面支撑，不建议重仓持有。 天风期货：钯区间思路为主 节后反弹的具体原因分析为，前期钯金经历高位掣肘后的技术性反弹，以及假期期间外盘情绪回温与多 头资金博弈政策窗口期的共同结果。近期地缘政治风险溢价有所提升，市场风险偏好传导至贵金属定 价，支撑短期钯金期货价格。然而，当前市场的核心特征是高波动与高不确定性。在钯金市场缺乏持续 性去 ...

Group 1 - The UN Security Council held an emergency public meeting regarding the US military action against Venezuela, with representatives from Russia, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, and Cuba condemning the action [2] - Most participating countries emphasized the necessity for the international community to adhere to international law, including the UN Charter [2] - UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed deep concern over the US action, stating it failed to respect international law and the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state [2] Group 2 - The overall direction for gold remains bullish, with key resistance levels identified at 4500-4520, and a strong breakout could lead to targets around 4600 [2] - A slight pullback was observed in early trading, viewed as a technical correction following an initial surge, indicating a consolidation phase [2] - Support levels are noted at 4430-4420, with a breakdown potentially leading to high-level fluctuations, while attention is also on the 4400-4380 range for support [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded strongly, trading around $4467.97 per ounce, supported by stability above $4400 and trading above the 50-day moving average, indicating a dominant short-term upward trend [1] Economic Data - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI remains at 51.8, indicating continued expansion, while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2 in November, signaling ongoing contraction in business activity [1] - These economic indicators have not significantly impacted dovish expectations, allowing the dollar to retreat from a near four-week high, which is favorable for non-yielding gold [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs in March and potentially cut rates again by the end of the year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks include U.S. military actions in Venezuela, political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, unrest in Iran, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices faced resistance and a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4230, with further support at the 30-week moving average around $4000 [2] - Despite the potential for a pullback, the upward trend remains intact, with the price maintaining above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook [2] - Daily charts show a breakout above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the congestion area of $4425-$4450, which could be a key trigger for bullish momentum [2] - The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating improved momentum, while the RSI is at 68, suggesting strong upward momentum, with a breakthrough above 70 reinforcing bullish arguments [2] - The 100-hour SMA at $4373.28 is expected to provide dynamic support, indicating a positive short-term bias [2]

2025年12月29日，河北金融监管局发布批复称，《泰康人寿保险有限责任公司河北分公司关于泰康人寿 保险有限责任公司河北石家庄第二营销服务部变更营业场所的请示》(泰康人寿冀发〔2025〕203号)及 相关材料收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 一、同意泰康人寿保险有限责任公司河北石家庄第二营销服务部将营业场所变更为：河北省石家庄市中 山东路303号云瑧金陵世贸广场酒店14楼1402。 二、泰康人寿保险有限责任公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 ...