行 业 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月27日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -27% -19% -10% -2% 6% 15% 23% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.信贷节奏更均衡，增量与结构再平 衡——银行业"量价质"跟踪（一） 2.存款重定价有望缓冲资产端压力 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 信贷新旧动能切换 ] ，息差压力明显缓解 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（三） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 2022年以来新旧动能切换，信贷结构调整。2022以来房地产对经济驱动明显放缓，总量+ 结构货币政策保持宽松，银行信贷规模实现较快增长。结构上来看，高质量发展阶段新旧 动能切换，不同领域信贷分化。一方面，普惠、高端制造、科技、绿色等领域信贷需求 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slow cooling, with Q2 2024 GDP growth at 2.8%, exceeding the forecast of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.4%[22] - The core PCE inflation rate for Q2 2024 is at 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.7% and lower than the previous 3.7%[22] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending remains the largest support for the U.S. economy, contributing 1.6% to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[23] - Residential investment has declined, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.4%, down from a positive growth of 16% in Q1 2024, contributing -0.05% to GDP[3] - Business investments in construction, equipment, and intellectual property have increased by 5.3%, 1.8%, and 4.6% respectively, driven by transportation and information processing equipment[24] Inventory and Trade Impact - Private sector inventory increased, contributing 0.8% to GDP growth, marking it as the second-largest contributor after consumer spending[7] - The trade deficit continues to weigh on GDP growth, with imports rising by 4.9% and exports by 3.5%, resulting in a 0.7% drag on GDP growth[8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are hopes for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with no signs of a sharp recession, although market volatility is expected to increase[4] - The strong dollar and limited growth in overseas economies are negatively impacting U.S. exports, indicating resilient domestic demand despite trade deficits[8]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 张晶磊 zjlei@longone.com.cn 联系人 马小萱 mxxuan@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -30% -21% -12% -3% 6% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.需求保持稳健，成本端或将改善— —轮胎行业月报（2024年6月） 2.卫星化学（002648）：α-烯烃再取 新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公 司简评报告 3.制冷剂配额调整推动行业格局持 续优化——氟化工行业月报（2024年 6月） [table_invest] 标配 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.立华股份（300761）：上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 2.国有大行集体存款降息：两年期及以上均下调20个基点 ➢ 4.美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率、PCE价指数均高于预期 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | | 1.1. 立华股份 ( 300761 ): 上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善――公司简评报告 .. | | 1.2. 卫星化学（002648） α-烯烃再取新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公司简 | | 评报告 | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/8 | --- | --- | |----------------- ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of internal momentum within the industry, focusing on new productive forces and technological advancements as key drivers for growth [1][55]. - In the first half of the year, economic performance showed a trend of supply exceeding demand, indicating potential challenges for industries reliant on consumer spending [2][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential improvement in sales year-on-year, driven by policy measures aimed at inventory reduction and housing construction [27][6]. Group 2 - Consumer recovery is slow, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as evidenced by retail sales growth rates [32][11]. - Exports remain resilient but face uncertainties due to increased tariffs from the US and EU on Chinese products, which could impact future trade dynamics [13][16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, which typically correlates with increased investment, although demand remains weak [21][41]. Group 3 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing robust investment growth, outpacing overall manufacturing, indicating a shift towards advanced industries [55]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, driven by low-carbon policies, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape for leading firms [116][117]. - The copper market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, supported by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors [111][86].

Key Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) achieved a revenue of 19.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.056 billion yuan, an increase of 12.51% [11] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.53% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.34% [11] - The revenue breakdown by product for Q2 includes functional chemicals at 9.247 billion yuan, polymer new materials at 5.488 billion yuan, new energy materials at 357 million yuan, and other businesses at 4.308 billion yuan [11] C2 Business Performance - The average price of key C2 products in Q2 2024 was as follows: HDPE at 8,646.77 yuan/ton, ethylene oxide at 6,880.65 yuan/ton, and ethylene glycol at 4,486.05 yuan/ton, with respective changes of +363.44, +208.98, and -105.28 yuan/ton compared to Q1 2024 [12] - The price of ethylene glycol has risen from an average of 4,165.94 yuan/ton in 2023 to approximately 4,650 yuan/ton currently [12] - The company has optimized its production efficiency during maintenance, enhancing the stability and quality of operations [12] C3 Business Insights - In Q2 2024, the average prices for C3 products were: PP powder at 7,608.06 yuan/ton, acrylic acid at 7,177.42 yuan/ton, and butyl acrylate at 9,835.48 yuan/ton, with changes of +179.73, +867.58, and -66.16 yuan/ton respectively compared to Q1 2024 [13] - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project will enhance the company's efficiency in utilizing propylene resources [13] - The new projects are expected to support the company's growth trajectory by establishing a closed-loop supply chain for propylene and its derivatives [13] Machinery Equipment Industry - The machinery equipment sector is focusing on global expansion through mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Giant Star Technology acquiring regional leaders to enhance their market presence [15] - The global market is witnessing a Matthew effect, where leading companies are likely to gain more market share due to their financial and managerial capabilities [16] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong product matrices and overseas layouts, such as XCMG, Zoomlion, and Sany Heavy Industry [17] Tire Industry Overview - The tire industry is experiencing stable demand, with expectations of improved cost conditions as raw material prices are projected to decline [29] - The production capacity utilization rate remains high, particularly for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tires face competitive pressures [29] - The export share of domestic tire manufacturers is expected to increase as production facilities are established in Southeast Asia [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability in the first half of 2024, driven by improved cost management in chicken and pig farming [3][6] - The sales volume of yellow feathered chickens increased by 10.7% year-on-year, reaching 235 million, with revenue of 6.682 billion yuan, a growth of 11.4% [5] - The average selling price of yellow feathered chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5] - The complete cost of raising yellow feathered chickens decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 12.2 yuan/kg in the first half of 2024, primarily due to lower feed material costs [5] - The company expects continued price recovery for yellow chickens in the second half of the year, contributing to performance growth [5] Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In the first half of 2024, the company sold 43.49 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with revenue of 0.835 billion yuan, up 44.2% [15] - The average selling price of pigs was 15.9 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.1% increase year-on-year [15] - The company anticipates a total pig output of over 1.2 million for the year, supported by a stable production capacity of 1.8 million pigs [15] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 0.831 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 289.99% [6] - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 1.00 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 1.54 yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are estimated at 23.01, 10.29, and 15.01 times [6] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced costs in both chicken and pig farming, with significant improvements in profitability expected to continue [6][15] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from 17.6 yuan/kg in Q1 to 14.8 yuan/kg in Q2 of 2024 [15]

2024年07月24日 超點 市场分析师 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 同志之行的 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn 2d-0d 1.关注工具企业全球化进程一 械 设 备 行 业 周 报 （ 20240715- 20240721 ) 2.重点品类内外销数据改善，关注工 程机械升级、出海进程——机械设备 行业周报 ( 20240708-20240714 ) 3.6月挖机内销增速优于市场预期， 工程机械景气度持续边际改善- 机械设备行业简评 宁业跟踪：下游库存改善，创新+全 -机械设备行业深度报告 投资最点： > 海外渠道商逐渐走出库存扰动期，有望带动工具行业订单修复。过去几年，外部宏观因素 对美国等重要市场工具产品零售造成扰动。2020年，因海运运力不足、供应链调整等情况， 部分渠道商未及时跟进下游需求；2021年受滞后需求、策略转变等因素的影响，渠道备货 较为激进。随后，在通胀背景下，消费者在购买时趋于谨慎，部分渠道商销售收入增速放 缓、库存累积。2023年，由于美国卖场等渠道调整库存、减少进货，我国部分出口企业收 入走 ...

2024 6 证券分析师:吴骏燕 执业证书编号:S0630517120001 联系人:马小萱 联系方式:mxxuan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师:谢建斌 执业证书编号:S0630522020001 联系人:张晶磊 联系方式:zjlei@longone.com.cn 2024年07月24日 原料成本端:供应格局改善,海运费上涨趋势或将缓和 二、生产端:生产热度延续,开工率持续高位运行 111 需求端:海外半钢胎需求向好,全钢胎需求仍待修复 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 日录 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明 6 ● 6月轮胎上游原材料价格:2024年6月丁二烯均价13048.75元/吨,环比上涨14.89%,同比上涨118.83%;天然橡胶均价 1767.63美元/吨,环比上涨3.93%,同比上涨29.54%;丁苯橡胶均价15220元/吨,环比上涨12.90%,同比上涨36.73%; 炭黑均价7796.67元/吨,环比下降12.89%,同比下降2.83%;锦纶帘子布均价22500元/吨,环比持平,同比上涨5.57 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Overweight" [7][27]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing a significant global expansion, with companies transitioning from OEM models to building their own brands and channels, particularly in North America [7][11]. - Mergers and acquisitions are a primary strategy for companies to enhance their overseas presence and fill product gaps, exemplified by companies like Juxing Technology [7][13]. - A highly efficient and stable global supply chain is being established, with Asian countries focusing on production and R&D, while North America and Europe handle logistics and customer service [7][14]. - The deepening globalization process may intensify the Matthew effect in the industry, favoring larger companies with stronger financial and management capabilities [7][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Tool Industry Globalization Review - The tool industry has evolved through three stages: OEM production, brand development, and capacity expansion, with significant growth in overseas markets since 2018 [11]. - Companies like Juxing Technology and Qianfeng Holdings are rapidly establishing production bases in countries like Vietnam and the USA to better meet market demands [11][15]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session emphasized high-quality economic development and the importance of self-sufficient supply chains, which will benefit key sectors like industrial mother machines and robotics [19]. - Sales data from June 2024 shows significant growth in various machinery exports, indicating a robust demand for engineering machinery [20]. 3. Market Review - The report notes that the mechanical equipment sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.10% against a 1.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [22].