Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the nickel price is expected to rise due to increased sensitivity to disruptions in the nickel ore market, following extreme valuation compression in nickel stainless steel [2] - The market is currently in a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mode, with strong price support from upstream steel mills and agents, leading to improved transactions in the 304 stainless steel segment [3] - Nickel inventory has increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, while nickel iron inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 2 - The main institutions, Dongwu Futures and Guotou Anxin Futures, both maintain a bullish outlook on nickel prices, suggesting that prices are likely to continue rising in the near term [2][3] - The approval process for nickel mines in Indonesia may result in higher-than-expected final approval volumes, which could impact market expectations [2] - The reintroduction of export license management for stainless steel products is accelerating the reduction of social inventory, further supporting price increases [3]

Core Insights - Gold prices have risen to $4,450 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - The overall demand for precious metals remains strong, with silver prices also increasing [1] - Platinum is testing resistance levels between $2,245 and $2,265, indicating active market performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela, which is influencing the demand for precious metals [1][3] - The dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2] - Investors anticipate at least two interest rate cuts this year, which could enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - If gold can maintain levels above $4,450, it may target the next resistance level at $4,540 to $4,550 [3] - Silver has gained strong upward momentum, with a potential breakout above the resistance zone of $77.50 to $78.00, which could lead to further gains towards $83.50 to $84.00 [3] - Platinum's current testing of the $2,245 to $2,265 resistance level could lead to further upward movement towards $2,510 to $2,530 if successful [3]

分析人士认为，白银价格走高的核心因素是需求结构发生根本性重塑，工业需求成为绝对的主导力量， 这意味着白银价格的波动与全球制造业活动、能源转型进程的关联性等，远超过与货币政策的关联性， 这也是2025年白银期价独立于黄金走出强势上涨格局的原因。 今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于78.60一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报78.98美元/盎司，上涨3.15%，最高触及79.34美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 2026年开年，地缘风险"热度陡增"，贵金属避险价值再现。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普罢免马杜罗为市场 增添了新的地缘政治风险。特朗普表示，如果委内瑞拉临时总统德尔西.罗德里格斯不满足他们的要 求，华盛顿可能会进行第二次军事攻击，依据《卫报》的报导。马杜罗周一对美国在一起毒品恐怖主义 案件中对他的指控表示不认罪，开启了一场具有重大地缘政治影响的非凡法律斗争。 与此同时，白银工业需求连续五年超过供给，库存则降至十年低位，且增产困难，导致供需矛盾激化。 随着全球能源转型加速，光伏、新能源汽车、AI数据中心等领域 ...

今日周二(1月6日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于78.60一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报79.01美元/盎司，上涨3.19%，最高触及79.34美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向 看涨走势。 斯皮瓦克补充称："美国-委内瑞拉事件马杜罗凸显了更广泛意义上的去全球化趋势。"在低利率环境以及地缘政治或经济 不确定性时期，不产生收益的资产通常表现较好。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月累计降息25个 基点的概率为43.2%，维持利率不变的概率为49.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.2%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 白银昨日收长阳柱，升破5日均线，日线RSI仍位于高位，4小时一度逼近颈线压力78，短线趋势再度转多，76附近企稳 可继续进多。 白银阻力最小的路径是上行。下一个关键阻力位是12月30日的高点78.06美元，随后是79.00美元和80.00美元。另一方 面，如果银价跌破75.00美元，下一水平将是1月2日高位74.55美元的支撑位，之后是74.00美元/盎 ...

在美国打击委内瑞拉并抓获马杜罗两天后，华盛顿对后续事宜的规划仍有很多不明之处。白宫辩称，驱 逐马杜罗是针对毒枭的执法行动，而非政权更迭行动或战争——这一框架一直被用来解释其迄今为止的 有限步骤。 但特朗普对戏剧性行动和精准打击的偏好，可能在委内瑞拉这个经济崩溃、拥有3000万人口的国家面临 终极考验，任何失误都可能导致暴力和其他不稳定。 今日周二(1月6日)欧盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于77.86一线上方，今日开盘于76.55美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报78.45美元/盎司，上涨2.54%，最高触及79.29美元/盎司，最低下探75.70美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 特朗普进一步警告，如果哥伦比亚和墨西哥不减少向美国走私毒品的流动，也可能面临军事行动。这些 事态发展引发了对拉丁美洲地区不稳定的担忧。 其中，德国Heraeus Metals贵金属交易员Alexander Zumpfe称："委内瑞拉的局势显然重新激活了避险需 求。" 点位上，下方37.8的多和38.8的50.75的多和52.7的多减仓后止损跟进在68，今日74.7多止损74.3目标看 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The sugar industry in Bihar, India, is set to expand with plans to increase sugarcane cultivation by 300,000 hectares, which may lead to the reopening of closed sugar mills and the establishment of new ones [1]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Pricing - As of the end of December 2025, Guangdong's sugar production reached 86,600 tons, down from 116,300 tons in the same period last year, with a sugar extraction rate of 8.72%, compared to 9.397% the previous year [1]. - The current prices for sugar in Guangdong are 5,310 CNY/ton for sulfured sugar and 5,550 CNY/ton for carbonated sugar, with a recent increase of 10 CNY/ton [1]. - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil is significantly lower than local prices, with in-quota sugar costing 4,049 CNY/ton and out-of-quota sugar at 5,129 CNY/ton, indicating a price difference of 1,301 CNY/ton and 221 CNY/ton, respectively, compared to Guangxi sugar prices [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply - The overall sugar market is characterized by an increase in supply both globally and domestically, with moderate and weak consumer demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance [2]. - Domestic sugar import tariff quotas and industry regulation policies provide a solid policy support base, while the cost of imported sugar serves as an effective price anchor for futures [2]. - The expectation of global sugar surplus may intensify, potentially impacting domestic sugar mill production costs [2]. Group 3: Short-term Market Trends - In the raw sugar market, Thailand's production is gradually increasing, but there are no new driving factors in the short term, leading to slight price rebounds influenced by other commodities [3]. - Following the New Year, there has been an increase in inquiries, and a round of replenishment purchases is expected before the Spring Festival, suggesting a temporary market balance [3]. - Despite short-term stability, medium-term pressures remain, with attention on production and sales data from major producing provinces in December [3].

Group 1 - The price of silver is currently trading above 17.67, with an opening price of 17.73 and a current price of 17.74, reflecting a 2.40% increase. The highest price reached is 17.80, while the lowest is 16.98, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver trading [1] - The Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that any military attack by the U.S. on Greenland would signify the end of the NATO alliance, emphasizing the seriousness of U.S. President Trump's interest in Greenland [1] - The potential military action in Greenland is critical for Europe and NATO, as it could undermine the collective defense principle that underpins the alliance, which views an attack on one member as an attack on all [2] Group 2 - The silver market shows a strong rebound after an initial decline, with significant upward movement indicating potential for further increases. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting continued upward momentum, while the DMI indicates a strong bullish sentiment [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified between 16.50 and 17.40, while resistance levels are noted between 17.70 and 18.50 [3]

COMEX近月合约再现多头交割拿货、黄金情绪高涨，白银大涨，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺 口连续5年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易也是2026年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不 变。关注海外市场调仓风险。 基本面来看，目前白银供应端增长显著乏力，而需求端有明显增量，工业需求已成为核心的增长引擎， 今年全球光伏产业用银量显著提升，同时，新能源汽车和AI数据中心的发展也将带来大量需求，据世 界白银协会发布的最新数据，2025年全球白银市场的供需缺口预计超1亿盎司，白银市场连续第五年处 于供应短缺状态。此外，全球白银ETF持仓不断增加，可流通库存偏紧的格局为银价提供了弹性支撑。 因此，在战略资源、金融属性和工业属性的三重驱动下，白银中长期走势预计保持强劲。操作上建议 AG2604剩余多单中期持有。 宁证期货：短期白银受黄金避险影响，再度反弹 美国经济下行压力增加，市场普遍预期1月美联储不会降息，白银利空因素增加。短期白银受黄金避险 影响，再度反弹，但短期上方空间有限。 中辉期货：白银长期做多逻辑不变 1月6日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至19714.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合约 报 ...

多晶硅期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 1月6日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至60200.0元。截止发稿，多晶硅主力 合约报59555.0元，涨幅2.01%。 供给端，多晶硅周度产量减少，1月份行业持续推进"减产控销"策略，预估产量可能为10.5-11万吨。下 游需求方面，硅片、电池片价格低位反弹，企业库存累积，生产仍然亏损，企业开工率下调；终端组件 价格维持在低位，国内外需求都处在低迷状态，排产量跌至30GW左右。多晶硅基本面较差，企业将现 货报价调整至6.5万元/吨，今天有少量订单成交价达到了6万以上。多晶硅基本面供需两弱，现货挺价 意愿浓厚，但期货盘面近期交易所监管强度加大，投机热度下降，多晶硅价格短期可能维持高位震荡状 态。 广州期货：多晶硅区间震荡对待 节后上游挺价意愿强烈，头部企业报价坚决，硅料成交重心同步上移。供应端减产控销策略持续推进， 行业自律与收储平台的托底预期形成支撑，叠加下游硅片环节价格回暖带动产业链传导预期，共同推动 硅料价格中枢上移。但终端需求全面复苏尚需时日，下游对高价硅料的承接仍显谨慎，库存端压力尚未 完全缓解，多空 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals, particularly casting aluminum alloy, is experiencing a collective upward trend, with the main contract opening at 22,490.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 23,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.14% [1] - The market for casting aluminum alloy is showing a strong upward trend, supported by high aluminum prices and the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026, which has led to a slight increase in scrap aluminum prices, thereby strengthening the cost support for aluminum alloy [2] - Environmental policies and tight raw material supply are putting pressure on production costs, potentially leading to a reduction in output, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, resulting in a subdued market for spot transactions [2] Group 2 - The recycled aluminum alloy market is facing weak consumption, with prices rising but downstream die-casting enterprises struggling to accept these increases, leading to a decline in demand [3] - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remain stable, but there is an accumulation of finished product inventory, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] - The price of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [3]