Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [传Table媒_Title行] 业 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 ChatGPT 及豆包流量增长，关注模型能力提升对产品的催化 报告日期 2024-06-16 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_市Pic场Quo表te] 现 ⚫ 国内AI动态跟踪：豆包下载量攀升。根据SimilarWeb，上周（6月3 3% 日- 6 月 9 日）国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi -6%06/23 08/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 539.47 万次，环比下降 5.34%；文心一言 383.14 万次，环比下降 -15% -25% 11.19%；通义千问 174.55 万次，环比下降 10.43%；豆包 127.49 万 -34% 次，环比下降 1.01%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，豆包下载量环 -43% 比大幅增长，上周下载量 168.06 万次，环比增长 65.04%；智谱清言 传媒 沪深300 5.11万次，环比提升4.36%；其余App下载量环比 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电子 证券研究报告 [电Table_子Title] 行业 2024 年中期策略 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 AI 的裂变时刻，算、连、存踏浪而行 报告日期 2024-06-16 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ AI的裂变时刻，英伟达GB200新产品周期开启。全球AI的裂变时刻， 4% 产业链日新月异百花齐放。Scaling Law规模定律下，大模型参数量、 -4%06/23 08/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 06/24 -11% 数据、算力呈现指数级增长。英伟达的 GPU 产品为算力核心，在 AI -19% 加速芯片市场一马当先。服务器ODM、PCB、网络交换机、存储等产 -26% 业链核心环节龙头厂商踏浪而行，伴随大客户和终端需求共同成长。 -34% 电子 沪深300 北美云厂商CAPEX持续上修，训练、推理需求驱动算力持续高增长。 英伟达发布全新Blackwell架构GPU，GB200超级芯片大幅提升性能 及能耗表现，开启新一轮产品周期。 [分Ta析ble师 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [金Table_属Title] 及金属新材料行业 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 把握黄金阶段性低点 报告日期 2024-06-16 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  基本金属：实际需求与价格的偏差逐步减小，预计基本金属价格震荡。 10% 美国通胀有所缓和，提升美联储年内降息概率。短期铜矿新投产量较 3% 小，铜矿、阴极铜供给均仍紧张，随实体需求改善、商品价格回调，需 -4%06/23 08/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 -10% 求与价格的偏差逐步减小，预计下周基本金属价格震荡，前期股票的估 -17% 值回调逐步提升股票配置价值。建议关注：紫金矿业、洛阳钼业（A+H）、 -24% 西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝业（A+H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 有色金属 沪深300  钢铁：需求回落，钢价、成本及盈利率承压下行。供给端，高炉开工环 比提升，钢厂盈利率再次走弱有望压制铁水供给。需求端，线螺采购环 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or]宫 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [保Table_险Title] Ⅱ行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 5 月保费点评-产寿险保费整体增长提速 报告日期 2024-06-16 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  居民储蓄意愿持续高位及部分代理人宣导预定利率下调等综合因素推 10% 动寿险保费增长提速。据月度保费公告数据显示，1-5 月平安/国寿/新 3% -4%06/23 08/23 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 华/太保寿险原保费增速分别为3.3%/4.3%/-10.9%/-2.1%，较1-4月的 -10% 2.1%/3.9%/-11.7%/-3.5%继续改善。受银保渠道报行合一实施和去年 -17% 同期旧产品退市导致的高基数影响，部分上市险企的累计保费增速仍 -24% 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 未转正，但是当前居民储蓄意愿持续高位，叠加代理人改革成效的持 续释放，同时部分代理人在自发宣导预定利率下调推动保费当期兑现， 累计保费增速持续改善优于预期。其中国寿保费增速维持同业领先地 [ ...

[TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------| | | [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 | 买入 | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 短期猪价震荡难改上行趋势，继续看好养殖产业链机会 | 报告日期 | 2024-06-16 | [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： 畜禽养殖：据新牧网，6 月 14 日，全国生猪出栏均价约 18.61 元/公斤， 环比上周下跌 0.69%，同比上涨 32.64%。本周猪价先涨后跌，周内猪 价达到年内高点 19.02 元/公斤，受制于天气转热及端午节后消费需求 减少，短期猪价出现正常回落。截至 1 季度末，统计局公布能繁母猪存 栏量约 3992 万头，同比下降 7.3%；全国生猪存栏量为 40850 万头， 同比下降 5.2%，季度环比下降 5.9%，当前生猪存栏处于 21 年以来最 低水平。前期产能去化效应正在逐步显现，随着后续供给改善及需求季 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 国[Table防_Title军] 工行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 大飞机进展加速&供应链出海，重视第二曲线增量 报告日期 2024-06-16 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 孟祥杰 SAC 执证号：S0260521040002  重视大飞机进展加速和航空供应链供应短缺为国内航空航发企业带来 SFC CE No. BRF275 的第二曲线增量。近期大飞机各项进展持续推进。据“上海发布”公 010-59136693 众号，6月14日东航C919机型将开启第四条商业定期航线——上海 mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn 虹桥往返广州白云。据东方财富网，工业和信息化部、国家自然科学 分析师： 吴坤其 基金委员会 6 月 14 日签署合作协议，共同设立大飞机基础研究联合 SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 基金。基金聚焦大飞机领域国家重大战略需求，围绕大飞机长期面临 SFC CE No. BRT139 的安全可靠、绿色环保、智能高效、经济便 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药生物 证券研究报告 [医Table_药Title] 生物行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 原料药价格底部企稳，关注新品放量 报告日期 2024-06-15 核心[T 观able 点_Sum ：mary] 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] ⚫ 原料药价格底部企稳。根据国家统计局数据，化学药品原料药制造当 4% 月同比PPI值在2023年1月降至100以下（2023M1数据为99.60， -2%06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 上年同月=100），价格端下行主要由于下游客户去库存导致。2023 年 -7% 全年，原料药制造当月同比PPI均在100以下，2023M5-M6原料药 -13% PPI 达到最低，为 94.4。2024M4，原料药 PPI 为 95.9，较 2024M3 -19% 的95.7基本持平，整体原料药价格体系趋于底部企稳态势。 -25% ⚫ 特色原料药产品价格有一定波动。高血压类产品，受到2018年缬沙坦 医药生物 沪深300 基因毒杂质事件影响，价格波动较大，目前大多产品处 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, expecting the stock price to outperform the market by more than 10% within the next 12 months [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the biomass resource regeneration industry, with a strong focus on both front-end kitchen waste treatment and back-end biodiesel production, which provides a stable profit base even during industry downturns [30][69]. - The company has seen a significant increase in its processing capacity, with kitchen waste treatment capacity growing from 2,537 tons/day in 2021 to 3,541 tons/day in 2023, and is expected to double to 7,071 tons/day by 2026 [11][79]. - The company is also venturing into synthetic biology, particularly in the production of human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs), which is expected to open new revenue streams [30][52]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 1,819 million in 2022 to 1,753 million in 2023, before rebounding to 2,175 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.1% [22]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 243 million in 2022 to 179 million in 2023, but is forecasted to recover to 250 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 39.5% [22]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to decrease from 477 million in 2022 to 422 million in 2023, with a subsequent increase to 502 million in 2024 [22]. Business Layout - The company operates a comprehensive business model that integrates kitchen waste treatment and biodiesel production, which enhances operational efficiency and reduces costs [30][71]. - The front-end waste treatment operations provide a stable income source through government payments, which helps buffer against fluctuations in biodiesel prices [73]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage in biodiesel production, with gross margins ranging from 19.02% to 42.73% from 2018 to 2022, outperforming industry peers [45][62]. Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its existing projects, such as increasing the processing capacity of the Guangzhou biomass resource regeneration center from 2,040 tons/day to 3,100 tons/day [79]. - New projects, including a 2,100 tons/day biomass waste resource recovery center in Tongzhou, Beijing, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2025 [79].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 68.64 CNY per share based on a 18x PE valuation for 2024 [4][63]. Core Insights - The company is a well-known manufacturer in the household solar storage market, focusing on the European market. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 4.473 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.065 billion CNY, down 6.12% year-on-year [2][18]. - The European market is the largest for the company, with significant revenue contributions from grid-connected inverters, storage inverters, and storage batteries [2][22]. - New products are being developed to meet the needs of commercial storage, with emerging markets expected to bring additional business growth [2][10]. - The company has a strong brand recognition and channel strength, with a significant number of distributors in Europe [2][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Product Development - The company has established a strong presence in the European household solar storage market and is recognized as one of the early entrants in this field [10]. - Its product matrix includes solar storage inverters, storage batteries, and grid-connected inverters, with ongoing improvements to adapt to new market demands [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts EPS of 3.81, 5.45, and 5.76 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected revenue of 4.278 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [3][59]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 39.90%, with an increase in operating expenses due to market investments and personnel costs [19][20]. 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Management - The company is nearing the end of its inventory destocking phase, with a focus on improving brand recognition and channel capabilities [2][23]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating improved operational efficiency [28]. 4. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies potential growth in the commercial storage sector, driven by new product launches and favorable market conditions in emerging markets [2][31]. - The company is actively developing high-power storage inverters and large-capacity storage batteries to cater to commercial needs [2][47]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from both domestic and international players in the solar storage market, necessitating continuous innovation and market adaptation [2][68]. - The report notes the importance of maintaining competitive pricing and product differentiation to sustain market share [30][31].

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [【Table_T广itle] 发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 太 平 [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 8.55港元 （00966.HK） 合理价值 13.51港元 报告日期 2024-06-14 资负筑底，否极泰来 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 12% 3%  中国太平的前身“中保国际”于2000年在港交所上市，是我国首家境 -6%06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 外上市保险公司。回顾公司战略及经营情况，两个三年战略的辉煌期、 -14% 行业冲击和管理层频繁变更的低谷期及改革期。当前公司估值较低， -23% -32% 较同业有提升空间，改革效果持续释放，我们认为公司有望否极泰来。 中国太平 恒生指数  寿险业务：改革持续深化推动业绩领先同业。公司于1937年开设人寿 保险部，1956 年暂停国内业务，2001 年境内复业，2009-2023 年保 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 刘淇 费CAGR为1 ...