Economic Environment - The US effective tariff rate increase continues to create uncertainty in the market, with unclear long-term implications from the Trump administration [1] - The Volatility Index remains in the 20s, Treasury yields are fluctuating, and stock prices are nearing correction territory [2] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has declined, with cautionary guidance from companies during Q4 earnings calls [4] - The Johnson Redbook Index indicates steady year-over-year same-store sales growth in the 4% to 7% range since late 2023 [5] - Bank of America reported a 2.4% annualized increase in consumer spending for February 2025 [5] Corporate Performance - Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have lowered their earnings projections due to weaker travel demand [5][6] - Walmart reported strong Q4 earnings but provided guidance below market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its share price [6] - Lululemon is set to report Q4 earnings, with expectations of net revenue between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, reflecting an 11% to 12% increase year-over-year [11] Market Trends - Lululemon's stock has decreased from $423 to just above $325, mirroring broader retail sector weaknesses [10] - Disney's upcoming annual shareholder meeting is anticipated to provide insights into its streaming service and theme park performance, amid a 10% year-to-date stock decline [14][15] Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from Lululemon and Disney are expected to shed light on consumer spending trends and overall economic health [16]

Group 1 - Nvidia reported a record revenue of $130.5 billion for Fiscal 2025, representing a 114% year-over-year increase [2] - Analysts have frequently suggested buying Nvidia during dips, citing its strong financials and growth potential [4][5] - Despite positive analyst sentiment, macroeconomic factors such as tariffs, geopolitical stress, and rising costs pose risks to Nvidia's performance [3] Group 2 - The stock has shown bearish divergence, with the 200-day moving average (DMA) above the 50-DMA, indicating underperformance compared to benchmarks [8] - There is no clear reversal pattern observed, and potential support levels around $90 could lead to significant losses for investors who bought at higher prices [9] - The narrative surrounding Nvidia's long-term potential may not alleviate short-term price pressures, emphasizing that price movements dictate market sentiment [10]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced a dip due to tariff concerns and inflation worries, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rising above 20 [1] - Despite a strong fourth-quarter earnings season, investor confidence has been shaken, as indicated by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey showing a high number of net bears [4][5] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index fell by 10%, reflecting household concerns over potential inflation from tariffs [3] - The Conference Board reported a significant drop in household confidence, the largest since 2021, indicating a disconnect between CEO confidence and consumer sentiment [3] Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The fourth-quarter earnings season showed the best bottom-line growth for the S&P 500 since 2021, driven by companies like NVIDIA [2] - Costco reported a strong 9.8% increase in January sales, suggesting resilience in consumer spending despite broader economic concerns [7][8] - Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue report is anticipated to provide insights into the semiconductor industry's health, following NVIDIA's mixed earnings reaction [9] Upcoming Reports and Expectations - Upcoming earnings reports from major firms, including Costco and Taiwan Semiconductor, are expected to provide critical data on consumer behavior and industry performance [12] - Asset managers like Invesco and T. Rowe Price are set to release AUM reports that could reflect market trends and investor sentiment [10][11]

Group 1 - Google Cloud secured a $2.5 billion, seven-year deal with Salesforce CRM, allowing Salesforce customers to run key software like Agentforce AI and Data Cloud on Google Cloud [2] - The partnership aims to counter Microsoft's dominance in enterprise AI and cloud, with clients like Wayfair and Accenture set to move Salesforce apps to Google Cloud [2] - Salesforce will integrate Google's Gemini AI into its services, highlighting its strategic focus on enhancing AI capabilities [3] Group 2 - Salesforce is included as a top 10 pick in the Outlook 2025 due to its involvement in funding major events like the Olympics and the NFL on Netflix [3] - Recent market conditions indicate a potential reversal pattern for Salesforce, with a new 60+ day low price observed [7] - The stock's recent low of 303.61 is close to a previous gap low of 303.07, suggesting 293 as a logical risk point [7]

Group 1: Earnings Overview - Retailers, fintech, and marketplaces reported strong earnings with record profits and revenue from several portfolio companies [1] - Fiverr's results were particularly noteworthy, along with their announcement of AI Agents on the platform, indicating a shift from Gig Economy to Giga Economy [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - Zillow remains the dominant online real estate platform, experiencing a 6% year-over-year growth in U.S. visits in January, marking it as the only platform with consistent growth last year [5][6] - Higher traffic for Zillow could enhance its advertising and mortgage business potential [6] Group 3: Block's Financial Performance - Block (Square) achieved a significant margin expansion from nearly 0% in 2019-2020 to 34% in 2024, driven by cost efficiencies and monetization across Cash App and Square [7] - The sustained profitability and growth of Block could lead to a re-rating of the stock by investors if margins hold [7] Group 4: Humanoid Robotics Development - Meta announced ambitions in humanoid robotics, with models reaching human size and pushing towards commercial applications [8] - The evolution of humanoid robots is driven by decreasing costs of robotics and computing, alongside rising human labor costs, indicating a significant market potential [9]

I love consumer instinct.Thank you, Peter Lynch, for teaching us about using our instincts as consumers along with megatrends and technical analysis. Last night we went to a dinner party and the conversation turned to Bowling Green, Nebraska, the Ozempic capital of the U.S. On December 2, 2024, I wrote a Daily called, Novo-Nordisk, A Love Story. Sign up for our FREE newsletter and receive our best trading ideas and research Leave this field empty if you're human: I wrote, “According to an article ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Obesity rates have more than doubled in the last 35 years, with 42% of the world population, or 22 million adults, having a body mass index of 40 or higher [1] - Analysts expect annual growth of 20% or higher for the company in the coming years, despite competition from Novo-Nordisk [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Earnings expectations for the company are projected at $3.24 per share for the current year [1] - The company is currently viewed as oversold and is at major support levels according to technical analysis [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The stock has fallen to the 200-week moving average, indicating a lack of leadership in the market [4] - A breakdown occurred under the low from December 20th, making the prior low pivotal for future trading [6][7] - The classic reversal pattern will be used to determine entry points with risk parameters [8]

NVIDIA's Performance and Market Impact - NVIDIA's stock soared 171% in 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 25% return [2] - The company accounted for more than one-fifth of the S&P 500's 2024 gain due to its massive weighting in the index [2] - Despite strong earnings beats in August and November, the stock traded sideways through the end of 2024 [2] AI and Industry Trends - AI continues to be a dominant theme, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies citing AI on earnings calls by Q2 2024 [6] - Non-tech firms are increasingly adopting AI, as highlighted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's statement that "every industry will become a technology company" [5][6] - The semiconductor industry, particularly NVIDIA, has been a major beneficiary of the AI-driven tech revolution [1] Upcoming Events and Catalysts - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote at CES on January 6, 2025, showcasing robotics innovations, RTX 50xx gaming graphics cards, and potential entry into the AI PC market [4] - The company will also participate in a fireside chat with analysts at J P Morgan and hold a financial analyst Q&A during CES [4] - Investors are closely watching for updates on Blackwell chips, including potential defects and production delays, which impacted shares in the second half of 2024 [4] Financial Outlook and Analyst Expectations - NVIDIA is expected to report fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 26, with consensus estimates calling for $0 85 in non-GAAP EPS, marking 64% bottom-line growth [9] - For FY 2025, per-share earnings are expected to rise by 128% to $2 95, with 50% EPS growth projected for the following year [9] - Bank of America forecasts a 50% sales increase for NVIDIA in 2025, potentially making it the fastest top-line grower in the S&P 500 [9] Market Volatility and Investor Focus - NVIDIA's implied volatility heading into CES was 45%, down from peak levels of 70-80% in August and September 2024 [4] - Investors are bracing for potential volatility around key events, including CES and the J P Morgan Healthcare Conference, as well as the upcoming Q4 earnings report [4][10]

Company Overview - AbbVie Inc is a global biopharmaceutical company specializing in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of advanced medicines [1] - The company focuses primarily on immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and virology treatments, with a broad portfolio of prescription drugs addressing various medical conditions [1] Key Products - Humira (adalimumab), one of the world's best-selling drugs, is used to treat various autoimmune conditions; however, its patent expired in 2023 [1] - AbbVie is transitioning to a newer drug, Rinvoq, in the immunology space following the expiration of Humira's patent [1] - The company also develops treatments for various cancers and focuses on neurological and psychiatric conditions, with popular products including Botox and Allergan [1] Market Position and Technical Analysis - The stock is currently trading under the 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a phase of distribution [2] - A support level at $160 is identified as a risk point for the stock [4] - Recent buying activity has been noted since a low in November, suggesting potential interest from investors [3] - A pivotal price point at $172 is highlighted, with a move and hold above this level seen as compelling for initiating a position [7] - Real Motion analysis indicates a mean reversion to the buy side could be occurring, and leadership indicators suggest the stock is on support [5][6]

Core Insights - The stocks of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY), both prominent players in the dietary drug market, have stopped declining in price, raising questions about their investment potential at current levels [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - A recent Mercer survey indicates that 44% of US employers with 500+ employees now cover weight-loss drugs, an increase from 41% in 2023 [1]. - Among employers with over 20,000 employees, coverage for weight-loss drugs has risen to 64%, up from 56% last year [1]. - The rising costs of obesity drugs have contributed to a 5% increase in annual healthcare costs per employee, averaging $16,501 for self-insured plans [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Eli Lilly's stock showed a reversal bottom low on Monday, with today's price action confirming this trend [5]. - Novo Nordisk also exhibited a clear reversal bottom low on the same day, filling the gap left from a previous drop [5]. - Real Motion indicators suggest a mean reversion buy signal for Eli Lilly, while Novo Nordisk's performance is closely tracking benchmarks [5].