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LSEG跟“宗” | 相对白银铂金现在是历史性最低水平 提防加息周期重启时间表
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-24 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the shifts in fund positions as reported by the CFTC, highlighting the recovery of net long positions in palladium and the significant rise in silver prices, while also addressing the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][27]. Group 1: Fund Positions and Market Trends - As of December 9, 2023, funds have increased their net long positions in various metals, with palladium finally recovering to a net long position after 164 weeks of being net short [2][7]. - Silver prices have surged by 132% this year, while the gold-silver ratio has dropped from 90.84 to 64.6, indicating a strong demand for physical silver [2][27]. - The net long position in silver has only increased by 66% year-to-date, suggesting that the rise in price is primarily driven by physical demand rather than speculative trading [2][27]. Group 2: Price Comparisons and Historical Context - Platinum has also seen a significant increase of 120% this year, but its valuation relative to silver is at a historical low, with one ounce of platinum currently able to exchange for only 29 ounces of silver [2][27]. - The article notes that historically, one ounce of platinum could be exchanged for over 60 ounces of silver, indicating that platinum is currently undervalued compared to silver [2][27]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Implications - The market is beginning to speculate on the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting to raise interest rates in 2027, despite current low probabilities [2][27]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding interest rate changes, as they could significantly impact the ongoing commodity bull market [2][27]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2024 has increased to 47%, and the probability for April has risen to 64.6%, indicating a shift in market expectations [26][27].
人工智能在云端如何塑造区域性的金融服务
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-23 06:03
亚太地区以创新为目标 亚太地区受访者对技术的变革潜力表现出强烈的乐观态度——他们相信企业正在抓住云端所带来的机 遇,以转型业务流程、分析能力等,这种信心同样转化为对人工智能的乐观预期。 例如,三分之二(66%)的亚太受访者表示,人工智能和机器学习是其机构在未来三年内预计将采用 云服务解决方案的首要应用场景——在本次调查涵盖的所有应用场景中排名首位。生成式人工智能是 亚太受访者最广泛探索的云端人工智能应用场景,占比达到61%。 伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)近期针对云端应用——包括云端人工智能应用——开展的调查显示, 受访者普遍认为这两项技术组合将深刻重塑金融服务行业。然而,各地区在当下对人工智能的应用方 式存在差异,这可能会影响其未来的全球竞争力。 在伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)近期开展的云端应用调查中,全球91%的受访者表示,其所在机构 已在人工智能项目中采用云服务,或计划在未来12个月内启用云服务。然而,在亚太、美洲和欧洲三 大区域中,云战略和人工智能规划各不相同。这些差异化的路径预计将在未来几年塑造各地区因人工 智能应用而产生的竞争优势。 此次调查共有来自全球的453位金融服务高管参与。其中近三分之二 ...
驾驭波动:企业司库主管如何增强韧性、分散流动性,并利用数据实现更智能的融资
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-22 06:02
Fabian Bulabois LSEG 固定收益分析产品管理总监 健康的投资者组合应包括养老金基金、共同基金、保险公司、主权财富基金,甚至零售债券持有人, 这样能够形成更稳定的需求结构。同时,它还能改善二级市场的流动性,使单一投资者更难积累足够 的影响力来推动破坏性变革。对于上市公司而言,这是一道抵御不受欢迎的激进主义的有力屏障,也 是审慎财务管理的明证。 探索私人信贷: 不确定时期的选择性与敏捷性 波动性对企业司库主管而言并不陌生。在经济周期似乎不断加快、全球冲击以空前速度传导至资本市 场的时代,确保可靠且具成本效益的融资并同时维持一个有韧性的投资者基础——这个挑战从未如此 严峻。 尽管公共债券市场仍是企业融资的支柱,但私人信贷的兴起为寻求灵活性和速度的企业司库主管提供 了新的途径。当公共市场出现错位或传统银行犹豫时,私人债务投资经理能够提供量身定制的解决方 案。 企业司库主管的角色已经发生了演变:他们如今是金融战略的重要设计者,肩负的期望不仅是寻找最 低的融资成本,还要预判风险、拓宽融资渠道,并与公司高管层和董事会成员就风险敞口、机遇与威 胁进行透明沟通。 现代融资挑战:不仅仅是发行债券 过去,只需与少 ...
忽视悲观——为什么COP30是一次成功
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-19 06:03
Jaakko Kooroshy LSEG 全球可持续投资研究主管 Kieran Brophy LSEG 主权气候研究负责人 2025年一直被视为全球气候谈判的关键节点。 早在2015年各国齐聚巴黎参加 COP21时,就已确定 2025年将成为各国提交新的、更具雄心的减排承诺的年份,这些承诺将涵盖2030年之后的时期。 这些国家自主贡献(NDCs)才是市场——以及气候变化——最为关注的核心。 在LSEG,我们一直 密切追踪NDCs,因为它们是迄今为止最清晰的信号,显示出政策制定者对本国2030年后排放路径的 设想。它们塑造了投资者和企业所面临的转型风险环境,并最终在整体上决定全球排放轨迹,从而成 为衡量未来物理风险的关键。 然而,这一年对国家自主贡献(NDCs)来说开局颇为艰难。 1 月,美国——全球第二大排放国和世 界最大经济体——表示将退出《巴黎协定》。2 月,95%的签署方未能按期提交新的目标;到8月 底,这一比例仍高达85%。换句话说,距离COP30仅剩三个月时,NDC进程几乎濒临失败。 不过,在COP30前的八周里出现了迟来的反弹 ——这一事实似乎令人困惑地被记者和与会代表忽视 了。三分之二的国家已经 ...
LCH 与 FMX 期货交易所合作推出 LCH Listed Rates 清算服务
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-18 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of LCH Listed Rates clearing service in collaboration with FMX, aimed at enhancing margin efficiency and operational effectiveness for members and clients in both over-the-counter and exchange-traded derivatives markets [2]. Group 1: LCH Listed Rates Clearing Service - The LCH Listed Rates clearing service facilitates the clearing of U.S. SOFR and Treasury futures, allowing for margin offsets with SwapClear cleared interest rate swap positions, thereby reducing margin requirements and counterparty risk [2]. - This service aims to create a more resilient and liquid U.S. derivatives market by providing a diverse range of options [3]. - The integration of LCH's trusted clearing infrastructure with the advanced technology of the LSEG ecosystem and BGC Group sets a new standard for the industry [4]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Risk Management - The service connects listed interest rate product portfolios with a deep pool of over-the-counter interest rate liquidity, offering margin advantages and enabling the construction of safer and more efficient interest rate swap portfolios [5]. - The automated portfolio margining service operates daily with minimal manual intervention, quickly identifying optimization opportunities and risk reduction across the entire portfolio [5]. - LCH employs a robust and mature risk management framework that adheres to the highest standards [6]. Group 3: LSEG Post-Trade Services - LSEG's post-trade services support both clearing and bilateral markets, continuously innovating to meet evolving market conditions [12]. - The services aim to enhance operational efficiency and achieve capital and cost savings through standardized workflows and optimized processes [15]. - LSEG's comprehensive post-trade ecosystem is built on proven expertise and a commitment to collaborative client engagement [12].
LSEG跟“宗” | 美国或明年3/4月才再降息 Warsh为下任联储主席几率急升
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-17 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve and the impact on investment strategies for precious metals [2][27]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions is only updated until November 18 [2]. - The market perceives a 24.4% chance of a rate cut in January, 44% in March, and 63% in April, prompting investors to consider their strategies during the interim period [2][27]. - The next potential Federal Reserve chairpersons, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, both support further rate cuts, but Warsh advocates for a balance sheet reduction that could negatively impact cryptocurrencies and stock markets, potentially pressuring gold prices [2][27]. Group 2: Fund Positions in Precious Metals - As of November 18, managed net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 7.9%, while silver and platinum saw declines of 11.1% and 13.8%, respectively [3]. - Year-to-date, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold have dropped by 47%, while silver has increased by 24% [8][9]. - The overall sentiment indicates a significant reduction in long positions across various metals, with a notable increase in short positions for metals other than gold [7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has decreased by 3.3% recently, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [20]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was at 69.38, down 3.6% week-over-week, reflecting a 23.6% decline year-to-date [25]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions if inflation pressures resurface while interest rates are being cut [28]. - The complexity of the market dynamics necessitates close monitoring of the new chairperson's statements for clearer expectations regarding asset prices [27].
运营阿尔法:超越电子表格以获取竞争优势
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-16 06:02
Nick Straatsma LSEG AlphaDesk 高级产品经理 在当今市场中,电子表格正在拖累投资公司。我们的洞察探讨了资产管理人如何通过用集成的投资组 合与订单管理系统(P/OMS)取代人工、易出错的工作流程,从而释放"运营阿尔法"。 在追求阿尔法的过程中,投资公司自然而然地专注于复杂的策略、严谨的研究和市场洞察。然而,对 相当多的资产管理人而言,业绩表现中最显著的拖累并非来自市场,而是源自他们自身的运营流程。 造成这种摩擦的往往是无处不在的电子表格——这一工具虽然灵活,但当其被用作机构投资组合管理 的核心时,却在效率、可扩展性和风险管理方面制造了天花板。 依赖拼凑的电子表格和人工流程引入了持续性的运营风险,而这一风险已不容忽视。在市场复杂性不 断增加、监管审查日益严格以及客户需求不断提升的环境下,那些未能投资于稳健运营基础设施的公 司,不仅仅是在冒低效的风险,更是在主动危及自身的竞争力与成长能力。从这些脆弱的人工系统转 向集成的投资组合与订单管理系统(P/OMS),已不再是奢侈选择,而是战略上的必然要求。 现状的隐性成本 电子表格的吸引力在于其熟悉度和灵活性。然而,这种灵活性代价高昂,带来了贯穿 ...
与 LSEG 交易后部门一起重构监管报告框架
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-15 06:03
Overview - The article emphasizes the importance and challenges of meeting regulatory requirements, highlighting that proper management can transform regulatory work into a powerful tool [3] - LSEG's post-trade regulatory reporting solutions help companies reduce operational and regulatory risks while enhancing efficiency through streamlined reporting and data analysis [3][12] Advantages - Proactive Regulatory Reporting: Companies can stay updated on regulatory changes and enhance team skills by engaging with experts [4] - Data Insights: Transforming data into actionable insights and clearly communicating them to business units [4] - Efficient Workflows: Automation of workflows and simplified onboarding processes to eliminate resource constraints [4] - Resource Reallocation: Budget previously allocated for regulatory penalties can be redirected to more meaningful business areas [4] - Strategic Regulation: Transforming process management into strategic thinking to drive business growth [4] - Trusted Infrastructure: LSEG's reliable infrastructure supports the reporting of billions of transactions annually [4] Regulatory Reporting Solutions - The article discusses how regulatory reporting solutions can support businesses in navigating compliance requirements effectively [6][12] Post-Trade Services - LSEG's post-trade services support both cleared and bilateral markets, continuously innovating to adapt to changing conditions [12] - The services aim to enhance operational efficiency and achieve capital and cost savings [14]
黄金在2025年的迅猛上涨:全球不确定性下的避风港
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-12 06:02
Erwan Jacob LSEG 宏观分析师 黄金在2025年成为焦点,上涨50%,表现超过主要资产类别。本篇洞察探讨了为何黄金在全球经济不 确定性、央行买入以及地缘政治紧张局势下,成为终极避风港。以下是推动这一上涨的关键因素: 黄金在2025年飙升50% ,投资者在全球经济和地缘政治不确定性中寻求安全。 央行买入和美联储宽松 推动黄金迎来数十年来最强劲的上涨。 在 货币承压、市场波动 的背景下,黄金在2025年闪耀地成为终极避风港。 今年,黄金迎来自1979年以来最强劲的上涨,当时伊朗革命曾扰乱全球经济。自2025年初以来,黄 金现货价格已上涨50%,表现超过主要资产类别。美国银行(Bank of America)的数据表明,这一势头 可能会延续,驱动力来自央行的结构性需求以及美国联邦储备委员会启动的货币宽松。 美联储的货币政策放松发生在一个关键时刻:就业数据走弱而通胀依然顽固——美国在9月失去了3.2 万个工作岗位。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔宣布的政策转向反映了更广泛的经济放缓,因为贸易 争端的影响仍在持续。传统上,美国国债和美元一直被视为避风港,但在美联储面临持续挑战以及美 国贸易政策全球再平衡的背景 ...
LSEG出席陆家嘴金融沙龙:以AI+数据战略共筑上海国际金融中心未来
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-12-11 06:02
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of data-driven financial information services and risk management in the context of building Shanghai as a global financial center, highlighting the role of advanced technologies like AI and cloud computing in enhancing financial services and risk management systems [1][7]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 40th "Lujiazui Financial Salon" was held in Shanghai, focusing on "Global Financial Center Construction - Data-Driven Financial Information Services and Risk Management" [1]. - The event gathered experts from various fields, including financial infrastructure, international financial information platforms, and local fintech companies, to discuss the transformation of the global financial landscape [1]. Group 2: LSEG's Role and Contributions - LSEG covers over 70 million financial products globally, connects more than 500 exchanges, and possesses over 4 petabytes of historical data, including 6 million economic indicators across various dimensions such as market sentiment analysis and ESG [3]. - LSEG aims to leverage high-quality data to drive AI applications in risk management, data extraction, customer service operations, and innovative product development, supporting the intelligent transformation of financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 3: Tradeweb's Insights - Tradeweb's daily trading volume reaches $2.9 trillion, providing cross-asset trading and data services that enhance transaction execution efficiency for institutions [3]. - The integration of electronic trading and AI is highlighted as a means to improve cross-border trading efficiency and transparency, facilitating data-driven decision-making [5]. Group 4: Expert Discussions - Experts unanimously agree that data is the cornerstone for Shanghai's development as a global financial center, with high-quality, standardized, and secure financial data being crucial for market efficiency and risk management [7]. - The experiences of mature markets like London and New York are suggested as references for Shanghai in building a financial information hub [7]. Group 5: LSEG's Global Presence - LSEG is a leading global financial market infrastructure and data provider, operating across Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and emerging markets [9]. - The company’s capabilities span data, indices, capital formation, trading execution, clearing, and risk management, supporting clients in achieving sustainable growth [8].