[Table_Page] 深度分析|纺织服饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 运动鞋服行业 2024 年中报总结 品牌行业稳健发展，代工行业稳步复苏 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024H1 运动鞋服下游品牌零售行业消费需求疲软，但龙头稳健发展。 根据 wind 数据，（1）营收和净利润：2024H1 行业实现营收 715.1 亿 元，同比增长 7.7%；归母净利润 115.5 亿元，同比增长 35.2%，主要 系折扣改善导致毛利率改善，所以利润增速快于收入增速。（2）毛利 率及费用率：2024H1 行业毛利率为 53.6%（YoY+1.8pct）；2024H1 行业销售费用率为 29.9%（YoY+1.0pct）；管理费用率为 5.8% （YoY+0.4pct）。（3）营运指标：行业库存去化顺利，存货周转 98 天 （YoY-10 天），应收账款周转 37 天（YoY+1 天）。 ⚫ 2024H1 运动鞋服上游代工行业稳步复苏。根据 wind 数据，（1）营收 和利润：2024H1 营收 564.9 亿元，同比增加 9.6%；归母净利润 69.0 亿元，同比增加 46.0%，主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China TravelSky Technology (00696 HK) with a target price of HKD 14 52 per share based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [4][11] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in H1 2024 with revenue reaching RMB 4 042 billion (YoY +22 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 367 billion (YoY +13 9%) [2][6] - Domestic air travel recovery remains robust with domestic passenger volume in H1 2024 exceeding 2019 levels by 12 1% while international passenger volume recovered to 76 0% of 2019 levels [2][6] - The AIT (Airline Information Technology) business saw revenue growth of 19 8% YoY to RMB 2 265 billion in H1 2024 driven by strong domestic recovery [2][6] - Settlement and clearing business revenue surged 50 0% YoY to RMB 278 million in H1 2024 due to the recovery of international business volume [2][6] - System integration services revenue increased significantly by 111 9% YoY to RMB 680 million in H1 2024 driven by increased project completions [2][6] - Data network services revenue grew steadily by 7 3% YoY to RMB 216 million in H1 2024 supported by increased distribution information service volume [2][6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 22 4% in 2024 and 9 0% in 2025 with net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at RMB 1 932 billion and RMB 2 297 billion respectively [2][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve steadily reaching 53 0% in 2024 and 54 1% in 2025 [11][12] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 66 in 2024 and RMB 0 79 in 2025 [11][12] Business Performance - The company's AIT business continues to recover with domestic air travel showing strong growth while international travel is gradually recovering [2][6] - The settlement and clearing business is benefiting from the recovery of international air travel and the expansion of system and product services [6][8] - System integration services are experiencing significant growth due to increased project completions and the company's involvement in smart airport construction [6][8] - Data network services are maintaining steady growth with the company expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its distribution capabilities [6][9] Industry Outlook - The domestic air travel market is expected to continue its natural growth while the international market is projected to further recover in H2 2024 [7] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the aviation and tourism industry as a key player in civil aviation information technology [11]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 环保行业 2024 年中报总结 [Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |----------|------------| | | | | 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-09-03 | 攻守得当，行远自迩 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24H1 板块扣非归母净利同比增长 4.6%，投资收窄、自由现金流加速 改善。24H1 环保板块实现营收 1722 亿元（同比+5.0%）、扣非业绩 144 亿元（同比+4.6%）；24Q2 板块扣非业绩 75 亿元（同比-2.8%）。 我们注意到：固废+水务运营板块 24H1 扣非业绩达 96 亿元（同比 +9.2%），占板块比重 66%（同比+2.8pct）；而剩余其他公司逐渐出清， 24H1 扣非业绩下滑 3.3%至 49 亿元。环保板块 24H1 经营性现金流净 额同比提升 29%至 110 亿元，同时投资性现金流流出小幅收缩 2.13% 至 269.6 亿元，2024H1 板块自由现金净流出额进一 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业 2024 年中报总结 Q2 量价降幅收窄，中期受益需求预期改善及产量恢复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 业绩概览：Q2 行业盈利环比回落 8%，龙头公司普遍更稳健。上半年 各煤种价格中枢回落，加上部分公司产量受限、成本费用增加，业绩下 降。根据 Wind，我们覆盖的 26 家煤炭开采公司上半年合计归母净利 润和扣非后归母净利润分别为 812 和 810 亿元，同比分别下降 27%和 26%。其中各公司 Q2 归母净利润和扣非后归母净利润分别为 389 和 378 亿元，同比分别下降 14%和 18%，环比分别下降 8%和 12%。 ⚫ 财务分析：上半年平均净利率、ROE 降至 14%和 6%，经营性现金流 仍较充足，负债率平稳回落。（1）盈利能力：上半年煤炭板块各公司平 均毛利率、净利率和 ROE 平均分别为 30.3%、11.7%和 4.1%（剔除 负值为 30.3%、13.6%和 5.7%），同比分别下降 4.3、5.7 和 5.2 个百 分点。（2）营运能力：上半年各公司平均应收账款和存货 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Industrial enterprise profit growth has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% from January to July, reflecting a stable recovery trend [2][12] - The mechanical industry index rose by 1.59% in the last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which increased by 1.20% [2] - The engineering machinery market index (CMI) for August is 95.16, showing a year-on-year growth of 14.03% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.29%, indicating a seasonal downturn [2][18] - The report highlights several key investment themes for the second half of 2024, including recovery in engineering machinery and growth in automation and semiconductor equipment sectors [2] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - Industrial profits are showing a stable recovery, with a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, marking a continuous acceleration [12] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 12.8%, significantly above the average industrial level, contributing to overall industrial profit growth [12] 2. Midstream Data Tracking - The engineering machinery market index (CMI) indicates a recovery trend, with a year-on-year increase of 14.03% in August [18] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize, with significant opportunities in engineering machinery and automation sectors [2][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others for potential investment [2] 3. Sector-Specific Insights - The shipbuilding sector shows a mixed performance, with new orders down by 30.75% year-on-year but a cumulative increase of 46.57% in new ship orders this year [25] - The oil and gas equipment sector is experiencing a recovery, with an increase in active drilling rigs in North America [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental protection industry as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The solid waste sector is expected to see significant cash flow improvement, with dividend potential likely to be fully realized [2] - The report emphasizes the transition of the solid waste industry from a construction phase to an operational phase, highlighting the importance of investment opportunities in this sector [7] - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the equipment, solid waste, water, and recycling sectors for potential investment [2][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Mid-Year Report Perspective on Solid Waste Industry - In the first half of 2024, the solid waste sector's free cash flow is projected to turn positive for the first time, with operating cash flow increasing from 5.2 billion to 7 billion CNY year-on-year, a growth rate of +34.6% [7] - Investment cash flow is expected to narrow from -7.3 billion to -5.5 billion CNY, indicating a reduction of 1.8 billion CNY year-on-year [7] - The report highlights the core investment logic of "capital expenditure contraction, positive free cash flow, and enhanced dividend potential" [7] Section 2: Company Performance - Sanfeng Environment reported a revenue of 3.132 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of +5.08%, with a net profit of 666 million CNY, also up by +5.29% [10] - Meiyu Technology announced a stock incentive plan for 145 employees, granting 4.032 million restricted shares at a price of 15.60 CNY per share, with ambitious performance targets set for the next three years [11] - Yingke Recycling achieved a revenue of 1.435 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +26.49%, with a net profit increase of +30.75% [10] Section 3: Key Company Announcements - Haicong Chuangye plans to issue a special dividend for the first time in its history, reflecting improved cash flow and shareholder returns [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cash flow improvements and capital expenditure reductions in predicting future dividend increases for companies like Haicong Chuangye [11] Section 4: Policy and Market Tracking - The report tracks domestic and international carbon neutrality policies, highlighting significant developments in carbon trading markets and their implications for the environmental sector [12][13] - The carbon trading market is currently experiencing low transaction volumes, with the latest price recorded at 92.27 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.98% increase from the previous week [15] Section 5: Market Trends and Valuation - The environmental protection sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the GFHB sample stock PE-TTM at only 15.18 times, indicating potential for a bottom reversal [20] - The report notes that the environmental index has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices since the second half of 2021, suggesting a positive trend for the sector [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing weak demand but maintains strong profitability resilience. In Q2 2024, beer production decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a two-year and three-year CAGR of +2.1% and +0.6% respectively. The decline is attributed to pressure on dining consumption and adverse weather conditions. Major A-share beer companies reported a 1.9% decrease in revenue year-on-year in Q2 2024, with sales volume and revenue per ton showing a decline of 3.4% and an increase of 1.6% respectively [3][13][15] - The beverage sector shows significant growth differentiation, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the industry and Kang Shifu maintaining stable growth. Unlike the general growth seen in 2023, 2024 has seen a divergence in performance among companies, with Dongpeng Beverage showcasing strong alpha and Kang Shifu's beverage growth offsetting pressures from its instant noodle business [3][4] Summary by Sections Beer: Weak Demand, Strong Profitability Resilience - The overall industry review indicates weak market demand but strong industry resilience. Q2 2024 beer production from large-scale enterprises was 10.37 million kiloliters, down 4.4% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from Q2 2023 and weak dining consumption [3][13] - Sales volume in Q2 2024 showed weakness, with regional beer leaders performing better. The average price per ton continued to rise, although at a slower pace compared to previous quarters [3][24] - Cost advantages are being realized, with a slight increase in sales expense ratios. Despite the pressure on demand, profitability metrics such as gross margin and net profit margin for major A-share beer companies improved year-on-year [3][19][35] Beverage: Strong Growth Differentiation - Revenue performance is significantly differentiated, with Dongpeng Beverage leading and Kang Shifu showing stable growth. In Q2 2024, major beverage companies generally experienced negative growth in net profit, highlighting the current pressure on demand and weak channel confidence [3][4] - The cost advantages continue to be realized, but cash flow is under pressure across the sector. Most beverage companies reported expanding gross margins, although some faced rising sales expense ratios [3][4] Investment Recommendations: Focus on Two Ends - The first focus is on high growth and high valuation, with strong recommendations for Yanjing Beer and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to maintain strong performance despite market conditions [4] - The second focus is on high certainty and high dividends, recommending Kang Shifu, Qingdao Beer, and Chongqing Beer as solid investment opportunities based on dividend yield and certainty [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to continue its high profitability, with the national average pig price in August 2024 at 20.41 CNY/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.67% and a year-on-year increase of 18.43% [16][21]. - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs in August is approximately 472.16 CNY per head, which is a significant increase compared to previous months [16][21]. - The report highlights a rebound in the price of broiler chicks, with a notable increase of 27.66% month-on-month in August [25]. - The feed and animal health sectors are also showing signs of recovery, with a slight decrease in raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal, which may benefit the overall profitability of the industry [29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In August 2024, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.85 percentage points, with a decline of 8.36% compared to a 3.51% decline in the index [9][11]. Livestock Farming - The average price of pigs in August 2024 was 20.41 CNY/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 7.67% and a year-on-year increase of 18.43% [16][17]. - The average profit for self-breeding pigs was 472.16 CNY per head, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 67.58 CNY [16][21]. - The price of broiler chickens in Yantai was approximately 3.77 CNY per jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.61% [25]. Bulk Raw Materials - In August 2024, the average price of corn was 2406 CNY/ton, down 2.47% month-on-month and down 17.02% year-on-year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the livestock sector, including Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors [1][3].

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Buy" with a positive outlook for the next 12 months [2][34]. Core Insights - The communication industry showed improved operational margins in Q2, with expectations for continued recovery in the second half of the year. The industry achieved revenue of 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%, and a net profit of 127.4 billion yuan, up 7.41% year-on-year. Excluding the three major operators, other companies reported revenue of 277.3 billion yuan, a growth of 7.73%, and a net profit of 19.3 billion yuan, up 14.87% year-on-year [6][16]. - The telecom operators' revenue and profit growth are expected to stabilize in the second half of the year, despite a decline in growth rates due to external macro challenges. The data center sector, particularly leading optical module companies, is expected to continue high growth driven by increased capital expenditures from overseas tech giants [6][16]. - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in telecom operators and optical modules for long-term investment, driven by stable operations and high dividends for telecom operators, and high demand in the data communication market due to AI for optical modules [6][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The communication industry is expected to maintain a positive trend in the second half of the year, with companies adapting to complex external environments [6]. - The data center sector is experiencing a recovery, supported by domestic and international demand, particularly in AI [6][16]. - The satellite internet sector is seeing some demand increase but faces pricing pressures [6][16]. 2. Market Review - The communication sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.50% compared to a 0.17% drop in the CSI 300 index [7][8]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has seen a decline of 5%, outperforming the ChiNext index by 14.7% [8]. 3. Industry Data Update - As of the end of 2023, China has built 3.377 million 5G base stations, a net increase of 1.065 million from the previous year, representing 29.1% of total mobile base stations [16]. - In July 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 24.204 million units, with 5G smartphones accounting for 85.3% of total shipments [17]. - The number of 5G users reached 528 million by July 2024, with significant growth in the IoT sector, which now has 2.547 billion users [19][20]. 4. Recent News - IDC has raised its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2024 to 1.2 billion units, driven by demand for affordable Android devices and the integration of generative AI in high-end products [25][26]. - The largest AI computing center in China has been launched, capable of performing 690 exaflops of floating-point operations per second, supporting the training of trillion-parameter models [29].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The utility sector is experiencing stable profitability and an increase in mid-term dividends, indicating a trend towards utility-ization. In H1 2024, the sector achieved revenue of 977.2 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 19.6% [2][13][14] - The performance of thermal power and hydropower has improved, with thermal power profits increasing significantly despite a decrease in generation volume. The hydropower sector has also benefited from improved water conditions, leading to a notable increase in profits [2][23][61] - The number of companies implementing mid-term dividends has doubled from five to ten, with total cash dividends amounting to 6.36 billion yuan, an increase of 83.8% compared to the previous year [2][35] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance - The utility sector's revenue in H1 2024 was 977.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 110.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [2][13] - The thermal power sector saw a profit increase of 42.4% in H1 2024, driven by lower coal prices and improved capacity pricing [2][23][37] - The hydropower sector's net profit increased by 22.6% in H1 2024, supported by favorable water conditions [2][61] 2. Thermal Power - The thermal power sector's net assets have been steadily recovering, with significant profit improvements observed in H1 2024 [2][37] - The implementation of capacity pricing and auxiliary services has contributed to the stability of thermal power profits [2][49] 3. Hydropower - The hydropower sector's performance improved significantly due to better water conditions, with a 22.6% increase in net profit in H1 2024 [2][61] - The sector is expected to continue benefiting from improved water levels and increased generation capacity [2][72] 4. Nuclear Power - Nuclear power remains a stable growth area, with net profit performance being steady despite an increase in maintenance activities [2][85] - The marketization of nuclear power is increasing, with a slight decline in market prices expected in 2024 [2][88] 5. Green Energy - The green energy sector faced challenges in H1 2024, with a 9.1% decline in net profit due to resource variability and declining electricity prices [2][95] - Despite these challenges, the sector continues to see growth in installed capacity, with significant increases in wind and solar energy generation [2][97] 6. Gas Sector - The gas sector's revenue remained stable, with a slight increase in net profit of 15.2% in H1 2024, driven by improved margins [2][102] - The adjustment of gas prices in various regions is expected to enhance profitability for gas companies [2][106] 7. Investment Recommendations - Focus on hydropower's expected performance and the advancement of auxiliary services in the thermal power sector. Recommended stocks include Huadian International, Zhejiang Energy, and Huaneng International [2][109]