Finbold
Search documents
Is Nvidia (NVDA) still a safe bet?
Finbold· 2025-02-05 13:33
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) was one of the best-performing stocks of 2024. However, it has had a rough start in 2025.The crux of the present issues plaguing Nvidia stock arose in late January. Valuation concerns have been present for quite a while now — but another piece of the puzzle is the widespread worries that investors have had over the large capital expenditures that other tech companies — in other words, Nvidia’s customers, planned to make.To be more precise, in late January, those anxieties were compound ...
Is this the last Nvidia ‘dip' before a big crash?
Finbold· 2025-02-05 12:52
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced skepticism regarding its stock valuation despite significant revenue growth, with a $3 trillion valuation increase in about two years being perceived as excessive [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Following the release of the Chinese AI model DeepSeek, Nvidia's stock experienced a significant decline of 19.02%, dropping from $147.22 to $119.22 between January 23 and February 5 [2] - The efficiency of DeepSeek compared to U.S. models has raised doubts among analysts and investors about Nvidia's ability to maintain its rapid growth [3] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments and Revenue Impact - Morgan Stanley revised its forecast for Nvidia's shipments of the GB200 NVL72 from 30,000-35,000 to 20,000-25,000, with a pessimistic scenario suggesting shipments could fall below 20,000 [4] - If Morgan Stanley's reassessment is accurate, Nvidia's revenue for 2025 could be severely impacted, with potential sales reductions of at least 16.67% and possibly exceeding 42.86% [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Tariffs - The challenges facing Nvidia are exacerbated by the U.S. administration's tariffs, including a 10% tariff on China and potential tariffs on Taiwan, which is a key semiconductor manufacturing hub [6][8] - Nvidia, as a customer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), may face simultaneous supply and demand shocks due to the efficiency of DeepSeek and increased prices of Taiwanese goods [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is potential for Nvidia to adapt by focusing on TSMC's U.S. foundry, and a true demand shock may not materialize as investors may have misinterpreted the implications of DeepSeek [10] - Higher efficiency from models like DeepSeek may not undermine Western infrastructure investments but could instead accelerate advancements in AI capabilities [11]
Will Apple stock crash below $200 amid China's App Store probe
Finbold· 2025-02-05 11:46
Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing potential regulatory challenges in China regarding its App Store practices, leading to a decline in its share price during pre-market trading [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 4, Apple’s stock (AAPL) closed up 2.1% at $232.34, but fell 2.8% in pre-market trading to $226 [2]. - The current sell-off in Apple’s stock is attributed to reports of a possible investigation by China's market regulator into the company's App Store fees and payment policies [3]. Group 2: Market Context - China is Apple's second-largest revenue source after the U.S., crucial for iPhone sales and its manufacturing ecosystem, but faces rising competition from Huawei and stricter regulations [4]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and previous tariffs have added uncertainty to Apple's market position [4]. Group 3: Stock Price Predictions - Finbold's AI tool predicts that Apple’s stock will not drop below $200, with an average predicted price of $233.83, indicating a 2.22% increase from the current price [5]. - The most optimistic forecast from Claude 3.5 Sonnet suggests a price of $276.50 (+20.87%), while the most conservative prediction from ChatGPT-4o estimates a price of $210.00 (-8.2%) [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q4, Apple reported earnings per share of $2.40, surpassing estimates of $2.35, and revenue of $124.30 billion, slightly beating forecasts of $124.12 billion [8]. - Analysts project steady revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue expected at $94.32 billion (+3.93% year over year) and full-year 2025 projected at $409.51 billion (+4.72%) [9]. Group 5: Analyst Ratings - Wall Street analysts generally maintain a bullish outlook on Apple, with Bank of America maintaining a 'Buy' rating and a price target of $265, while Evercore ISI reaffirmed a 'Tactical Outperform' rating with a $250 target [10]. - Conversely, Jefferies downgraded Apple to 'Underperform' with a target of $200.75, citing weak demand for smartphone AI and potential delays in product development [11].
Here's why insiders are dumping this Bill Gates stock
Finbold· 2025-02-05 11:07
Bill Gates, the co-founder and former CEO of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been involved in philanthropy since the 1990s.At present, the Gates Foundation is the third-largest charitable foundation in the world. In order to finance its activities, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust maintains an expansive equity portfolio.Stability is a priority for the Trust — so it mostly invests in proven, blue-chip stocks, most of which have steady, reliable dividend payments. In addition, the portfolio is highly co ...
AI bubble burst imminent? Investors bracing for semiconductor stocks crash
Finbold· 2025-02-04 17:47
Group 1 - Investors are concerned about a potential crash in the semiconductor stock sector, which is crucial for the AI boom led by companies like Nvidia [1][2] - There is a significant increase in bearish bets on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), with the skew for 90-110 strike options reaching levels not seen since mid-2024, indicating aggressive hedging against declines in chip stocks [2] - Ongoing trade wars between the U.S. and China, along with U.S. policies restricting technology exports, are contributing to uncertainty in the semiconductor sector [3][4] Group 2 - The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, raises concerns about the future of AI infrastructure spending and the dominance of U.S. semiconductor firms [4][5] - Nvidia's recent stock performance has drawn parallels to the 2000 Dot-com bubble, with concerns that it may experience a similar fate as Cisco, which saw its stock plunge over 80% after the bubble burst [6][8] - Despite the risks, Nvidia's strong position in a profitable AI market and limited competition may help it sustain its value, provided that AI continues to deliver results [8]
Analyst updates Amazon stock price target ahead of earnings
Finbold· 2025-02-04 17:06
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is gearing up to report its Q4 2024 earnings on Thursday, February 6, following a year of impressive stock gains and sustained financial outperformance. The e-commerce and cloud giant saw its stock surge 47.39% in 2024, marking seven consecutive quarters of beating earnings estimates, with the latest report released on October 31.With the booming holiday shopping season, continued expansion across key business segments, and growing demand for AI and cloud services, expectations for ano ...
3 unstoppable Dow stocks poised to skyrocket in 2025 and beyond
Finbold· 2025-02-04 13:27
Consisting of 30 highly liquid stocks belonging to large-cap and mega-cap companies, the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) is one of the most important indices in the financial markets.The 30 Dow stocks that make up the DJIA provide a cross-section of the wider American economy — and an insight into investor sentiment. Whether they’re in tech, healthcare, energy, or consumer staples, these companies have proven track records. They do not, however, have the same growth prospects.Finbold has id ...
Tesla shipped nearly 4,900 vehicles a day in 2024
Finbold· 2025-02-04 11:23
In January, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its first-ever year-over-year (YoY) deliveries decline, with shipments falling from 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024.Finbold research found, however, that the daily delivery figures of the electric vehicle (EV) maker remained strong at an average of 4,889. The number is particularly optimistic once the figures for each quarter are considered.Specifically, Tesla saw an increase in the total number of deliveries in every consecutive quarter ...
Analyst sets Apple stock price target after Trump's 10% tariff on China
Finbold· 2025-02-03 15:04
A Wall Street analyst has shared insights on what to expect for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock as the company navigates the latest wave of American tariffs targeting China.Given the firm’s deep integration into the Chinese supply chain, Apple remains a key stock to watch amid the evolving trade tension.The uncertainty stemming from the tariffs, which also affect goods from Mexico and Canada, has led most equities, including Apple, to record notable losses. By press time, AAPL stock was valued at $230.78, down o ...
Is Nvidia headed below $100 amid new tariffs?
Finbold· 2025-02-03 12:48
On Monday, January 27, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock came under severe pressure as the release of the novel Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) DeepSeek threatened to change the ongoing technology boom radically.On Monday, February 3, NVDA shares are again facing a strong extended session downturn as U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the implementation of a 25% tariff on allied and partner nations of Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on ‘foreign adversary’ China.The move, blasted by many economists as ill ...