Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - In July 2024, residential prices in 70 major cities continued to decline month-on-month, with the decrease in second and third-tier cities being greater than that in first-tier cities [1][3] - Year-on-year, the decline in second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities was greater than that in second and third-tier cities [2][3] - The month-on-month decline in new residential prices for first-tier cities was -0.5%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of -0.6% and third-tier cities -0.7% [1][3] - The year-on-year decline for new residential prices in first-tier cities was -4.2%, with specific cities like Beijing at -3.3%, Shanghai at 4.4%, Shenzhen at -8%, and Guangzhou at -9.9% [2][3] - The second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of -8.8%, with Beijing at -7.2%, Shanghai at -5.6%, Shenzhen at -9.8%, and Guangzhou at -12.4% [2][3] Summary by Sections New Residential Prices - In July 2024, first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.5% in new residential prices, while second-tier cities declined by -0.6% and third-tier cities by -0.7% [1][3] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a decline of -4.2%, second-tier cities -4.8%, and third-tier cities -5.8% [2][3] Second-hand Residential Prices - Month-on-month, first-tier cities' second-hand residential prices declined by -0.5%, second-tier cities by -0.8%, and third-tier cities by -0.8% [2][3] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a decline of -8.8%, second-tier cities -8.2%, and third-tier cities -8.1% [2][3] Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the suppressed demand from first-tier cities is beginning to drive second-hand transactions, while the "sell old to buy new" demand is lagging [3] - Companies focused on core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, are expected to benefit from the market recovery [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, new home sales saw an expanded year-on-year decline, with the average sales price also decreasing [2][3] - For the first seven months of 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount fell by 24.3% [2][8] - The average sales price per square meter for new homes dropped by 6.9% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 4.8% in July [2][8] - Development investment remains weak, with a cumulative new construction area down by 23.2% year-on-year and a cumulative development investment amount decreasing by 10.2% [2][8] - Funding for real estate development has also contracted, with a cumulative funding decrease of 21.3% year-on-year [3][8] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In July 2024, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the sales amount fell by 18.5% [2][8] - The average sales price for new homes in July was 0.98 million yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4.8% decline compared to the previous year [2][8] Development Investment - The cumulative new construction area for the first seven months of 2024 was 43,733 million square meters, down 23.2% year-on-year [2][8] - The cumulative development investment amount was 60,877 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.2% decrease year-on-year [2][8] Funding Situation - Cumulative funding for real estate development enterprises was 61,901 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year [3][8] - Domestic loans showed a smaller decline of 3.8% year-on-year, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 34.0% [3][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that core cities, where demand has been suppressed, may see an increase in second-hand home transactions, benefiting quality real estate companies like China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China [3][8] - The increase in second-hand home supply and price advantages over new homes are expected to sustain transaction activity [3][8]

东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|-----------|--------------------------------|----------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 | 2024 年 | 8 月 15 | 日星期四 | | 【东兴策略】外部冲击影响短期情绪 静待 A 股底部拐点（ 20240814 ） | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 外部市场调整影响短期情绪。 8 月 5 日全球股市出现调整，市场预期美国衰 | 上证指数 | | 2,877.36 | 0.94 | | 退和日本央行加息是主要推手。从美国来看，短期经济数据超出市场预期， | 深证成指 | | 8, ...

Group 1 - External market fluctuations are impacting short-term sentiment, with global stock markets adjusting due to concerns over a potential U.S. recession and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][5] - The report indicates that the probability of a U.S. recession has increased significantly, leading to expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][5] - A-share prices are currently at a bottom level, while major economies like the U.S. and Japan are at higher levels, suggesting a mismatch in economic cycles [2][5] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to maintain an internal-driven rhythm, awaiting a cyclical turning point, with policy measures expected to boost economic improvement in the second half of the year [2][5] - The report emphasizes that the key determinants of the Chinese capital market are policy and funding, with a historical tendency to resonate with international economic cycles [2][5] - The market is currently experiencing pressure from insufficient consumption and uncertain external demand, but there is confidence in achieving annual economic targets following recent policy announcements [2][5] Group 3 - The report highlights the risk of a significant downturn in technology stocks due to the bursting of the tech bubble, which could lead to substantial volatility in A-shares [3][6] - High-dividend stocks are identified as having strong investment value, particularly in a context where economic recovery is slow and interest rate cuts are anticipated [3][6] - The report suggests that sectors like military, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods are likely to show clearer signs of improvement due to policy support, making them attractive for investment [3][6] Group 4 - A-share indices experienced a decline following global market volatility, with small-cap and thematic indices showing larger drops, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [7][8] - The report notes that the real estate sector saw a significant rebound, driven by positive news, while previously strong sectors like technology and military faced declines [8] - The trading volume in the market has decreased, reflecting a typical weak market characteristic [7][8] Group 5 - The report provides a valuation distribution across various sectors, indicating significant variations in price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios among different industries [14] - For instance, the real estate sector shows a notably high P/E ratio of 192.61, while sectors like agriculture and media exhibit negative or low P/E ratios [14] - The report also highlights a downward trend in margin financing and securities lending, indicating reduced market activity [11][14]

银行行业：信贷弱需求延续，政策 有待加力 ——7 月社融金融数据点评 事件：8 月 13 日，人民银行发布 7 月社融金融数据。7 月社融新增 7708 亿， 同比多增 2342 亿；存量社融增速 8.2%，环比提升 0.1pct；7 月人民币贷款新 增 2600 亿，同比少增 859 亿；人民币贷款同比增速 8.7%，环比下降 0.1pct； M1 增速-6.6%，环比下降 1.6pct；M2 增速 6.3%，环比上升 0.1pct。 点评： 7 月社融同比多增，主要源自政府债、企业债发行。7 月社融新增 7708 亿， 同比多增 2342 亿；存量社融增速 8.2%，环比小幅回升 0.1pct。社融同比多增， 主要贡献源自政府债及企业债发行。7 月政府债券新增 6911 亿，同比多增 2802 亿；企业债券新增 2028 亿，同比多增 747 亿。人民币贷款减少 767 亿，社融 口径首次显现负值。展望全年，考虑到当前政府债发行提速以及去年下半年基 数不高，社融增速有望平稳于 8%。 信贷需求持续偏弱，稳增长政策有待续力。7 月是传统信贷淡季，人民币贷款 新增 2600 亿，同比少增 859 亿。分部门来 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 信心（20240813） 事件：贵州茅台公布 2024 年中报，24Q2 实现营业总收入 369.66 亿元，同比 +16.95%；营业收入 361.55 亿元，同比+17.31%；归母净利润 176.3 亿元，同 比+16.1%。公司业绩表现优异。 提价+非标贡献茅台酒增长，系列酒持续放量。24Q2 茅台酒收入 288.6 亿， 同比增长 12.92%，主要受益于去年茅台提价和非标酒继续放量的贡献。24Q2 系列酒收入 72.11 亿，同比增长 42.52%，系列酒增速显著加快，我们认为主 要有两方面原因：1 是茅台今年 5 月启动 1935 的升级工作，刺激渠道对老品 存货；2 是今年上半年茅台 1935 整体的任务完成出色。根据此前媒体报道， 今年 7 月茅台推出停货通知，表示"茅台 1935 酒已经超额完成 2024 年度各 项任务指标，为保证良性发展，经公司研究决定，即日起暂停投放茅台 1935 酒合同计划"。在 1935 出色表现的带动下，系列酒 Q2 保持快速的增长。 直营增速放缓，经销快速提升。24Q2直营渠道 ...

公 司 研 究 华峰化学（002064.SZ）：业绩同比 增长，产能持续扩张 2024 年 8 月 14 日 强烈推荐/维持 华峰化学 公司报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 华峰化学发布 2024 年半年报：公司上半年实现营业收入 137.44 亿元， YoY+8.89%，归母净利润 15.18 亿元，YoY+11.74%。 公司新产能释放带动产销量增长，盈利水平相应提升。从收入端看，2024 年 上半年，公司氨纶、己二酸板块较去年同期有新产能释放，主要产品的产销量 均同比增长，带动公司营收实现增长。从利润端看，公司上半年综合毛利率同 比小幅下降 0.96 个百分点至 16.52%，但由于公司销售费用率、管理费用率等 略有下降，导致公司净利润取得增长。 产能持续扩张，强化规模优势。公司深耕聚氨酯行业多年，主要产品规模较大， 其中氨纶产能与产量均位居全球第二、中国第一，聚氨酯原液和己二酸产量均 为全国第一，拥有较强的规模优势。根据公司 2023 年年报数据，公司氨纶产 能 32.5 万吨（其中 10 万吨产能于 2024 年 7 月正式达产），目前仍有 20 万吨 差别化氨纶 ...

着眼供给端变化，内需之重下政策 推进行业估值修复 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 8 月 13 日 看好/维持 非金属材料 行业报告 未来 3-6 个月行业大事： 8 月中旬统计局公布全国房地产、固定资产 投资数据和 70 个大中城市房价变化数据 资料来源：同花顺 行业基本资料 占比% | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------|-------| | 股票家数 | 76 | 1.67% | | 行业市值(亿元) | 6314.73 | 0.8% | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4814.62 | 0.76% | | 行业平均市盈率 | 24.48 | / | | 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 | | | 行业指数走势图 -40.4% -30.7% -21.0% -11.3% -1.6% 8.1% 建材 沪深300 8/14 11/13 2/12 5/13 8/12 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 分析师：赵军胜 010-66554088 zhaojs@dxzq.ne ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴计算机】计算机行业：地平线完成境外上市备案，享界 S9 搭载华为 端到端——汽车智能化板块动态追踪（20240812） 事件：1、8 月 9 日，证监会网站对《关于 HorizonRobotics（地平线机器人） 境外发行上市备案通知书》进行公示，标志着国内智驾龙头地平线赴港上市 迈出重要一步。 2、8 月 9 日晚，鸿蒙智行公布与北汽合作打造的享界 S9 上市 72 小时大定超 4800 台。享界 S9 车身搭载华为 ADS3.0 高阶智能驾驶系统，采用端到端类人 架构。1 个激光雷达、3 个毫米波雷达、12 个超声波雷达和 11 个高清摄像头 全行程感知，实现 360 度全范围覆盖。 点评：国内智驾龙头地平线完成境外上市备案，公司竞争优势显著。地平线 于今年 3 月向港交所递交上市申请，公司成立于 2015 年，具有智能驾驶领域 软件、硬件及工程能力，同时具备丰富量产经验，截至今年三月，公司软硬 一体的解决方案已获得 24 家 OEM 采用，装备于超过 230 款车型，中国十大 OEM 均已选择地平线的解决方案用于量 ...

银行行业：净息差阶段性企稳，资 产质量稳健 ——2Q24 行业主要监管数据点评 事件：8 月 9 日，国家金融监管总局发布 2024 年二季度商业银行主要监管指 标。商业银行2Q24实现净利润12,574亿，同比增长0.4%，平均ROE为8.91%， 平均 ROA 为 0.69%，不良贷款率 1.56%。 盈利表现：24H1 净利润增速环比小幅下降，主要是农商行拖累。 上半年商业银行净利润同比+0.4%，增速环比微降。24H1 商业银行实现净利 润 12,574 亿元，同比增长 0.4%，增速环比 24Q1 下降 0.3pct。 从净利息收入和非息收入表现来看：（1）规模增速放缓、息差环比持平，净利 息收入增长延续承压。在实体有效需求不足、监管引导优化供给的双重压力下， 今年以来银行资产规模增速持续放缓。6 月末总资产 370 万亿，同比增长 7.28%，相较 23Y、24Q1 分别放缓 3.68 pct、1.86pct。24H1 净息差环比 24Q1 持平于 1.54%。（2）Q2 债市波动有所加大，非息收入贡献环比小幅下降。年 初以来债券利率趋势下行，商业银行金融市场投资相关非息收入实现较好增 长，非息收 ...