作者： Adam J. Baron LSEG 大数据及定量研究总监 编译： 凌聿丰 LSEG 亚太区高级客户学习经理 原文发布于 2021 年 5 月 线性回归分析显示，中心度z得分与FY1 ROA之间存在显著正相关关系（p值<0.05），表明随着中心 度提升，FY1 ROA也相应提高。 | | coef | std err | | P>Itl | [0.025 | 0.975] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | const | -0.0046 | 0.001 | -4.115 | 0.000 | -0.007 | -0.002 | | eigen_centrality_zscore | 0.0033 | 0.001 | 2.897 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 值得注意的是，虽然我们观察到显著的相关性，但需谨慎解读结论。这并不能证明通过增加人脉广泛 的董事就能提升FY1 ROA ， 甚至FY1是否是最佳的观测时段也值得商榷。但这一发现确实揭示了潜 在关联，值得进一步探究。 今年早些时候，LSEG® StarMine® 团队针 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy due to expanding trade and budget deficits, which are leading to a steeper yield curve and weakening credit conditions [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The US GDP is projected to contract by 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced government spending, although this is partially offset by rising consumer spending and exports [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, imports surged by 41.3% before tariffs were fully implemented, with March imports reaching $346 billion and the trade deficit widening to $163 billion [1][3]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index fell by 9% from March to April 2025, yet job creation exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Despite the resilience of the job market, the implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact employment conditions [2]. Trade Deficit Dynamics - The overall trade deficit has increased since the implementation of tariffs, despite a reduction in the trade deficit with China during Trump's first term [2][4]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from supply chain shifts, increasing their trade surplus with the US [2]. Credit and Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing federal debt, with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widening by 20 basis points [3][4]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-month high amid concerns over fiscal sustainability and trade tensions [3][5]. Future Projections - The tax reform bill passed by the House is expected to add $3.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, potentially pushing the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP in the coming years [5]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 8% to 10% over the four-year term, with long-term bond yields expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 6% in the coming years [6].

Core Insights - LSEG Post-Trade Solutions collaborates with Rhisco Group to enhance quantitative capabilities and expand service coverage in Mexico and the broader LATAM market [1] - The partnership aims to create innovative solutions tailored for clients in the region and develop new strategies and technologies to benefit the financial industry as a whole [1] - A significant outcome of this collaboration is the successful implementation of an XVA valuation and regulatory reporting platform for Banca Mifel, addressing new regulatory requirements from the Mexican central bank [1][2] Summary by Sections Collaboration and Objectives - The partnership combines LSEG's global experience with Rhisco's regional expertise to provide enhanced services [1] - The goal is to deliver innovative solutions and improve service efficiency for both regional and global clients [1] Implementation and Impact - The XVA platform was successfully deployed for Banca Mifel, enabling comprehensive valuation capabilities at various levels [2] - Banca Mifel's position in the local derivatives market is strengthened, allowing for business expansion and compliance with advanced XVA and reporting technologies [2] Future Plans - LSEG Post-Trade Solutions plans to deepen its presence in major LATAM markets, focusing on cost-effective risk analysis solutions that comply with local regulations [2] - Future initiatives include hosting industry events to foster collaboration and providing Spanish-language documentation and consulting services to enhance local accessibility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic data and Federal Reserve meetings on interest rate expectations and commodity markets, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, as well as the sentiment in the futures market regarding these precious metals [2][24][25]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% in July, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating the impact of tariffs on local inflation [2][23]. - The Federal Reserve's internal meeting records revealed that only two members advocated for interest rate cuts, while others prioritized controlling inflation over employment [2][23]. - Market sentiment suggests a strong expectation for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood of maintaining this stance into October depending on upcoming economic data [2][24]. Group 2: Futures Market Sentiment - As of August 19, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 8.1% to 441 tons, marking the lowest level in six weeks, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 1.9% to 4,477 tons [3][6]. - The article notes that the correlation between gold prices and silver is strong, with silver prices having increased by 29.4% year-to-date [6][9]. - The platinum market saw a slight decrease in net long positions, while palladium remains in a significant net short position, indicating ongoing challenges for these metals [7][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio fell to 14.094X, reflecting a 26.4% decline this year, suggesting that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [18][24]. - The article highlights the growing importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations in investment decisions, impacting the performance of mining stocks relative to commodities [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the gold-silver ratio as a sentiment indicator, with the current ratio at 86.848, down 1.1% week-over-week [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates while facing rising inflation presents a significant challenge for future monetary policy [25]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high post-rate cuts, the Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions regarding interest rates in the coming months [25].

Core Viewpoint - The APPEC (Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference) aims to enhance information sharing and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific energy market, focusing on "energy security" and "sustainable development" for the 2025 conference, which will strengthen the region's role in global energy transition [1]. Event Information - The LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) will host the "China Energy Futures Seminar" during the APPEC 2025, focusing on energy derivatives markets and international cooperation [1]. - The seminar will analyze the impact of recent global events on the market, discussing how geopolitical instability and macroeconomic uncertainty shape trends in the oil and petrochemical markets [1]. Conference Schedule - Date: September 10, 2025 [3] - Time: 14:00 - 17:00 [3] - Location: LSEG Singapore Office, One Raffles Quay, North Tower, 28th floor, Singapore [3] - Language: English [3] Agenda Overview First Session: Energy Market Outlook - Welcome Address by Victor Rubtsov, LSEG [4]. - Presentation on "Oil Market: Challenges and Opportunities" by Emril Jamil, LSEG [4]. - Discussion on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Asian petrochemical industry and how China can benefit, led by Sok Peng Chua, LSEG [5]. Second Session: China Futures Market - Presentation on the opening process of the Chinese futures market by Dong Siqi, Shanghai Futures Exchange [6]. - Discussion on participation in Dalian Commodity Exchange through Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) pathways by Wu Xiaocheng, Dalian Commodity Exchange [6]. - Overview of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange market and new open products by Ding Hanlin, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [6]. - Expert discussion involving representatives from major Chinese futures exchanges [6].

Core Viewpoint - The MBS market has been experiencing continuous changes since 2025, influenced by multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, high interest rate environment, and the evolving structure of regional markets. Understanding the dynamics of the Agency RMBS market is crucial for identifying pressures and opportunities in demand and refinancing activities [1]. Group 1: Event Background - The MBS market is affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and high interest rates, leading to a need for understanding the dynamics of Agency RMBS [1]. - The upcoming webinar hosted by LSEG Yield Book will cover key policy changes, trends in issuance and prepayment, and the outlook for the MBS market [1]. Group 2: Event Information - The event is scheduled for September 4, 2025, from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM, and will be held online via Tencent [2]. - The agenda includes presentations on mortgage market dynamics, MBS trading practices, and an overview of prepayment models [2]. Group 3: Speakers - Hui Ding, the head of RMBS research and modeling at LSEG, has nearly 20 years of experience in the securitization industry [6]. - Helen Zhang, responsible for research model development at LSEG, has a background in technology and finance, particularly in securitized products [7]. - Irene Shi, a senior RMBS researcher at LSEG, focuses on prepayment modeling and mortgage data analysis [8]. Group 4: Yield Book Overview - Yield Book has been a reliable source for fixed income analysis for 35 years, offering extensive features for in-depth security and portfolio analysis [10]. - The platform utilizes advanced cloud architecture and data science to provide unique analytical insights and opportunities for differentiation [14]. - Yield Book's solutions cover a wide range of asset classes and are supported by top-tier expertise in global financial markets [20].

Group 1 - Bank of China Hong Kong has become the latest member of LCH ForexClear, marking a significant step in enhancing market access and improving foreign exchange clearing efficiency [1] - This membership is notable as it is the first Chinese member registered in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region [1] - The partnership is expected to deepen collaboration and achieve strong growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2 - LSEG offers a range of innovative post-trade risk management, optimization, and regulatory solutions aimed at improving operational efficiency and achieving capital and cost savings [6][10] - The post-trade services support both cleared and bilateral markets, continuously innovating in response to changing conditions [7] - LSEG's services include integrated risk management tools, clearing services through LCH, portfolio optimization via Quantile, and enhanced efficiency in bilateral trading through SwapAgent [11][12][13][14]

Core Insights - A recent LSEG survey indicates that a majority of global financial services firms have adjusted or updated their cloud strategies in response to data privacy, security, and sovereignty regulatory requirements [1][2] - Business resilience has emerged as a common priority for both companies and regulators, reflecting a shared goal of enhancing cloud stability and reducing service disruptions [2][3] Group 1: Cloud Strategy Adjustments - 84% of respondents reported making adjustments to their cloud strategies due to regulatory requirements, with over a quarter (28%) implementing extensive changes [2] - The survey included 453 executives from the financial services industry across 12 countries, with 63% being key decision-makers in financial market data and IT solutions [2] Group 2: Business Resilience - 30% of respondents experienced business interruptions due to cloud services in the past year, highlighting the importance of resilience and security in evaluating cloud strategy value [3] - In the EMEA region, 95% of respondents consider business resilience "very important" (61%) or "critical" (34%) when selecting cloud service providers [3] Group 3: Regional Variations - The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region has the highest business interruption rate at 38%, with 51% of respondents indicating that resilience is a key metric for assessing cloud strategy ROI [3][4] - Regulatory bodies in the APAC region are beginning to emphasize business resilience, with several agencies conducting crisis management tabletop exercises [5] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - One-third (33%) of financial institutions indicated that regulatory changes are affecting their cloud strategies, particularly in areas like migration and AI [6] - 59% of respondents affected by data privacy and security regulations are adopting hybrid cloud strategies, while 56% are implementing multi-cloud strategies [6] Group 5: Investment Return and Compliance - Regulatory frameworks vary by region, with 33% of APAC respondents needing to make extensive adjustments to their cloud strategies due to regulatory requirements, compared to 24% in EMEA [8] - In the Americas, 33% of respondents cited regulatory changes as the primary barrier to achieving expected ROI from their cloud strategies [8][9] Group 6: Overall Impact - Overall, cloud regulations are influencing the expected ROI from cloud investments across regions, although some financial services firms recognize that compliance can enhance business resilience [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the intertwining of tariff policies and Trade-Based Money Laundering (TBML) risks in the context of evolving global trade dynamics and increasing geopolitical risks, presenting new compliance challenges for businesses [1] - A webinar is announced to explore proactive and adaptive compliance strategies, emphasizing the role of financial institutions in identifying and addressing emerging risks [1] Event Information - Date: August 26, 2025 (Tuesday) - Time: 15:30 Beijing Time [2] Agenda Overview - Policy Background Analysis: Dynamics and trends of global tariff conflicts in 2025 [4] - TBML Risk Analysis: Basic concepts and typical operational methods of Trade-Based Money Laundering [4] - Relationship Between Tariffs and Money Laundering: How tariff policies influence TBML risks [4] - Role and Responsibility of Financial Institutions: Importance of this topic for compliance professionals [4] Company Profiles - Yolanda Shi: Customer Success Manager at LSEG, responsible for data integration of risk compliance products and implementation of screening platform projects [5] - Frank Ling: Senior Customer Learning Manager at LSEG, provides training and consulting on financial information solutions [6] World-Check Overview - World-Check has been a trusted source for over 20 years, aiding companies in fulfilling KYC and third-party due diligence screening obligations [7][10] - The database offers accurate and structured information to help financial institutions comply with regulations related to anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing, and anti-corruption [8][10] Data Coverage - World-Check covers various categories including politically exposed persons (PEPs), state-owned entities, global sanctions lists, and negative media [12][13] - The database includes over 4 million highly structured records to assist in due diligence obligations and identify potential financial crime activities [14]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center, known as "Zhejiang Dazong," has evolved into a leading local trading venue in China, focusing on national strategies and compliance while enhancing its role in the allocation of bulk commodity resources [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Collaboration - Established in May 2015, Zhejiang Dazong is a significant platform for the allocation of bulk commodity resources and a key promoter of the integrated oil and gas trading market in the Yangtze River Delta [1]. - Since August 2023, Zhejiang Dazong has deepened its collaboration with the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) in areas such as data, products, and conferences, with its price index products now available on the LSEG platform [1]. - The launch of a dedicated page on the LSEG Workspace financial terminal in January 2024 will provide global users with efficient access to key index product information, enhancing the international dissemination of Chinese oil and gas prices [1][2]. Group 2: Price Index Products - The "Zhoushan Price," officially known as "China Zhoushan Fuel Oil Bonded Ship Supply Quotation," is the first RMB quotation product in the domestic bonded ship fuel market based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange prices, becoming a global benchmark [2]. - The "LNG Price" reflects the actual supply and demand situation in Zhejiang Province's LNG market, while the "Storage Price" includes comprehensive storage prices and available commercial storage capacity in Zhoushan, aiding stakeholders in the energy and chemical storage market [2]. - Zhejiang Dazong is committed to continuously improving its price index system and enhancing international cooperation to strengthen its role in the allocation of bulk commodity resources [2]. Group 3: Price Index Codes - The following are the price index codes available for users to access on the LSEG Workspace terminal: - 0ZMELSFBA: China Zhoushan Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Bonded Ship Supply Quotation (Daily) - 0ZMEHSFBA: China Zhoushan High Sulfur Fuel Oil Bonded Ship Supply Quotation (Daily) - 0ZMELNGP: Zhejiang Region LNG Consumption Price (Daily) - 0ZMEWCPI: Zhoushan Oil Product Storage Comprehensive Price Index (Monthly) - 0ZMEWCPST: Zhoushan Storage Comprehensive Price (Short-term 1-3 months) (Monthly) - 0ZMEWCPLT: Zhoushan Storage Comprehensive Price (Long-term 6-12 months) (Monthly) - 0ZMEWCPSTG: Zhoushan Available Commercial Storage Capacity (Monthly) [4].