Market Overview - The trading week began with significant market declines, influenced by geopolitical tensions and new tariffs, leading to a spike in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) above 20 and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experiencing its worst session since August [1] - Japan's bond market faced a severe downturn, with the 40-year yield reaching a record high above 4.20% and the 30-year rate increasing by 27 basis points to 3.88%, raising concerns about the fiscal impact of tax cuts [2] Energy Sector Performance - The energy sector emerged as a standout performer, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors trading in the red, while energy stocks showed resilience [4] - Exxon Mobil (XOM) reached a record high above $131, demonstrating strong performance despite overall depressed oil prices [5] - Oil prices have been under pressure due to a global oil glut, with WTI and Brent crude prices affected by President Trump's policies and OPEC's struggles to stabilize the market [6] Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The natural gas market experienced volatility, with the February 2026 contract of U.S. Henry Hub gas surging nearly 30% due to forecasts of severe cold weather [7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Baker Hughes (BKR) is set to report its Q4 earnings, with shares hovering near record highs ahead of the unusual weekend earnings event [11] - The market anticipates limited volatility from BKR's upcoming report, with expected stock movement around 4.8% [12] - Major energy companies, including Halliburton (HAL), SLB Corp (formerly Schlumberger), Exxon Mobil, and Chevron, are scheduled to report earnings soon, with a focus on their insights regarding the volatile global energy market [13] Geopolitical Considerations - The situation in Venezuela remains complex, with the country's oil reserves likely overstated and the oil being of lower quality, complicating U.S. investment prospects [14][15] - Despite challenges, Chevron's existing assets in Venezuela could be optimized for better extraction in the future [15] Investment Trends - Energy stocks, particularly XOM and CVX, have outperformed the S&P 500, with both companies up nearly 9% in 2026, attracting income investors due to their dividend yields [16] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) leads among S&P 500 sector funds, up over 6% year-to-date, providing diversification amid macroeconomic volatility [16]

Group 1 - The "Big Six" US banks (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, MS, GS) reported strong Q4 2025 profits, with half of them missing revenue expectations due to one-time charges [1] - Investment banking showed a resurgence, and loan demand remained strong despite falling interest rates and significant restructuring charges [2] - Most banks exceeded EPS estimates, but market reactions were muted or negative due to cautious 2026 guidance and rising operational costs related to AI investments [3] Group 2 - Bank of America reported a 12% profit increase driven by record net interest income, while JPMorgan and Citigroup managed one-time cleanup costs to signal a clearer path forward [4] - As of now, 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with a blended EPS growth rate of 8.2% and revenue growth expectations rising to 7.8% [5] - The Late Earnings Report Index (LERI) indicates that CEOs are more confident than ever, with a record low reading of 46 for Q4 earnings season [6][8] Group 3 - The peak earnings season for Q4 is expected to run from January 26 to February 27, with over 1,000 reports anticipated each week [11] - Upcoming earnings releases include 35 S&P 500 companies and 577 companies in the global universe of 11,000 equities [9]

Core Insights - The price of oil is near a five-year low, despite rising costs in other sectors, indicating an oversupply situation in the market [1] - Both supply and demand factors contribute to the oversupply, with increased production from mega projects and a lack of demand growth [2][4] Supply Factors - Supply has risen due to mega projects, stable U.S. production, and OPEC's removal of production cuts [2] - There have been few large projects initiated recently, which may help stabilize supply in the future [8] - U.S. production growth optimism is declining, with drilled uncompleted wells at historical lows due to prolonged low oil prices [8] Demand Factors - Demand growth has been flat, influenced by the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid cars, as well as changes in work-from-home trends [3][6] - Emerging markets like India and Indonesia are experiencing rising demand, while China's demand has been flat due to its real estate crisis [4][7] - The demand for petrochemicals is becoming a significant factor in oil consumption [4] Market Sentiment - There is a record number of speculative short positions in oil, which may serve as a contrarian indicator for potential price rebounds [5] - The consensus on oil demand may be overly pessimistic, especially if economic momentum in developing economies continues to improve [9] Venezuela's Impact - Venezuela has significant heavy oil reserves but currently produces less than one million barrels per day, down from three million [10] - The potential for increased Venezuelan production poses risks for Canadian energy companies, particularly if it coincides with a global demand recovery [13] - Canadian policymakers may be encouraged to enhance infrastructure to access new markets following recent changes in Venezuelan oil exports [14] Final Thoughts - Current oil headlines may not reflect the underlying market dynamics, and equity weakness could present investment opportunities [15] - The global energy demand is typically weak in Q1, which may amplify discussions about the current surplus [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 2025 earnings season for US corporations is set to begin, with expectations of continued corporate earnings growth, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, as investors assess market momentum for the new year [1][10]. Earnings Growth and Economic Resilience - Earnings growth in 2025 reflects the resilience of the US economy, with corporations and consumers adapting to challenges such as the Fed's rate hikes and trade shocks [2]. - US companies managed to maintain profit growth by pivoting production, renegotiating with suppliers, and passing costs onto consumers, contrary to expectations of significant cost-cutting [3]. Q4 Earnings Expectations - The consensus for Q4 S&P 500 EPS growth is projected at 8.3%, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of growth, while revenues are expected to grow by 7.7% year-over-year [5]. - Eight out of eleven S&P sectors are anticipated to show year-over-year gains, with Information Technology (25.9%), Materials (9.0%), and Financials (6.4%) leading [6]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector is expected to perform strongly, with a focus on deal-making, net interest income (NII), and regulatory changes [6][7][8]. - Global M&A volume reached approximately $5 trillion in 2025, a 40% increase from the previous year, indicating a revival in Wall Street fees [7]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts to the 3.50%-3.75% range may impact banks' profit margins, making guidance on NII from major banks crucial [8]. Consumer Health Indicators - Despite economic pressures, US consumers have shown resilience, with credit card delinquency data being a key indicator of consumer health [12]. - If delinquency rates remain below 3%, it could signal a soft landing for the economy [12]. Upcoming Earnings Season - The peak weeks of the Q4 earnings season are expected between January 26 and February 27, with over 1,000 reports anticipated each week [13]. - February 26 is predicted to be the most active day, with 855 companies expected to report their earnings [13].

Inflation Trends - Inflation has continued to cool, with World Economy Weighted Inflation decreasing from 4.4% to 3.3% in 2025, aided by low supply chain pressures and moderated wage growth [1][4] - The setup for an inflationary spike similar to 2021/22 is not present, as global money growth is rising but velocity is falling [2] Economic Conditions - Inflation in the 2-4% range is favorable for equities, providing companies with pricing power and top-line growth, but concerns arise when inflation approaches 4% [3] - The U.S. faces higher inflation risks due to aggressive fiscal spending, erosion of central bank independence, and a positive output gap, while other countries like Germany, Japan, France, and Canada have negative gaps [4][5] Long-term Inflation Outlook - Inflation has eroded purchasing power by over 20% in the past four years, and while portfolio returns have kept pace, long-term inflation is expected to be higher and more volatile than in the 2010s [6] - Secular factors are becoming more inflationary, with globalization trends shifting from disinflationary to inflationary due to tariffs and supply chain diversification [7] Policy and Debt Implications - Erosion of central bank independence poses risks for monetary policy effectiveness, particularly in the U.S. and some developing countries, while fiscal spending is rising globally, which may increase inflation [8] - Total debt is disinflationary as it crowds out investment, and significant levels of debt exist in the economy [9] Technological Impact - Technology that enhances productivity is generally disinflationary, but current capital expenditures on AI infrastructure are inflationary, contributing to inflationary cyclicality [10] Investment Strategies - To mitigate the risks of higher and more volatile inflation, equities, especially those with dividend growth, are recommended as a defense, along with real asset exposure [11]

Core Insights - The stock market in 2026 may face challenges not from opposing market sentiments but from competing bullish perspectives [1] - Major banks have set S&P 500 Index targets for 2026 that are all above the current level of approximately 6,900, indicating a generally optimistic outlook [2][3] - Historical trends suggest that Wall Street's targets have often been conservative, with the exception of early 2025, which saw overly optimistic expectations [3][4] Market Sentiment - Current market conditions do not indicate a euphoric peak, but finding a unifying bullish narrative may be challenging [4] - Timing the market is complex, as it is difficult to maintain a bullish stance when consensus is overwhelmingly positive [5] - Increased market volatility is anticipated, characterized by more frequent drawdowns from market highs [5] Market Dynamics - The ongoing bull market is expected to continue, albeit with significant market rotation, which is already being observed [6] - Market rotation is beneficial for active swing traders, providing opportunities to capitalize on pullbacks in favored trends [7]

Group 1 - The Economic Modern Family Animated Series has officially launched, with content available on the company's YouTube channel [1] - The 2026 Outlook highlights a bullish bias from January to July 2026, followed by a choppier market but still constructive into 2027 [2] - Key beneficiary sectors identified for 2026 include Shipping, Transportation/Logistics, Telecom/Comms, Media & Entertainment, and Banking/Precious Metals, while laggards are Agriculture, non-precious mining, traditional construction, and Earth-heavy industries [2] Group 2 - The 2025 review confirmed the framework with emerging markets, metals, semiconductors, and AI leading, while Bitcoin and retail lagged [2] - The market personality for 2026 is characterized by active risk assets, speculative leadership, strengthening in Asia, and rising metals, with defensives lagging unless the Federal Reserve eases aggressively [2] - The Modern Family positioning for 2026 categorizes sectors into leaders, improving, mixed, and struggling, with specific ETFs identified for each category [2] Group 3 - The overarching theme for investment in 2026 is the "Infrastructure for a New World," focusing on energy grid, AI build-out, supply chains, security, health, and productivity [2] - Cross-cutting innovation drivers include AI, tokenization and decentralization, energy resilience, biotech/longevity, robotics automation, and space [2]

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to experience volatility, upheaval, innovation, and bold shifts in 2026, drawing parallels to 1966 [3] - The labor market is shifting towards AI skills and automation, contrasting with the industrial labor boom of 1966 [8] - The outlook for oil remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors, with $60 being a significant price pivot [9] Group 2: Industry Developments - Biotech advancements are moving from symptom treatment to true cures, driven by AI and immunology [5] - The banking and finance sectors are transitioning towards digitalization, tokenization, and deregulation, reminiscent of the ATM transformation in 1966 [6] - Commodities such as copper, silver, and uranium are highlighted as having strong potential, with structural shortages in electrification themes [10] Group 3: Economic Insights - There is skepticism regarding headline CPI numbers, with a focus on price, rotation, and intermarket relationships [7] - The concept of universal income is gaining traction among influential leaders, echoing discussions from the late 1960s [8] - Consumer spending is resilient despite weaker job data, similar to trends observed in 1966 [6]

Economic Outlook - The modern economic family index, created to track the health of the US economy, shows signs of improvement despite previous underperformance [2] - Small caps and transportation sectors have reached all-time highs, indicating a potential disconnect between stock performance and the real economy [2] Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Continued support for precious metals is expected due to factors like debt, a weakening USD, and geopolitical concerns, with a bullish outlook on silver and a price target of $4,700 for gold [4] - **Cryptocurrency**: The sector is seen as a "coiled spring" with potential upside if Bitcoin holds support at $80,000, driven by similar concerns about debt and dollar debasement [4] - **Financials**: Reduced regulation may spur M&A activity beneficial to investment banks, alongside potential lower rates and increased lending, though the industry faces generational changes towards more digital solutions [4] - **Technology**: The tech sector is currently flat, with some major stocks being over-extended. IBM is highlighted for its quantum computing initiatives, with a price target of $400 next year [4]

Core Insights - November experienced increased market volatility, concerns over high valuations, and uncertainty regarding monetary policy, yet North American equities managed to finish positively for the seventh consecutive month, driven by solid earnings and expectations of continued Fed policy easing [1][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index recorded a modest gain of 0.25% in November, marking its worst performance since April, after spending most of the month in negative territory [2] - Canadian equities outperformed, with the TSX Composite Total Return Index rising by 3.9%, led by the Materials sector [5] Economic Indicators - Investors faced mixed economic data, the lingering impact of the U.S. government shutdown, and concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven capital spending, particularly affecting the tech sector, which saw a decline of 4.4% despite strong earnings [3][4] - The U.S. labor market is perceived to be weakening, while inflation appears controlled, allowing the Fed to consider further easing [6] Future Outlook - December typically favors equities, but current elevated valuations and uncertainties regarding AI investments may limit potential gains, despite strong earnings fundamentals and seasonal support [7] - The overall economic environment remains stable, with inflation trends being mildly lower, which has kept bond yields rangebound [9]