晨会纪要 资料来源：同花顺，东海证券研究所 4.市场数据 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------|----------------|----------|--------| | 表 2 市场表现 2024/6/28 | 名称 | 单位 | 收盘价 | 变化 | | | 融资余额 | 亿元 , 亿元 | 14493 | -62 | | | 北向资金 | 亿元 | 49.48 | / | | 资金 | 南向资金 | 亿港元 | 36.62 | / | | | 逆回购到期量 | 亿元 | 100 | / | | | 逆回购操作量 | 亿元 | 500 | / | | | 1 年期 MLF | % | 2.5 | / | | | 1 年期 LPR | % | 3.45 | / | | | 5 年期以上 LPR | % | 3.95 | / | | 国内利率 | DR001 | %,BP | 1.9146 | 3.82 | | | DR007 | %,BP | 2.1664 | 4.47 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证Table_Authors] 券分析师 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 联系人 梁帅奇 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -37% -28% -20% -11% -3% 6% 14% 23-06 23-09 23-12 24-03 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相table_product] 关研究 1.缝制机械需求改善,智能化设备渗 透率有望提升——机械设备行业周 报(20240617-20240623) [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 设备更新政策有助需求释放,长期关注 ] 海外拓展及创新进程 ——机械设备行业周报(20240624-20240630) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 行业复盘:复盘2010年以来指数表现,机械设备指数在多个节点表现强于沪深300。机械 设备行业子板块众多,发展路径各有特点。工程机械等传统机械为周期性行业,过往受基 建、房地产等政策影响较大。锂电、光伏、半导体设备等新领域与传统机械投资逻 ...

总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 4. 风险提示 ..................................................................................... 8 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 图表目录 图 1 GDP 增速与 PMI ， % ............................................................................................................. | 4 | | 图 2 制造业 PMI ， % ........... ...

比分别为-20.8%、-35.4%、-19.6%。6 月召开的国常会提到"继续研究储备新的去库存、 稳市场政策措施"，如果政策效果持续性逐步弱化，新房销售未能企稳向上，未来可能还会 有接续政策举措出台。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/17 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 美债收益率、美元指数均上升，人民币小幅贬值。6 月 28 日当周，10 年期美债收益率 均值为 4.2725%，较上周均值上升 2.3 个 BP。美元指数均值为 105.7749，环比 0.38%； 离岸人民币汇率均值贬值 0.22%至 7.2942。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|----------------------------------------|-------|--------------------|------------------------------|---------------------------|-------| | | 北向资金、融资余额与上证指数，亿元，点 | 图 | 10 ...

公 司 研 究 买入(首次覆盖) [卓胜微( Table_NewTitle] 300782.SZ):十年磨剑成就射 频龙头,自主可控构建强大内核 ——公司深度报告 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn -35% -21% -7% 7% 22% 36% 50% 65% 23-06 23-09 23-12 24-03 卓胜微 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.5G主推射频前端高速发展,国内 厂商产品升级扶摇直上——半导体 行业深度报告(七) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 射频开关业务国内龙头地位稳固,低噪声放大器业务成熟,市场规模扩张推动公司迅速 发展。1)全球射频市场高速扩张的背景下,分立器件仍将占据一席之地。据QY Research数据,2023年全球射频市场规模有望达313.10亿美元,同比增长15.02%;据 Yole数据,预计2023年全球射频分立器件占比射频前端市场份额为30.93%。2)公司为 国内射频开关龙头企业,2020年公司射频开关业务占全球的5%,排名第五,业务成熟度 比肩 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年6月28日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn Ø 1.采煤迈入无人化智能时代，综采装备技术升级正当时——机械设备行业深度报告 财经要闻 Ø 2.央行金融稳定局党支部：持续完善金融风险监测、预警和防控体系 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 1. 重点推荐 1.2. 企业利润回落的两大原因——国内观察：2024 年 5 月工业企业利润数据 ... 4 4. 市场数据 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨会纪要 1.1.采煤迈入无人化智能时代，综采装备技术升级正当时—— 证券分析师：谢建斌，执业证书编号：S0630522020001 我国采煤技术正进入智能化开采阶段。煤炭在我国能源供给中发挥"压舱石"作用，是我 国基础能源，2023 年全国原煤产量 47.11 亿吨创历史新高；而我国人口红利消退和矿井安 全事故多发，正制约我国煤炭供给。无 ...

Profit Trends - In May 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 4.3% in April[1][45] - The two-year average growth rate decline continues to narrow, with a decrease of 1.6 percentage points[20][60] Revenue and Profit Margins - The revenue profit margin rose to 5.9% in May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, but still lower than the 6.1% recorded in the same month last year[20][46] - Revenue growth increased from 3.3% in April to 3.8% in May, with industrial added value growing by 5.6% year-on-year[20][46] Sector Performance - The share of profits from downstream manufacturing increased to 24.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, while the public utility sector's share fell to 9.9%, down by 1.4 percentage points[2][48] - Black metal processing turned profitable in May, achieving a profit of 9.5 billion yuan, following three months of losses[9][38] Inventory Dynamics - By the end of May, the nominal inventory growth rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.1% in April, while actual inventory growth fell to 5.0%[21][66] - The divergence between nominal and actual inventory reflects weak replenishment momentum, indicating a need for stable domestic demand[31][66] Investment Returns - A decline in investment returns is identified as a potential reason for the slowdown in profit growth, with last year's May investment returns accounting for 20.8% of total profits[38][63]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the coal mining industry, particularly focusing on the transition to intelligent and automated mining technologies. Core Insights - The coal mining industry in China is entering a phase of intelligent mining, with a record coal production of 4.711 billion tons in 2023, marking a 3.35% increase year-on-year. This transition is driven by the need to reduce labor costs and enhance safety in mining operations [4][26]. - Government policies are actively promoting the direction of unmanned intelligent mining, with a target for major coal mines to achieve automation by 2025 and a significant increase in the proportion of intelligent mining operations by 2030 [4][23]. - Major coal-producing provinces are setting specific development goals, with leading companies taking the initiative to upgrade their operations towards intelligent mining, resulting in a market potential exceeding 100 billion yuan [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Mining Trends - The application of intelligent systems in coal mining significantly enhances operational efficiency and safety, transitioning from manual to automated processes [15][19]. - The mechanization level of large coal enterprises in China has reached 99.01% by 2022, indicating a high degree of automation in coal mining [15][17]. 2. Labor Shortages and Safety Concerns - The shortage of labor and rising operational costs are driving the demand for intelligent mining solutions, as the harsh working conditions deter younger workers from joining the industry [19][21]. - The report highlights the need for improved safety measures, as mining accidents have historically posed significant risks, with 1,990 fatalities reported from 2016 to 2022 [21][22]. 3. Policy Guidance - A series of government policies are in place to facilitate the transition to intelligent mining, including the "Energy Technology Revolution Innovation Action Plan" which aims for unmanned operations in key mining areas by 2030 [23][24]. - Local governments are also formulating specific plans to achieve intelligent mining, with targets set for various provinces to complete automation by 2025 [25]. 4. Market Potential - The intelligent mining market is projected to reach 33.93 billion yuan in 2024 and 36.25 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the ongoing transition to automation and intelligent systems [4][26]. - Leading companies in the sector, such as Tianma Zhikong and Zhengmeiji, are positioned to benefit significantly from this transition due to their advanced technologies and market presence [4][5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the strong demand in the tire industry, supported by favorable foreign trade conditions, which is expected to sustain the industry's prosperity [6][11][32] - The report recommends focusing on companies with early overseas expansion and stable production capacity, such as Sailun Tire, General Motors, and Linglong Tire, as they are well-positioned for growth in the global market [6][11][32] - The report notes that the domestic tire market is experiencing a shift towards overseas production, particularly in Southeast Asia, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and the growing global tire market [6][11][32] Group 2 - The report discusses Rongchang Bio, a leader in the domestic autoimmune and ADC fields, emphasizing its core product, Tai Tasi Pi, which is the world's first dual-target fusion protein [34][36] - The company has a rich pipeline of products under development, with significant investments in R&D, increasing from 216 million yuan in 2018 to 1.306 billion yuan in 2023 [14][34] - The report forecasts that Rongchang Bio will achieve revenues of 1.586 billion yuan, 2.175 billion yuan, and 2.952 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net losses expected to decrease over the same period [37]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a recovery in production and demand, supported by strong export performance and stable domestic consumption [70][71]. - Key raw material prices remain high, impacting production costs, but the overall demand for tires is expected to grow due to increased exports and stable domestic needs [68][70]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Cost - Major raw material prices are maintaining high levels, with May 2024 prices for butadiene at 11,357.29 CNY/ton (down 1.35% MoM, up 48.06% YoY), natural rubber at 1,700.75 USD/ton (up 3.66% MoM, up 23.65% YoY), and styrene-butadiene rubber at 13,481.25 CNY/ton (up 1.27% MoM, up 16.27% YoY) [4][5]. Production - In May 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 93.4 million units, a YoY increase of 9.47% and a MoM increase of 4.42% [19]. - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 78.98%, slightly down from the previous month but up YoY, while the operating rate for all-steel tires was 58.86%, showing a decline [27]. Demand - Exports of new inflatable rubber tires in May 2024 totaled 5.638 million units, reflecting a YoY increase of 4.76% and a MoM increase of 3.56% [24]. - The demand for natural rubber in China was 600,000 tons in May 2024, down 2.02% MoM but up 1.61% YoY, with production rising significantly [7]. Industry News - Continental's tire factory expansion in Hefei has commenced production, expected to reach an annual capacity of 18 million units by 2027 [61]. - Yokohama Rubber is expanding its passenger tire business in India with a loan of 82 million USD to enhance production capacity [63]. Monthly Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with established overseas production capabilities and strong market positions, such as Sailun Tire, General Motors, and Linglong Tire, as they are well-positioned for growth in the global market [70].