2025年6月3日（星期二）| 16:00 北京时间 网络研讨会 全球贸易摩擦加剧，美股波动性攀升！如何利用盘前、盘后及夜间交易（中国白天）把握先机？ 伴随关税战、供应链重构等地缘政治因素持续扰动全球市场，美股波动性显著增强。传统交易时段已 无法满足亚洲投资者对即时行情的需求。除了常规交易时段，美股的盘前、盘后及夜间交易正成为机 构与个人投资者捕捉额外流动性的关键窗口。 本次由 LSEG Academy主办的网络研讨会将深度解析美股多层次交易生态，介绍如何运用Blue Ocean等美股隔夜交易平台，实现全天候交易布局。 探索夜间交易新机遇 扫描二维码即刻报名 盘前交易（Pre-Market） 常规交易（Regular Hours） 盘后交易（Post-Market） 适合人群: 亚洲地区的美国股票市场交易者、配置者，尤其是希望在北京时间 8:00～16:00 之间交易 美股的投资者。 研讨会亮点 聚焦关税战与市场波动性 全面解析美股主要交易时段 1 2 3 隔夜交易（Overnight Trading）概览 如何在LSEG平台上获取Blue Ocean ATS隔夜交易时段流动性 发言嘉宾 Gang Chen ...

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 | 概要 | | --- | | 市场认为联储还会在7月减息的机率从四周前的76.4%跌至上周五的25.2%。9月息率维持不变的几 | | 率亦从6.2%升到43.8%。 | 美国评级被下调后，美国债券拍卖行清冷清，债券息率继续向上(价格下跌)。换作以前的情况，如 果美国经济衰退，会出现美股下跌，但美汇及美债受惠资金涌入而上升(这也是为什么笔者原本不 敢太过看好金价的原因，因为美国经济衰退会导致美汇强势)；不过由于近期曾出现美股债汇三杀 的现象，以前的投资常识可能有所改变，因此大家要随时做好两手准备。但以目前情况来看，金 价依然强势。 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | | ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of innovative wealth management solutions that provide market-leading data and actionable insights for wealth advisors and investors to make confident decisions [3][4][5] - It highlights the flexibility and intuitiveness of the wealth management workflow solutions, which enhance the efficiency and capabilities of wealth management advisors by providing real-time information [4][5] - The article invites readers to learn more about LSEG's wealth management offerings and mentions that registration for the event requires approval [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a seamless and secure account opening process, highlighting that while customer expectations are for a quick and easy experience, the underlying complexities involve significant costs and risks for companies [1]. Group 1: Account Opening Process - The account opening process is not just about converting potential customers but also reflects the company's values and how these values integrate with customer experience [1]. - Security is a recurring theme throughout the account opening process, affecting every aspect of the interaction [1]. - In 2023, payment fraud is estimated to have caused losses of approximately $48 billion for merchants, with expectations of continued increases by 2025 [1]. Group 2: Strategies to Prevent Fraud - Institutions can implement key strategies to prevent fraud and optimize the account opening experience, including real-time bank account verification and multi-layered authentication [2]. - Behavioral pattern analysis can help identify quality customers while excluding bad actors from the system [2]. - Strict customer due diligence (KYC) and business due diligence (KYB) processes should be combined with behavioral analysis to build a solid trust foundation throughout the customer lifecycle [2]. Group 3: Future Developments - The company is developing AI and machine learning-powered solutions to enhance the efficiency and speed of the account opening process [5]. - By integrating advanced tools into the account opening process, organizations can significantly improve data review efficiency and speed up information processing [5]. - The deployment of these solutions is expected to reduce abandonment rates during customer conversion and enhance the overall onboarding experience for both suppliers and customers [5].

本次活动由伦敦证券交易所集团主办，旨在促进金融交易市场的同业交流与合作，回顾2025年上半年交 易市场的重要事件，探讨当前宏观经济形势、政策影响及汇率走势，搭建一个同业间的交流平台。 活 动 信 息 日期: 2025年6月11日 (周三) 时间: 下午 5:00 - 7:00 地点: 北京 (*详细活动地址将在确认邮件中提供） 活 动 流 程 17:00-17:30 签到 17:30-17:50 开幕致辞与分享 17:50后 晚宴&自由交流 *具体活动议程可能调整，以当天实际安排为准 扫描上方二维码 注册报名参与 我们的产品：LSEG 交易解决方案 LSEG的交易解决方案可为您的所有交易需求提供高效的工作流支持，从交易前分析到交易执行，直到交易后合规性 和存档支持。 解决方案 了解我们的交易服务和解决方案 优势 交易解决方案能为您带来哪些优势？ 我们的多资产交易解决方案涵盖交易前后的工作流，提供全面的实时数据、高效执行和可靠的交易后服务，让您自信 地执行交易。我们的数据和专业知识可为大宗商品、外汇、债券、信贷和股票市场的关键决策制定和执行提供支持， 能够将全面的多资产交易能力整合到您的业务中。 合作伙伴 成为 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of wealth management solutions that leverage market-leading data and powerful digital tools to empower wealth advisors and investors in making confident decisions [4][5][6] - It highlights the innovative suite of wealth management solutions designed to create valuable and personalized experiences for users [4] - The wealth management workflow solutions are described as flexible and intuitive, providing advanced analytics and a customer-centric experience [6] Group 2 - The event features key speakers from LSEG and Amazon Cloud Technology, indicating a collaboration between industry experts to discuss financial digitalization solutions [1] - The article encourages readers to click on "Read More" for additional information about LSEG's wealth management offerings, suggesting a focus on expanding knowledge in this area [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, emphasizing the limitations of traditional polling methods and introducing an innovative approach using corporate executives' sentiments expressed during earnings calls to forecast election results [1][10]. Group 1: Political Polarization and Election Dynamics - The U.S. has experienced significant political polarization, with a solidification of party bases and a decrease in independent voters, making election outcomes heavily reliant on a few swing states [2]. - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system has led to controversial outcomes, as seen in the 2024 election where Trump won 312 electoral votes but only led the popular vote by 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Complexity of the Electoral College System - Variations in state election rules, such as mail-in ballot verification standards and counting timelines, complicate the prediction of election results [3]. - Historical anomalies, like the "Biden curve" in Pennsylvania during the 2020 election, highlight the unpredictability of the counting process [3]. Group 3: Impact of Unexpected Events and Media Influence - Political violence, scandals, and misinformation on social media can rapidly shift voter sentiment and influence election outcomes [4]. Group 4: Predictive Models and Their Limitations - Various models, such as the "White House Keys" model and Bayesian statistical models, have been developed to predict election outcomes, but they often lack accuracy and require extensive data [5][6][8]. - Historical trends, like the "Nevada bellwether," indicate that winning Nevada has often correlated with winning the presidency, as seen in Trump's 2.1% victory in the state [7]. Group 5: Issues with Traditional Polling - Polling suffers from sample bias and design flaws, leading to skewed results that may favor certain political parties [9]. - Manipulation and incentives in polling can distort data, affecting both local and national surveys [10]. Group 6: Alternative Predictive Methodology - The LSEG and MarketPsych's AI sentiment analysis tool, MarketPsych Transcript Analytics (MTA), offers a novel approach to predicting election outcomes by analyzing executives' sentiments during earnings calls [10][11]. - The tool captures subtle changes in tone and underlying messages, providing insights that may be more reliable than traditional polling data [10][22]. Group 7: Correlation Between Corporate Discussions and Election Outcomes - Analysis of earnings call transcripts reveals that the frequency of candidate mentions correlates with election results, with specific terms indicating support for either party [11][22]. - Industries such as energy and technology show distinct political leanings based on the discussions during earnings calls, reflecting their expectations of election outcomes [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of new AI predictive models is transforming the way investors approach global macroeconomic forecasting, providing more precise methods for achieving excess returns [2][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Data Management - Financial services are investing unprecedented resources in data management and AI to build more accurate macroeconomic forecasting models, as asset allocation decisions significantly impact portfolio performance [3][5]. - The complexity of global markets and the vast amount of data involved have historically made reliable macroeconomic forecasting a challenging goal for investors [3][5]. - The use of clean and accurate training data, along with techniques like Teacher forcing, enhances the accuracy of AI predictions by ensuring optimal information is used at each step of the training process [3][5]. Group 2: AI and Predictive Models - Many large buy-side and sell-side firms are increasing their investments in data management and AI resources, although traditional methods involving human resources for data handling are costly and difficult to scale [4][5]. - LSEG's global macroeconomic forecasting integrates advanced technology and AI reasoning, providing a range of indicators that help traders and asset managers make informed decisions [7]. - The predictive service can be delivered via APIs, allowing companies to trade based on forecasts before official government data releases, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7][12]. Group 3: Performance and Insights - LSEG's scalable, centralized data warehouse and automated framework support cutting-edge AI reasoning and automation, enhancing performance when data management and AI work in tandem [6]. - The integration of various data sources, including machine-readable news and point-in-time data, allows for the discovery of complex relationships and the generation of forward-looking economic indicators [5][12]. - Users can access predictive results and related data through a universal platform, enabling them to overlay this information onto existing portfolios for better identification of inter-data relationships [12].

Core Insights - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is gradually stabilizing following a reduction in gas supply through pipelines from Russia to Europe, with strong supply from the United States and expected capacity increases from Qatar later in the decade [1] - Demand for LNG in both Asian and European markets remains weak, and prices have not yet recovered to pre-2020 levels due to a sharp decline in global LNG demand from late 2021 to 2023 [1] - A seminar will analyze anticipated supply growth trends and identify LNG receiving terminal projects that are expected to reach financial closure and commence construction in the coming years [1] Group 1 - The LNG research team will present at the LSEG Academy webinar discussing the LNG supply and demand outlook for 2025 [1] - The seminar will delve into the impact of recent demand reductions on the LNG market and pricing [1] Group 2 - Key speakers at the seminar include Samuel Good, Shruti Shah, and Olumide Ajayi, all experts in LNG research at LSEG [2] - The agenda for the seminar includes discussions on supply growth and market dynamics [3]