Donghai Securities
Search documents
东海证券晨会纪要
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-02 05:30
Group 1: Battery and Energy Storage Industry - The virtual power plant peak regulation has been implemented, increasing the heat of grid-type energy storage. Major operators like State Grid and Telida are participating in power spot trading with a total adjustable capacity of approximately 300MW. From June 1 to 23, 2024, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 534,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with an expected total sales of 11.5 million units for the year, up 20% year-on-year [34][35] - The supply side of the industry is adjusting in an orderly manner, stabilizing prices. Lithium salt prices are fluctuating due to supply-demand negotiations, while the price of lithium iron phosphate is at the breakeven point. The demand for graphite anodes is slightly improving, but prices remain near cost levels. The demand for separators is stable, and the overall demand for electrolytes is steady, although prices are declining due to capacity impacts [34][36] - The energy storage sector is experiencing short-term low-price competition, with a focus on large-capacity cell mass production and the rising popularity of grid-type energy storage. The industry is expected to see significant advancements in large-capacity cells and modular PCS systems [36] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry - The pharmaceutical and biological sector has shown a decline of 3.48% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.51 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has decreased by 21.09%, also lagging behind the index by 21.98 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is at 24.1 times, which is historically low [22][40] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the adjustment of the 2024 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which includes extending the application conditions for drugs approved after January 1, 2019, and enhancing supply guarantee management for drugs that have not been supplied for nearly three years [39][40] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector remains weak, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality stocks in high-growth sub-sectors, particularly innovative drugs, branded traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, and specialty raw materials [40] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The domestic interest rate bond market has strengthened again, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 2.21%, down 34 basis points from the beginning of the year. The market is supported by a manufacturing PMI of 49.5, which has been below the growth line for two consecutive months [7][14] - The net financing of local government bonds is expected to total 22,739 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a projected peak in government bond supply. However, the effective continuation of project reserves needs to be monitored [13][25] - The current environment of high dividend ETFs has seen a rise of nearly 7.5% in H1 2024, outperforming the broader market index by approximately 6%. The bond market is also experiencing a bull market, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields down by nearly 35bps and 40bps, respectively, since the beginning of the year [5][7] Group 4: RF Switch and Amplifier Market - The company holds a leading position in the domestic RF switch market, with a global market share of 5% in 2020, ranking fifth. The RF market is expected to reach a size of $31.31 billion in 2023, growing by 15.02% year-on-year [3][41] - The company has achieved full coverage in its low-noise amplifier (LNA) business, supporting all frequency ranges for 5G sub-6GHz. The combination of its leading position in switches and comprehensive layout in LNAs positions the company well for market expansion [3][41] - The RF front-end module market is expected to grow, with the company increasing its revenue share from module business significantly, reaching 36.34% in 2023. The company is expanding its product offerings from receiving modules to more complex transmitting modules [42][43]
新能源电力行业周报:风光新增装机继续上升,硅片试探性涨价
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-02 04:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind energy, indicating a high level of market activity and growth potential [7][11]. Core Insights - The solar panel sector is experiencing price stabilization with slight increases in certain silicon wafer models, while the overall market remains cautious due to inventory levels [8][17]. - The wind energy sector shows a continuous increase in installed capacity, with significant projects underway, particularly in offshore wind [10][19]. - The report highlights specific companies to watch, such as Daqin Heavy Industry and Dongfang Cable, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in offshore wind projects [21][9]. Summary by Sections Solar Sector - Silicon material prices are stable, with 19 domestic polysilicon producers currently operational and 15 undergoing maintenance. The market is expected to maintain stability in the short term due to limited inventory absorption [8][17]. - Silicon wafer production in June was 51.31 GW, a decrease of 13.98% month-over-month, with expectations of production between 50-52 GW in July [8][17]. - Battery cell production is projected to decrease slightly in July, with a total of 52 GW produced in June [8][17]. - The module market is experiencing price declines due to aggressive pricing strategies from smaller manufacturers, leading to a chaotic pricing environment [8][17]. Wind Sector - The newly installed wind power capacity in China reached 19.76 GW from January to May 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.50% [11][20]. - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines is approximately 1875.8 CNY/kW, while offshore wind projects are seeing bids around 2722.18 CNY/kW [10][19]. - The report anticipates that the total installed capacity for wind energy in 2024 could reach 87.40 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 15.15% [11][20]. - Key components such as towers and cables are expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of offshore wind projects [20][21]. Company Recommendations - Daqin Heavy Industry is highlighted as a leader in offshore equipment, with a strong order backlog and successful project deliveries in Europe [21]. - Dongfang Cable is noted for its advanced technology in submarine cables and has secured multiple contracts for domestic offshore wind projects, positioning it for significant growth [21][9]. - DiKe Co., a leader in TOPCon materials, reported a 135.38% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2024, indicating strong market performance [9][18].
医药生物行业周报:医保目录调整启动,精选优质个股
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 12:00
行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 证券分析师 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 联系人 付婷 futing@longone.com.cn 相关研究 1.关注Q2业绩表现,精选优质个股— —医药生物行业周报(20240617- 20240623) 2.政策频出,精选个股——医药生物 行业周报(20240611-20240616) 3.医改2024年重点任务发布,布局细 分领域优质个股——医药生物行业 周报(20240603-20240609) 超配 医保目录调整启动,精选优质个股 ——医药生物行业周报(2024/06/24-2024/06/30) 投资要点: 市场表现: 上周(6月24日至6月30日)医药生物板块整体下跌3.48%,在申万31个行业中排第27 位,跑输沪深300指数2.51个百分点。年初至今,医药生物板块整体下跌21.09%,在申万 31个行业中排第26位,跑输沪深300指数21.98个百分点。当前,医药生物板块PE估值为 24.1倍,处于历史低位水平,相对于沪深300 ...
FICC&资产配置周观察:美元趋鹰约束风偏,国内利率再度下行
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 11:00
资料来源:Wind,东海证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,东海证券研究所 2.债券市场 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/14 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 图15 信用利差及 10Y-2Y 期限利差 图16 同业存单利率 0 2 4 6 -20 30 80 130 180 AAA同业存单与FR007IRS利差:1年bps[右轴] AAA同业存单收益率:1年 资料来源:Wind,东海证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,东海证券研究所 2.2.海外流动性观察 1 2 3 4 5 6 2016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06 10年期国债收益率 % 10年期国开 ...
电子行业周报:新《措施》助力打造电子产品消费新场景,2024Q3存储合约价季涨幅环比收敛
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 09:30
行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.国芯科技(688262.SH):定 制量产订单充沛,车规MCU和 RAID芯片放量在即——公司简 评报告 1. HarmonyOS NEXT、盘古大模型 5.0亮相,尽显华为系统级AI生态建 设——电子行业周报(20240617- 20240623) 2. Apple Intelligence强力赋能终端 应用,中芯国际一季度市占率跃升 第三——电子行业周报 (20240610-20240616) 3. AI领域竞争日趋白热:英特尔新 发布Lunar Lake、英伟达Blackwell 已投产——电子行业周报 (20240603-20240609) [table_invest] 标配 新《措施》助力打造电子产品消费新场 景,2024Q3存储合约价季涨幅环比收敛 ——电子行业周报2024/6/24-2024/6/30 [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 电子板块观点:发改委等部门发布《关于打造消费新场 ...
纺织服饰行业周报:波司登发布财年业绩公告,再创佳绩
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 08:00
[证Ta券b分le析_A师uthors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 龚理 gongli@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 1、"618"大促增速降档,运动户外 成绩斐然——纺织服饰行业周报 (2024/6/17-2024/6/23) 2、迅销集团上调全年业绩指引—— 纺 织 服 饰 行 业 周 报 (2024/6/10-2024/6/16) 3、纺织品服装出口略有放缓,对越 出口迎新高,美欧平稳复苏——纺织 服饰行业周报(2024/5/27-2024/6/2) 4、国风+海外产能扩张+涨价,三重 动因催化嘉欣丝绸股价——纺织服 饰行业周报(2024/5/20-2024/5/26) 5、防晒衣热销,品牌服饰加速布局 — — 纺 织 服 饰 行 业 周 报 (2024/5/13-2024/5/19) [table_invest] 标配 [波Tabl司e_N登ewT发itle]布财年业绩公告,再创佳绩 ——纺织服饰行业周报(2024/6/24-2024/6/30) [table_main] 投资要点: 本周观点:波司登发布财 ...
电池及储能行业周报:虚拟电厂调峰落地,构网型储能热度提升
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 07:00
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Market Weight" indicating a neutral outlook for the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The battery sector experienced an overall decline of 3.53% in the week of June 24-30, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.56 percentage points [2][16]. - The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is recovering, with retail sales of new energy vehicles reaching 534,000 units from June 1-23, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [3][9]. - The total retail sales of new energy vehicles for the year are projected to reach 11.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [3][11]. - The supply side of the industry is adjusting in an orderly manner, with prices stabilizing across various materials [10][11]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - Virtual power plants are now operational, with major players like State Grid and Telida participating in power spot trading, contributing a total adjustable capacity of approximately 300 MW [3][9]. - The lithium salt market is experiencing price fluctuations due to ongoing supply-demand negotiations, while the prices of cathode materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate, are at the breakeven point [10][11]. - Notable companies to watch include CATL, which is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with an estimated profit of 46 billion yuan, and Teruid, which is benefiting from structural upgrades in grid investment [11][14]. Energy Storage Sector - A total of 7 new bidding projects were announced, with a total scale of 0.99 GW/7.36 GWh, indicating a slight decline in the energy storage bidding market [12][24]. - The average bidding price for energy storage EPC projects decreased to 1.05 yuan/Wh, reflecting ongoing low-price competition in the industry [13][24]. - Companies like Shangen Electric are highlighted for their comprehensive energy storage business model, which includes upstream inverters and downstream energy stations [14][24].
美容护理行业周报:新品上市,创健医疗新三板上市获受理
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 07:00
行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -43% -34% -24% -14% -5% 5% 14% 23-06 23-09 23-12 24-03 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.关注优质国货龙头——美容护理 行业周报(2024/6/17-2024/6/21) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 新品上市,] 创健医疗新三板上市获受理 ——美容护理行业周报(2024/6/24-2024/6/28) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 市场表现:(1)美容护理板块:本周沪深300指数下跌0.97%,申万美容护理指数下跌 1.61%,行业跑输大盘0.64pcts,涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排第10位。(2)个股方面: 本周板块内涨幅前五的个股分别为珀莱雅(4.51%)、登康口腔(4.07%)、锦盛新材 (3.16%)、华业香料(2.43%)、润本股份(2.17%);本 ...
汽车行业周报:零跑C16正式上市,阿维塔宣布首搭华为ADS 3.0
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 06:30
行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师: Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相关研究 table_product] 1.享界S9亮相华为开发者大会,问界 新M7 Ultra大定突破3万台——汽车 行业周报(2024/06/17-2024/06/23) 2.新能源乘用车5月零售同比+39%, 混动市场延续高增长——汽车行业 周报(2024/06/10-2024/06/16) 3.首批智能网联汽车准入和上路通 行试点名单公布,L3级智能驾驶产业 化提速 — — 汽 车 行 业 周 报 (2024/06/03-2024/06/09) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 零跑 ] C16正式上市,阿维塔宣布首搭华为 ADS 3.0 ——汽车行业周报(2024/06/24-2024/06/30) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 本周汽车板块行情表现:本周沪深300环比下跌0.97%;汽车板块整体下跌3.14%,涨幅在 31个行业中排第23。细分行业中,(1)整车 ...
非银金融行业周报:中期分红提升保险板块吸引力,把握并购重组概念调整后的配置机遇
Donghai Securities· 2024-07-01 06:00
行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [相关研究 table_product] 1.陆家嘴论坛指明改革方向,把握券 商并购与保险回暖配置逻辑——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 ( 20240617- 20240623) 2.关注陆家嘴论坛政策预期,把握非 银板块阶段性行情——非银金融行 业周报(20240610-20240616) 3.关注资本市场改革预期,把握资负 改善下的保险配置机遇——非银金 融行业周报(20240603-20240609) [table_main] 投资要点: [table_stockTrend] -26% -17% -8% 1% 10% 19% 28% 23-06 23-09 23-12 24-03 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 中期分红提升保险板块吸引力, ] 把握并 购重组概念调整后的配置机遇 ——非银金融行业周报(20240624-20240630) ➢ 行情回顾:上周非银指数下跌 ...