Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]