行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证Table_Authors] 券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 蔡望颋 cwt@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相table_product] 关研究 1.国产汽车芯片迎催化良机， 1. 国 产 汽 车 芯 片 迎 催 化 良 机 ， 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同比增长 6.5%（20240715-20240721） 2. IoT出海高景气度持续，台积电 Q2业绩超预期市值首破万亿美元— —电子行业周报（20240708- 20240714） 3. 《指南》落实AI产业标准化方 向，WAIC 2024共商AI领域向善治 理（20240701-20240707） 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同 比增长6.5%——电子行业周报 （20240715-20240721） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] Q2中国智能手机出货量同比增长8.9%， 3000亿特别国债助力消费品以旧换新 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn 联系人 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -48% -38% -28% -17% -7% 3% 13% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏大基地动工叠加出海加速，风 电新增装机持续增长 ——新能源电 力行业周报（ 2024/07/15- 2024/07/19） 2.光伏新技术产业化加快，电动车需 求恢复——电力设备新能源行业周 报（2023/6/26-2023/7/02） ➢ 储能板块 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 暑期淡季电车短期承压，新兴市场储能 ] 需求逐现 ——电池及储能行业周报（2024/0 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 以旧换新政策再加码，有望提振车市需 ] 求 ——汽车行业周报（2024/07/22-2024/07/28） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 本周汽车板块行情表现：本周沪深300环比下跌3.67%；汽车板块整体下跌1.80%，涨幅在 31个行业中排第12。细分行业中，（1）整车：综合乘用车、商用载货车、商用载客车子板 块分别变动-3.39%、0.39%、-3.33%。（2）汽车零部件：车身附件及饰件、底盘与发动机 系统、轮胎轮毂、其他汽车零部件、汽车电子电气系统子板块分别变动-3.01%、-6.34%、 -5.30%、-4.70%、-4.90%；（3）汽车服务：汽车经销商、汽车综合服务子板块分别变动0.65%、-3.78%。（4）其他交运设备：其他运输设备、摩托车子板块分别变动-3.03%、- 1.98%。 ➢ 以旧换新政策再加码，有望提振车市需求。近期发改委、财政部等发布《关于加力支持大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》，与4月发布的《汽车以旧换新 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn 联系人 付婷 futing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相关研究 table_product] 1. 持续深化医疗改革，大力发展新 质生产力——医药生物行业周报 （20240715-20240721） 2. 关注业绩边际变化趋势，布局个 股机会 — — 医 药 生 物 行 业 周 报 （20240708-20240714） 3. 政策落地，利好创新药长期发展 ——医药生物行业周报（20240701- 20240707） [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle] DRG/DIP 2.0版发布，利好创新应用 ——医药生物行业周报（2024/07/22-2024/07/28） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 上周（7月22日至7 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 联系人 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -48% -38% -28% -17% -7% 3% 13% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏大基地动工叠加出海加速，风 电新增装机持续增长 ——新能源电 力 行 业 周 报 （ 2024/07/15- 2024/07/19） 2.锂电板块下游需求旺盛，储能行业 低价竞争或将改善——电池及储能 行业周报（2024/07/15-2024/07/21） 3.光伏硅片价格维稳，海风建设稳步 推 进 — — 新能源电力行业周报 （2024/07/08-2024/07/14） [table_invest] ...

Investment Insights - The report highlights the recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD, with the USDCNH reaching 7.20 and closing at 7.26, despite domestic interest rate cuts potentially leading to depreciation. This strength is attributed to several factors, including the Bank of Canada's recent rate cut and the depreciation of the JPY, which has influenced market expectations for the RMB [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of interest rate cuts, including a 10 basis points reduction in both OMO and LPR rates, and a 20 basis points cut in MLF rates, resulting in the 10-year government bond yield falling below 2.20% [3][4]. - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 300 billion RMB is noted, with a net financing of approximately 4.03 trillion RMB in government bonds from January to July 2024. The pace of bond issuance is expected to accelerate in August [4][5]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth rate for Q2 2024 is reported at 4.7%, indicating a gradual recovery, although real estate sales and investment remain weak. The report emphasizes the need for counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth [3][4]. - The report also discusses the potential for a rebound in the US housing market, with economic resilience observed in the US, as indicated by a Q2 GDP growth rate of 2.8% [47]. Foreign Exchange Market - The report notes that the PBOC is tightening liquidity in the offshore market to improve the supply-demand relationship for foreign exchange, with the CNH HIBOR overnight rate rising to 6% since July [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate may stabilize in Q3, with limited potential for significant appreciation, while a slight appreciation is possible in Q4 as the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts [2][3].

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 [table_invest] [Table_NewTitle 国产叉车出海 ] 空间广阔，锂电池+智能化 有望重塑世界新格局 ——机械设备行业深度报告 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -37% -29% -21% -13% -5% 3% 11% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 叉车下游应用广泛，周期性特征较弱。叉车设备主要用于堆垛货物，搬运能力高效，可显 著降低工作量。作为工程机械装备的一个分支，叉车下游应用广泛，主要涵盖物流仓储、 食品饮料、电气机械、汽车制造、批发零售等众多领域，其中制造业需求占比约40%，物 流转运类需求占比约14%；因此，相较于传统工程机械，叉车国内基础设施投资影响较小， 周期波动性特征相对较弱。 ➢ 叉车全球市场广阔 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -50% -39% -29% -18% -8% 3% 13% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.6月社零承压，关注国货表现—— 美 容 护 理 行 业 周 报 (2024/7/15- 2024/7/19) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 上美股份]发布业绩预告，LVMH上半年香 水化妆品同比增长6% ——美容护理行业周报(2024/7/22-2024/7/26) [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现：（1）美容护理板块：本周沪深300指数下跌3.67%，申万美容护理指数下跌 3.99%，行业跑输大盘0.32pcts，涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排倒数第6位。（2）个股方面： 本周板块内涨幅前五的个股分别为ST美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the profit growth of industrial enterprises has improved, driven by a seasonal rise in profit margins and a decrease in cost rates due to falling upstream prices. The performance of industries benefiting from equipment renewal policies and improved export conditions is relatively strong [7][14][9] - In June, the profit margin for industrial enterprises rose to 6.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding seasonal trends. Revenue growth for the month was 2.9% year-on-year, with a slight decline in volume but an increase in price [8][14] - The report highlights that upstream coal mining has shown significant improvement, while the equipment manufacturing sector has provided substantial support. The profit growth of downstream industries such as beverages and pharmaceuticals has also improved [9][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises in June increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly up from the previous value of 3.45%. The profit growth rate is stronger than seasonal expectations [13][14] - The structure of profits across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors has changed, with midstream equipment manufacturing's profit share increasing significantly to 33.2%, while the shares of upstream mining and midstream raw materials have decreased [15][14] - Inventory growth has continued to rise, with finished goods inventory increasing by 4.7% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating a potential recovery in inventory replenishment driven by price adjustments [16][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic context, noting that the central bank has implemented multiple interest rate cuts, reflecting the commitment to achieving economic and social development goals. This is expected to facilitate more funds entering the real economy [11][18] - The focus on high-quality development is emphasized, with the government planning to support large-scale equipment updates and the renewal of consumer goods, with an estimated investment of over 3 trillion yuan in the next five years [24][33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is concentrating on sectors such as smart connected vehicles, new materials, and low-altitude economy to accelerate the development of new productive forces [25][35]

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