Government Intervention & National Security - The U S government is renegotiating its deal with Intel, moving towards an equity stake due to national security concerns [1][2] - The Department of Defense's involvement necessitates domestic manufacturing of chips for critical weapons systems like the F-35, making Intel's role crucial [2][3] - Government involvement extends to potentially influencing investment decisions and governance within Intel, even without explicit mandates [13] - The U S government is already involved with Nvidia by limiting their chip sales to China [12] Intel's Strategic Position - The renegotiated deal is considered a potential "life saver" for Intel, providing clarity after an uncertain period [1] - Intel previously lacked customers for its 14 architecture, but the Department of Defense is now a likely customer [4][5] - SoftBank may invest in Intel and line up ARM demand for those 14 chips [3] Market Dynamics & Competition - Nvidia has committed 500 billion dollars of investment in the US [6] - Nvidia holds a lead in AI chips, but there's a push for diversification, potentially involving Intel's help [7][8][9] - SoftBank's Masa has relationships with both Nvidia's CEO and aims to build a competing architecture, potentially collaborating with Intel [7]

What was so interesting is this brought the ire of President Trump. He was frustrated that Apple was doing more of its manufacturing in India, shifting from China. He wanted it in the US.But has Tim Cook done enough therefore in the United States to offset this. I think Tim Cook eventually will do enough in the United States to offset it. But today the answer to that is now, and it's not unexpected that they move this to India.They've been working with India since roughly 2017. So it takes a long time to bu ...

Business Performance & Strategy - The company is experiencing record bookings and a record number of large new clients, driven by platformization and a suite of products [1] - The company has surpassed a $10 billion revenue run rate and maintains a 30% operating margin and close to 40% free cash flow margins [12] - The company aims to achieve a collective 40% free cash flow margin by 2028 [14] - The company views acquisitions as a means to acquire great teams and technology, complementing organic growth [7][8] Technology & Threat Landscape - The pace of cyber attacks has accelerated, with the time for bad actors to penetrate systems shrinking to 25 minutes, necessitating technology and automation [2] - There has been an 890% increase in Gen AI traffic in 2024, requiring AI-driven solutions to combat these attacks [3] - The company has built a platform to ingest and analyze enterprise data at scale, processing 150 terabytes of data internally and petabytes for customers [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of good data for effective AI deployment [4] Market & Future Outlook - The company holds a 30% market share in network security and anticipates long-term sustainable growth in the market [17] - The company is preparing for a future where agents will proliferate, requiring identity management and security frameworks [9][10] - Network traffic is expected to double or triple every year, expanding the perimeter of the network to include agents, devices, and cars [14][15][16]

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Risks - Increased volatility and building risks are observed due to the unpredictable nature of US government actions and their potential misalignment with business objectives [2][4] - US government interference introduces uncertainty, impacting long-term revenue prospects for companies like NVIDIA and AMD, despite short-term gains from revised sales policies in China [3][4] - Investors are seeking strategies to hedge against market volatility, especially considering the concentration of equity benchmark gains in a few names [5] Investment Strategies & Diversification - Diversification away from highly valued US equities towards sectors with growth potential is recommended [6] - Buying put options is considered as a hedging strategy against potential market sell-offs and valuation corrections [6] - Diversification of portfolios is favored over betting against specific companies, with a focus on mitigating downside risk [9][10] International Opportunities - International companies are poised to gain market share, presenting opportunities in international markets as US technology companies are perceived as fully valued [7] - Opportunities are emerging in European military and defense technologies, as well as Asian foundries and chipmakers like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), Samsung, and SK Hynix [12][13] - The industry anticipates increased technology spending in Europe driven by defense-related investments [11]

Meta AI is a total mixed bag. The chatbot is plagued by brand trust issues, unfinished features, and unclear direction. But the potential is massive.Just ask its rivals, Chat GBT, Google Gemini, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot. They've all called Meta AI impressive in some ways, frustrating in other ways. And they're not wrong.Meta's assistant now reaches over a billion users thanks to integration across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and devices like Rayban smart glasses and the Quest headset. But it's s ...

this shift of what Doge is now, you wrote a great piece for Wired about, you know, quote unquote Doge 2.0%. What do you see as Doge 2.0%. >> So, a lot of those folks who were brought on at the beginning, Edward Bigballs, Corine, Luke Farader, who Bloomberg did a wonderful profile of, a lot of those kids are still in government, right.They're at a variety of different agencies. Farader is still at the Department of Labor. Um, he still has, you know, a tremendous amount of power.I think Doge 1.0% can be defin ...

Product Performance & Strategy - Apple's Vision Pro launch is considered a potential flop, contrasting with the success of previous major product categories like the Apple Watch, iPod, iPhone, and iPad [1][2] - The limited immersive video content available for the Vision Pro is a key constraint, with only 27 pieces released in the last 18 months, creating a dilemma between content investment and headset sales [3][4] - Apple plans to release a lighter, cheaper, and revamped version of the Vision Pro in 2027 [5] - Apple will refresh the Vision Pro in the coming weeks with a faster processor and a new strap to improve performance and comfort [6] Competitive Landscape & Future Outlook - Augmented reality glasses are expected to become standard for tech companies within 3-5 years [7] - Google and Samsung are also developing augmented reality technology [7] - Apple's original concept was glasses, but they are waiting until the visual quality matches the Vision Pro [8]

Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Supply Chain - Establishing a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing business is possible but faces challenges [1] - Building the infrastructure for harvesting and refining rare earths takes considerable time, impacting EV production [2] - Government intervention is warranted in cases of market failure or negative externalities related to public goods like climate [4][5] - Ford and other U S manufacturers have experienced production pauses due to rare earth supply shortages [6] - The U S refining infrastructure for rare earths is estimated to be up to speed within 5 to 10 years [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market & Policy - The transition to EVs accelerated after 2010, reaching approximately 10% market share [8] - IRS tax credits have significantly influenced EV sales, with potential slowdowns anticipated without them [8][9] - Domestic sourcing of critical minerals is crucial for climate and national security reasons [9] - The Trump administration invested in private industry, such as MP Materials, to advance domestic rare earth production [3]

I have to say, I'm following these companies closely. And when you know the unit sales numbers come out every month, I'm shocked to see how small they are for EVs in general. But also the fact that all these companies have tried to get in with pickup trucks first.Why is that. I think when you had announcements from Rivian and Tesla early on that they were going to go with trucks. I think what everybody figured is the US pickup market is so big that even if a small portion of it went electric, you would stil ...

The White House is looking at taking an actual stake in Intel and could use money from Biden's Chips Act to do it. How do you see that. Well, I think that's a distinct possibility, and especially because, well, if you look at where the chips are produced, the most important chips in the world, which I can say is probably two fold, of course, chips, but also defense types of chips, and not just for the US, but drones and all manner of smart, you know, killing machines that they use in the in defense are made ...