证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 A 股策略周报 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 08 日 偏多震荡相互拉扯，战略认慢牛、战术细操作 ——A 股市场运行周报第 61 期 核心观点 国庆节前两个交易日，主要宽基指数多数收涨。从国庆期间外盘表现看，欧美、日韩 整体上涨，港股、A50 指数小幅下跌（截止 10 月 8 日 10:00），预计 A 股节后开盘大 概率是震荡格局。展望后市，我们推测上证指数有两种运行路径：一是直接突破前高， 形成日线 5 浪结构；二是先进行区间震荡，此后再行突破。基于"战略看多 A 股走势， 战术执行细化操作"的判断，我们建议：若遇到上证指数回踩震荡区间下沿，则以逢 低增配为主，依旧中线看多做多。行业配置方面，建议绝对收益资金重点关注有补涨 需求的券商板块（尤其是年线附近品种），同时盯紧近期走势稳健、利好频出的地产板 块（后续可延伸至基建工程）；考虑双创指数目前高风险、高收益特征，建议相对收益 资金采取"三项对策"：一是采取上升趋势线或相关均线作为操作依据；二是区分中、 短仓位，短线仓缩短操作周期；三是在科技板块内"高切低"，不断发掘年线附近的补 涨品种。 ❑ 上周（20 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the performance of the stock market, particularly focusing on the dual innovation indices (创业板 and 科创 50) and their impact on the overall market dynamics [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Divergence** - The dual innovation indices have shown strong performance, particularly the 科创 50, which indicates a strong upward momentum despite the pressure on weight indices like 上证 50 and 沪深 300 [1][3][4]. 2. **Challenges and Uncertainties** - The market faces significant challenges, including the divergence of indices, unclear direction of the 上证 index, and the upcoming long holiday which adds to market uncertainty [4][5]. 3. **Investment Strategy in Complex Market** - Investors are advised to focus on systemic market characteristics, avoiding concentrated strategies and instead monitoring overall market rotation. Attention should be given to the sustainability of the dual innovation indices to prevent larger adjustment pressures [6][7]. 4. **Future Market Predictions** - The market is expected to continue in a range-bound consolidation phase, with the 上证 index lacking momentum. The performance of the financial sector, particularly brokerages, is crucial for any potential upward movement in the broader market [11][14]. 5. **Sector Performance** - Notable sectors this week include electronics, non-ferrous metals, and battery industries, which have seen significant gains. Conversely, consumer-related sectors have underperformed, likely due to profit-taking ahead of the National Day holiday [10][11]. 6. **Asset Relationships and Impact** - There is a notable interrelationship among various asset classes, with systemic market characteristics leading to simultaneous rises and falls. A balanced allocation between cyclical and technology sectors is recommended to mitigate risks [7][24]. 7. **Investment Recommendations** - Investors should consider a diversified approach, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals such as non-bank financials and real estate, which may have significant upside potential if profit expectations improve [29][30]. 8. **Market Sentiment and Wealth Effect** - The improvement in industrial profits and consumer spending in Shanghai is attributed to the wealth effect, which has begun to manifest after two years of market growth [2][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Technical Analysis of Indices** - The 上证 index's daily and weekly analysis indicates it is currently in an adjustment phase, with the need for careful monitoring of key moving averages to assess potential risks [8][12]. 2. **Brokerage Sector's Role** - The brokerage sector's performance is critical for the overall market's ability to reach higher levels, emphasizing the need for a healthy rotation within this sector [14][31]. 3. **Real Estate Sector Dynamics** - The real estate sector, while currently lacking in momentum, shows potential for significant upside if profit recovery occurs, making it a sector to watch closely [30]. 4. **Future Focus on Research and Service** - The team acknowledges the need to enhance service quality and better align research outputs with investor needs, indicating a shift towards more investor-centric approaches in the future [32].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment phase, with significant divergence among the three major indices, indicating a need for investors to focus on individual stock fundamentals and industry trends rather than relying solely on index movements [3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat with a change of 0.00%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.33%, highlighting a clear divergence in market performance [3]. - The micro-cap stock index rose over 2%, reaching a new historical high, suggesting a preference among some investors for small-cap stocks due to their high elasticity and easier capital mobilization [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [5]. - The reduction in trading volume suggests a large divergence between buyers and sellers, which may limit the market's upward potential, although it could also indicate a period of consolidation before potential recovery [5]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear sectoral divergence, with the port, ST, mergers and acquisitions, and food sectors showing gains, while humanoid robots, small metals, liquor, and insurance sectors experienced declines [7][8]. - The port sector's rise is attributed to marginal improvements in foreign trade data and supportive policies for the logistics industry, while the ST sector's strength is linked to expectations of asset restructuring [7]. - The decline in the humanoid robot sector is primarily due to profit-taking after previous gains, while the small metals sector is affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current market's adjustment phase, there are still structural opportunities available, particularly in sectors with strong policy support such as new energy and digital economy [10]. - Investors are advised to consider stable, reasonably valued stocks in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to manage market volatility [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the North Exchange 50 Index, reaching a closing price of 1456.19 points, marks a new high since March 18, 2023, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to low trading volumes and a lack of broad-based recovery among stocks [1][3]. Trading Volume and Market Dynamics - The trading volume on the day of the index's rise was only 326 billion, which is 73% of the 448 billion seen on March 18, indicating insufficient support for a sustainable breakout to new highs [1]. - The divergence between the North Exchange 50 Index and the overall North Exchange A Index suggests a preference for large-cap stocks, with only 23% of stocks in the North Exchange showing gains exceeding the index's rise [4][5]. Historical Comparisons - Historical data shows that previous successful breakouts of the North Exchange 50 Index were accompanied by stronger performances from the North Exchange A Index, indicating a more unified market movement [5]. - The current market is characterized by increasing divergence, with the North Exchange 50 Index outperforming the North Exchange A Index significantly during recent attempts to reach new highs [3][5]. Concentration of Trading Activity - There is a noticeable trend of trading activity concentrating on non-North Exchange 50 component stocks, suggesting a lower psychological threshold for the overall market compared to the North Exchange 50 Index [7]. - The market's current state, with significant individual stock divergence and a lack of broad profitability, indicates that investors should be cautious and wait for more favorable entry points rather than chasing high prices [7].