Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gold industry for November 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market continues to exhibit strong return characteristics, with the price of gold reaching a historical high of $2,734 per ounce by the end of October 2024, reflecting a 32.2% increase from the beginning of the year [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the structural bull market in the gold industry, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and liquidity conditions, which enhance the asset's hedging properties [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Return Characteristics - The gold market in 2024 shows a robust return profile, with gold and RMB-denominated gold returns reaching 29.11% and 27.19% respectively, outperforming major asset classes [4][15]. - The report highlights that gold has provided excess returns compared to Brent crude oil, offshore RMB, the US dollar index, and the S&P 500, indicating its increased value as a hedge against risks and inflation [4][15]. 2. Factors Driving Gold Prices 2.1 Gold's Hedging Properties - The report discusses the significant correlation between gold prices and geopolitical risks, noting that current global war risks are at a historical high, positively impacting gold pricing [5][17]. - The geopolitical risk index has reached levels not seen since the 1973 Middle East War, suggesting continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing conflicts [5][17]. 2.2 Inflation Premium - Global inflation has shown strong persistence, with the average inflation rate rising from 2.6% (2010-2020) to 5.7% (2021-2024), coinciding with an increase in central bank gold reserves [6][27]. - The report indicates that the rising inflation data supports the effective elevation of gold's inflation premium [6][27]. 2.3 Exchange Rate Premium - The effectiveness of gold's exchange rate premium has been observed since 2020, with gold prices in G10 currencies reaching historical highs, reflecting the impact of global trade disputes on exchange rates [7][35]. - The report notes that the RMB gold premium may rise seasonally, particularly during the fourth quarter, aligning with traditional demand peaks [7][36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Cycle - The transition from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost gold prices, with historical data showing a 66.7% probability of price increases during previous rate-cutting cycles [8][37]. - The report estimates a potential maximum price increase for gold of 27.3%, targeting $3,315 per ounce [8][37]. 3. Related Companies - The report identifies several companies in the gold sector, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Yulong Shares (601028.SH), and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) as key players in the industry [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Petty Co., Ltd. [3][4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a revenue of 1.323 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.34%, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, up 630.85% year-on-year [3][4] - The normalization of overseas orders and the release of production capacity in Cambodia have contributed to profit enhancement, with expectations for steady growth in overseas business revenue [3][4] - The domestic brand "Jueyan" has seen rapid growth, with significant sales during promotional events, indicating strong market acceptance [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 477 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.61%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up 319.98% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 28.01%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the mid-year report, while the net profit margin was 11.80%, up 0.15 percentage points [3] Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 187 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 278 million yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.74 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.10 yuan [4][5] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its own brands, reducing reliance on agency business, and has successfully launched new products that cater to high-end consumer segments [4] - The "Jueyan" brand achieved over 10 million yuan in sales within the first four hours of a promotional event, ranking first in the pet snack category [4] Production Capacity - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of production capacity in Southeast Asia and the launch of new production facilities in New Zealand, which will contribute to revenue growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a positive outlook on its future performance [2][4] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown significant profit realization, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024 [2] - The seed business is expected to grow steadily, with both traditional and biotech breeding sectors showing promising potential [2] - The company's feed business, although under pressure, has shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 7-8% increase in pig feed sales [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 315.38% to 289 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.142 billion yuan, down 15.83% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 114.69% to 133 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming segment generated a profit of 200-250 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight increase in piglet costs but overall cost improvements [2] Business Segments - **Feed Business**: The company sold 3.9 million tons of feed in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.30% year-on-year decrease, with pig feed sales dropping by 10.29% to 3.05 million tons [2] - **Pig Farming**: The company's pig inventory exceeded 4 million heads by the end of September 2024, with a target of 6 million heads for the full year [2] - **Seed Business**: The company sold over 20 million kilograms of seeds in the first three quarters of 2024, a 50% year-on-year increase, with contract liabilities for seed business reaching nearly 1.4 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 368 million yuan, 828.78 million yuan, and 1.07476 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 55, 27, and 21 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Market Data - The company's 52-week stock price range is between 3.75 yuan and 7.35 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.229 billion yuan [4] - The company's total shares outstanding are 432.372 million, with all shares being tradable A-shares [4]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 特朗普在 2024 年美国大选中赢得多数票。 特朗普再次当选表明美国社会对通胀和移民容忍度降低。通胀是民主党在选 情中最大的软肋，实际生活成本的通胀压力可能并不与宏观数据一致。在没 有出现失业率攀升经济衰退的背景下，当权党派输掉竞选的情况比较少见。 特朗普再次当选，传统蓝州民主党得票率也不及传统红州共和党得票率，形 成"红潮"，共和党取得参议院主导地位，这反映了美国社会生态变化，促使 美国从自由主义再次转向保守，回归"常识"。 特朗普政策推行阻力较小。由于共和党赢得参议院，特朗普政策落地概率提 高，如对外关税、对内减税、减少监管等会进一步加强。马斯克的加入可能 对联邦政府改革带来新的变数，政策可能更加务实，注重效果。但在特朗普 第一任期内，不乏有企业界的高管加入，也不乏有短期内离职的情况。 货币政策取决于通胀，但未来通胀压力并不明确。尽管市场认为特朗普可能 对美联储有所施压，但从经济的客观走势来看，特朗普第一任期内货币政策 基本合理。货币政策的节奏最终取决于通胀压力。以 1984~1986 年降息周期 为例，降息触发点在于当时 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend following the U.S. election results, which have reduced uncertainty factors[2] - The potential impact of increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the new U.S. administration could affect Chinese exports by approximately 10%, translating to a GDP impact of 1-2%[2] - The market is likely to experience a strong performance driven by domestic monetary and fiscal policies, with significant policy announcements anticipated in December[3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The index is currently in a strong oscillation phase, with high trading volumes expected as policies are implemented[4] - Investment focus should shift towards consumer sectors, cyclical stocks, and areas related to self-sufficiency, particularly in technology and consumption[4] - Caution is advised regarding export-oriented sectors due to potential pressures from U.S. policies, while maintaining a cautiously optimistic view on the export chain[4]

Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals are expected to improve in the short term, with consumption stimulus policies likely to enhance Q4 consumption data[2] - The current fiscal policy focuses on local government debt reduction, alleviating fiscal pressure and creating space for economic development[2] - The finance minister has indicated a faster pace of bond issuance, aiming to quickly generate tangible work output, making a GDP rebound in Q4 a high probability event[2] Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by a strong oscillation without sustained downward pressure[3] - Market confidence is recovering, with active participation and a favorable rotation among sectors, particularly in restructuring and technology[3] - The upcoming U.S. election results may introduce volatility, but the overall strong oscillation pattern of the index is expected to remain unchanged[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with low interest rates required to stabilize confidence and address insufficient demand[4] - The expected core yield range for 10Y and 30Y government bonds is approximately 2.10%-2.20% and 2.25%-2.35%, respectively[4] U.S. Market Perspective - The U.S. economy is not expected to face significant recession risks in the near term, with traditional consumption peaks in Q3 and Q4[5] - The U.S. stock market is showing strong performance, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 5% and 8% respectively in recent months[5] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are expected to rise due to structural supply constraints, while copper consumption is projected to increase as financing conditions improve[5] - The report suggests a cautious yet optimistic view on A-shares, with a recommendation to overweight A-shares and maintain a watchful stance on commodities like gold and copper[5]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 沉趋势——2024 年三季报点评（20241031） 事件：近期，公司发布 2024 年三季度报告。前三季度，公司实现营业收入 36.27 亿元，同比增长 10.90%；归属于母公司所有者净利润 10.40 亿元，同 比增长 16.41%；归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益净利润 9.91 亿元， 同比增长15.16%。单三季度，公司实现营业收入12.14亿元，同比增长10.53%； 实现归母净利润 3.18 亿元，同比增长 8.33%。 业绩符合预期，各项业务稳健增长。1）整体来看，单三季度公司实现营业收 入 12.14 亿元，同比增长 10.53%；实现归母净利润 3.18 亿元，同比增长 8.33%。 公司业绩在外部压力下仍保持稳健增长，彰显经营实力。2）分业务收入来看， 订阅业务稳健增长，授权业务企稳回暖。报告期内，国内个人办公服务订阅 业务收入 7.62 亿元，同比增长 17.24%；国内机构订阅及服务业务收入 2.48 亿元，同比增长 0.02%；国内机构授权业务收入 1.43 亿元，同比增长 8.97%。 个人业 ...

Group 1: Election Outcome and Political Implications - Trump's re-election indicates a decreased tolerance for inflation and immigration issues among the American public[2] - The Democratic Party's vote share in traditional blue states fell below that of the Republican Party in red states, indicating a "red wave" and a shift towards conservatism[2] - The Republican Party's control of the Senate enhances the likelihood of Trump's policies being implemented, including tariffs and tax cuts[2] Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy - Future inflation pressure remains uncertain, despite expectations that Trump may exert pressure on the Federal Reserve[3] - Historical examples suggest that if inflation trends remain stable, policy rates could potentially drop to 4%[3] - Trump's immigration policies may lead to a reduction in immigration numbers, which could alleviate some domestic demand pressures[3] Group 3: Foreign Policy and Trade - Trump's trade policies introduce significant uncertainty for the global economy, particularly regarding tariffs[4] - Manufacturing is expected to return to the U.S., focusing on high-margin sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, rather than low-end manufacturing[4] Group 4: Market Reactions - The election outcome is favorable for capital markets, reducing uncertainty around economic policies[5] - Short-term positions in U.S. equities may be considered, while long-term positions remain neutral to slightly positive[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with subscription revenue exceeding half of total revenue in Q3 2024, indicating a successful transition to a subscription model [2][4] - The company is expected to release profits in the medium term due to clear cost control measures and a strong growth trajectory supported by artificial intelligence [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.07%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.39 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.72 billion yuan, a 9.73% increase year-on-year, although net profit showed a loss of 0.24 billion yuan, which was a wider loss compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Composition - Subscription revenue reached 0.90 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a significant year-on-year growth of 62.36%, accounting for 52.52% of total revenue [2] - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of the end of Q3 stood at 3.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.30% increase from the end of 2023 [2] Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 93.71%, slightly down by 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong foundation for future profit release [3] - The company has set clear cost control expectations, focusing on limiting new project investments and controlling personnel increases to enhance long-term profitability [3] Growth Opportunities - The introduction of a separately priced AI assistant is expected to create new growth avenues, with the potential for product price increases due to enhanced features [4] - The company is actively integrating its offerings in the domestic software market, particularly in document solutions, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to profit growth due to low marginal investment [4] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have net profits of -0.52 billion yuan, -0.26 billion yuan, and 0.54 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -120, -239, and 116 times [4][10]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strong oscillation trend, reflecting a continuous recovery of market confidence and maintaining a good level of market activity, with no sustained downward momentum in the indices [2][6] - The market is characterized by healthy rotation among sectors, primarily driven by restructuring and technology themes, with good participation and profitability effects [2][6] - The upcoming U.S. elections and subsequent meetings are expected to reduce market uncertainties, contributing to stable industry development, regardless of the election outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Recent market performance shows a good level of trading volume, with significant rotation among various hot sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, military industry, automotive, robotics, and consumer sectors [3][7] - There is a potential switch in market style between large and small caps, with large caps likely to outperform in November following a strong performance from small caps in October [3][7] - The core logic of sector rotation indicates that large-cap stocks may have a comparative advantage in valuation, especially as economic recovery continues [3][7] Group 3 - Three short-term investment opportunities are highlighted: technology stocks, restructuring themes, and industries expected to see a rebound in prosperity, such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors [4][8] - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, innovative technologies, consumer electronics, robotics, and new energy vehicles, is identified as a core theme for the bull market [4][8] - Restructuring themes are seen as significant catalysts for improving asset quality in underperforming companies and traditional industries [4][8]