20VC with Harry Stebbings
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CEO Comps are Broken
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-08 05:00
The other problem with comp, the way it works behind the scenes is, you know, HubSpot's got a compensation committee. Everyone's got a compensation committee and HubSpot wants to pay the CEO, let's say, at the 75th percentile of what her peers make. And so we look at 20 different peers of similar size companies at lasting blah blah blah blah.We peg her at that 75th percentile, which in her case is, you know, it's 20 million bucks, a lot of money. Now, if you did that for Dylan, which would be in our comp gr ...
Behind Figma's IPO Pricing Incident
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-07 15:10
Market Valuation & IPO Dynamics - The $98 price for Figma was contingent on the IPO occurring at $38 [1] - Raising at $80 would not have garnered sufficient bids [2] - Timing is crucial for IPOs due to market seasonality [2] Strategic Recommendations - Canva, as a strong company, should prepare for an IPO [2]
Why Synthetic Data Is Overrated
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-07 05:00
Synthetic Data Limitations - Synthetic data models excel in academic benchmark problems but struggle with real-world applications [1] - Companies are realizing the limitations of synthetic data after investing significant time (months) in training models with it, leading to discarding large portions of the data [2] - High-quality human-generated data, even in small quantities (e g, a thousand or a couple thousand pieces), can be more valuable than large volumes (e g, 10 million pieces) of synthetic data [3] Real-World Application - Models trained heavily on synthetic data are often ineffective in real-world use cases [2] - Companies have spent considerable time training models on synthetic data, only to discover its shortcomings later [2]
Why Index Are The Best At Selecting In VC
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-06 14:00
index. I think they have to be in a market that is as bad as you hear in the news. The performance that they've delivered and are delivering here in the future is unbelievable.I mean, largest shareholder in Figma, largest shareholder in Dream Games, largest shareholder in Whiz, second largest shareholder in Scale AAI Revolute. It's unbelievable. And and I give Index all the credit in the world for not scaling.They even reduced their latest fund size. They reduced it after the 2021 era. Like the the credit I ...
Big Tech’s Green Light to Buy?
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-05 14:00
If whiz gets approved, I think every other large Mac7 company is going to see a green light in regards to making big splashy acquisitions again, which is a good thing. You look at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta combined. I mean, they're doing 600 billion of operating cash flow, just cash coming off the company every single year.And I think they would much rather make very strategic acquisitions than buy back 50 basis points of the. ...
The $140BN Problem
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-04 17:00
how we underwrite, you know, these big funds. Now, today, it's simple math, but I'll walk you through it. So, and this is a live manager.I won't share their name, but so we'll look at their fund raise. So, this manager was was targeting a $7 billion fund raise. And so, what we do is we do a dollar weighted entry ownership across their different funds.So, this had a billion dollar early stage fund, a $2 to$3 billion growth fund, and the rest was an opportunity fund. And as an LP, most LPS have to invest para ...
“Take Your Companies Public”
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-04 14:00
So my message here to all venture capitalists, now is the time. Please take your companies public. I breathe investing.These business models these GPS are creating are some of the best high margin businesses ever created. My question to any new allocator or investor is do you think you're going to have access to top decile managers. Because at that point top decile you are achieving returns above the PME consistently but below that even top quartortile you're not. ...
Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-04 13:57
Venture Capital Investment Strategies - Venture capital firms should consider taking companies public now, as current business models are creating high-margin businesses [1][19] - New allocators or investors need access to top decile managers to consistently achieve returns above the Public Market Equivalent (PME); otherwise, even top quartile performance is insufficient [1] - The venture industry is seeing a shift in partnership dynamics, with increased changes in partnerships over the past two years, driven by factors such as reduced compensation and a desire to avoid current market challenges [10] - The industry should be wary of multi-stage platforms, as the large fund sizes make it difficult to achieve the same returns as in the past [12] - The industry should be aware that thematic funds are approached agnostically, focusing on finding great partners with aligned skill sets rather than adhering to specific mandates [20] Endowment Management - Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) manages $4 billion on behalf of the university, with 85% allocated to equity and 15% to fixed income [6] - CMU targets 50% of its portfolio in privates (venture capital, private equity, real estate, natural resources, private credit) and the other 50% in hedge funds and liquids (public equities and fixed income) [6] - CMU is overweight venture by 5-10 percentage points compared to most endowments of its size and underweight hedge funds and real assets [6] - Endowments are facing headwinds, particularly those that may be subject to taxation, which could impact their draw and investment strategies [11] Venture Capital Fund Performance & Metrics - The median Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for mature venture capital funds is about 8% net, with the top quartile at 15%, and a Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC) of about 25x [6] - Top quartile Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) from 15-year vintage funds (1998-2015) is 18x [6] - A key question for new allocators is whether they will have access to top decile managers, as only those consistently achieve returns above the PME [6] - The industry should be aware that a 6x gross return is needed to achieve a 4x net return, considering fees of 25% and 30% for early-stage funds and 2% and 20% for growth funds [13]
Apple’s Exec Problem
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-03 14:00
I think as a board you say to yourself, do you have a management team that's too old? Cuz that's the only button you have. And I love to go Apple is my largest single position. But you just do wonder, is this the team to grab what's going on in AI, which they absolutely should have a product on? And at some point, do you say you just have a bunch of folks who aren't figuring it out? And do you make a change? That was the comment. Rather than some kind of tactical, hey, you should buy X, Y, or Z. Look in the ...
“Having a PHD isn’t enough”
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-02 14:00
What people underestimate is that having a PhD isn't enough. Like a lot of PhDs, they just aren't good at this type of work. There are a lot of body shops and recruiting shops in our space that basically just look whether you wrote down that you have a PhD on your resume and they'll just instantly give you work if so.But a lot of PhDs just aren't very good. Like I think 80% of the computer science PhDs I know, they write shitty code because they're only good at math and algorithms. And then you think about ...