[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|机械设备 [Table_Title] 机械设备行业周报 美联储发出降息信号，外需有望迎来改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 证券研究报告 [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-08-25 ⚫ 鲍威尔表示美联储降息时机已到。根据中新社，美国联邦储备委员会 主席鲍威尔 23 日在怀俄明州举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年度经济政 策研讨会上表示，美联储降息时机已到。鲍威尔在讲话中称，高通胀是 一个全球现象，反映了人们的共同经历。美联储毫不畏惧地履行职责， 其行动表明了恢复价格稳定的决心。自 2023 年 7 月以来，美联储一直 将联邦基金利率维持在限制水平。目前，通胀的上行风险已经减弱。鲍 威尔说，政策调整的时机已经到来，政策方向已经明确。降息的时间和 节奏将取决于即将发布的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡情况。 ⚫ 市场表现分析：本周（8 月 19 日-8 月 23 日）机械行业指数（中信） 下跌 2.70%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.55%，创业板指下跌 2.80%。 ⚫ 机械动态变化：广义货币增长 6.3%，前七个月人民 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产及物管行业 24 年第 34 周周报 住建工作聚焦新模式&保交房，二手网签成交止跌 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周政策情况：多维度推进发展新模式，融资协调机制助力保交房。 中央政策方面，本周国新办"推动高质量发展"系列新闻发布会陆续 召开，8 月 21 日金融监管总局强调完善融资协调机制以更好支持保交 房工作，8 月 23 日住建部主要围绕新模式以及保交房展开。地方政策 方面，本周厦门出台购房落户政策，长沙将住房认定标准缩小为所在 区，长沙、兰州等地积极推动收储，上海拟出台房屋体检、保险、养 老金三项制度，金山区发放首张房票。 ⚫ 本周基本面情况：推盘中枢下行，二手房网签成交止跌。据 Wind 及 克尔瑞，本周 51 城新房成交面积 374.4 万方，环比上升 6.3%，同比 下降 13.2%，新房成交热度略低于去年同期，当前新房成交热度低位 维稳。二手房方面，本周 13 城网签口径成交 149.7 万方，环比下降 0.4%，同比上升 14.2%，74 城认购口径日均成交 1785 套，环 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 固废行业巡礼（一） 特许经营权到期、国补退坡问题解答 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 引言：2024 年以来固废公司因其民生属性、盈利稳健、自由现金流大 幅改善等特点而备受市场关注，光大环境、瀚蓝环境、三峰环境等 2024 年至今涨幅分别为 48%、26%、21%，显著跑赢沪深 300、上证等行 业指数。我们推出"固废行业巡礼"系列报告，旨在对市场关心的重点 问题做出研究及解答，本篇"系列一"主要聚焦"特许经营权到期"及 "国补退坡"两个问题。 ⚫ 特许经营权到期问题：早期项目仅占比 5%以内，政策&实践案例均提 供了延期至 40 年的可能。固废项目大多采用特许经营权模式，项目期 限大多为 25~30 年，市场普遍担心到期后项目会移交给政府因而影响 上市公司的资产规模、利润体量。我们梳理了固废上市公司在运产能情 况，2010 年及以前投运的项目占公司总在运产能的比重约为 5%（千 吨左右），假设 25 年的经营期限，即 2035 年前项目到期的影响有限。 从政策指引来看，2024 年特许经营权新规发布，政策指引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a positive growth in revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024, with year-on-year increases of 1.8%, 3.7%, and 0.9% respectively. Although there was a slight decline in growth rates compared to the first quarter of 2024, the overall performance remains stable [2][3]. - Key highlights include a significant improvement in deposit costs, with a net interest margin of 1.86% and a reduction in deposit cost rate by 18 basis points compared to the full year of 2023. The company also experienced steady asset growth, with total assets increasing by 4.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company's internal capital growth rate exceeds the growth rate of risk-weighted assets, suggesting sustainability in dividend payouts and high dividend value [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 1.8%, PPOP growth of 3.7%, and a net profit growth of 0.9% compared to the previous year. The growth rates for revenue and PPOP showed a decline of 2.4 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points respectively from the first quarter of 2024, while net profit growth turned positive with an increase of 4.0 percentage points [2][3][11]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 1.86%, with a marginal decline of only 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating stabilization [2][3][11]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of the first half of 2024 was 1.08%, showing a slight increase of 1 basis point from the end of the first quarter. The company also reported a rise in the restructured loan ratio and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio [3][11][19]. Growth and Expansion - The company’s total assets grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with risk-weighted assets increasing by 5.5%. The internal capital growth rate was reported at 7.7%, which is higher than the growth rate of risk-weighted assets, indicating a robust capital position [2][3][11]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 3.87% and 3.86% for the years 2024 and 2025 respectively, with expected earnings per share of 3.65 and 3.80 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.60X and 4.42X for 2024 and 2025 respectively [2][3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 74.90 CNY per share, corresponding to a 24-year PE of 25X [1][2] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with both domestic and international markets contributing to growth [1] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 1.334 billion CNY, a YoY increase of 16.28%, driven by increased product sales in overseas markets [1] - Domestic market revenue was approximately 706 million CNY (YoY +1.73%), while international market revenue reached 624 million CNY (YoY +39.72%) [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million CNY, a YoY increase of 17.47%, with a gross margin of 67.94% (YoY +4.2pp) [1] - The company's overall expense ratio has been optimized, with sales expenses at 22.73% (YoY +0.68pp), management expenses at 12.43% (YoY -0.85pp), and R&D expenses at 5.22% (YoY -0.77pp) [1] Overseas Expansion and Cost Efficiency - The company has made significant progress in overseas construction, including the establishment of a European regional headquarters and the acquisition of channel companies in Portugal and Switzerland [1] - The US subsidiary has strengthened its local sales team, leading to a significant improvement in profits [1] - The company has set up an Australian office and is progressing with the construction of a production base in Thailand, expected to be operational by 2026 [1] - Operational improvements focus on "lean management efficiency, resource integration optimization, and process innovation cost reduction" to achieve sustainable profit growth [1] Financial Projections - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.04 CNY/share, 3.83 CNY/share, and 4.89 CNY/share, respectively [1] - Revenue growth is expected to be 19.2% in 2024, 22.9% in 2025, and 23.7% in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow by 17.6% in 2024, 25.8% in 2025, and 27.7% in 2026 [3] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leader in the digestive endoscopy consumables sector, with a solid foundation in existing products and significant potential in the development of visualization products [1] - The recent easing of medical device centralized procurement policies has alleviated previous valuation pressures [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.21 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 8.74 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.555 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 809 million CNY, up 11.72% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 801 million CNY, an increase of 18.55% [3][4]. - The company has a rich reserve of IP resources and game products, with upcoming titles expected to contribute to revenue growth. Notable upcoming games include "Douluo Dalu: Zhu Xie Chuan Shuo" and "About My Reincarnation as a Slime: New World" [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue, which reached 126 million CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 334.95% [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.396 billion CNY, 6.478 billion CNY, and 7.334 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 20.1%, and 13.2% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.753 billion CNY, 2.224 billion CNY, and 2.538 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 19.9%, 26.9%, and 14.1% respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.04 CNY per share based on a 1.50x PB valuation for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 1.07 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, close to the upper limit of its previous profit forecast, with a year-on-year increase of 83.1% [2][10]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 14 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, driven by improved operational performance and new power generation capacity coming online [2][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from stable profitability in thermal power generation and increased earnings potential from new installed capacity [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.07 billion CNY, up 83.1% year-on-year [2][10]. - The operating cash flow significantly improved, reaching 2.576 billion CNY, a 319% increase year-on-year, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and revenue from newly commissioned power plants [2][17]. 2. Revenue and Profitability - The company's electricity revenue grew by 28% year-on-year, with a gross margin recovery to 13.7% [2][20]. - The gross profit from electricity operations was 1.528 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase in profitability due to lower coal costs [20][26]. 3. Installed Capacity and Future Prospects - As of the first half of 2024, the company had 12.28 GW of installed capacity, with additional coal-fired power plants expected to come online by the end of 2024, potentially increasing equity capacity by 2.0 GW [2][22]. - The company aims to expand its renewable energy portfolio, targeting 4 GW of new energy capacity by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][29]. 4. Investment and Financial Metrics - The company forecasts net profits of 2.116 billion CNY, 2.432 billion CNY, and 2.750 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.32, 1.20, and 1.09 [2][3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve to 14.0% by 2024, reflecting the company's enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [3][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.8% and a new business value (NBV) growth of 11% [2][20]. - The NBV growth was supported by strong savings demand from residents and the favorable impact of the exit of 3% guaranteed rate products, despite a high base from the previous year [2][11]. - The company's embedded value (EV) increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by positive operational and investment variances [2][18]. - The net profit growth turned positive, with a significant recovery in operational profit margins [20][21]. - The agent workforce increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first positive growth in recent years [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Value: Comprehensive Growth Driven by Volume and Price - The company's NBV for the first half of 2024 was CNY 22.32 billion, up 11% year-on-year, benefiting from a decline in commission rates and increased savings demand [11][18]. - The new business value margin (NBVM) reached 24.2%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, with individual insurance and bancassurance channels showing growth rates of 10.8% and 17.3%, respectively [11][16]. 2. Net Profit: Comprehensive Recovery in Performance Indicators - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 was CNY 74.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [20]. - The operational profit showed a decline of only 0.6%, a significant improvement compared to previous quarters [21]. 3. Life Insurance: Sustained Upward Trend - The new single premium for life insurance in the first half of 2024 was CNY 130.14 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year, but remained stable against a high base from the previous year [27][28]. - The agent workforce reached 340,000, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, but showing signs of stabilization [30]. 4. Property and Casualty Insurance: Continuous Loss Control - The total premium for property and casualty insurance was CNY 160.4 billion, up 4.1% year-on-year, with stable growth in auto insurance [36][40]. - The combined ratio improved to 97.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management [40][41]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be CNY 5.1, CNY 5.8, and CNY 6.4, respectively, with a valuation of 0.7X PEV for A shares and 0.6X PEV for H shares, leading to a target price of CNY 56.5 per share for A shares [2][42].

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|农林牧渔 2024 年 8 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 宠物行业专题五：国产宠粮品牌力正在崛起，探析国产赶超路径 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 钱浩 | 分析师： | 周舒玥 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050002 | | | SFC CE.no: BND274 | | | | | 021-38003634 | | 021-38003537 | | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | | zhoushuyue@gf.com.cn | 请注意，周舒玥并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 我国宠粮市场高度分散，国产品牌力正在崛起 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 满 帮 集 团 （YMM） 交易抽佣持续高增，履约订单数&货主 MAU 创新高 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：满帮集团发布 24Q2 业绩。24Q2，公司实现营收 27.64 亿元， YoY+34.1%，高于业绩指引 26.5~27.2 亿元的上沿，主要由于交易交 易服务收入的显著增长。分业务看：（1）货运匹配服务收入 23.29 亿 元，同增 34.4%。其中：货运经纪收入 11.65 亿元，YoY+22.7%；信 息发布收入 2.12 亿元，YoY+5.6%；交易服务收入 9.52 亿元， YoY+63.4%，继续保持高增速，主要由订单量、抽佣覆盖率及单均抽 佣的增长驱动。（2）增值服务收入 4.36 亿元，同增 32%。 ⚫ 利润端，24Q2 毛利率 52.5%，同比下降 0.2pct，环比下降 2.0pct。费 用率优化带来净利率提升。24Q2，销售费用 3.7 亿元，销售费用率 13.5%，同比下降 0.2pct，环比下降 1.5pct；管理费用率及研发费用率 同比环比都明显优化。24Q2，归母净利 8.2 亿元 ...