[Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 三中全会定调房地产，淡季建材景气弱势震荡 报告日期 2024-07-28 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 目前建材基本面受地产景气影响仍在左侧、基建需求也一般，需等待地 产企稳，但部分优质龙头企业仍表现出较强的经营韧性，如二手房和存 量房翻新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著 的超额利润。建议积极关注水泥龙头底部配置机会，同时继续关注基本 面韧性强的零售建材，和部分结构性景气赛道（玻纤、出海、药玻等）。 ⚫ 消费建材：地产仍在寻底，龙头公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳 定性好（受益存量房需求）、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质 细分龙头中长期成长空间仍然很大。2024 年地产仍在寻底，新开工面 积预计回落至中期较低水平，地产政策转变有望先带来销售面积好转； 核心龙头公司盈利领先地产行业实现有韧性的复苏。看好三棵树、兔宝 宝、北新建材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹，关注坚朗 五金、箭牌家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 ⚫ 水泥：淡季需求疲软，价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, including China State Construction, China Railway, and China Communications Construction [3][34]. Core Insights - As of July 23, 2024, public funds have slightly increased their holdings in the construction sector, with the SW construction sector's holding ratio rising to 0.52%, up 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][11]. - The report highlights an increase in public fund holdings in sub-sectors such as steel structures, infrastructure, and international engineering, while the housing construction sector saw a decrease in holdings [2][13]. - Notable companies with increased fund holdings include China State Construction, Honglu Steel Structure, and China Railway, with significant increases in holdings for Honglu Steel Structure and Tunnel Shares [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings in the Construction Industry - The overall fund holding ratio in the construction and decoration industry remains low, with a slight increase in Q2 2024. The total market value of the SW construction sector is reported at 1.6889 trillion CNY, with public fund holdings amounting to 8.987 billion CNY [11][27]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - Public funds have increased their holdings in steel structures and infrastructure, with the holding ratios for these sectors at 0.077% and 0.135%, respectively. Conversely, the housing construction sector's holding ratio decreased to 0.177% [2][16][18]. - The report notes significant increases in holdings for specific companies, such as Honglu Steel Structure, which saw a 195.4% increase in shares held [2][32]. 3. Company-Specific Insights - The top companies by public fund holdings include China State Construction, Honglu Steel Structure, and China Railway, with respective holdings of 5.71 billion shares, 0.78 billion shares, and 1.88 billion shares [30][34]. - The report identifies the largest increases in holdings for companies like China Steel International and Tunnel Shares, with increases of 644.4% and 234.3%, respectively [30][32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprise reforms, power sector reforms, and effective demand under fiscal reforms. Key companies to watch include China State Construction, China Railway, and China Communications Construction [35].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业 基本金属价格有望止跌回升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 基本金属：以旧换新支撑内需改善，基本金属价格有望止跌回升。美 联储年内降息预期较强，但外需走弱压力较大，以旧换新政策支撑内需 改善，铜矿、阴极铜供给紧张程度明显缓解，基本金属价格明显回调 后，前期积压需求或释放，预计基本金属价格有望止跌回升。建议关 注：洛阳钼业（A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝业（A+H）、云铝 股份、天山铝业等。 钢铁：钢价及成本全面下跌，盈利面大幅下降，关注供给约束。供给 端，高炉开工环比平稳，钢厂盈利率大幅下降，铁水供给约束明显。需 求端，线螺采购环比大幅回落。成本端，预计低盈利率继续压制原料采 购需求。价利方面，供需格局短期弱化，购销差价预期偏弱，供给约束 预期提升，预计短期钢价震荡为主。建议关注：宝钢股份、华菱钢铁、 久立特材、抚顺特钢等。 贵金属：美联储降息兑现情绪继续发酵，建议把握金价逢低布局机会。 据 Wind，本周公布的美国 6 月核心 PCE 同比符合预期，且为 2021 年 3 月以来最 ...

[Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业 纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 7.22-7.26 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 纺织服装行业周观点。首先，奥运会开幕，建议关注运动鞋服行业龙头 公司短期交易性机会，包括安踏体育、李宁、特步国际、361 度、比音 勒芬等。其次，上游纺织制造板块建议关注：短期建议关注二季度受汇 兑影响较小，业绩预计有望继续保持较快增长，且长期成长空间大的辅 料和箱包行业龙头公司伟星股份和开润股份。中期建议关注毛纺、色纺 纱等行业龙头公司新澳股份、百隆东方，预计今年业绩表现前低后高， 下半年有望加速向上。部分二季度受上年同期汇兑收益扰动的运动鞋 服代工、色织布等行业龙头公司，三季度预计业绩有望恢复较快增长， 包括华利集团、健盛集团、鲁泰 A 等。涉及新材料业务的台华新材、 南山智尚、恒辉安防，锦纶下游需求景气度高，超高分子量聚乙烯纤维 受益出口政策明朗化。最后，下游服装家纺板块建议关注：顺应消费两 极分化趋势，业绩具备一定韧性的高端及性价比定位龙头公司，包括海 澜之家、富安娜、森马服饰、波司登、中国利郎等。 ⚫ 轻工制造行业周观点。必选消费品种经济敏感度低、具备成长空间。 ...

[Table_Title] 非银金融行业 稳增长发力改善市场预期，建议关注板块估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：证监会谋划进一步全面深化资本市场改革开放，稳增长举措提 振市场信心。据 wind，本周沪深两市成交额日均 0.65 万亿元（环比 下跌 2.47%），沪深两融余额 14342.75 亿元（环比下跌 0.8%）。7 月 26 日，证监会党委书记、主席吴清近日召开专题座谈会并发表讲 话，与 10 家在华外资证券基金期货机构、合格境外机构投资者（QFII） 等代表深入交流，就中国资本市场下一步全面深化改革提出了诸多建 设性意见，内容主要涵盖"投融资协调发展"、"活跃并购重组市场"、"发 展私募股权创投市场"以及"扩大资本市场开放"，旨在推动中国资本市 场的全面深化改革、提高市场活跃度、吸引长期资本，并进一步提升 市场的国际化水平。7 月 25 日，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于加力 支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》，本轮"以旧换新" 有望在短期内助力提振内需，提振市场信心。当前证券公司业绩及监 管压力期逐渐缓释，稳增长举措提振市场信心，证券行业估值和基金 持仓双低 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - Haitong Development has been expanding its external chartering business, transitioning from a model reliant on heavy asset investment to a more flexible and market-oriented approach, aiming to build a robust service network [5][9] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1.705 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41 billion yuan from 2022, primarily due to a slowdown in global economic growth and geopolitical impacts [9] - The company has been actively increasing its fleet, with a total controlled capacity of 3.39 million deadweight tons as of June 2024, including 41 self-owned bulk carriers and 21 long-term chartered vessels [6][9] Summary by Sections Company Ownership and Structure - Haitong Development is primarily controlled by natural persons, with a total of 22.28% held by other companies. The largest shareholder, Zeng Erbin, holds 59.08% of the shares directly and has a total beneficial ownership of 64.42% through affiliated companies [3][4] Fleet and Operations - The company's fleet consists of self-owned vessels, light chartered vessels, and externally chartered vessels. As of mid-2024, the company has 19 self-owned bulk carriers and 30 long-term chartered vessels, with a total capacity of 2.82 million deadweight tons [5][6] - The company has been focusing on expanding its external chartering business to enhance operational flexibility and market responsiveness [7][9] Financial Performance - The company's operating costs reached 1.456 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 18.14% year-on-year, driven by the expansion of external chartering operations [9] - The average daily TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for Haitong Development reached $12,888 in 2023, exceeding the market average by approximately 17.2% [26] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The report indicates that the supply conditions in the dry bulk shipping market are gradually improving, with a low order book for Handymax vessels, which is expected to limit future supply [44][45] - The development of the West Simandou iron ore project is anticipated to boost demand for shipping services, with significant export volumes expected starting in 2025 [61][64] - The report highlights that the dry bulk shipping market is sensitive to interest rate changes, with potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve likely to stimulate demand [65][68]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2024 年第 30 期） | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-07-28 | 电煤需求延续季节性回升，Q2 行业规模以上企业盈利稳健 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 近期市场动态：港口动力煤价小幅回升，淡季焦煤产业链表现弱势。 根据汾渭能源，动力煤方面，CCI5500 大卡煤价 7 月 26 日最新报价 856 元/吨，周环比上涨 3 元/吨。年度长协 7 月港口 5500 大卡煤价为 700 元/吨，环比持平。本周港口煤价小幅回升，产地煤价总体略有下 滑，7 月中旬以来，南方大部分地区持续高温，电厂日耗回升较快，但 本周南方地区受台风天气影响，西南、华中等地水电高发，对火电有一 定抑制，叠加库存总体充足、长协煤和进口煤的补充，下游采购需求还 未明显释放。预计随着气温继续升高，以及贸易商和电厂库存消耗，煤 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 15.28 CNY and a fair value of 23.37 CNY per share [1]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations. The revenue reached 14 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% [1]. - The operating cash flow was 4.5 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 809% [1]. - The rise in profits is primarily attributed to the increase in prices of main products, with copper, lead, and zinc prices rising by 15%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1]. - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.56, 1.66, and 1.74 CNY per share, respectively, with a target PE of 15 times for 2024, corresponding to a fair value of 23.37 CNY per share [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 42.748 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.2%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 49.857 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 2.789 billion CNY, with a decline of 18.4%, while the forecast for 2024 is 3.712 billion CNY, indicating a growth of 33.1% [4]. - The company's EBITDA for 2023 was 7.637 billion CNY, with projections of 9.055 billion CNY for 2024 [4]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is 60.14%, slightly up from the previous quarter [1].

Xml [Table_Title] 家用电器行业 中央加力支持以旧换新，家电补贴力度超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 7 月 25 日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设备 更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》，将统筹安排 3000 亿元左右超 长期特别国债资金，用于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。 ⚫ 家电以旧换新明确 8 类产品，补贴额度 15%~20%，支持力度超预期。 （1）覆盖品类：包括冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器、家 用灶具、吸油烟机等 8 类产品，而上轮补贴只包括空调、冰箱、洗衣 机、电视。（2）补贴力度：一级/二级能效产品分别补贴售价 20%/15%， 单件产品补贴上限 2000 元，支持力度明显大于上轮政策期 5%~10% 的水平。作为参考，奥维云网数据显示 2023 年我国空调、冰箱、洗衣 机、彩电、热水器线下市场一级能效销量占比分别为 84.1%、75.7%、 54.7%、3.5%、28.9%。 ⚫ 三大白电排产数据：2024 年 8 月空冰洗排产总量同比+1.1%。根据产 业在线数据，8 月空冰洗排产总量共计 2672 万台，较去年同期 ...

[Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 无人环卫车市场或可达千亿，废电回收等再获资金支持 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 建议关注：（1）设备类：聚光科技、美埃科技、景津装备等；（2）固 废：瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境；（3）水务：北控水务 集团、洪城环境等；（4）再生资源：赛恩斯、朗坤环境等。 ⚫ 无人环卫车热潮打响，对行业模式的影响深远。伴随"萝卜快跑"、 "robotaxi"等话题热议，无人驾驶环卫车亦引发市场关注，并且环卫 作业低速、路线固定等特征让其具备较早应用推广可能，7 月 1 日文远 知行 WeRide 宣布正式落地东莞市首个 L4 级公开道路无人环卫商业 化项目，7 月 11 日广环投与赛特智能签订战略合作协议。我们认为"环 卫自动化"趋势更多是对于行业商业模式的优化：一方面，环卫公司已 在尝试装备与无人化结合，他们仍是实际环卫服务运行的重要载体；另 一方面，固废公司（光大环境、瀚蓝环境、三峰环境等）有望摆脱劳动 密集型的管理边际，加速"焚烧+"一体化布局进程。 ⚫ 安排 3000 亿元超长期国债资金，设备更新、以旧换新力度加大。本周 《关于加力支持大规模设 ...