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活动报名|LSEG北京交易行业交流会
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-23 03:34
本次活动由伦敦证券交易所集团主办,旨在促进金融交易市场的同业交流与合作,回顾2025年上半年交 易市场的重要事件,探讨当前宏观经济形势、政策影响及汇率走势,搭建一个同业间的交流平台。 活 动 信 息 日期: 2025年6月11日 (周三) 时间: 下午 5:00 - 7:00 地点: 北京 (*详细活动地址将在确认邮件中提供) 活 动 流 程 17:00-17:30 签到 17:30-17:50 开幕致辞与分享 17:50后 晚宴&自由交流 *具体活动议程可能调整,以当天实际安排为准 扫描上方二维码 注册报名参与 我们的产品:LSEG 交易解决方案 LSEG的交易解决方案可为您的所有交易需求提供高效的工作流支持,从交易前分析到交易执行,直到交易后合规性 和存档支持。 解决方案 了解我们的交易服务和解决方案 优势 交易解决方案能为您带来哪些优势? 我们的多资产交易解决方案涵盖交易前后的工作流,提供全面的实时数据、高效执行和可靠的交易后服务,让您自信 地执行交易。我们的数据和专业知识可为大宗商品、外汇、债券、信贷和股票市场的关键决策制定和执行提供支持, 能够将全面的多资产交易能力整合到您的业务中。 合作伙伴 成为 ...
杭州线下活动邀请 | 智能金融:探索AI与数据科技的创新应用
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-22 08:21
发言嘉宾 Dr. Arman Sahovic 亚太区Front Office解决方案总监 LSEG Jack Wong 亚太区资深金融数字化解决方案顾问 LSEG 邓思宇(主持人) 中国区金融数字化解决方案顾问 LSEG 活动合作方 胡则昌 数据金融产品负责人, AI产品经理 杭州中焯 赵玉成 中国区合作伙伴总监 LSEG 王秋艳 金融行业专家 亚马逊 云科技 (*报名需审核,报名结果以通知邮件为准) 灵活、直观的解决方案,提供市场领先的数据、高级分析和以客户为中心的体验。 我们的产品:财富管理解决方案 欢迎点击 "阅读原文" ,了解关于 LSEG 财富管理 的更多资讯! 来探索有洞见的数字化工具和功能,帮助财富管理顾问实时获取资讯,更高效提升工作能力。 即刻扫码报名参会 财富管理工作流程解决方案 市场领先的数据、强大的数字工具和切实可行的洞察让财富顾问和投资者都能自信地做出决策。利用我们创新的财富管 理解决方案套件,打造有价值的、个性化的体验。 财富管理工作流程解决方案 ...
揭秘财报会议中的选举密码:如何用AI工具预测美国总统大选结果
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-22 08:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, emphasizing the limitations of traditional polling methods and introducing an innovative approach using corporate executives' sentiments expressed during earnings calls to forecast election results [1][10]. Group 1: Political Polarization and Election Dynamics - The U.S. has experienced significant political polarization, with a solidification of party bases and a decrease in independent voters, making election outcomes heavily reliant on a few swing states [2]. - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system has led to controversial outcomes, as seen in the 2024 election where Trump won 312 electoral votes but only led the popular vote by 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Complexity of the Electoral College System - Variations in state election rules, such as mail-in ballot verification standards and counting timelines, complicate the prediction of election results [3]. - Historical anomalies, like the "Biden curve" in Pennsylvania during the 2020 election, highlight the unpredictability of the counting process [3]. Group 3: Impact of Unexpected Events and Media Influence - Political violence, scandals, and misinformation on social media can rapidly shift voter sentiment and influence election outcomes [4]. Group 4: Predictive Models and Their Limitations - Various models, such as the "White House Keys" model and Bayesian statistical models, have been developed to predict election outcomes, but they often lack accuracy and require extensive data [5][6][8]. - Historical trends, like the "Nevada bellwether," indicate that winning Nevada has often correlated with winning the presidency, as seen in Trump's 2.1% victory in the state [7]. Group 5: Issues with Traditional Polling - Polling suffers from sample bias and design flaws, leading to skewed results that may favor certain political parties [9]. - Manipulation and incentives in polling can distort data, affecting both local and national surveys [10]. Group 6: Alternative Predictive Methodology - The LSEG and MarketPsych's AI sentiment analysis tool, MarketPsych Transcript Analytics (MTA), offers a novel approach to predicting election outcomes by analyzing executives' sentiments during earnings calls [10][11]. - The tool captures subtle changes in tone and underlying messages, providing insights that may be more reliable than traditional polling data [10][22]. Group 7: Correlation Between Corporate Discussions and Election Outcomes - Analysis of earnings call transcripts reveals that the frequency of candidate mentions correlates with election results, with specific terms indicating support for either party [11][22]. - Industries such as energy and technology show distinct political leanings based on the discussions during earnings calls, reflecting their expectations of election outcomes [11].
LSEG跟“宗” | 市场认为美国或9月才减息 乐观情绪哪来的底气
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-21 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].
强大的新型宏观预测指标助力超额收益
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-20 05:23
Nicole Allen LSEG 文本分析总监 利用全球宏观经济预测来指导固定收益、外汇以及股票市场的头寸配置,一直是投资者面临的最棘手难题之 一。然而,随着新型人工智能预测模型的出现,这一局面正在迅速发生转变。这些模型需要稳健强大的数据 管理流程以及合适的训练过程作为支撑。而 LSEG全球宏观经济预测,为宏观预测提供了更为精细、精准的 方法,为获取超额收益创造了新的机会。 在金融服务领域,针对交易与投资的分析,在数据和技术方面的投入规模已达到前所未有的水平。 日益复杂的模型不仅需要更多的数据,还需具备更优质的数据管理能力。对于投资者而言,为行业和资产配 置构建可靠的宏观经济预测,都是其长期以来追求的终极目标,因为这会对投资组合的表现产生重大影响。 在机器学习技术问世之前,鉴于全球市场极端复杂,且涉及的数据量极为庞大,这一目标似乎遥不可及。 宏观信息方面缺乏专业知识和资源的投资公司带来了新的超额收益机会,并使其能够在外汇、固定收益和股 票市场做出更明智的交易和投资组合层面的决策。 夯实基础 使用干净且真实的训练数据,在训练过程中运用例如Teacher forcing等技术,能够纠正AI在推理过程中的错 误。 ...
活动报名倒计时|LNG线上研讨会
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-20 05:23
Core Insights - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is gradually stabilizing following a reduction in gas supply through pipelines from Russia to Europe, with strong supply from the United States and expected capacity increases from Qatar later in the decade [1] - Demand for LNG in both Asian and European markets remains weak, and prices have not yet recovered to pre-2020 levels due to a sharp decline in global LNG demand from late 2021 to 2023 [1] - A seminar will analyze anticipated supply growth trends and identify LNG receiving terminal projects that are expected to reach financial closure and commence construction in the coming years [1] Group 1 - The LNG research team will present at the LSEG Academy webinar discussing the LNG supply and demand outlook for 2025 [1] - The seminar will delve into the impact of recent demand reductions on the LNG market and pricing [1] Group 2 - Key speakers at the seminar include Samuel Good, Shruti Shah, and Olumide Ajayi, all experts in LNG research at LSEG [2] - The agenda for the seminar includes discussions on supply growth and market dynamics [3]
利用人工智能挖掘财报会议纪要中的投资与风险管理机遇
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-19 03:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative approach of using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings call transcripts, enabling analysts to assess the sentiment of CEOs regarding future business outlooks and their potential impact on stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Earnings Call Analysis - LSEG MarketPsych Transcript Analytics integrates LSEG's data resources with MarketPsych's natural language processing (NLP) capabilities, providing sentiment analysis and thematic data for over 16,000 publicly listed companies [2][3]. - The solution identifies over 1,000 themes and 4,000 event types within earnings call transcripts, allowing for detailed sentiment classification and analysis [3][4]. Group 2: Application Scenarios - Companies with high sentiment scores in earnings calls tend to outperform those with lower scores in the following month, indicating a correlation between CEO sentiment and stock performance [6]. - The built-in ESG sentiment classifier can dynamically monitor ESG-related sentiments, providing risk warnings for companies with low ESG sentiment scores [6][7]. - The analysis system can also quantify the frequency and sentiment of key negative terms mentioned by executives, aiding in risk management and credit risk monitoring [7].
2025年全球制裁,将何去何从?
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-16 02:57
截至2025年3月,需要关注的关键数据: 除了上述这些关键数据外,我们的报告还针对部分选定子指数的变动情况提供了更多细节,并指出" 多个制 裁机构所呈现出的共同趋势是:与一年前相比,制裁通胀幅度不仅相对温和,而且增速也有所放缓 "。 尽管如此,LSEG持续追踪的一系列其他"宏观趋势"似乎仍将持续,甚至可能进一步加剧。 报告得出结论,在可预见的未来,不确定性将成为制裁格局的一个关键性特征。报告还指出,制裁通胀现象 或将于2025年结束,但包括不确定性在内的诸多其他全球宏观趋势似乎"将持续,甚至有可能进一步加 剧"。 " 全球制裁指数( GSI )于 2022 年正式推出,该指数聚焦于制裁通胀现象,即全球范围内受制裁人数持续且快 速的增长,助您更深入地理解制裁规模扩张所带来的影响。 " 为何制裁格局的潜在变化至关重要?其影响可能极为深远,以不同方式影响着您的机构,其中包括合规成本 攀升,和对专业领域知识储备的迫切需求等方面。 关键数据要点 Michael Meadon LSEG 风险情报亚太区总监 我们最新发布的全球制裁报告深入剖析了制裁通胀的预期变动情况,以及其它将影响并塑造今年风险态势的 重大宏观趋势。 我们 ...
活动邀请 | 金属贸易格局研讨会
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-14 04:59
此次活动将汇集金属产业链与贸易领域的权威人士,LSEG期待各位客户及行业伙伴莅临交流,共同 探讨行业如何通过战略调整与创新实践,在重大变革中实现可持续发展。 核心议题 活动议程 当前,地缘政治风险与经济割裂态势正重塑全球大宗商品市场格局,企业需精准预判市场趋势,才能 在变革中抢占先机。 LSEG将在LME亚洲周期间,于2025年5月19日举办高规格行业研讨会,同时得到LME的大力支持。 本次论坛将聚焦 美国关税政策 、 全球供应链韧性 及 亚洲市场角色升级 三大议题,深度解析金属市 场的核心驱动力、技术创新路径与潜在增长空间。 15:00 嘉宾注册、签到 15:30 开幕致辞 活动正式开始 17:00 自由交流 演讲嘉宾 Bruce Alway LSEG 金属研究总监 贸易壁垒与地缘政治如何重构过渡金属市场价值链 去全球化趋势下的基础金属市场战略前瞻 日期: 2025年5月19日(星期一) 时间: 15:00 - 19:00 地点: 香港中环花园道3号,工商银行大厦18层,LSEG香港办公室 Dr. Guy Wolf Marex Financials 全球市场分析主管 长按上方二维码 即刻报名参会 我们的产品 ...
LSEG跟“宗” | 美股希望越大失望越大 美期货市场基金继续减少黄金多头
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-05-13 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, highlighting the decline in long positions for most metals except copper and palladium, and the implications of U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies on these markets [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of last Tuesday, all U.S. precious metal futures saw a decrease in fund long positions, with only copper and palladium continuing to rise [2][7]. - The gold fund long positions fell by 5% week-over-week, marking a continuous decline for seven weeks, while the net long position dropped to 349 tons, the lowest in 62 weeks [7]. - Silver's fund long positions increased by 2%, but the net long position decreased to 4,704 tons, maintaining a net long position for 62 weeks [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July dropped from 76.4% to 50.1%, while the probability of maintaining the rate in September increased from 6.2% to 12.6% [2][23]. - Concerns are raised about persistent inflation in April and May, which could lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize dollar stability over economic support [24]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high, the Fed may not cut rates as anticipated, potentially leading to higher rates in the future [24][26]. Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 30.7%, while fund long positions have decreased by 24.7% [7]. - The article notes that the copper market is facing challenges due to economic recession fears, despite general optimism among experts [18]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has declined, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Predictions - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical risks to increase, particularly with the upcoming U.S. elections and the implications for monetary policy [25]. - It suggests that if the Fed begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. - The article concludes that strategies such as shorting base metals and holding cash or gold may be prudent in the current market environment [25].