本周外资净流出、融资余额减少。7 月 5 日当周，北向资金累计净流出 139.47 亿元， 融资余额累计减少 69.06 亿元 ( 截至 7 月 4 日 )。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 1.国家主席习近平出席上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十四次会议 《人工智能全球治理上海宣言》提到，促进人工智能发展，释放人工智能在医疗、教 育、交通、工业等各领域的应用潜力；维护人工智能安全；构建人工智能治理体系。 会议指出，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能不强，通胀出现高位回落 趋势但仍具粘性，主要经济体经济增长和货币政策有所分化。我国经济运行仍面临有效需 求不足、社会预期偏弱等挑战。要精准有效实施稳健的货币政策，更加注重做好逆周期调 节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，着力扩大内需、提振信心，推动经济 良性循环。 （信息来源：中国证监会） 7 月 4 日，美联储公布 7 月货币政策会议纪要。"绝大多数"美联储官员评估称，经济 增长似乎正在放缓，他们认为目前的政策立场是限制性的。核心 PCE 涨幅较小，表明通胀 取得了明显进展。不过，美联储官员也表示，在"有更多信 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证Table_Authors] 券分析师 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -40% -32% -23% -14% -6% 3% 12% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相table_product] 关研究 1.设备更新政策有助需求释放,长期 关注海外拓展及创新进程——机械 设 备 行 业 周 报 ( 20240624- 20240630) [table_main] 投资要点: [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 工具行业跟踪:海外库存有望回归正 ] 轨,锂电化进程持续推进 ——机械设备行业周报(20240701-20240705) ➢ 海外渠道商逐渐走出库存扰动期,有望带动工具行业订单修复。过去几年,外部宏观因素 对美国五金工具、园林工具等商品零售造成扰动。2020年,因海运运力不足、供应链调整 等情况,部分 ...

Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile's June 2024 wholesale sales reached 225,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.30% and a month-on-month increase of 8.81% [5] - Changan's self-owned passenger vehicle sales in June 2024 were 138,300 units, up 0.12% year-on-year and 12.23% month-on-month [5] - Changan Ford's June 2024 sales were 19,500 units, down 3.18% year-on-year but up 8.98% month-on-month [5] - Changan Mazda's June 2024 sales were 5,535 units, down 25.31% year-on-year and 7.18% month-on-month [5] - Changan's self-owned new energy vehicle sales in June 2024 reached 63,600 units, up 60.03% year-on-year and 15.63% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 33.66% [26] - Avatr, a Changan brand, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with AL SAQER GROUP in the UAE, aiming to expand its presence in the Middle East market [10] - Avatr will be the first to adopt Huawei's Qiankun ADS 3.0 system, featuring advanced autonomous driving capabilities and triple LiDAR [11][28] Power Industry - China's electricity consumption in 2023 grew by 6.70%, with an electricity elasticity coefficient of 1.29 [13] - In Q1 2024, the electricity elasticity coefficient rose to 2.35, with electricity consumption growing by 9.80% [13] - China's total electricity consumption is expected to reach 98,556.06 billion kWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.85% [13] - The national power generation is projected to reach 102,151.81 billion kWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.66% [14] - The power market has formed four trading forms: medium and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary trading, and capacity trading, with green certificate trading supporting environmental value [15] - The power industry is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms, with growth and defensive advantages, particularly for leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and green power [17] Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with a significant increase in selling pressure [21] - The semiconductor sector dropped 3.00%, with large single-day net outflows exceeding 1.8 billion yuan [37] - Only two sectors in the A-share market closed higher, with over 24% of sectors falling more than 3% [47] - The top five declining sectors included education, tourism, and real estate, with significant net outflows in sectors like semiconductors, software development, and banking [47][48]

[证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn [ | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | | |-------------------------------|---------------| | 收盘价 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | | | A 股 /B 股 ( 百万股 ) | 817,087/164,1 | | 资产负债率 (%) | | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | | | 个月内最高 / 最低价 | | 13.58 61 1.78 1.60 -32% -18% -4% 9% 23% 37% 51% 65% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 长安汽车 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《长安汽车(000625):新能源、出 口销量同环比双增,与广汽共谋高质 量发展 — — 公 司 简 评 报 告 》 2024.06.07 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件:长安汽车发布2024年6 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年7月4日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.富安娜（002327）：匠心铸就艺术美学，品牌恒久远——公司深度报告 财经要闻 ➢ 2.美联储公布6月货币政策会议纪要。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 3. A 股市场评述 1. 重点推荐 == 4. 市场数据 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 晨会纪要 1.1.富安娜（002327）：匠心铸就艺术美学，品牌恒久远—— 证券分析师：谢建斌，执业证书编号：S0630522020001 公司以重投入、慢姿态的匠心精神沉淀艺术内核、夯实供应链内功，实现高毛利高净利， 铸就传统消费行业里的稀缺品牌资产。2023 年以来股价逆势上涨，一方面得益于基础扎实、 业绩兑现，另一方面作为红利资产配置价值凸显。往后看，店效修复（相较优秀水平仍存 10% 以上差距）、拓店提速（门店数落后于罗莱生活和水星家纺 1000 家以上）， ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power industry, highlighting its growth potential and defensive characteristics [3][54] Core Views - The power industry exhibits both growth and defensive attributes, driven by increasing electricity demand, stable supply, and ongoing power sector reforms [3][54] - Electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual increase of 6.85% in 2024, driven by terminal electrification and industrial upgrades [3][9] - The supply side is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a stable competitive landscape and a rapid increase in the proportion of new energy sources [3][27] Demand Side Analysis - Electricity demand shows resilience to economic fluctuations, with the electricity elasticity coefficient rising to 2.35 in Q1 2024 [3][9] - Terminal electrification, industrial upgrades, and extreme weather conditions are key drivers of electricity demand growth [3][12] - The third industry, particularly sectors like wholesale, retail, and accommodation, has seen significant growth in electricity consumption, with a 12.2% increase in 2023 [13][14] - Industrial electrification is expected to reach 28.2%-30.6% by 2025, further boosting electricity demand [12] Supply Side Analysis - The power supply is steadily increasing, with new energy sources like wind and solar rapidly expanding their share in the total installed capacity [27][32] - In 2023, new solar installations reached 216.02GW, accounting for 58.53% of the total new installations, while wind power accounted for 21.52% [32] - State-owned enterprises dominate the power supply landscape, with a stable competitive structure and high barriers to entry [27][29] - The total installed capacity is expected to grow, with projections of 102151.81 billion kWh in 2024, a 14.66% increase from the previous year [3][36] Power Market and Policy Reforms - Power market reforms are accelerating, with the introduction of new rules and mechanisms to improve the efficiency and flexibility of the power system [45][46] - The power market has formed four trading types: medium and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary trading, and capacity trading, with green certificate trading also being introduced [3][48] - The reform aims to enhance the profitability of new energy sources and improve the valuation system of the power industry [48] Valuation and Dividend Policy - The power industry's valuation remains attractive, with high dividend payouts providing defensive advantages [51] - In 2023, the average dividend payout ratios for thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power were 37.54%, 202.67%, 44.71%, 26.44%, and 28.39%, respectively, all higher than the CSI 300 average of 36.45% [3][51] - Policy-driven initiatives, such as state-owned enterprise valuation management, are expected to further enhance the industry's valuation [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in thermal, hydro, nuclear, and green power sectors, such as Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, China Yangtze Power, and China General Nuclear Power [55] - These companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing power reforms, increasing electricity demand, and favorable policy environment [54][55]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated solid performance with a focus on high gross and net profit margins, leveraging its brand assets in the traditional consumer sector. The stock price has risen against the trend in 2023, supported by strong fundamentals and performance realization. Future growth is expected through store efficiency recovery and accelerated store expansion [1][6]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 2023 gross margin of 55.63%, an increase of 3.63 percentage points from 2019. The net profit margin reached 18.88% in 2023, with a consistent marketing expenditure and a decline in management fee ratio to 3.74% [3][6]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 90% for the past three years, with a 2023 payout ratio of 95%, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.72% [3]. Home Textile Industry - The home textile market was valued at 128 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 6% from 2009 to 2022. The demand is driven by various consumption scenarios, with a strong correlation between market size and marriage registrations [4]. - The industry is characterized by a pyramid structure, with leading companies enjoying advantages in brand strength and offline channels. The market concentration is expected to increase as top players leverage their brand and channel strengths [4]. National Expansion and Digitalization - The company is focusing on national expansion and enhancing operational efficiency through digitalization. It has centralized procurement with leading suppliers and established a robust supply chain system, maintaining a production capacity utilization rate of around 90% [5][6]. - The company has improved its human efficiency, with revenue per employee increasing from 110,000 yuan in 2018 to 140,000 yuan in 2023, aided by the implementation of various digital systems [5][91]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 622.21 million yuan, 676.64 million yuan, and 726.68 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.76%, 8.75%, and 7.40% [6][99]. - The anticipated P/E ratios for the next three years are 14, 13, and 12 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年7月3日 [table_main] 重点推荐 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240703 ➢ 1.卓胜微（300782.SZ）：十年磨剑成就射频龙头，自主可控构建强大内核——公司深度报 告 财经要闻 3. A 股市场评述 晨会纪要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | | | 卓胜微（ 300782.SZ | | 1.1. 构建强大内核——公司深度报告 | ）：十年磨剑成就射频龙头，自主可控 | | | | 证券分析师：方霁，执业证书 ...

行 业 研 究 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 头部酒企批价企稳,股东会战略坚定 ] ——食品饮料行业周报(2024/6/24-2024/6/30) [table_main] 投资要点: ➢ 二级市场表现:上周食品饮料板块下跌1.71%,沪深300指数下跌0.97%,食品饮料板块在 31个申万一级板块中排名第11位。子板块方面,上周各板块均下跌。个股方面,上周涨幅 前五为海南椰岛,阳光乳业,加隆股份,元组股份,金达威分别上涨4.7%、2.6%、2.2%、 1.6%、0.6%。跌幅前五为会稽山,中葡股份,舍得酒业,交大昂立,重庆啤酒,分别下跌 20.3%、12.4%、12.3%、10.9%、10.1%。 ➢ 白酒:飞天批价企稳,五粮液和泸州老窖股东大会战略坚定。五粮液股东大会:预计2024 年继续实现稳健的两位数增长,分红率有望继续提升。公司持续完善产品结构,第八代五 粮液将遵循量价平衡原则,持续优化投放节奏和商家结构,不盲目求增。五粮液1618、39 度、45度、68度五粮液等将打造增量。泸州老窖股东大会:经营目标为2024年营业收入同 比增长不低于15%。公司战略规划是在 ...

Group 1: Battery and Energy Storage Industry - The virtual power plant peak regulation has been implemented, increasing the heat of grid-type energy storage. Major operators like State Grid and Telida are participating in power spot trading with a total adjustable capacity of approximately 300MW. From June 1 to 23, 2024, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 534,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with an expected total sales of 11.5 million units for the year, up 20% year-on-year [34][35] - The supply side of the industry is adjusting in an orderly manner, stabilizing prices. Lithium salt prices are fluctuating due to supply-demand negotiations, while the price of lithium iron phosphate is at the breakeven point. The demand for graphite anodes is slightly improving, but prices remain near cost levels. The demand for separators is stable, and the overall demand for electrolytes is steady, although prices are declining due to capacity impacts [34][36] - The energy storage sector is experiencing short-term low-price competition, with a focus on large-capacity cell mass production and the rising popularity of grid-type energy storage. The industry is expected to see significant advancements in large-capacity cells and modular PCS systems [36] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry - The pharmaceutical and biological sector has shown a decline of 3.48% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.51 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has decreased by 21.09%, also lagging behind the index by 21.98 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is at 24.1 times, which is historically low [22][40] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the adjustment of the 2024 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which includes extending the application conditions for drugs approved after January 1, 2019, and enhancing supply guarantee management for drugs that have not been supplied for nearly three years [39][40] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector remains weak, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality stocks in high-growth sub-sectors, particularly innovative drugs, branded traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, and specialty raw materials [40] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The domestic interest rate bond market has strengthened again, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 2.21%, down 34 basis points from the beginning of the year. The market is supported by a manufacturing PMI of 49.5, which has been below the growth line for two consecutive months [7][14] - The net financing of local government bonds is expected to total 22,739 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a projected peak in government bond supply. However, the effective continuation of project reserves needs to be monitored [13][25] - The current environment of high dividend ETFs has seen a rise of nearly 7.5% in H1 2024, outperforming the broader market index by approximately 6%. The bond market is also experiencing a bull market, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields down by nearly 35bps and 40bps, respectively, since the beginning of the year [5][7] Group 4: RF Switch and Amplifier Market - The company holds a leading position in the domestic RF switch market, with a global market share of 5% in 2020, ranking fifth. The RF market is expected to reach a size of $31.31 billion in 2023, growing by 15.02% year-on-year [3][41] - The company has achieved full coverage in its low-noise amplifier (LNA) business, supporting all frequency ranges for 5G sub-6GHz. The combination of its leading position in switches and comprehensive layout in LNAs positions the company well for market expansion [3][41] - The RF front-end module market is expected to grow, with the company increasing its revenue share from module business significantly, reaching 36.34% in 2023. The company is expanding its product offerings from receiving modules to more complex transmitting modules [42][43]