晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月05日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241105 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺S0630521110001 zjk@email.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.科德数控（688305）：新签订单量价齐升，股权激励计划彰显发展信心 ➢ 2.巨星农牧（603477）：成本保持低位，产能稳健增加——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.行业加速整合，集中度持续提升—连锁药店行业研究框架专题报告 ➢ 4.长安汽车（000625）：10月新能源同环比高增，强产品周期有望持续——公司简评报告 ➢ 5.贵州茅台（600519）：Q3业绩符合预期，经营延续稳健——公司简评报告 ➢ 6.新乳业（002946）：低温产品加速增长，华东区表现较佳——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的 议案。 ➢ 2.欧元区10月制造业PMI终值46，预期45.9。 证券 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The company maintains a solid leading position in the diamond wire industry, with successful advancements in tungsten wire research and development, and a stable financial condition. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 476 million, 578 million, and 766 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25.76, 21.21, and 16.00 times respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 282 million yuan, down 79.72% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw operating revenue of 408 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 35.05%, with a net profit of 6 million yuan, down 92.58% quarter-on-quarter [6][10] Market Position and Product Development - The company faced dual pressure on both volume and price in the diamond wire market, with third-quarter sales volume at 26.088 million kilometers, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.51%. The sales gross margin was 4.69%, and the net margin was 1.93%, with unit profit declining to 0.23 yuan per kilometer [8] - The company has made significant progress in tungsten wire production, achieving a monthly output exceeding 1 million kilometers through innovative processes including hot drawing, warm drawing, and cold drawing. This positions the company to rapidly expand tungsten wire production capacity [8][9] Technological Advancements - The introduction of diamond non-metallic coating technology and high cutting force technology has significantly enhanced the competitiveness of the company's diamond wire products. These innovations reduce costs and improve efficiency, allowing the company to capture more market share even during industry downturns [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its long-term core value despite the global semiconductor economic downturn, with a projected recovery in gross margins [8] - The company has accumulated a significant number of patents and continues to enhance its R&D capabilities, positioning itself as a leader in the electronic gas sector [6][9] - The company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure, which is expected to support future growth [6][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of November 4, 2024, the company's closing price is 31.52, with a total share capital of 52,941 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 10.82% [5] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.382 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.29%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6% to 234 million [11] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 30.48%, down 6.33 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.908 billion, with a net profit of 307 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% [10] Future Projections - The company is expected to see net profits of 3.07 billion, 4.15 billion, and 5.25 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 54, 40, and 31 [8] - The company’s revenue growth is projected to recover with increases of 18.1%, 20.2%, and 21.8% in the coming years [10]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Neutral" based on recent performance and market conditions [2]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall automotive index down 0.44% this week, ranking 17th among 31 industries. The decline in the automotive sector is attributed to various sub-segments, including a 2.29% drop in passenger vehicles and a 3.46% drop in automotive parts [2][15]. - New energy vehicle sales have surged, with BYD achieving a monthly sales record of 502,700 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67% and a month-on-month increase of 20% [3][12]. - The third quarter results indicate that the automotive sector generated revenue of 971.65 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline in net profit by 10% [5][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 502,700 units in October, with significant contributions from models like the Song L DM-i and Qin L DM-i [3][12]. - Huawei's vehicle deliveries increased by 228% year-on-year, showcasing strong growth in the new energy vehicle segment [3][12]. - The overall automotive market is expected to see a seasonal uptick in the fourth quarter due to traditional demand spikes and vehicle replacement programs [5][14]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week was characterized by a 1.68% decline in the CSI 300 index, with the automotive sector down 0.44% [2][15]. - Sub-segments such as commercial vehicles and automotive services showed varied performance, with commercial passenger vehicles up 4.93% while automotive parts experienced a decline in several categories [15][19]. Industry Data Tracking - In October, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.812 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while new energy vehicles saw a 49% increase in retail sales [24][36]. - The heavy truck market reported a total of 63,000 units sold in October, reflecting a 9% month-on-month increase but a 22% year-on-year decline [36][37]. - The dealer inventory warning index for October was reported at 50.5%, indicating a slight decrease in inventory levels compared to previous months [38][41].

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclical and growth dynamics, with significant pressure at the current cycle's bottom and strong domestic growth potential [6][9] - In 2023, China's semiconductor imports reached $351 billion, while exports were only $137.1 billion, indicating a dependency on foreign technology [6][9] - The global semiconductor sales growth in 2024 is primarily driven by a significant increase in storage module prices, with a year-on-year increase of 20-70% since Q3 2023 [7][8] Group 2: Yangjie Technology (300373) Performance - Yangjie Technology reported a record high revenue of 4.424 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.48% [11] - The automotive electronics segment saw a remarkable growth of 60% year-on-year, driven by strong domestic demand and high entry barriers for automotive-grade products [12] - The company maintains a high capacity utilization rate and is expanding production, particularly in automotive electronics, with expectations for continued growth [13][14] Group 3: Boya Bio (300294) Overview - Boya Bio achieved a revenue of 1.245 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 43.16% year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment of certain subsidiaries [17][18] - The company reported a 12.39% increase in plasma collection volume, reaching 387.44 tons, indicating a positive trend in its blood products business [18] - Boya Bio's R&D pipeline is progressing, with several products in clinical trials and expected market entry in the coming years [18] Group 4: Huayang Group (002906) Financial Performance - Huayang Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with net profit rising by 54% [20][21] - The company is experiencing rapid growth in automotive electronics and precision die-casting products, benefiting from increased demand in these sectors [20][21] - Huayang Group's global expansion strategy is yielding results, with new contracts from various domestic and international automotive brands [21][22] Group 5: Hengli Petrochemical (600346) Market Position - Hengli Petrochemical reported a total revenue of 177.857 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 2.71% year-on-year, but net profit declined by 10.45% [23][24] - The fluctuation in crude oil prices has impacted product margins and inventory levels, with Brent crude averaging $78.82 per barrel in Q3 2024 [24] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-performance resin and new materials projects, which are expected to be fully operational by the second half of 2024 [25][26]

Industry Overview - The tire industry has shifted from capacity expansion to technological innovation, brand building, energy conservation, and new energy vehicle development, driven by policy support and industrial upgrading [11][12][14] - Key policies affecting the tire industry include environmental regulations, trade policies, and technological advancements, which influence export earnings and overseas factory construction [3] - The industry is moving towards green transformation and internationalization, with a focus on circular economy and sustainable practices [11][14] Key Indicators and Trends - Raw material prices, particularly natural and synthetic rubber, have a strong negative correlation with tire company profitability [4][26] - Sea freight costs directly impact export competitiveness, with companies optimizing supply chain management through overseas factory expansion [4][31] - Domestic tire companies are increasing their global market share through capacity expansion and improved product quality [4][37] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Semi-steel tire production and operating rates reached record highs in 2024, with a 7.87% year-on-year increase in production [33][34] - Full-steel tire production faced pressure due to real estate and logistics impacts, with a 2.61% year-on-year decline in production [36] - Overseas demand accounts for over 70% of total demand, with logistics and vehicle production being key indicators of tire demand growth [5][39][41] Cost Structure and Raw Materials - Domestic tire companies have lower labor and management costs compared to overseas competitors, but face higher raw material costs [24][25] - Natural rubber prices are influenced by supply constraints, with ANRPC member countries experiencing a 2.48% year-on-year decline in production in September 2024 [27] - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by upstream raw material costs, with butadiene prices significantly impacting synthetic rubber prices in 2024 [28] Overseas Expansion and Trade Policies - Chinese tire companies are expanding overseas production to avoid trade barriers, with significant investments in Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America [17][20] - The US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on tires from various countries, with Chinese companies facing rates ranging from 12.33% to 48.39% [18][19] - Overseas factories benefit from favorable tax policies and lower labor costs, particularly in Southeast Asia [17][20] Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Domestic tire companies are gaining market share as international giants exit the Chinese market, particularly in the full-steel tire segment [37] - The rise of new energy vehicles is creating new demand for tires, with domestic companies successfully supplying nearly half of the top-selling new energy models in 2023 [54][56] - Brand value and product innovation are becoming increasingly important, with companies like Sailun and Linglong making significant strides in brand recognition and technological advancements [53][54] Historical Performance of Leading Companies - Leading tire companies such as Michelin, Goodyear, and Bridgestone have shown consistent growth in revenue and EPS, driven by technological innovations and strategic acquisitions [58][60][64] - Domestic companies like Sailun, Linglong, and Sentury have demonstrated strong growth trajectories, with significant expansions in overseas production and market share [66][69][71][75]

行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月04日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -17% -4% 8% 21% 34% 46% 23-11 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.金融街论坛强化资本市场定位，把 握三季报超预期带来的配置机遇— —非银金融行业周报（20241014- 20241020） 2.9月产寿险增速环比回落，关注新 定价产品全面上线后的价值提升— —上市险企2024年9月保费点评 3.SFISF与财政部表态提振市场信 心，把握政策催化下的板块配置机遇 ——非银金融行业周报（20241007- 20241013） [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 券商"跨境理财通 ] "试点启动，非银三 季报表现稳健夯实配置基础 ——非银金融行业周报（20241028-20241103） ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月04日 食 品 饮 料 贵州茅台 沪深300 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/11/04 | | 收盘价 | 1,548.20 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 125,620 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 125,620/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 13.63% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 7.85 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 26.09 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 1,910.00/1,245.83 | [Table_QuotePic] -37% -28% -19% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.37% to 474 million yuan [6] - The low-temperature product segment is experiencing accelerated growth, particularly in the East China region, with double-digit revenue growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt [7] - Profitability is improving due to product structure optimization and cost reductions, with a net profit margin of 6.54% and a gross margin of 28.83% in Q3 2024 [8] - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube Strategy," emphasizing low-temperature products and modern media marketing to achieve nationwide expansion [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.92% to 177 million yuan [6][7] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 563 million, 645 million, and 811 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65, 0.75, and 0.94 yuan [9][10] Product and Market Analysis - The low-temperature product category is a strategic focus, with significant growth driven by new product development and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel expansion [7] - The East China region showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth in Q3 2024, while the western region faced challenges due to the overall consumption environment [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin improved by 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix adjustments [8] - The report highlights a slight increase in sales expense ratio to 15.27% due to heightened market competition, while management and financial expense ratios showed improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.39% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.29 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 first-level sectors [4][15] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the liquor industry, with Q3 revenue growth slowing down to 0.73% year-on-year and net profit growth at 2.05%, indicating a significant deceleration compared to the first half of the year [5] - The beer sector is seeing continuous cost improvements, with a potential recovery in consumption scenarios, although Q3 revenue was under pressure due to weak dining consumption [6] - The snack segment maintained rapid revenue and profit growth in Q3, benefiting from channel expansion and declining raw material costs [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end liquor and regional leaders, suggesting a focus on companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.39% decline, with most sub-sectors also experiencing downturns [4][15] - Top gainers included Zhu Laoliu, Youyou Food, and Jia Jia Food, with increases of 48.28%, 29.19%, and 27.84% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in Mogao Co., Richen Co., and Xiangpiaopiao, with drops of 21.34%, 13.17%, and 10.74% respectively [4][15] Liquor Industry - The liquor sector's Q3 performance showed a significant slowdown, with high-end liquor maintaining stable performance while mid-tier brands faced pressure [5] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on controlling inventory and optimizing supply-demand structures, with a strong dividend plan from Wuliangye for 2024-2026 [5] - Current prices for major liquor brands show slight adjustments, with Moutai's price at 2350 yuan, down 10 yuan week-on-week [5][19] Beer Industry - The beer sector is facing challenges with a 1.5% decline in production year-on-year, but cost reductions in raw materials like barley are improving profitability [6] - The report anticipates a recovery in beer consumption driven by policy incentives, with a long-term trend towards premiumization [6] Snack and Other Consumer Goods - The snack segment is expected to perform well in Q4 due to strong product offerings and channel expansion [7] - The restaurant supply chain is highlighted as a growth area, benefiting from policy stimuli and the need for cost control among restaurant operators [7] - The dairy segment is seeing a shift towards health-oriented products, with a recommendation to focus on companies enhancing product structures and direct-to-consumer channels [7] Key Company Updates - Notable company performances include: - Salted Fish's revenue growth of 28.49% in Q3 [38] - Three squirrels achieving a 56.46% increase in revenue [38] - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing solid growth in their financial results [37][39]