Group 1 - The overall market indices and sectors did not experience significant downturns, indicating a stable market environment [1] - The focus is on buying hard assets and stocks that are breaking out of a base, rather than those that are declining [2][3] - Intel Inc. is highlighted as a stock with potential for growth, suggesting it is not too late to invest [4][5] Group 2 - Intel has established a solid base since October/November 2024, indicating a foundation for potential growth [6] - The daily chart shows that Intel is currently in an accumulation phase, with strong momentum and leadership [7][8] - For further growth, Intel must close above the 50-week moving average and surpass the highest weekly close since November, specifically over 26.25 [9][10][11] - If these conditions are met, Intel could potentially reach prices of 32 and then 40.00 [12]

Economic Environment - The US effective tariff rate increase continues to create uncertainty in the market, with unclear long-term implications from the Trump administration [1] - The Volatility Index remains in the 20s, Treasury yields are fluctuating, and stock prices are nearing correction territory [2] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has declined, with cautionary guidance from companies during Q4 earnings calls [4] - The Johnson Redbook Index indicates steady year-over-year same-store sales growth in the 4% to 7% range since late 2023 [5] - Bank of America reported a 2.4% annualized increase in consumer spending for February 2025 [5] Corporate Performance - Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have lowered their earnings projections due to weaker travel demand [5][6] - Walmart reported strong Q4 earnings but provided guidance below market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its share price [6] - Lululemon is set to report Q4 earnings, with expectations of net revenue between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, reflecting an 11% to 12% increase year-over-year [11] Market Trends - Lululemon's stock has decreased from $423 to just above $325, mirroring broader retail sector weaknesses [10] - Disney's upcoming annual shareholder meeting is anticipated to provide insights into its streaming service and theme park performance, amid a 10% year-to-date stock decline [14][15] Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from Lululemon and Disney are expected to shed light on consumer spending trends and overall economic health [16]

Group 1 - Nvidia reported a record revenue of $130.5 billion for Fiscal 2025, representing a 114% year-over-year increase [2] - Analysts have frequently suggested buying Nvidia during dips, citing its strong financials and growth potential [4][5] - Despite positive analyst sentiment, macroeconomic factors such as tariffs, geopolitical stress, and rising costs pose risks to Nvidia's performance [3] Group 2 - The stock has shown bearish divergence, with the 200-day moving average (DMA) above the 50-DMA, indicating underperformance compared to benchmarks [8] - There is no clear reversal pattern observed, and potential support levels around $90 could lead to significant losses for investors who bought at higher prices [9] - The narrative surrounding Nvidia's long-term potential may not alleviate short-term price pressures, emphasizing that price movements dictate market sentiment [10]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced a dip due to tariff concerns and inflation worries, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rising above 20 [1] - Despite a strong fourth-quarter earnings season, investor confidence has been shaken, as indicated by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey showing a high number of net bears [4][5] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index fell by 10%, reflecting household concerns over potential inflation from tariffs [3] - The Conference Board reported a significant drop in household confidence, the largest since 2021, indicating a disconnect between CEO confidence and consumer sentiment [3] Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The fourth-quarter earnings season showed the best bottom-line growth for the S&P 500 since 2021, driven by companies like NVIDIA [2] - Costco reported a strong 9.8% increase in January sales, suggesting resilience in consumer spending despite broader economic concerns [7][8] - Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue report is anticipated to provide insights into the semiconductor industry's health, following NVIDIA's mixed earnings reaction [9] Upcoming Reports and Expectations - Upcoming earnings reports from major firms, including Costco and Taiwan Semiconductor, are expected to provide critical data on consumer behavior and industry performance [12] - Asset managers like Invesco and T. Rowe Price are set to release AUM reports that could reflect market trends and investor sentiment [10][11]

Group 1 - Google Cloud secured a $2.5 billion, seven-year deal with Salesforce CRM, allowing Salesforce customers to run key software like Agentforce AI and Data Cloud on Google Cloud [2] - The partnership aims to counter Microsoft's dominance in enterprise AI and cloud, with clients like Wayfair and Accenture set to move Salesforce apps to Google Cloud [2] - Salesforce will integrate Google's Gemini AI into its services, highlighting its strategic focus on enhancing AI capabilities [3] Group 2 - Salesforce is included as a top 10 pick in the Outlook 2025 due to its involvement in funding major events like the Olympics and the NFL on Netflix [3] - Recent market conditions indicate a potential reversal pattern for Salesforce, with a new 60+ day low price observed [7] - The stock's recent low of 303.61 is close to a previous gap low of 303.07, suggesting 293 as a logical risk point [7]

Group 1: Earnings Overview - Retailers, fintech, and marketplaces reported strong earnings with record profits and revenue from several portfolio companies [1] - Fiverr's results were particularly noteworthy, along with their announcement of AI Agents on the platform, indicating a shift from Gig Economy to Giga Economy [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - Zillow remains the dominant online real estate platform, experiencing a 6% year-over-year growth in U.S. visits in January, marking it as the only platform with consistent growth last year [5][6] - Higher traffic for Zillow could enhance its advertising and mortgage business potential [6] Group 3: Block's Financial Performance - Block (Square) achieved a significant margin expansion from nearly 0% in 2019-2020 to 34% in 2024, driven by cost efficiencies and monetization across Cash App and Square [7] - The sustained profitability and growth of Block could lead to a re-rating of the stock by investors if margins hold [7] Group 4: Humanoid Robotics Development - Meta announced ambitions in humanoid robotics, with models reaching human size and pushing towards commercial applications [8] - The evolution of humanoid robots is driven by decreasing costs of robotics and computing, alongside rising human labor costs, indicating a significant market potential [9]

I love consumer instinct.Thank you, Peter Lynch, for teaching us about using our instincts as consumers along with megatrends and technical analysis. Last night we went to a dinner party and the conversation turned to Bowling Green, Nebraska, the Ozempic capital of the U.S. On December 2, 2024, I wrote a Daily called, Novo-Nordisk, A Love Story. Sign up for our FREE newsletter and receive our best trading ideas and research Leave this field empty if you're human: I wrote, “According to an article ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Obesity rates have more than doubled in the last 35 years, with 42% of the world population, or 22 million adults, having a body mass index of 40 or higher [1] - Analysts expect annual growth of 20% or higher for the company in the coming years, despite competition from Novo-Nordisk [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Earnings expectations for the company are projected at $3.24 per share for the current year [1] - The company is currently viewed as oversold and is at major support levels according to technical analysis [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The stock has fallen to the 200-week moving average, indicating a lack of leadership in the market [4] - A breakdown occurred under the low from December 20th, making the prior low pivotal for future trading [6][7] - The classic reversal pattern will be used to determine entry points with risk parameters [8]

NVIDIA's Performance and Market Impact - NVIDIA's stock soared 171% in 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 25% return [2] - The company accounted for more than one-fifth of the S&P 500's 2024 gain due to its massive weighting in the index [2] - Despite strong earnings beats in August and November, the stock traded sideways through the end of 2024 [2] AI and Industry Trends - AI continues to be a dominant theme, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies citing AI on earnings calls by Q2 2024 [6] - Non-tech firms are increasingly adopting AI, as highlighted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's statement that "every industry will become a technology company" [5][6] - The semiconductor industry, particularly NVIDIA, has been a major beneficiary of the AI-driven tech revolution [1] Upcoming Events and Catalysts - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote at CES on January 6, 2025, showcasing robotics innovations, RTX 50xx gaming graphics cards, and potential entry into the AI PC market [4] - The company will also participate in a fireside chat with analysts at J P Morgan and hold a financial analyst Q&A during CES [4] - Investors are closely watching for updates on Blackwell chips, including potential defects and production delays, which impacted shares in the second half of 2024 [4] Financial Outlook and Analyst Expectations - NVIDIA is expected to report fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 26, with consensus estimates calling for $0 85 in non-GAAP EPS, marking 64% bottom-line growth [9] - For FY 2025, per-share earnings are expected to rise by 128% to $2 95, with 50% EPS growth projected for the following year [9] - Bank of America forecasts a 50% sales increase for NVIDIA in 2025, potentially making it the fastest top-line grower in the S&P 500 [9] Market Volatility and Investor Focus - NVIDIA's implied volatility heading into CES was 45%, down from peak levels of 70-80% in August and September 2024 [4] - Investors are bracing for potential volatility around key events, including CES and the J P Morgan Healthcare Conference, as well as the upcoming Q4 earnings report [4][10]

Company Overview - AbbVie Inc is a global biopharmaceutical company specializing in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of advanced medicines [1] - The company focuses primarily on immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and virology treatments, with a broad portfolio of prescription drugs addressing various medical conditions [1] Key Products - Humira (adalimumab), one of the world's best-selling drugs, is used to treat various autoimmune conditions; however, its patent expired in 2023 [1] - AbbVie is transitioning to a newer drug, Rinvoq, in the immunology space following the expiration of Humira's patent [1] - The company also develops treatments for various cancers and focuses on neurological and psychiatric conditions, with popular products including Botox and Allergan [1] Market Position and Technical Analysis - The stock is currently trading under the 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a phase of distribution [2] - A support level at $160 is identified as a risk point for the stock [4] - Recent buying activity has been noted since a low in November, suggesting potential interest from investors [3] - A pivotal price point at $172 is highlighted, with a move and hold above this level seen as compelling for initiating a position [7] - Real Motion analysis indicates a mean reversion to the buy side could be occurring, and leadership indicators suggest the stock is on support [5][6]