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Inside the Corporate Earnings Reporting Frequency Debate
See It Market· 2025-09-22 15:41
Core Viewpoint - The debate on the frequency of corporate earnings reporting in the US has resurfaced, with President Trump advocating for semi-annual reporting instead of quarterly, citing potential cost savings and improved management focus [1][7]. Group 1: Reporting Frequency Comparison - US companies are mandated to report earnings quarterly, while most international companies only require semi-annual filings [3][7]. - In a universe of 11,000 global equities, only 13% report twice a year, with 62% being North American companies, and only 1% of those are North American companies [4]. Group 2: UK Case Study - The UK transitioned from semi-annual reporting to quarterly reporting between 2007 and 2014, before reverting back to semi-annual reporting [5]. Group 3: Pros of Semiannual Reporting - Advocates argue that semi-annual reporting could reduce "short-termism" and allow companies to focus on long-term strategies [9]. - It is believed that less frequent reporting could revive IPO markets, as the current rigorous SEC requirements deter companies from going public; the number of publicly traded companies in the US has decreased by 17% over three years and nearly 50% since 1997 [10]. Group 4: Cons of Semiannual Reporting - Critics highlight that less frequent earnings reports could lead to reduced transparency and insights into company performance, which are crucial for investors and analysts [11]. - There are concerns that semi-annual reporting could increase opportunities for illegal activities within corporations due to fewer checkpoints for scrutiny [12]. Group 5: Fundamental Debate - The core of the debate revolves around whether public markets should prioritize transparency and up-to-date information for investors or create an environment that allows companies to focus on long-term growth without short-term pressures [13].
Russell 2000: Triple Top Pattern or Launching Pad?
See It Market· 2025-09-19 16:14
Market Overview - The Russell 2000 (IWM) reached an all-time high of 244.46 in November 2021 and has shown a slight increase to 244.98 in November 2024, with a recent high of 245.14 on September 18 [1][2]. Technical Analysis - A monthly close above 243.50 for IWM is necessary to maintain a bullish bias [2]. - The Russell 2000 is currently outperforming the S&P 500, indicating positive momentum for small-cap stocks [11][12]. - The Real Motion indicator shows strong momentum, with red dots clearing the Bollinger Band, but it needs to remain above the Bollinger Band for continued strength [13]. Economic Indicators - A strong consumer base, supported by good wages and a robust labor market, is essential for sustained growth in US-centric companies [3]. - Retail remains a laggard, with the XRT index being 30% away from its 2021 highs, indicating potential challenges in the retail sector [4]. Market Sentiment - There are no significant bearish indicators currently, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [14].
Emerging Markets Analysis: Earnings, Valuations, and Currency Correlations
See It Market· 2025-09-17 17:56
Core Insights - Emerging Markets (EM) represent 10-15% of global equity market capitalization, which is significant but often overlooked due to poor performance in recent decades [1][2] - Over the past 15 years, EM has returned 4.6% annualized compared to 11.4% for Developed Markets (DM) and 7.3% for developed international markets, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance for EM [2][3] - In 2025, EM has shown a strong recovery, up approximately 21% compared to 13% for broader markets, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] Resilience and Market Dynamics - Despite rising central bank rates from near zero in 2021 to 5.5% by the end of 2023, EM has shown resilience, managing the hiking cycle better than in previous cycles [4][5] - The overall growth and increased diversification in EM have made these markets less risky than in the past, with decreasing headwinds as rates begin to decline [5] Valuations and Earnings Growth - EM typically has lower valuations, with a current multiple spread of 20.4x for DM and 13.8x for EM, which is historically wide and supportive of EM investment [6][7] - Relative earnings growth has slowed due to a more tariffed global trade environment, but this is not seen as an insurmountable challenge [8] Flows and Currency Trends - Incremental capital is increasingly flowing into international markets, including EM, which may benefit from a weaker US dollar, historically a positive factor for EM performance [9][11] - Many developing economies in EM are resource-rich, which may enhance their currency strength in a context of inflationary pressures in developed economies [12] Concentration Issues - A concentration problem has emerged within EM, particularly with significant price appreciation in markets like China (up 45%), Hong Kong (60%), and Taiwan (30%) over the past year [13][14] - The high concentration in technology sectors within these markets raises concerns, as many investors may not be aware of the risks associated with this concentration [15] Final Thoughts - Despite some challenges, including slowing earnings growth and concentration risks, the positives for EM investment are seen to outweigh the negatives [16][17] - Attractive valuations and increasing international fund flows suggest that EM may capture a larger share of investment, especially if the US dollar continues to weaken [17]
Stock Market ETFs Analysis Into Federal Reserve Meeting
See It Market· 2025-09-15 16:00
Starting with a chart of the 20+ Year US Treasury Bonds ETF (NASDAQ: TLT), we can see that its price cleared the key moving averages and the July 6-month calendar range high.The Leadership indicator is the most important part to watch. Right now, TLT slightly outperforms the benchmark. Should that continue, considering the FOMC policy hits the markets this week, that could be an early warning sign we are about to enter a risk-off environment. Sign up for our FREE newsletter and receive our best trading ...
Stock Market ETFs Update: This Week's Trading Ranges
See It Market· 2025-09-12 13:29
This is a good time to step back and gain some perspective on the key ETFs I follow as the market anticipates several economic happenings, such as:Lower interest ratesLower inflationWeaker dollarWeaker labor market Growth leadingI start with the Transportation Sector ETF (NYSEARCA: IYT) looking at the weekly chart. When I step it back, it looks weaker than the growth stocks, however, the chart suggests nothing more than noise right now.The Transportation Sector ETF (IYT) is in a weekly bullish phase, un ...
Weak Jobs Report, Fed Rate Cut, and All Eyes on Inflation Data
See It Market· 2025-09-10 18:27
A surprisingly weak August jobs report has locked in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, shifting all market focus to this Thursday’s key inflation (CPI) reportConsumer behavior is again in focus this week, with Kraft-Heinz announcing a major spinoff due to shifting preferencesKey earnings from Kroger and Restoration Hardware set to reveal the strength of spending on both essentials and larger ticket itemsLabor Market Falters, Pushing Fed Rate Cut Probability to 100%Last week’s employme ...
Analyst Days and Shareholder Meetings Add To Macro Backdrop
See It Market· 2025-09-10 15:52
Core Insights - The article discusses the busy schedule of corporate events, including Analyst Days and Shareholder Meetings, which can provide valuable insights into companies' short-term trends and strategic plans [1][2][3] Company Events - Uber Technologies participated in a Fireside Chat with Goldman Sachs analysts, while Visa, Apple, and Nike are hosting significant events this week [2] - CrowdStrike's Analyst Day is scheduled for September 17, following a stock price decline of over 20% from its peak of $518 in early July, despite strong revenue and earnings performance [6][9] - Wynn Resorts will hold its Analyst Day on September 19, with shares nearly doubling since April, although recent reports indicate challenges in the Las Vegas tourism sector [7][9] - Alibaba's Shareholder Meeting is set for September 25, with the company recently announcing the development of new AI chips, positioning itself competitively in the tech sector [10] - FedEx's Shareholder Meeting is on September 29, with expectations for clarity on its Freight division spinoff amid a 20% stock price decline over the past year [11] Economic Context - The article highlights the upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including retail sales and Federal Reserve policy decisions, which could impact market sentiment and company performance [4][5][12] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 15, indicating modest expected volatility in the S&P 500, suggesting a stable market environment for the time being [12]
Will Tokenization Take IBM Stock Higher?
See It Market· 2025-09-10 15:38
I am busy researching asset tokenization.There is a lot to unpack. However, in my current research (and stay tuned for more to come), I looked up: Publicly Traded Companies with Tokenization Involvement Sign up for our FREE newsletter and receive our best trading ideas and research Leave this field empty if you're human: Nvidia came up. So did Coinbase, PayPal, Robinhood and Block, Inc.What I learned about Nvidia is that it’s not primarily focused on tokenization, yet its involvement in blockchai ...
Circle (CRCL) Trading Analysis: A Hot IPO Gone South
See It Market· 2025-09-05 15:43
Company Overview - Circle Internet Group Inc (NASDAQ: CRCL) had its IPO on June 5, 2025, with an opening stock price of $69.00 per share, which rose to $298.99 by June 23rd [1][6]. Business Model - Circle operates an open Layer-1 blockchain designed specifically for stablecoin finance, utilizing USDC (a $1.00 stablecoin) for transaction fees, which keeps costs low and predictable [3][5]. - The company aims to create a reliable and high-performance infrastructure for global payments and financial transactions, likening its ambition to that of Visa and PayPal building their own versions of Ethereum [4][5]. Financial Performance - Despite the initial surge in stock price, Circle reported a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, primarily due to IPO-related costs [6]. Market Sentiment - Analysts have downgraded CRCL stock, expressing concerns over high valuation, increasing competition, and regulatory risks in the digital finance sector [7]. - The stock's significant decline raises questions about the company's long-term viability, although there are indications of a potential reversal pattern that could signal a buying opportunity [7][9].
Tech Tumbles, All Eyes on Nvidia (NVDA)
See It Market· 2025-08-26 04:19
Market Overview - The tech sector experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 2.5% and the S&P 500 by 1.2% due to profit-taking and high valuations concerns [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on potential interest rate cuts led to a recovery in major indices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week higher, the latter reaching an all-time high [3] Company-Specific Insights - Palantir's stock reached a record high of $190 following strong Q2 earnings, but an overheated P/E ratio of 193 caused investor retreat [2] - Nvidia is expected to report significant year-over-year growth in Q2, with EPS projected to rise by 47% and revenue by 53%, driven by demand for their Blackwell Ultra chip [4] - Concerns regarding Nvidia's revenue from China have emerged, with potential exclusion of direct revenue due to pending license approvals and evolving export controls [5] Retail Sector Performance - TJX Companies reported better-than-expected Q2 results, benefiting from lower tariff exposure and value-seeking consumers [6] - Ross Stores also exceeded EPS expectations and provided positive guidance for Q3 [7] - Specialty and apparel retailers face challenges, with Citi downgrading Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap, and Urban Outfitters due to tariff risks and inventory management issues [9] Upcoming Earnings - A total of 1,383 companies are set to report earnings next week, with 79% of companies in the universe having reported thus far [10] - The next earnings season will begin on October 14, featuring major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo [10]